事件描述 2025 年4 月23 日，亚钾国际发布2024 年年度报告。公司2024年实现营收收入35.48 亿元，同比下滑 8.97%；实现归母净利润9.50 亿元，同比下滑23.05%；实现扣非归母净利润8.92 亿元，同比下滑 30.00%。 公司2025Q1 实现营业收入12.13 亿元，同比增长91.47%，环比增长13.81%；实现归母净利润3.84 亿 元，同比增长373.53%，环比下滑11.07%；实现扣非归母净利润3.84 亿元，同比增长376.02%，环比增 长1.88%。 我们预计公司2025 年-2027 年分别实现归母净利润15.8、21.41、29.52 亿元（2025-2026 年前值分别为 10.74、13.99 亿元），对应PE 分别为17、13、9 倍。维持公司"增持"评级。 风险提示 （1）应收账款回收风险； （2）下游应用领域变化风险； （3）国际局势及汇率波动风险； （4）行业政策变化风险。 全年钾肥产销同步增长，年末行业景气度有所回升公司产能释放有序推进，年产量再创历史新高；但受 港口库存和市场需求影响，钾肥价格走势呈现先跌后稳，年末呈现回升态势；价格中枢下移，全 ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一季度业绩同比大幅提升，矿建加速推进 ——亚钾国际（000893）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 亚钾国际 | 14.3% | 51.4% | 56.6% | | 沪深 300 | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/25 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 29.22 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.65-29.30 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 27,000.78 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed significant growth in Q4 and Q1 of 2025, indicating a potential recovery trend in the upcoming periods [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 million yuan, down 23.1% [1] - The company's Q4 2024 revenue was 1.07 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.8% [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company produced 1.815 million tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with sales of 1.741 million tons, up 8.4% [2] - In Q4 2024, production reached 491,700 tons, with sales of 500,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.4% [2] - For Q1 2025, production and sales continued to grow, reaching 506,200 tons and 528,300 tons respectively [2] Group 3: Pricing and Market Conditions - The average selling price of potassium fertilizer in H2 2024 was 2,051 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4%, while the annual average price was 1,989 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the market average price for potassium fertilizer was 2,888 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.1% [3] Group 4: Expansion Projects - The company is advancing the construction of its second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects, with significant progress made in the mining construction work [3] - The company aims to ensure the projects are operational and stable in the long term [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.64 billion, 2.43 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 72.1%, 48.4%, and 25.9% respectively [3] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 15, 10, and 8 times for the same periods [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, with both production and sales of potash fertilizer continuing to grow. The company is also advancing its potash production capacity expansion and non-potash business [1][5] - The 2024 annual report indicated a revenue of 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 23.05% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to leverage tax incentives in Laos to reduce costs and is focused on completing its potash projects, aiming for a production capacity of nearly 900,000 tons per year [5] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to increase significantly from 3.548 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.55 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.6% [7][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 950 million yuan in 2024 to 1.822 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 91.7% [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.97 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.3 [7][10]

2025年初，正值我国春耕关键时期，钾肥价格快速上行。亚钾国际（000893.SZ）进一步加大回国保供 力度，第一季度销量52.83万吨（同比提升77%），回国量42.6万吨，占比高达81%，保供力度创新高。 2024年公司钾肥销量174.14万吨，其中134.66万吨钾肥反哺国内销售，约占总销量的77%，为我国钾肥 保供稳价作出了积极贡献。 当前，因关税贸易摩擦全球农业供应链重构，钾肥市场也受到显著冲击，还伴随着白俄罗斯、俄罗斯减 产的困境，全球粮食安全正面临严峻挑战。亚钾国际作为中资企业海外钾盐开发的典范，不断扩产放量 并加大回国保供力度，筑牢我国粮食安全防线。 贸易摩擦的影响不仅限于农产品领域，对上游化肥行业的影响亦不容忽视。化肥是促进农作物提质增量 的核心因素之一，现阶段快速提高大豆产量的最重要路径为增加化肥尤其是钾肥的施用。钾是促成油脂 合成不可或缺的因素，大豆对钾的需求量为氮肥的0.55倍、磷肥的2.22倍，钾肥的稳定供应同样也是全 球粮食贸易关注的核心。 近期，美国对加拿大钾肥加征关税的举措，加剧了全球钾肥市场的不确定性。加拿大是全球最大钾肥出 口国，全球出口占比约41%。美国是加拿大最大钾肥进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yara International (000893) with a target price of 36.00 CNY [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a record high in potash production, with profit per ton continuing to improve [1] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 5,707 million CNY in 2025, representing a 60.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 1,847 million CNY, reflecting a 94.4% increase compared to 2024 [2] - The company benefits from a reduction in corporate income tax in Laos, which will decrease from 35% to 20% from 2024 to 2028 [6] - The company is advancing its second and third million-ton projects in Laos, which are expected to enhance production capacity and reduce overall costs [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,548 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 9.0% [2] - The company reported a net profit of 950 million CNY for 2024, down 23.0% year-on-year [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 2.00 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with 2025 projected at 55.3% compared to 49.5% in 2024 [7] Production and Sales Insights - In 2024, the company produced 181.5 million tons of potash, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, with sales reaching 174.1 million tons, up 8.4% [6] - For Q1 2025, production and sales of potash were 50.62 million tons and 52.83 million tons, respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [6] - The average selling price of potash is expected to rise due to increased domestic demand and reduced