Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].

责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持中国铝业（02600）179.9814万股，每股作价13.4546 港元，总金额约为2421.58万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.99亿股，最新持股比例为5.03%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持中国铝业（02600）179.9814万股，每股作价13.4546 港元，总金额约为2421.58万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.99亿股，最新持股比例为5.03%。 ...

Core Insights - The northbound trading of the Stock Connect has shown significant enthusiasm from foreign capital, with a total trading volume exceeding 200 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high and reflecting strong confidence in the long-term investment value of the Chinese capital market [1][5] Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q4 2025, northbound funds held a total of 4,014 securities, with a stable overall holding scale [1] - The holdings of foreign capital exhibit a "head concentration" feature, with over 213 stocks having more than 100 million shares held, and 37 stocks exceeding 500 million shares [1] - Notable stocks favored by northbound funds include JD.com, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, with holdings exceeding 1 billion shares, primarily in low-valuation or high-dividend sectors [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, northbound funds engaged in significant portfolio adjustments, increasing holdings in over 1,600 stocks, with more than 1,000 stocks seeing an increase of over 1 million shares [2] - The top ten stocks with the largest increases in holdings included China Aluminum, Weichai Power, and others, each with increases exceeding 100 million shares [2][4] - The trading activity of northbound funds has notably increased, with a daily trading volume exceeding 300 billion yuan for four consecutive trading days, indicating a strong return of foreign capital to A-shares [4] Group 3: Long-term Trends - Since the establishment of the Stock Connect mechanism, the cumulative trading volume of northbound funds has surpassed 200 trillion yuan, with 2025's total trading volume reaching 50.33 trillion yuan, a growth of over 40% compared to 2024 [5] - The significant increase in trading volume and the focus on bank and resource stocks in Q4 2025 signal multiple positive trends, including sustained foreign interest in Chinese assets and a balanced investment strategy [5] - The ongoing optimization of capital market systems and deepening of openness are expected to lead to more normalized and rational flows of northbound funds, providing stable liquidity support for the A-share market [5]

天眼查资料显示，中铝材料应用研究院有限公司，成立于2017年，位于北京市，是一家以从事研究和试 验发展为主的企业。企业注册资本7000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中铝材料应用研究院有限公 司参与招投标项目129次，专利信息532条，此外企业还拥有行政许可12个。 重庆国创轻合金研究院有限公司，成立于2021年，位于重庆市，是一家以从事研究和试验发展为主的企 业。企业注册资本12000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，重庆国创轻合金研究院有限公司参与招投 标项目97次，财产线索方面有商标信息1条，专利信息70条，此外企业还拥有行政许可9个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中铝材料应用研究院有限公司;重庆国创轻合金研究院有限公司;中国铝业集 团高端制造股份有限公司申请一项名为"铝合金中富Fe相形貌和尺寸测定方法、铝合金的生产方法"的专 利，公开号CN121298807A，申请日期为2025年9月。 中国铝业集团高端制造股份有限公司，成立于2019年，位于重庆市，是一家以从事有色金属冶炼和压延 加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本173190.14万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国铝业集团高端制 造股份有限公司共对外投资了 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has increased its stake in China Aluminum (601600)(02600) by acquiring 1,799,814 shares at a price of HKD 13.4546 per share, totaling approximately HKD 24.2158 million, raising its total holdings to about 199 million shares, which represents a 5.03% ownership stake [1] Summary by Category - **Share Acquisition** - Morgan Stanley purchased 1,799,814 shares of China Aluminum at HKD 13.4546 each [1] - The total investment amounted to approximately HKD 24.2158 million [1] - **Ownership Stake** - Following the acquisition, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in China Aluminum is approximately 199 million shares [1] - The new ownership percentage stands at 5.03% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持中国铝业(02600)179.9814万股， 每股作价13.4546港元，总金额约为2421.58万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.99亿股，最新持股比例 为5.03%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant surge, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a historical high and attracting substantial capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF saw an intraday price increase of over 3.5%, setting a new historical high [1] - The ETF has received a net subscription of 55.8 million units, with a total capital inflow of 194 million yuan over the past five days, and 279 million yuan over the last ten days [1] - The top-performing stocks within the ETF include Hai Liang Co. (10.02% increase), Xiamen Tungsten (10.00% increase), and Yunnan Pig Industry (10.01% increase) [2] Group 2: Commodity Price Trends - Recent price increases have been noted in various minor metal products, particularly tungsten, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) priced at 485,000 yuan/ton, a 5.4% increase week-on-week, and tungsten powder at 1,130 yuan/kg, a 6.5% increase week-on-week [2] - Analysts indicate that the tungsten market is supported by supply constraints due to lower ore grades, controlled mining volumes, and sellers' reluctance to sell, alongside global demand for strategic resources [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Current market conditions are characterized by a "slump phase" in the fifth Kondratiev wave cycle, with expectations that commodities will benefit as the previous technology cycle peaks and a new one is still developing [3] - The U.S. economy faces recession pressures, which may lead to a reevaluation of commodities like gold and copper as global assets, potentially increasing their valuations [3] - In a context of loose liquidity and frequent supply disruptions, copper, aluminum, gold, and strategic metals are expected to maintain upward trends through 2026 [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance [4] - Notable stocks in the commercial aerospace sector, such as Hai Liang Co., Yunnan Zhiye, and Xiamen Tungsten, have shown significant gains, with some reaching their daily limit [5]

