Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in domestic potassium fertilizer prices, which have risen by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices for domestic 60% white potassium at 3300 yuan/ton, border trade 62% white potassium at 3400 yuan/ton, and port 62% white potassium at 3500 yuan/ton. The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, and the industry is expected to remain highly prosperous for the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic potassium fertilizer inventory is at a low level, and there is an optimistic outlook for spring planting potassium fertilizer prices to rise [1]. - As of January 15, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was 2.51 million tons, a 3,000-ton increase month-on-month but a 450,000-ton decrease year-on-year, with a need for 1.5 million tons of state reserves to be replenished [1]. - The annual potassium fertilizer "big contract" for 2025 was signed at $348/ton, a $2 increase year-on-year, primarily due to significant pressure for spring supply [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low current inventory levels, indicating substantial potential for price increases [2][3]. - In December, domestic potassium chloride imports were 1.46 million tons, a 3% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase, with a total expected import of 12.61 million tons for 2025, remaining flat year-on-year [2]. - The supply side is not expected to see new capacity additions in 2025, with only limited capacity expected from companies like Yara International and the Nezhinsky mine in Belarus in 2026-2027 [2]. Group 3: Fertilizer Price Trends - The global fertilizer market is entering a high-price and tight balance phase, with nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer supply disruptions causing price increases, while potassium fertilizer remains a cost-effective option [3]. - The FOB price for Middle Eastern granular urea is currently between $420-430/ton, and the CFR price for urea in Brazil and Southeast Asia is between $430-440/ton, indicating a new high price platform for global urea [3]. - The price of MAP and DAP in Brazil has increased by approximately $40/ton since the beginning of the year, with current CFR prices between $680-700/ton, supported by rising production costs [3].

报告期内，公司经营业绩同比上升，主要原因一是公司钾肥生产线稳定生产，钾肥产量较上年同期持续 提升。二是公司秉承着国际和国内双循环、境内外联动的弹性多元化销售策略，持续深耕国际及国内市 场，销量较上年同期也实现增长。三是受国际和国内钾肥价格上涨影响，公司钾肥销售价格同比上升， 公司钾肥业务毛利率同比上升。 格隆汇1月23日丨亚钾国际(000893.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润166,000万元～ 197,000万元，比上年同期增长75.00%～107.00%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润166,000万元～197,000 万元，比上年同期增长86.00%～121.00%。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月23日，亚钾国际(000893.SZ)公告称，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 16.60亿元至19.70亿元，比上年同期增长75.00%~107.00%。业绩变动原因：钾肥产销量同比增长，叠加 销售价格及毛利率上升。 ...

亚钾国际公告，预计2025年度净利润为16.6亿元到19.7亿元，同比增长75.00%～107.00%。报告期内， 公司经营业绩同比上升，主要原因一是公司钾肥生产线稳定生产，钾肥产量较上年同期持续提升。二是 公司秉承着国际和国内双循环、境内外联动的弹性多元化销售策略，持续深耕国际及国内市场，销量较 上年同期也实现增长。三是受国际和国内钾肥价格上涨影响，公司钾肥销售价格同比上升，公司钾肥业 务毛利率同比上升。 ...

单位：万元 证券代码：000893 证券简称：亚钾国际 公告编号：2026-008 亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员（除董事长郭柏春先生，被采取强制措施）保证信息披露的 内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为正值且属于同向上升 50%以上情形 | 项 目 | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | | 166,000 | ～ | 197,000 | 95,046.59 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 75.00% | ～ | 107.00% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 | | 166,000 | ～ | 197,000 | 89,181.04 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 86.00% | ～ | 121.00% | | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | | 1.82 | ～ | 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 钾肥行业点评 全球氯化钾供需紧张，2026 年需求、价格有望超预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  石油石化 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 近期，国内钾肥价格较年初已经上涨 50-100 元/吨，目前国产 60%白钾 3300 元/吨，边贸 62%白钾 3400 元 /吨，港口 62%白钾 3500 元/吨。 1）国内钾肥库存低位，看好春耕钾肥价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，2025 国内氯化钾合计产量 582 万吨， 同比-38 万吨（yoy-6%）；截至 1 月 15 日，国内氯化钾港口库存 251 万吨，环比+3 万吨，同比-45 万吨， 且国储仍需 150 万吨补库需 ...

Market Overview - US stock market continues to rise, with Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55% [1] - Meta shares increased by 5.66%, marking the largest single-day gain since July 31 [1] - Tesla shares rose by 4.15%, while Microsoft and Amazon saw increases of at least 1.31% [1] Company Developments - Intel's Q1 guidance is disappointing, leading to a post-market drop of over 10% [2] - Nvidia completed a $5 billion investment in Intel in Q4 [2] - Tesla plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by the end of this year or next year [3] - OpenAI is quietly developing humanoid robots with a team of 100 in San Francisco [4] - Meta's Threads platform has surpassed 400 million monthly active users and is launching ads globally [5] Commodity Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400, indicating that wealthy individuals are competing with central banks for limited physical reserves [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.97%, while silver futures increased by 4.05%, both reaching historical highs [7] - US natural gas futures prices surged by 81% within three days, reaching the highest level since December 2022 [7] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [8] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments encourage horizontal mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical retail sector [12] - The State Council's Food Safety Office is drafting national standards for prepared dishes and will seek public opinions soon [12] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant developments, with Alibaba's T-HEAD planning for an independent IPO [10] - The prepared food sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality and safety in the supply chain [11] - The retail pharmacy industry is expected to accelerate consolidation, with a projected decrease in the number of pharmacies by nearly 20,000 since Q4 2024 [13] Financial Projections - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year [17] - Shengmei Shanghai anticipates revenues between 6.68 billion and 6.88 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 18.91% to 22.47% [18] - Runtu Co. forecasts a net profit of 600 million to 700 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 181.05% to 227.89% [18]

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 1.52% on January 21, with Bai'ao Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Bai'ao Chemical's stock price rose by 10.01% to 38.13, with a trading volume of 384,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.424 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 1.297 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 989 million yuan [2][3] - Salt Lake Co. had a main fund net inflow of 435 million yuan, but retail investors had a net outflow of 382 million yuan [3] - Bai'ao Chemical experienced a main fund net inflow of 230 million yuan, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 119 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a 1.15% increase, indicating a potential for a three-day winning streak [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 9%, and Sankeshu, which rose over 6%, among others [1] - The basic chemical sector has seen significant inflows, with over 11.3 billion yuan in net inflows on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [1][2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities expresses optimism about the chemical industry, highlighting a collective shift in corporate strategies that may lead to improved market conditions [3] - The report identifies five key areas for investment: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound, as it tracks a specialized index covering major themes in the chemical industry [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.15%, aiming for a third consecutive daily gain [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 9%, and Sankeshu, which rose over 6%, along with other companies like Yaqi International and Hebang Bio, which increased by over 4% [1][8] - The basic chemical sector has seen significant inflows, with over 11.3 billion CNY in net inflows on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 sectors, and a total of 31.3 billion CNY over the past five days, ranking second [9][10] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities expresses optimism about the chemical industry, highlighting a collective shift in corporate strategies that could lead to improved market conditions [10] - The report identifies two key dimensions for investment opportunities: leading companies with significant market share and those with competitive advantages that can enhance profitability [10] - The report specifically favors five areas: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes [10] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, while the other half focuses on various sub-sectors [11] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for more efficient exposure to the sector [11]