证券研究报告 建筑装饰 | 房屋建设Ⅱ 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 04 | 月 18 | 日 | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | 5.50 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 / 最 低 | | | 6.79/4.72 | | 高 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 227,262.15 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.02 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2,187.148 billion for 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 462 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year. The decline in profit was primarily due to higher-than-expected impairment provisions for construction projects [1][4]. - Despite the profit decline, the company maintained a strong dividend capability, distributing RMB 11.2 billion in dividends for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing by 3.47 percentage points to 24.29%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.9% [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from different segments in 2024 was as follows: construction revenue at RMB 1,321.8 billion (down 4.5%), infrastructure revenue at RMB 550.9 billion (down 1.0%), and surveying and design revenue at RMB 108 billion (down 0.8%). The overall gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, slightly up by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 2.11%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, with the fourth quarter showing a net profit margin of 1.16%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 468 billion, RMB 473 billion, and RMB 478 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of approximately 14% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue scale while focusing on high-quality operations, with a projected PE ratio of 4.87 for 2025 [4][6]. Market Position and Growth - The company has shown resilience in the real estate sector, with new land reserves of 8.82 million square meters, which is approximately 5.3 times the sales area for 2024 [2]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 15.8 billion, an increase of RMB 4.7 billion year-on-year, indicating improved cash management [3].

2025 年 4 月 17 日 公司研究 全年业绩有所承压，分红比例提升明显 ——中国建筑（601668.SH）2024 年年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：5.48 元 作者 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 021-52523822 sunwf@ebscn.com 分析师：吴钰洁 执业证书编号：S0930523100001 021-52523879 wuyujie@ebscn.com 资料来源：Wind （2024-09-03） 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 413.20 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 2264.36 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.72/6.79 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 29.19% | 股价相对走势 -11% -1% 9% 19% 29% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 中国建筑 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 5.06 | -1.63 | 1.94 | | 绝对 | -0.54 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.49 CNY for the next six months [5][10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.19 trillion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 461.87 billion CNY, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to increased expense ratios and impairment provisions [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.715 CNY per 10 shares, which represents 24.29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 3.47 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue performance was under pressure, with quarterly revenue growth rates of 4.67%, 1.16%, -13.62%, and -5.67% for Q1 to Q4 respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in Q4 [2][3]. - The revenue breakdown by business segment includes: construction at 1.32 trillion CNY (down 4.5% YoY), infrastructure at 550.9 billion CNY (down 1.0% YoY), real estate development and investment at 306.2 billion CNY (down 0.8% YoY), and surveying and design at 10.8 billion CNY (down 7.9% YoY [2][3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin improved slightly to 9.86% (up 0.03 percentage points YoY), with construction and infrastructure margins also increasing [3]. - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 157.74 billion CNY, a 43% increase YoY, and Q4 operating cash flow reaching 927.83 billion CNY, up 238.85% YoY [3]. - The net profit margin decreased to 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points YoY, primarily due to increased expense ratios and impairment provisions [3]. Contracting and Business Structure - The company signed new contracts totaling 4.50 trillion CNY in 2024, a 4.1% increase YoY, with notable growth in overseas contracts [4][9]. - The construction business structure continues to optimize, with new contracts in the construction sector at 2.65 trillion CNY (down 1.4% YoY) and infrastructure contracts at 1.41 trillion CNY (up 21.1% YoY) [9].

毛利率筑底回稳，费用率保持平稳。2024 年公司整体毛利率为9.86%，同比上升0.03pct，其中房建/基 建/地产毛利率分别为7.40%/10.03%/17.28%，同比+0.14/+0.20/-0.93pct，建筑业务毛利率筑底回稳有效 抵消了地产业务毛利率下行。2024 年公司期间费用率为4.95%，同比上升0.24pct，其中管理研发/销售 费用分别同比+0.6%/-1.3%/+14.4%。销售费用增长主因地产业务加大广告投入，相应支付的费用增加。 经营性现金流连续五年为正，投资收支比显著改善。2024 年公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额157.7 亿 元，连续五年为正。收现比/付现比分别为102.4%/102.2%，分别同比+1.3/+0.2pct。同时，公司严控新增 投资项目质量，加大项目投资回款力度，投资收支比显著提升，2024 年投资性现金流净流出25.1 亿 元，净流出规模为2006 年以来最小值。 投资建议：下调盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。受建筑地产行业下行影响，公司在手订单执行和回款 周期拉长，收入和利润承压。2024 年，公司新签订单保持稳健增长，现金管理成效显著，持续加大分 红力 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月17日 中国建筑（601668.SH） 优于大市 龙头优势凸显，现金流持续改善 收入小幅下滑，回款压力增大拖累盈利。2024 年公司实现营收 21871 亿元， 同比-3.5%，实现归母净利润 462 亿元，同比-14.9%。其中 2024Q4 公司实现 营业收入 5606 亿元，同比-5.7%，实现归母净利润 65 亿元，同比-38.9%。 2024 年公司归母净利润降幅大于收入降幅，主要原因有二：1）2024 年公司 计提信用/资产减值损失分别增加 7.5/50.3 亿元，同比+13.1%/+58.5%；2） 2024 年公司终止确认的金融资产金额有所增加，确认的终止确认损失增加 14.1 亿元，同比+84.4%，二者均与应收款质量下降相关。 新签订单逆势增长，地产销售彰显韧性。2024 年公司全年建筑业新签合同额 40808 亿元，同比+5.4%，其中房屋建筑新签 26516 亿元，同比-1.4%，基础 设施新签 14149 亿元，同比+21.1%，境内新签 38697 亿元，同比+4.7%，境 外新签 2110 亿元，同比+20.3%。地产方面，2024 年公司实现合 ...