Summary of Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK) - **Industry**: Aluminum production and mining - **Core Competitiveness**: Ownership of stable and reliable bauxite resources, ensuring sustainable development. As of 2024, it is the world's largest alumina and primary aluminum producer by capacity [23][24]. Key Financial Updates - **Net Profit Forecast**: Revised for 2025E/26E/27E by +2%/+4%/+7% to Rmb14.0 billion, Rmb19.1 billion, and Rmb21.9 billion respectively, driven by higher aluminum price forecasts [1][2]. - **Target Price (TP)**: Increased to HK$15.94 from HK$12.41, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.81x for 2026E, reflecting a stronger-than-historical-average return on equity (ROE) [3][25]. - **Expected Returns**: Anticipated share price increase of 18.4% and a total return of 23.0%, including a dividend yield of 4.6% [4]. Earnings Summary - **2023A**: Net Profit of Rmb6.717 billion, EPS of Rmb0.391 - **2024A**: Net Profit of Rmb12.400 billion, EPS of Rmb0.723 - **2025E**: Net Profit of Rmb14.011 billion, EPS of Rmb0.817 - **2026E**: Net Profit of Rmb19.070 billion, EPS of Rmb1.112 - **2027E**: Net Profit of Rmb21.876 billion, EPS of Rmb1.275 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - **Aluminum Prices**: Expected to remain high due to supply control and demand growth, particularly in the context of China's carbon-neutral goals [24]. - **Cost Structure**: Anticipated cost of sales for aluminum and alumina is projected to remain stable, with gross profit margins improving over the forecast period [9]. Risks - **Downside Risks**: Include lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices, higher-than-expected costs, and potential government policy changes regarding supply cuts [26]. Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Rated as a "Buy" due to expected benefits from China's carbon-neutral initiatives and favorable market conditions for aluminum prices [24][25]. Additional Insights - **Earnings Sensitivity**: The company's earnings are sensitive to fluctuations in aluminum and alumina prices, with significant impacts on net profit projections based on price changes [11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price reflects a valuation that is 2.25 standard deviations above the historical average, indicating confidence in future earnings growth [3][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Aluminum Corporation of China, highlighting financial forecasts, market dynamics, and investment strategies.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the copper demand is expected to increase significantly due to growth in artificial intelligence and defense sectors, with a projected 50% rise by 2040, leading to a potential annual supply gap of over 10 million tons if recycling and mining efforts are not intensified [1] - The Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has seen a strong increase of 3.45%, with notable gains from individual stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten (600549) up 9.86%, Hailiang Co. (002203) up 7.91%, and Chihong Zn & Ge (600497) up 7.82% [1] - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the copper supply side is cautious with new expansions and high production costs, predicting a 2% growth in copper mine supply by 2026, while the smelting side faces historically low TC/RC levels, potentially limiting capacity utilization [1] Group 2 - The demand for copper is expected to grow by 3% due to economic recovery and the demand from AI-related equipment, resulting in a global supply-demand gap of approximately 630,000 tons [1] - The application of copper in data centers includes power transmission, signal transmission for high-speed data exchange between chips and systems, heat dissipation, and as a key material in semiconductor manufacturing [1] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the non-ferrous metal industry index and specific stocks, driven by a major mineral discovery in Xinjiang, which is expected to impact the market positively [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 2.32%, with notable stock performances including Xiamen Tungsten (up 8.97%), Hailiang Co. (up 7.75%), and Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.81%) [1] - The discovery of the Salt Lake 27 mineral group, with an average grade of 30.73%, marks the largest mineral find in the region in nearly 40 years, particularly for chromium ore, which is crucial for various high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the tightening supply-demand dynamics will lead to higher price elasticity for aluminum, with expectations for stable price increases and sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [2] - The electrolytic aluminum companies have passed their peak capital expenditure phase, suggesting a favorable environment for increased dividends and overall investment optimization in the sector [2] - The copper supply is projected to grow at 2% in 2026, with challenges in the smelting sector due to historically low TC/RC levels, which may limit production capacity [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 51.65% of the index, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3]