Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Gujinggongjiu into the scattered liquor market marks a significant shift for one of the eight major liquor brands, aiming to connect directly with consumers and adapt to changing market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Strategy - Gujinggongjiu's entry into the scattered liquor market is seen as a proactive measure to meet the diverse needs of consumers in a rational consumption environment [1] - The "Dajiu Pu" business model allows for direct community engagement, lowering the barriers for purchasing liquor through flexible product specifications [1] - The introduction of unique low-alcohol products is expected to attract a younger consumer demographic [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Historical sales data from popular brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Jian Nan Chun indicate a willingness among consumers to experiment with premium liquors [1] - There is an anticipation for more innovative approaches in product offerings and consumer engagement from renowned liquor brands in the future [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to have an EPS of 8.15 yuan in 2025 and 8.44 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 17 and 16 times the current stock price [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its solid brand foundation within the province and ongoing strategic market development outside the province [1]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the report time [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a strategy to stabilize the market by directly reaching consumers through its iMoutai platform, which has gained over 2.7 million new users [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's recent dealer communication emphasized three principles: preventing speculation, adapting supply and demand, and stabilizing the market [2] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.16, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - The white liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implement market strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The iMoutai platform's launch of the full range of Moutai products is expected to stabilize prices and improve market management [3] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [3] - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has opened its first "Gujing Liquor Shop" in Bozhou, Anhui Province, on December 12, 2025, marking its entry into the scattered liquor market. This transformation is seen as beneficial, as it allows the company to provide high-quality products at competitive prices to meet diverse consumer demands in a rational consumption environment [2][15]. - The new shop offers a variety of liquor options, including different types of Baijiu and local specialty wines, with flexible pricing starting from 2.9 yuan for 50ml to 29.9 yuan [6][15]. - The company aims to tap into the younger consumer demographic by lowering the barriers to purchase through community-based sales and offering unique low-alcohol products [2][15]. - The company has significantly increased its production capacity over the past decade, with output rising from 65,700 tons in 2014 to 128,000 tons in 2024, and plans to reach an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [18][23]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 8.15 yuan and 8.44 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 and 16 times [23]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The opening of the "Gujing Liquor Shop" represents the company's first foray into the scattered liquor market, providing a range of products at flexible pricing [6][15]. Market Performance - The company is positioned as a leading Baijiu brand in Anhui, leveraging its strong brand recognition to innovate and connect with consumers [2][15]. Production Capacity - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, which supports its entry into the scattered liquor market and aligns with consumer demand for high-quality products [18][23]. Consumer Demand - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, with a growing preference for quality and brand over low prices in the liquor market [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

东吴证券研报指出，古井贡酒周期底部报表出清可期，动销韧性强复苏第一梯队有望。从行业节奏来 看，2026年动销抓手仍是大众消费场景，同时从古井自身节奏来看，深度调整期管理团队稳定有助于销 售策略连续性更利于穿越周期；中期而言，古井省内优势稳固，坚定"全国化、次高端"战略，省外规模 化市场有望培育成型和复制。基于短期和中期判断，古井在白酒中投资排序靠前，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to navigate through the current industry adjustment phase, with a focus on stabilizing its management team and leveraging its brand and market advantages to recover sales in the long term [12][31] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the mass market segment, as it has a strong brand presence and distribution channels [27][31] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue projections for Gujing Gongjiu are as follows: 2023A: 20,254 million, 2024A: 23,578 million, 2025E: 18,705 million, 2026E: 19,146 million, 2027E: 21,119 million [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: 2023A: 4,589 million, 2024A: 5,517 million, 2025E: 4,243 million, 2026E: 4,448 million, 2027E: 5,004 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 8.68, 2024A: 10.44, 2025E: 8.03, 2026E: 8.42, 2027E: 9.47 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as: 2023A: 15.66, 2024A: 13.03, 2025E: 16.94, 2026E: 16.16, 2027E: 14.37 [1] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the white liquor industry has entered a period of adjustment since 2021, with significant revenue and profit declines observed in major companies during 2025 [12][13] - Gujing Gongjiu's management team has remained stable during this challenging period, reflecting support from local government for the company's stability [12][18] Long-term Outlook - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to leverage its strong brand and market position to recover and grow, particularly in the mass market segment, as consumer demand is anticipated to rebound [27][31] - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of penetrating surrounding markets while maintaining strong control in its home province of Anhui [31][56] Competitive Advantages - Gujing Gongjiu is recognized as a leading brand among the "Old Eight Famous Liquors" and has a competitive edge in both brand recognition and distribution channels [32][39] - The company has implemented a "Three Connections Project" to enhance its distribution efficiency and market penetration [46][49]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a rebound in retail prices for major products after a period of decline, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products increased to 8998 yuan, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Major products showing price increases include: - Wuliangye Pu Wuyi 8th generation: up 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573: up 7 yuan per bottle - Guqingong 20 and Xijiu Junpin: up 6 yuan per bottle each - Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: up 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases - Shuijing Jiananshun: price remained stable [1][5]. Price Declines - Products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai: down 7 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai: down 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: down 2 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Data Collection - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2]. New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Moutai products, including the iMoutai platform selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Boutique Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, is expected to influence market prices significantly [2][3].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 9, following a period of decline, with an overall increase of 16 yuan in total price for a packaged set of these products, now totaling 8998 yuan [1][6][7] Price Trends - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with notable price increases for several products: - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai increased by 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 rose by 7 yuan per bottle - Gu Qing Gong Gu 20 and Xijiu Junpin both increased by 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases - Meanwhile, prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai decreased by 7 yuan and 6 yuan per bottle respectively [1][7][10] Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known liquors [2][8] Market Influences - The launch of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform is expected to have a significant impact on the market prices for these products [2][8] Product Launches - iMoutai announced adjustments to the release schedule for Premium Moutai and other products, with specific purchase limits set for consumers starting January 9, 2023, and additional products being introduced on January 10, 2023 [3][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 9, following a period of decline, with an overall increase of 16 yuan, bringing the total price for a package of these products to 8998 yuan [1][6]. Price Trends - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with notable price increases for several products: - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai increased by 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 rose by 7 yuan per bottle - Gu Qing Gong Gu 20 and Xijiu Junpin both increased by 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases - Meanwhile, prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai decreased by 7 yuan and 6 yuan per bottle, respectively [1][7][10]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable pricing data for well-known liquor products [2][8]. Market Impact of New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle is expected to influence the market prices significantly, with the potential for a magnetic effect on retail prices [2][8]. Product Launches and Adjustments - iMoutai announced adjustments to the release schedule for Premium Moutai and other products, with specific purchase limits and scheduled release dates throughout the year, including key periods such as the Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8].