格隆汇2月25日丨南华期货股份(02691.HK)宣布，将于2026年3月27日(星期五)举行董事会会议，以考虑 及批准(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止的年度业绩及其发布，建议派发2025年度末 期股息(如有)，以及处理其他事项(如有)。 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 COMEX与伦敦现货市场金银，在国内春节假期整体收涨，截止周五，COMEX黄金2604主力合约收报 5130美元/盎司，周涨幅+1.66%；COMEX白银2603主力合约收报84.57美元/盎司，周涨幅+8.47%。主要 受益于地缘与贸易关税避险升温，以及2月12日晚间公布的美CPI数据支持美联储降息的预期影响。 【机构观点】 春节期间贵金属呈现"数据驱动打底、地缘风险抬升、政策不确定性引爆"的三段式上涨。当前市场处于 美联储货币政策边际宽松与全球贸易体系碎片化、地缘局势不确定性的交汇点，黄金作为非信用货币的 配置和避险价值凸显。短期需关注15%临时关税若正式实施后，贸易伙伴反制措施，若欧盟、中国等采 取对等报复，避险需求将进一步升温。3月19日美联储FOMC会议点阵图及经济预测则将是验证降息路 径的关键，期间则需关注3月初美非农就业报告、3月中旬美CPI数据。策略上维持贵金属战略看多立 场，白银则关注金银比修复机会。 2月24日，沪金主力暂报1150.50元/克，涨幅3.52%，今日沪金主力开盘价1160.00元/克，截至目前最高 1162.2元/克，最低1142.00元/克。 【宏观 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

金银现货和期货价格出现上涨，金价已站上5100美元。 东莞证券2026年2月14日发布的有色金属行业双周报提到，短期黄金市场多空博弈加剧，需等待金价继 续企稳，中长期美元信用逐步弱化，叠加2026年美联储降息仍有预期，黄金配置价值有望进一步提升。 五矿证券2026年2月13日发布的2026年有色金属趋势展望指出，2025年贵金属涨幅居前，COMEX黄金 白银分别上涨81%、178%。东方证券2026年2月13日发布的A股风格及行业配置周报提到，流动性冲击 消化后，有色回归基本面定价，贵金属长期配置逻辑并未改变，近一周铜铝库存基本持稳，但累库幅度 放缓，铜铝等工业品现实转强或可期待，在宏观利好释出且供给扰动增加背景下，供需格局改善的品种 有望继续表现。光大证券2026年2月12日发布的2026年2月五维行业比较观点显示，有色金属行业在五维 行业比较框架下得分较高。国元证券2026年2月发布的有色金属行业双周报提到，截至2月6日， COMEX黄金近2周出现上涨。 产业链及企业梳理 赤峰黄金：聚焦黄金采选业务，通过旗下矿山开展黄金矿石开采与选矿加工，产出合质金等产品对外销 售，当前金银现货和期货价格出现上涨，金价已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures, with a target price of 30.42 yuan based on a 28x PE valuation for 2026E [14][42]. Core Insights - Nanhua Futures' overseas platform, Honghua International, is a key profit source, benefiting from the growing demand for cross-border risk management and overseas derivative trading as Chinese enterprises expand internationally [2][14]. - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in overseas business, supported by its successful Hong Kong IPO, which enhances its capital base to meet the increasing demand from enterprises going abroad [14][31]. - The rapid increase in overseas client margin is driving profit growth, with overseas financial service revenue expected to rise significantly [36][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Stable Equity, Comprehensive Business, and Deepening Profit Structure - Nanhua Futures is a comprehensive futures company with a foundation in futures brokerage, extending into risk management and wealth management, and focusing on overseas financial services for growth [19][21]. - The company has maintained a high concentration of ownership, with the controlling shareholder holding approximately 69.68% of the shares, which supports long-term strategic investments [19][20]. 2. Strong Demand for Overseas Derivatives and Risk Management - The demand for overseas derivatives is driven by the increasing outbound investment from Chinese enterprises, projected to reach approximately 174.4 billion USD in 2025 [25][27]. - The report highlights that as Chinese companies expand internationally, their need for cross-border hedging and risk management tools will continue to grow [25][30]. 3. Clear First-Mover Advantage in Overseas Business - Nanhua Futures has established a comprehensive network of licenses and memberships across major global financial centers, allowing it to effectively serve clients' cross-market hedging and clearing needs [31][33]. - The company has been acquiring relevant licenses since 2007, creating a unique position among domestic futures companies [31][33]. 4. Rapid Growth in Margin Scale Driving Profit - The overseas business has become the core source of profit for Nanhua Futures, with significant contributions from interest income and commissions [36][39]. - The report indicates that the overseas financial service revenue is expected to reach approximately 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a substantial portion coming from interest income [36][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 14.3 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.0 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan respectively [14][41]. - The expected growth rates for net profit are +8.7%, +33.1%, and +10.4% for the same period [41][44].

