2024年04月29日 公 司点评 公 增持 / 下调 司 古井贡酒(000596) 研 究 目标价: 300.78 昨收盘:264.50 双百亿目标顺利达成，净利率稳步上升 事件：古井贡酒发布2023年年报和2024年一季报，2023年实现 ◼ 走势比较 营收202.54亿元，同比+21.18%，归母净利润45.89亿元，同比+46.01%， 扣非归母净利润 44.95 亿元，同比+46.59%。2023Q4 实现营收 43.01 10% 亿元，同比+8.92%，归母净利润7.77亿元，同比+49.20%。2024Q1实 太 0% 现营收 82.86 亿元，同比+25.85%，归母净利润 20.66 亿元，同比 平 (10%)4/5/32 41/7/32 32/9/32 3/21/32 21/2/42 32/4/42 +31.61%，扣非归母净利润20.50亿元，同比+32.67%。 洋 2023 年营收突破 200 亿，一季度开门红表现亮眼。2023 年双百 (20%) 证 亿目标顺利达成，一季度开门红表现亮眼。分产品，2023年公司年份 (30%) 原浆/古井贡酒/黄鹤楼及其他分别实现营收 154.17 ...

证券代码：000596、200596 证券简称：古井贡酒、古井贡 B 公告编号：2024-013 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司 安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2023 年年度报 告全文及摘要已于 2024 年 4 月 27 日正式披露。为方便广大投资者更 深入全面的了解公司经营情况，公司拟定于 2024 年 5 月 21 日（星期 二）下午 15:00—16:30 举行 2023 年度网上业绩说明会，就公司发展 战略、经营情况等问题与投资者进行充分交流，广泛听取投资者的意 见和建议。 本次业绩说明会将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登陆全景 网"投资者关系互动平台"（http://ir.p5w.net） 参与本次业绩说明会。 出席本次业绩说明会的人员：公司总经理周庆伍先生；公司独立 董事王瑞华先生；公司常务副总经理闫立军先生；公司副总经理许鹏 先生；公司副总经理、总会计师、董事会秘书朱家峰先生（如有特殊 情况，参会人员会有调整）。 为充分尊重投资者、提升交流的针对性，现就公司本次业绩说明 会提前向投资者公开征集问题，广泛听取投资者的意见和建议。投资 者可于2024 年5月16日（星期四）17:00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 202.5 billion and a net profit of 45.9 billion in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 21.2% and 46% respectively [3] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted revenue of 244.5 billion and a profit of 79.5 billion in 2024 [4] - The company maintains a strong market position and is expected to benefit from ongoing optimization of expense ratios, which will enhance profitability [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the total revenue reached 202.5 billion, with a net profit of 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.2% and 46% respectively [3] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue and net profit of 43.0 billion and 7.8 billion, with year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 49.2% [3] - For the first quarter of 2024, revenue and net profit were 82.9 billion and 20.7 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 31.6% [3] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 79.1% in 2023, while the net profit margin improved by 3.9 percentage points to 23.3% [3] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 60 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% [4] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 4.496 billion, with a net increase in cash of 1.571 billion [8] - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company reported contract liabilities of 46.2 billion, an increase of 32.2 billion from the end of 2023 [3] - The company has a solid cash flow performance, with a good balance between operating cash flow and liabilities [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 8.68 yuan, with projections of 11.31 yuan for 2024 [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 23.39 for 2024, decreasing to 15.56 by 2026 [2] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 139.81 billion [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported strong financial performance for 2023, with total revenue of 20.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.59 billion RMB, up 46.0% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue reached 8.29 billion RMB, growing 25.9% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.07 billion RMB, an increase of 31.6% year-on-year [1]. - The product mix continues to improve, with significant growth in sales outside the home province. The white liquor business generated 19.64 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1]. - The company aims to achieve revenue of 24.45 billion RMB and a total profit of 7.95 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 24.7% and 25.6%, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 79.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from an improved product mix. The net profit margin was 22.7%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is 11.24 RMB, 13.49 RMB, and 15.71 RMB, respectively, with a target price set at 269.76 RMB based on a 24x PE ratio for 2024 [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 35.42 billion RMB in 2023 to 57.43 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [12].

