古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 符合预期，彰显韧性 ——古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年三季报，公司 24 年前三季度实现总营收 190.69 亿 元、同比增长 19.53%，实现归母净利润 47.46 亿元、同比增长 24.49%。其中 Q3 单季总营收 52.63 亿元、同比增长 13.36%，归母净利润 11.74 亿元、同比 增长 13.60%，Q3 收入及业绩表现符合此前市场预期。 Q3 收入增长符合预期，中档价位产品增长提速。三季度公司收入端同比增长 13.4%，增速环比 Q2 放缓但符合市场此前预期，虽然行业整体以及省内需求面 临一定压力，但 Q3 公司收入实现双位数以上增幅、成长性在板块内依旧领先。 1）产品端，估计中间价位的古 7/古 8 收入增速相对较快，古 7 放开在省外部分 区域招商、估计增长提速较为明显，古 8 加大在省内市场的红包等投入力度。古 16 销售收入延续较快增长势头，渠道反馈古 16 受益于省内宴席用酒价位升级、 估计宴席场景支撑较高消费。古 20 作为次高端价位产品受到外部环境影响相对 较大、估计增速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong performance resilience as a leading player in the Huizhou liquor industry, with revenue growth outpacing industry peers [2][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its upward momentum, with revenue projections for 2024-2026 set at 23.778 billion yuan, 26.964 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's sales net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.14%, while the gross profit margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87% [2][4] Market Position - The company maintains a solid market position in its home province of Anhui, which remains the primary source of revenue growth, while also expanding its presence in other provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang [2][4] Product Performance - The company’s product lines, including the Xianli version and various aged products, are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth in consumer spending, although some segments may experience a slowdown in growth rates [2][4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow, with operating cash flow net amount rising by 34.55% year-on-year [2][4] - As of Q3 2024, the company’s contract liabilities stood at 1.936 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease as the company adjusted its cash collection pace [2][4]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596） 2024 年前三季度业绩点评：收入符合预期， 毛销差持续改善 2024 年 10 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16713 | 20254 | 23713 | 26632 | 30556 | | 同比（ % ） | 25.95 | 21.18 | 17.08 | 12.31 | 14.73 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3143 | 4589 | 5698 | 6673 | 7931 | | 同比（ % ） | 36.78 | 46.01 | 24.16 | 17.11 | 18.85 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 5.95 | 8.68 | 10.78 | ...

华福证券 司 研 古井贡酒（000596.SZ） 收入端强韧性，基本面稳健增长 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年三季度报告，公司 24 年前三季度实现营业 收入 190.69 亿元，同比+19.53%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润 47.46 亿元，同比+24.49%，实现扣非归母净利润 47.00 亿元，同比+25.55%。 根据三季度报，公司 24Q3 单季度实现营收 52.63 亿元，同比+13.36%， 归母净利润 11.74 亿元，同比+13.60%，扣非归母净利润 11.59 亿元，同 比+14.52%。公司蓄水池有所收缩，24 前三季度合同负债和其他流动负债 合计 38.28 亿元，对比去年同期下降 24.83%。 费用支出保持平稳，净利水平稳步提升 2024 年前三季度，公司毛利率对比去年同期增长 0.67pct 至 79.71%。公司费用投入稳定，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别对比去 年同期-2.06/-0.28/-0.01/-0.58pct 至 25.29%/5.47%/0.27%/-1.61%，净利 率对比去年同期+1.17pct 至 25.68%。 24Q3 单季度来看，公司毛利率对 ...

证 2024 年 11 月 01 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-10-31 当前股价（元） 188.41 总市值（亿元） 996 总股本（百万股） 529 流通股本（百万股） 409 52 周价格范围（元） 140.6-280.38 日均成交额（百万元） 383.57 公 研 究 业绩符合预期，保持战略定力 —古井贡酒（000596.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日，古井贡酒发布 2024 年三季度。 投资要点 ▌业绩符合预期，费投力度优化 业绩符合预期，利润增速略快于收入。2024Q1-Q3 总营收 190.69 亿元（同增 19.53%），归母净利润 47.46 亿元（同增 24.49%），扣非净利润 47.00 亿元（同增 25.55%）。2024Q3 总营收 52.63 亿元（同增 13.36%），归母净利润 11.74 亿元 （同增 13.60%），扣非净利润 11.59 亿元（同增 14.52%）。 产品结构略调整，费投力度优化明显。2024Q1-3 毛利率/净 利率分别为 79.71%/25.68%，分别同比+0.67/+1.17pcts； 2024Q3 分别为 77. ...