Core Insights - The global photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity has grown at an average annual rate of over 24% in the past five years, while the prices of PV products have continued to decline, leading to intensified price competition and volatility in raw material prices [1] - A leading photovoltaic welding strip company in Jiangsu has managed to maintain stable operations despite significant increases in copper and tin prices in 2024, thanks to a risk management strategy involving financial derivatives [1] - The collaboration between the company and Nanhua Futures has sparked a trend in risk management within the Suzhou industrial cluster, highlighting the importance of financial tools in mitigating raw material price risks [2][3] Company Overview - The photovoltaic welding strip company, recognized as a high-tech enterprise in Jiangsu, has established itself as an industry benchmark due to its high market share [1] - The company faced challenges related to raw material price fluctuations, particularly for copper and tin, which could lead to increased costs and inventory management difficulties [1] - Following a year of risk management service from Nanhua Futures, the company signed a contract for investment consulting, indicating a deepening partnership [1] Risk Management Strategy - Nanhua Futures provided a tailored hedging solution focusing on futures and options to address the company's concerns about rising raw material prices and inventory management [1] - The company successfully locked in sufficient quantities of copper and tin ahead of price surges in 2024, demonstrating effective risk mitigation [2] - The introduction of new risk hedging tools, such as options, has further strengthened the company's risk management capabilities [2] Industry Impact - The successful collaboration between the company and Nanhua Futures has influenced other enterprises in the Suzhou industrial cluster, leading to increased interest in financial derivatives for risk management [2][3] - Local banks and securities firms have facilitated the connection between industries and futures institutions, accelerating the adoption of risk management practices [2] - The ongoing "dual carbon" policy and the transition in the photovoltaic sector underscore the necessity for robust risk management as a core competency for companies in the renewable energy industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative "insurance + futures" model implemented by Nanhua Futures to address the market risks faced by farmers in Hubei Province, ensuring stable income and contributing to national oilseed security [1][2]. Group 1: Project Background - Hubei Province is a crucial oilseed production base in China, accounting for one-sixth of the national planting area and 17% of the total output, making it vital for national oil security [2]. - Despite government support, the oilseed industry faces challenges such as limited yield, high production costs due to labor shortages, and volatile prices influenced by international markets and demand [2]. - Traditional agricultural insurance primarily covers yield losses from natural disasters but fails to address income losses from price declines, leading to reduced planting enthusiasm among farmers [2]. Group 2: Service Plan and Process - In early 2024, a pilot project for oilseed income insurance was launched in Zhongxiang City, covering 46,606.46 acres of oilseed [3]. - The project employs a "revenue insurance + futures options" model, creating a closed-loop risk transfer mechanism [4]. Group 3: Innovative Model - The model includes three layers: 1. Revenue insurance protects farmers against both yield and price risks, transitioning from traditional cost coverage to income protection [4]. 2. Insurance companies purchase put options from Nanhua Capital to hedge against price volatility, effectively transferring risk [4]. 3. Nanhua Capital utilizes its trading advantages in the futures market to disperse risks, creating a win-win situation for farmers, insurers, and the futures market [4]. Group 4: Policy Support - The pilot project received significant provincial financial support, with subsidies of 2.141 million yuan, covering 70% of total premiums, which lowered the cost for farmers and encouraged participation [7]. - Nanhua Futures also subsidized 25% of the premiums, demonstrating the financial institution's commitment to supporting the agricultural sector [7]. Group 5: Achievements - After the project, 28 insured farmers received a total compensation of 751,800 yuan, achieving a remarkable return rate of 491.7% on their paid premiums, effectively mitigating income losses from market fluctuations [9]. - Farmers expressed increased confidence in planting due to the income insurance, while local government and insurance companies recognized the project's innovative approach to risk management [10]. Group 6: Insights and Replicability - The project exemplifies a successful integration of "insurance + futures/options" as an effective risk management tool, applicable to other volatile agricultural products [13]. - The collaboration between government subsidies and market operations demonstrates a model that can be replicated in other regions [13]. - The tailored hedging strategy based on local production characteristics enhances the project's adaptability and effectiveness [13]. Group 7: Future Implications - The success of the project indicates a need for the agricultural insurance system to evolve from cost protection to income and price protection to meet the demands of modern agricultural operations [14]. - Expanding the coverage to include more specialty crops and smallholder farmers could enhance financial inclusion [14]. - Continued development of the futures market and financial literacy among farmers will strengthen risk management capabilities [14].