production from overseas competitors [6] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a combined expense ratio of 11.2% in Q1 2025 [6] - The company is also expanding its non-potash business, with a 46% stake in Asian Bromine, which is expected to contribute positively to investment income [6] - Future plans include extending the company's reach into bromine, salt, coal, and compound fertilizer industries to enhance competitiveness [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, with both production and sales of potash fertilizer continuing to grow. The company is also advancing its potash production capacity expansion and non-potash business [1][5] - The 2024 annual report indicated a revenue of 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 23.05% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [4][5] Financial Summary - The company plans to maintain a non-dividend policy for 2024, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.822 billion yuan, 2.408 billion yuan, and 2.926 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 1.97 yuan, 2.61 yuan, and 3.17 yuan [4][7] - The company’s potash production in 2024 is expected to reach 1.8154 million tons, with a sales volume of 1.7415 million tons. The average price per ton is estimated at 1,989 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.0% [5][9] - The company is benefiting from tax incentives in Laos, which will reduce the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% and the export tariff from 7% to 1.5% from 2024 to 2028 [5][10]

智通财经记者 | 张艺 4月24日，钾肥龙头亚钾国际（000893.SZ）交出一份充满戏剧性的成绩单：年报双降，一季报倍增。 亚钾国际2024年实现营业收入35.48亿元，同比下滑8.97%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润9.50亿元，同比下滑23.05%。 为此，亚钾国际正努力将产能提升至目标300万吨，今年能否以量补价仍待观察。 此外，亚钾国际今年将享受老挝新的关税及所得税优惠政策，一定程度上可增厚利润。 亚钾国际单季归母净利润 2025年一季度，形势反转。亚钾国际一季度实现营业收入12.13亿元，同比增长91.47%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.84亿元，同比增 长373.53%。 从单季数据来看，亚钾国际的业绩拐点发生在去年四季度。这一季，公司归母净利润已达4.32亿元，同比、环比均有超过70%的增长。 主营业务单一的亚钾国际兴也氯化钾，衰也氯化钾。今年国际形势日趋复杂，公司依然面临着氯化钾价格大幅波动的风险，业绩"V型反 转"趋势能确立吗？ "钾肥价格与供需关系有关。"亚钾国际人士对智通财经表示，今年国内没有新增产能，国际上也只有替换产能。有机构认为，今年全球 钾肥供需呈现紧平衡态势。 量增价跌吞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in potassium fertilizer prices has led to a substantial growth in the performance of Yaqi International in the first quarter of 2025, with a notable rise in both revenue and net profit [1][4]. Company Performance - In Q1 2025, Yaqi International reported revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53% [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant increase in production and sales volume, with Q1 production reaching 506,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, and sales volume at 528,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77% [5]. Industry Context - Yaqi International is a major player in the potassium fertilizer industry, being one of the first Chinese companies to engage in overseas potassium salt development and the largest potassium fertilizer producer in Southeast Asia [2]. - The company's performance is heavily influenced by global potassium fertilizer price fluctuations, with previous years showing rapid growth in revenue and profit during price surges [3]. Strategic Developments - Yaqi International is in the process of acquiring the remaining 28.1447% stake in its subsidiary Beijing Nongka Resources Technology Co., Ltd. for 1.782 billion yuan, which will enhance its production capacity [1][5]. - The company holds significant potassium salt mining rights in Laos, with estimated potassium chloride resources of approximately 1 billion tons [5]. Shareholder Changes - The major shareholder of Yaqi International is set to change, with China Agricultural Production Materials Group transferring its 5% stake to Huineng Group for 1.055 billion yuan, making Huineng the largest shareholder [6]. - Huineng Group has previously invested in Yaqi International and is a significant player in the coal, electricity, and chemical industries, with substantial assets and profits [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance significantly improved in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 91.47% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 373.53% [6]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.716 billion, 2.142 billion, and 2.750 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 80.50%, 24.85%, and 28.40% [6][8]. - The company is currently advancing its second and third million-ton projects, which are expected to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency in the future [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 3.548 billion yuan (down 8.97%) - 2025: 5.493 billion yuan (up 54.83%) - 2026: 6.423 billion yuan (up 16.92%) - 2027: 8.028 billion yuan (up 25.00%) [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 950 million yuan (down 23.05%) - 2025: 1.716 billion yuan (up 80.50%) - 2026: 2.142 billion yuan (up 24.85%) - 2027: 2.750 billion yuan (up 28.40%) [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.03 yuan - 2025: 1.86 yuan - 2026: 2.32 yuan - 2027: 2.98 yuan [2][8] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)**: - 2024: 26.20 - 2025: 14.52 - 2026: 11.63 - 2027: 9.06 [2][8] Operational Highlights - The company achieved stable production in its potassium chloride operations, with production and sales volumes of 1.8154 million and 1.7414 million tons respectively in 2024, marking year-on-year increases of 10.24% and 8.42% [6]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2024 was 1,989.47 yuan per ton, down 17.04% year-on-year, impacting profitability [6]. - The company benefited from tax incentives in Laos, reducing its profit tax rate from 35% to 20% and export tax from 7% to 1.5% [6].