2024年度，公司完成6,955家满足条件的绿色供应商入驻绿色商城，总合作额达2,487亿元，同比上升 21%，完成绿色采购评审1,000余次。 4月15日，中国建筑（601668）股份有限公司2024年度环境社会治理可持续发展报告。 在公司治理方面，2024年，中国建筑董事会层面共开展2次与ESG相关培训，公司在任独立董事均参与 了"上市公司独立董事反舞弊履职要点及建议" 培训，公司在任所有董事均参与了新《中华人民共和国 公司法》普法培训。 董事会评估是推动公司治理完善的驱动方式之一，公 司定期对董事会开展有效性 评估，及时发现董事会履 责的薄弱环节，持续提升董事会效能。 中国建筑建立"双碳"组织体系，成立由董事长担任组长的碳达峰碳中和工作领导小组，并下设碳达峰碳 中和工作小组，负责全面推动"双碳"及相关工作； 各二级机构明确"双碳"分管领导、负责部门及专职 人员，将"双碳"指标目标纳入子企业考核评价体系。 报告期内，中国建筑召开2次公司"双碳"工作大 会，专题部署"双碳"工作。为提升相关人员在气候变化方面的专业技能和管理能力，公司推进完成16节 ESG 线上课程成果应用，覆盖至三四级单位，保障公司员工均能 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 218.71 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.19 billion yuan, down 14.88% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.77 billion yuan, an increase of 43% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: - Construction revenue: 132.18 billion yuan, down 4.5% - Infrastructure revenue: 55.09 billion yuan, down 1.0% - Real estate revenue: 3.06 billion yuan, down 0.8% - Survey and design revenue: 10.8 billion yuan, down 7.9% [2] - Gross profit: 97.85 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year [2] - Gross margin: 9.86%, up 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Net margin: 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Total expenses ratio: 4.95%, up 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [2] Accounts Receivable and Liabilities - Accounts receivable stood at 317.09 billion yuan, an increase of 23.05% year-on-year [3] - Asset-liability ratio was 75.81%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Total impairment losses amounted to 20.09 billion yuan, an increase of 5.79 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Contractual Performance - New contracts signed in 2024 totaled 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year [3] - Breakdown of new contracts: - Construction: 4.08 trillion yuan, up 5.4% - Infrastructure: 1.41 trillion yuan, up 21.1% - Overseas contracts: 221.3 billion yuan, up 19.0% [3] - New contracts signed in January-February 2025 reached 713.6 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027: - 2025: 48.27 billion yuan, up 4.51% - 2026: 50.98 billion yuan, up 5.61% - 2027: 54.67 billion yuan, up 7.25% [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 4.61, 4.36, and 4.07 [4]

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 中国建筑（601668） 证券研究报告 现金分红比例稳步提升，关注中长期投资价值 现金分红比例稳步提升，股息率价值凸显 公司 24 年实现营业收入 21871.5 亿元，同比-3.46%，实现归母净利润 461.9 亿元，同比-14.88%，扣非归母净利润 415.8 亿元，同比-14.30%，其中 24Q4 单季度实现营收 5606.1 亿元，同比-5.67%，实现归母净利润 64.8 亿元，同 比-38.89%，24 年建筑市场竞争加剧、房地产业深度调整，导致公司收入 业绩显著承压，同时 24 年减值计提显著增加，影响了较多利润。订单角度， 24 年公司累计新签建筑业务合同 40808 亿元，同比+5.4%。此外，公司制 定 24 年每 10 股派息 2.715 元，现金分红比例为 24.29%，同比提升 3.47pct， 截至 4 月 15 日收盘对应 24 年股息率为 5.05%，建议关注中长期投资价值。 订单结构持续优化，工业厂房、能源、水利高景气 分业务看，24 年房建、基建、勘察设计业务分别实现收入 13218、5509、 108 亿元，同比分别-4.5%、-1.0% ...

新王诞生。 在房地产业的深度调整期，市场洗牌加剧，新的"霸主"正在诞生。 分析人士指出，地产业务的利润率相对较高，以及国央企的比较优势凸显，是促使中国建筑发力房地产 的主要原因。从近期公司的拿地情况看，其行业老大的地位恐怕很难撼动。 首成行业"老大" 中国建筑旗下拥有中海地产和中建地产两大房地产品牌。其中，中海地产于1992年在港交所上市，股票 简称为"中国海外发展"，是一家以成本管控能力著称的大型老牌房企。 中建地产是公司各局院地产业务所使用的品牌，也称"局院地产"。中国建筑旗下共有8个工程局，均涉 足房地产业务，被称为"中建八子"。 两者共同构成了"中建系"。 4月15日晚间，中国建筑（601668）发布2024年年报显示，去年中国建筑的房地产业务实现销售额4219 亿元，虽然较上年下降6.5%，但仍然超过保利，成为行业第一。 就规模而论，这也是中国建筑首次成为房地产行业的老大。 近几年，中国建筑旗下的中海地产和局院地产频频发力，行业排名也不断上升。早在今年年初发布业绩 简报时，中国建筑就确立了行业第一的地位。随着年报全文的发布，这家基建央企发力房地产的背景愈 加明朗。 2024年，中国建筑的地产业务毛利 ...