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures announced a capital increase of HKD 1.203 billion for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Henghua International, to strengthen its overseas business and enhance competitiveness in global markets [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase will raise Henghua International's registered capital to HKD 2.029 billion [1] - The funds for this capital increase will come from the net proceeds of the H-share global offering, which raised HKD 1.203 billion by issuing 10.8 million shares at HKD 12 per share [1] - The capital increase will be executed through cash contributions, with no involvement of physical assets, intangible assets, or equity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Henghua International reported a revenue of HKD 654 million and a net profit of HKD 417 million for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025 (unaudited), Henghua International achieved a revenue of HKD 506 million and a net profit of HKD 328 million, both showing positive year-on-year growth [1] Group 3: Company Background - Nanhua Futures was established in 1996 and is listed on both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - Henghua International was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2006 and has established wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures (603093) successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 22, 2025, achieving an "A+H" dual platform listing, with H-shares priced at HKD 12 per share, raising net funds to enhance global business operations through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanhua International [1] Recent Events - On January 26, 2026, Nanhua USA LLC, a foreign subsidiary, obtained trading membership at the Nodal Exchange, expanding its presence in the North American market [2] - On February 9, 2026, the board approved a capital increase of HKD 1.203 billion for Nanhua International to strengthen its capital base in Hong Kong, the UK, the US, and Singapore, pending regulatory approval [2] Executive Changes - On December 12, 2025, the company announced the appointment of Mr. Chen Donghua as Deputy General Manager, while the previous Deputy General Manager was dismissed, following proper procedures [3] Company Status - On February 4, 2026, the company changed its auditing signatory accountants for the 2025 fiscal year to Tang Binbin and Lan Xiao, with the audit firm Tianjian confirming a smooth transition that would not affect the audit process [4] - On January 27, 2026, Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd. increased its holdings in the company's H-shares by 1.598 million shares, raising its stake to 6.04% [4] Recent Stock Performance - On January 27, 2026, H-shares surged over 9% during trading, reaching a new high of HKD 12.5, and were included as a target in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [5] Regulatory Policies - In February 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange reported penalties for violations in trading, emphasizing the need for enhanced risk control, which may impact the operational environment for futures companies [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Analyze the current macro - core contradictions and the price fluctuations of each metal based on fundamental changes when studying the Spring Festival market of non - ferrous metals [2][3] - Most non - ferrous metal varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023 [12] - In 2026, if there are no sudden events during the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of non - ferrous metals will likely maintain the pre - festival fluctuation logic, and high volatility is expected after the holiday [20][21] - Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers can sell put options or buy up - and - out accumulator options according to their inventory and procurement needs [1][21] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spring Festival Price Fluctuation Logic of Non - ferrous Metals - The price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals during the Spring Festival are mainly due to three types of contradictions: the split between macro and micro, different fundamentals of each variety, and the game between Chinese demand and overseas supply [2] - When analyzing the Spring Festival market, first qualitatively analyze whether the current macro - core contradiction is a unilateral trend or two - way contradiction, and then quantitatively analyze the price changes and fluctuations of each variety based on fundamental changes [3] 2. Fluctuation Situations of Annual Spring Festival Price Changes - **Historical Market Review**: Different metals had different performances and driving factors around the Spring Festival in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. For example, copper had a bull - market start in 2016, and zinc led the rise of basic metals in 2016 due to a shortage of concentrates [10][11] - **Volatility Characteristics**: Most varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023. For example, the average volatility of SHFE copper after the Spring Festival is higher than that before the Spring Festival [12] - **Price Change and Opening Situation**: The price changes and opening situations of different metals around the Spring Festival vary. For example, in 2016, SHFE copper opened with a gap down of more than 2% after the Spring Festival, following the sharp decline of LME copper. The average jump ratio, opening - higher probability, average post - festival first - day change, and LME following probability of zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are also calculated [18] 3. 2026 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Festival Strategy - **Market Environment**: The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the market may digest macro - economic indicators before the festival. The prices are likely to maintain the pre - festival logic if there are no sudden events during the holiday, and the game between short - term weak supply - demand and long - term strong expectations should be noted after the holiday [20] - **Volatility and Trend Degree**: As of February 9, the volatility of non - ferrous metals has significantly declined. The trend strengths of copper, aluminum, and tin exceed 50%, while those of zinc and nickel are below 50%, indicating that the upward trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are still good, and zinc and nickel tend to fluctuate [21] - **Option Strategies**: Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers with large pre - festival inventories can sell put options, and those worried about price increases during post - festival restocking can buy up - and - out accumulator options [1][21] - **Case of Selling Put Options**: Taking a copper inventory as an example, selling an out - of - the - money put option can obtain a premium to compensate for the cost of raw materials in case of price decline after the festival [22] - **Introduction to Buying Up - and - Out Accumulator Options**: This option strategy is suitable for scenarios such as daily low - price spot procurement, willingness to purchase more when the price drops, monthly average price settlement, and mild upward or fluctuating market conditions [25]