Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilient operational performance with steady revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.36%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, which is a 13.6% increase compared to the same period last year [5][6]. - The company's cash flow from sales and services for Q1-Q3 2024 was 19.705 billion yuan, up 13.58% year-on-year, indicating healthy growth quality [5][6]. - The company's gross profit margin faced some pressure in Q3 2024, decreasing by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87%, while the net profit margin improved slightly by 0.05 percentage points to 22.3% [6]. - The company is advancing its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, with a solid domestic market position and steady expansion in provincial markets, aiming for continuous breakthroughs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 4.7 billion yuan [5][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 10.63 yuan and 12.50 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19 and 16 times at the current stock price [6].

证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡 B 公告编号：2024-020 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 二〇二四年十一月十六日 1 附件：保荐代表人简历 公司董事会对保荐代表人陈静静女士在公司持续督导期间所做 出的贡献表示衷心感谢！ 特此公告。 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 董 事 会 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到保 荐机构中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"）《关于 更换安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司持续督导保荐代表人的函》，中金公 司原委派方磊先生和陈静静女士为公司持续督导工作的保荐代表人。 原持续督导保荐代表人陈静静女士因工作变动原因，不再担任公司的 持续督导保荐代表人，为保证持续督导工作的有序进行，中金公司现 委派保荐代表人彭昭朕先生（简历见附件）接替陈静静女士担任公司 持续督导保荐代表人，负责持续督导工作，履行相关职责。本次保荐 代表人变更后，公司持续督导保荐代表人为方磊先生和彭昭朕先生。 彭昭朕先生：保荐代表人，会计学硕士，现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 52.63 billion yuan and net profit at 11.74 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13.36% and 13.60% respectively [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its expansion across the country, with significant market breakthroughs in several regions, establishing a solid growth foundation [1]. - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, leading to a stable net profit margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2024, the company reported revenues of 190.69 billion yuan, net profit of 47.46 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 47.00 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 24.49%, and 25.55% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87%, while the net profit margin increased slightly by 0.05 percentage points to 22.30% [2]. - The operating cash flow increased by 34.55% year-on-year to 13.34 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 239.6 billion yuan, 281.6 billion yuan, and 326.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 55.7 billion yuan, 69.1 billion yuan, and 83.9 billion yuan [2][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026 are 20.8X, 16.8X, and 13.8X respectively [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is making steady progress in its national expansion strategy, with first-tier markets achieving over 10 billion yuan in revenue and second-tier markets showing potential with revenues between 3-5 billion yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and optimizing costs to maintain profitability amid a challenging demand environment [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 19.5% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 24.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit increased by 13.4% and 13.6% respectively, with improved net profit margin driven by enhanced gross sales [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-300 RMB price range, with a strong likelihood of achieving its revenue targets for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of November 7, 2024, the closing price is 219.06 RMB, with a circulating share capital of 5.29 billion shares and a net asset value per share of 45.20 RMB [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.6 billion RMB, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, with a cash collection rate of 103.74% [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 239.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 54.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.4% increase [5][6] - The revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are forecasted at 18.2%, 12.3%, and 13.9% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 19.4%, 16.5%, and 19.3% [6] Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is shifting towards the 100-300 RMB range, with significant growth in the sales of aged raw liquor products, particularly "Gu 8" and "Gu 16," which saw growth rates exceeding 30% [3] - The company has completed its revenue collection tasks in most regions within Anhui province, with progress in other provinces ranging from 70% to 90% [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.1%, although the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points due to changes in product mix and increased channel expenses [4] - The company has focused its expense optimization efforts on the consumer end, leading to a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase Holding" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1] - The company maintained strong growth resilience despite a slowdown in sales momentum in the third quarter [1] Market Data Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [1] - The company’s market share continues to improve within the province, benefiting from the upgrade of local banquet consumption [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.869 billion yuan, 26.628 billion yuan, and 29.449 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.569 billion yuan, 6.325 billion yuan, and 7.078 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 21.3%, 13.6%, and 11.9% respectively [2] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, increasing from 79.1% in 2023 to 80.0% by 2026 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 22.5% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 22.1% by 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 8.68 yuan in 2023 to 13.39 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.1 in 2023 to 14.3 by 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance compared to the industry, with a steady profit level [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue growth in Q1-Q3 2024 was 25.85%, 16.79%, and 13.36% respectively, indicating a deceleration in growth due to overall market weakness, yet still outperforming the industry [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 79.71%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix optimization [1] - The net profit margin for the same period was 24.89%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margin and reduced expense ratios [1] Q3 Performance - In Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased to 77.87%, down 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remained stable at 22.30%, up 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a reduction in contract liabilities, which decreased by 41.61% year-on-year to 1.936 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.640 billion yuan, 6.497 billion yuan, and 7.446 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 22.89%, 15.20%, and 14.61% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 18, 16, and 14 times, with a market capitalization of 103.1 billion yuan as of November 4 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the industry benchmark by more than 15% [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [3][4]. - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has maintained a stable profit margin due to effective cost management and a decrease in sales expenses [4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.640 billion yuan, 6.497 billion yuan, and 7.446 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 22.89%, 15.20%, and 14.61% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 79.71%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 24.89%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The revenue growth rates for the first three quarters of 2024 were 25.85%, 16.79%, and 13.36% respectively, indicating a gradual slowdown in growth but still outperforming the overall industry [4]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 23.896 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.98% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on a market capitalization of 103.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22.75%, 22.83%, and 22.80% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6].

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | 股票数据 | | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 04 日收盘价（元） ] | 195.00 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 139.84-287.24 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 529/409 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 103077/103077 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《期间费用管控良好，盈利能力持续提升》 | | | 2024.09.01 | | | 《 24 年开门红兑现，一季报利润亮眼》 | | | 2024.05.17 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -36.65% -26.65% -16.65% -6.65% 3.35% 古井贡酒 海通综指 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 19.07 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 5.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Despite a relatively weak external consumption environment, the company managed to maintain double-digit growth in Q3 2024, showcasing strong resilience in growth amid increased market competition [3] - The company is focusing on its mid-to-high-end strategy and national expansion, aiming to deepen its market presence in its home province while ensuring stable pricing for its products [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.9%, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of lower-priced products. The sales expense ratio significantly decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 23.0%, while the overall expense ratio fell by 5.0 percentage points to 29.0%. The net profit margin slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 23.1% [2] - The company reported cash flow from sales of 5.46 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, with contract liabilities at 1.94 billion yuan, down 41.6% year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging the upcoming festive seasons to boost sales through innovative marketing strategies and consumer engagement activities. It aims to stabilize channel profits through various promotional activities [2] - The company is committed to its strategy of national expansion and focusing on mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and sustain growth [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 10.73 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 14.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x. The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strategic initiatives, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][4]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|古井贡酒（000596） 三季报点评：业绩稳健增长，渠道稳扎 稳打 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月03日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告，2024Q3 公司营业总收入 52.63 亿元，同比+13.36%；归母净利 润 11.74 亿元，同比+13.60%，收入利润稳健增长。2024Q3 公司毛销差同比提升 3.76pct，我 们预计或主要由于公司调整费用投放的方式，从渠道费用转向消费者扫码红包等。考虑到公 司管理层尊重市场规律，渠道运作能力领先，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月03日 古井贡酒(000596) 三季报点评：业绩稳健增长，渠道稳扎稳打 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------------- ...