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 古井贡酒(000596) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 季 年报及一季报点评：收入利润符合预期，盈利改善持续兑现 当前价格： 264.50元 目标价格： 305.10元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年年报与2024年一季报，2023年公司实现营业收入202.54 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 528.60/528.60 亿元，同比增长21.18%，归母净利润45.89亿元，同比增长46.01%。23Q4 实现营业收入43.01亿元，同比增长8.92%，归母净利润7.77亿元，同比 流通A股市值(百万元) 108,074.70 增长49.20%。24Q1公司实现收入82.86亿元，同比增长25.85%，归母净利 每股净资产(元) 44.60 润20.66亿元，同比增长31.61%。 资产负债率(%) 39.46 ➢ 收入利润符合预期，2023年省内消费升级趋势延续，古16增长领先 一年内最高/最低(元) 301.10/195.39 公司收入利润符合预期。24Q1 合同负债 46.17亿元，同比下降 2.70 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2023, with a strong performance in the provincial markets and expectations for high-quality development in 2024 [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 202.54 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, and a net profit of 45.89 billion yuan, up 46.01% [3][5]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 82.86 billion yuan, a 25.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.66 billion yuan, growing by 31.61% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2023, the company generated revenue of 202.54 billion yuan, with significant contributions from various product lines: 154.17 billion yuan from vintage raw liquor, 20.16 billion yuan from Gujing Gongjiu, and 22.06 billion yuan from Huanghelou and other series [2]. - The company expanded its dealer network, adding 242 new dealers, bringing the total to 4,641 [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 79.07%, an increase of 1.90 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 22.66%, up 3.85 percentage points [2][3]. - For Q1 2024, the gross margin improved to 80.35%, with a net profit margin of 24.93%, reflecting ongoing product structure upgrades and cost management [2][3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 247.40 billion yuan, 299.55 billion yuan, and 353.37 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 22.2%, 21.1%, and 18.0% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 59.63 billion yuan, 73.75 billion yuan, and 88.75 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.9%, 23.7%, and 20.3% [5].

食品饮料 公 2024年04月28日 司 报 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 告 基地市场表现稳健，盈利能力优化 推荐 ( 维持 ) 事项： 古井贡酒发布2023年年报与2024年1季报，2023年收入203亿元，同比增长 股价:264.5元 21%，归母净利46亿元，同比增长46%；1Q24收入83亿元，同比增长26%， 公 主要数据 归母净利21亿元，同比增长32%。2023年公司拟每10股派发现金股利45元 行业 食品饮料 司 （含税），分红总额为24亿元 公司网址 www.gujing.com ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 开门红业绩亮眼，省外扩张加速 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年04月28日 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [T事ab件le：_公Su司mm发ar布y] 23年年报及一季报。公司23年营收202.5亿（+21%，同比 [古Ta井bl贡e_酒Sto(c0k0A0n5d9R6an)k ] 数据，下同），归母净利润45.89亿（+46%）。23Q4营收43.01亿（+9%），归 母净利润 7.77 亿（+49%）。24Q1 营收 82.86 亿（+26%），归母净利润为 投资评级 买入 20.66亿（+32%）。 上次评级 买入 点评： ➢ 产品结构优化，盈利能力提升。1) 23年毛利率79.1%（+1.9pct），净 [马Ta铮b le _ A u食th品o饮r] 料首席分析师 利率22.7%（+3.9pct）。24Q1毛利率80.4%（+0.7pct）；净利率25.7% 执业编号：S1500520110001 （+1.1pct）。2）24Q1销售费用22.5亿（+19%）占27.2%，主因销售 邮 箱：mazheng@cin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.25 billion and a net profit of 4.59 billion in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 21.18% and 46.01% respectively. The revenue for Q4 2023 was 4.30 billion, with a net profit of 0.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.92% and 49.20% [1] - The company is expected to reach a revenue of 24.69 billion and a net profit of 5.89 billion in 2024, with projected growth rates of 20.72% and 25.55% respectively. The long-term goal is to achieve 30 billion in revenue by 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's white liquor business generated 19.64 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 28.83%. The growth was driven by a volume increase of 3.16% and a price increase of 24.88% [1] - The gross profit margin for the company in 2023 was 79.07%, with a net profit margin of 22.66%, reflecting an increase of 1.90 percentage points and 3.85 percentage points year-on-year respectively [1] Product Breakdown - The revenue from the company's flagship product, Year Original Liquor, was 15.42 billion, up 27.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 85.65% [1] - The company also reported revenue from other products, including 2.02 billion from Gujing Gongjiu, which saw a 7.56% increase, and 2.21 billion from Huanghelou and others, which increased by 0.87% [1] Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from different regions in 2023 showed significant growth, with North China achieving 1.84 billion (up 39.01%), South China 17.11 billion (up 19.17%), and Central China 1.28 billion (up 26.89%) [1] - Online sales reached 0.73 billion, growing by 19.48%, while offline sales were 19.52 billion, increasing by 21.25% [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its digital infrastructure and cost management to improve efficiency and profitability. The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to grow at rates of 28.4%, 27.4%, and 24.7% respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24 for 2024, 19 for 2025, and 15 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [1]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 食品饮料/必需消费 [ Table_Main[古ITnaf 井bol]e 贡_Ti酒tle]( 000596) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 费率、结构优化，利润释放延续 目标价格： 350.00 上次预测： 350.00 公 ——古井贡酒2023 年报、2024 年一季报点评 当前价格： 264.50 司 訾猛(分析师) 李耀(分析师) 2024.04.28 更 021-38676442 8621-38675854 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 zimeng@gtjas.com liyao022899@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880513120002 S0880520090001 52周内股价区间（元） 199.12-299.25 报 总市值（百万元） 139,815 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 529/409 流通 B股/H股（百万股） 120/0 公司 2023 年受益于产品结构上行及费用率下行，利润呈现高增；态结构、降费率逻 流通股比例 100% 辑延续，2023Q4+2 ...