古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 Q3 收入利润双位数 徽酒龙头显韧性 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季报，24 年 Q1-3 公司累计实现 营 收 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 190.69/47.46/47.00 亿 元 ， 同 比 +19.53%/+24.49%/+25.55%。其中单 24Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归 母净利润 52.63/11.74/11.59 亿元，同比+13.36%/+13.60%/+14.52%。 ➢ 年份原浆腰部价位成为品牌增长主力，省外扩张阶段性受阻向省内收缩。产 品端：产品端基本盘年份原浆全价位带布局，受益于持续多年的品牌建设和消费 者培育，年内有望维持量价齐升态势。古 5 表现平稳，古 7 省外招商汇量，腰部 古 8/古 16 高基数下持续放量，古 20 年内降速或系适配的政商务场景缺失，新 品古 30 卡位千元价格带提前布局目标拔高品牌形象。区域上：公司全国化战略 以合肥为战略高地引领全省，并快速辐射江苏、河南、山东、河北、湖北、江西 等周边市场，目前 ...

2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司点评 买入/维持 古井贡酒(000596) 目标价: 222.66 昨收盘:186.31 古井贡酒：业绩符合预期，行业调整凸显韧性 ◼ 走势比较 (50%) (36%) (22%) (8%) 6% 20% 23/10/3124/1/1224/3/2524/6/624/8/1824/10/30 古井贡酒 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 5.29/4.09 总市值/流通(亿元) 984.83/761.26 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 294.98/139.84 相关研究报告 <<古井贡酒：业绩符合预期，产品结 构持续提升>>--2024-09-03 <<双百亿目标顺利达成，净利率稳步 上升>>--2024-04-30 <<古井贡酒：Q3 利润超预期，产品结 构持续提升>>--2023-10-30 事件：古井贡酒发布 2024 年三季报，2024Q1-Q3 实现收入 190.69 亿元，同比+19.5%，归母净利润 47.46 亿元，同比+24.5%， 扣非归母净利润 47.00 亿元，同比+25.5%。2024Q3 实现收入 52.63 亿元，同比+13 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 13.6%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 19.07 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company demonstrated resilience in the domestic market despite a challenging environment for liquor demand in Anhui province. The revenue growth is attributed to the stable demand for its main products priced around 200 yuan and the strong brand power of Gu 16, which has benefited from the upgrade in price points [5][6]. - The overall profitability remains stable, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 1.55 percentage points due to product structure pressure and increased promotional expenses during festive seasons [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating cash flow was 1.334 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year, and sales cash receipts were 5.460 billion yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting revenues of 23.71 billion, 26.94 billion, and 30.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.6%, and 12.7% respectively [7][8]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 5.599 billion, 6.563 billion, and 7.656 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.0%, 17.2%, and 16.7% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.6x for 2024 and 15.0x for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [7][9]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a total market capitalization of approximately 99.594 billion yuan [3]. Market Context - The report highlights the competitive landscape within the liquor industry, with Gujing Gongjiu maintaining a strong brand presence and pricing power in the domestic market [5][6]. - The overall trend in the industry suggests a gradual recovery in liquor consumption, with Gujing Gongjiu positioned to benefit from ongoing consumption upgrades in its domestic market [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 古井贡酒（000596）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 动力充足，韧性凸显 目标价：300 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 190.7 亿，同增 19.5%；归母净利 润 47.5 亿，同增 24.5%；其中单 Q3 实现营收 52.6 亿，同增 13.4%；归母净利 润 11.7 亿，同增 13.6%，销售回款 54.6 亿，同增 24.6%，经营现金流量净额 13.3 亿，同增 34.6%，Q3 末合同负债 19.4 亿，环比 Q2 末降 2.8 亿。 评论： 业绩符合预期，报表具备韧性。公司单 Q3 营收同增 13.4%，环比降速，但仍 居酒类上市公司前列，报表韧性显现。判断系古 16 受益宴席升级及商务降档， 延续高增引领增长；古 7 费投加大叠加河北、河南、东北、西北等区域招商铺 货，提速明显贡献增量；古 8 基本盘强化增长，库存略有增加；古 5/献礼高费 投下亦实现正增长；古 20 省外延续调整，增速回落明显；老明光受益省内广 告资源倾斜，叠加规模起势，维持高增态势。分区域看，公司省内强化终端布 局，行业承压下持续抢占竞品 ...