证券研究报告 2024年10月21日 HUAAN SECURITIES 产能扩张为基，盈利穿越周期 — — 太 阳 纸 业 的 成 长 性 复 盘 分析师：徐 偲 SAC执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 SAC执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com 目录 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------|------------------------------------| | 0 | 前言：核心观点 | | | 1 | | 复盘：产能扩张为基，盈利穿越周期 | | | | 总结：长周期成长股，核心竞争力显著 | | | 3 | 风险提示 | 核心观点 3 ➢ 复盘：产能扩张为基，盈利穿越周期 • 我们根据公式"归母净利润=营业收入*（毛利率-中间费用率"对各因素对公司归母净利润的增长贡献进行拆解。从历史复 盘来看，1）营业总收入： 2012-2023年，营业收入增长对公司的归母净利润增长贡献明显，根据公式"营业收入=销量*单价" 进一步拆解，公司的销量始终 ...

证券代码：002078 证券简称：太阳纸业 公告编号：2024-033 山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股票交易异常波动情况 5、公司控股股东和实际控制人在公司股票异常波动期间不存在买卖公司股 票的情况。 三、是否存在应披露而未披露的重大信息的说明 公司董事会确认，公司目前没有任何根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 等有关规定应予以披露而未披露的事项或与该事项有关的筹划、商谈、意向、协 议等；公司董事会也未获悉公司有根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等有关 规定应予以披露而未披露的、对公司股票交易价格产生较大影响的信息；公司前 期披露的信息不存在需要更正、补充之处。 1 山东太阳纸业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票（证券简称：太阳纸 业，证券代码：002078）于 2024 年 9 月 27 日、9 月 30 日、10 月 8 日连续三个 交易日内日收盘价格跌幅偏离值累计超过 20%，根据《深圳证券交易所交易规则》 的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情况。 二、公司关注及核实情况说明 针对公 ...

2024 年 09 月 24 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 14.7 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------|----------------|-------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 公司基本信息 | | | | | 产业别 | | | 轻工制造 | | A 股价(2024/9/23) | | | 12.90 | | 深证成指 (2024/9/23) | | | 8435.70 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 16.22/11.13 | | 总发行股数 (百万) | | | 2794.57 | | A 股数(百万 ) | | | 2777.23 | | A 市值(亿元 ) | | | 358.26 | | 主要股东 | | 山东太阳控股集 | | | | | | 团有限公司 | | | | | (44.73%) | | 每股净值(元 ) | | | 9.98 | | | | | | | 股价 / 账面净值 | | | 1.29 | | | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 太阳纸业（002078）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） 经营表现稳健，林浆纸一体化布局深化 目标价：16.3 元 当前价：11.90 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年中报。上半年，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 205.2/17.5/18.2 亿元，同比+6.1%/+40.5%/+49.2%。单二季度，公司实现营收/ 归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 103.4/8.0/8.6 亿元，同比+8.4%/+16.9%/+30.0%。 评论： ❖ 产销量稳步增长，上半年业绩表现稳健。上半年，公司广西南宁园区产能爬坡 叠加技改项目稳步推进，纸和浆合计产量同比+20%。分产品看，24H1 非涂布 文化纸 / 铜 版 纸 / 牛 皮 箱 板 纸 / 淋 膜 原 纸 / 生 活 用 纸 / 溶 解 浆 实 现 营 收 70.2/21.2/52.0/4.4/10.4/17.8 亿元，同比+7.3%/+34.3%/+14.1%/-35.9%/+15.4%/- 7.1%。铜版纸产能明显增长，牛皮箱板纸中高端产品占比提升。 ❖ 盈利能力改善，费用率管控良好。1）24H1，公司实现毛利率 17. ...

证券代码：002078 证券简称：太阳纸业 公告编号：2024-031 山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 1、股东大会届次：2024 年第二次临时股东大会 2、会议召集人：公司董事会 3、会议主持人：董事长李洪信先生 4、会议召开方式：本次股东大会采用现场表决与网络投票相结合的方式召 开。 5、会议召开的日期、时间： 2024年第二次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、本次股东大会没有出现否决议案的情形； 2、本次股东大会不涉及变更前次股东大会决议的情形。 一、会议召开情况 （1）现场会议时间：2024 年 9 月 5 日下午 14:00。 （2）网络投票时间：2024 年 9 月 5 日。 通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为 2024 年 9 月 5 日 的交易时间，即 9:15—9:25，9:30—11:30 和 13:00—15:00； 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统进行网络投票的时间为 2024 年 9 月 5 日（现场股东大会召开当日）上午 9:15，结束时间为 2024 年 9 月 5 日 ...

山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 关于回购注销部分限制性股票的减资公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002078 证券简称：太阳纸业 公告编号：2024-032 本次公司回购注销部分限制性股票将导致公司股本和注册资本减少，根据 《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）等相关法律、法规及《公 司章程》的规定，公司特此通知债权人：债权人自本公告之日起 45 日内，有权 要求公司清偿债务或者提供相应的担保。债权人未在规定期限内行使上述权利的， 公司将按照法定程序继续实施本次回购注销和减少注册资本相关事宜。 公司各债权人如要求公司清偿债务或提供相应担保的，应根据《公司法》等 法律、法规的有关规定向公司提出书面要求，并随附有关证明文件。债权人未在 规定期限内行使上述权利的，不会因此影响其债权的有效性，相关债务（义务） 将由公司根据原债权文件的约定继续履行。 特此公告。 1 山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 董 事 会 二○二四年九月六日 2 山东太阳纸业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 5 日召开 2024 年第二次临时股 ...

北京德恒律师事务所 关于山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的 法律意见 北京市西城区金融街 19 号富凯大厦 B 座 12 层 电话:010-52682888 传真:010-52682999 邮编:100033 北京德恒律师事务所受山东太阳纸业股份有限公司（以下简称"太阳纸业" 或"公司"）委托，指派本所律师出席太阳纸业 2024 年第二次临时股东大会（以 下简称"本次股东大会"），对本次股东大会的合法性进行见证并出具本法律意 见。 本所律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称"《公司法》")、《中 华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、中国证券监督管理委员会 《上市公司股东大会规则》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司股东大会网络投票实施 细则》（以下简称"《深交所网络投票细则》"）等现行有效的法律、法规和规 范性文件，以及《山东太阳纸业股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）、 《山东太阳纸业股份有限公司股东大会议事规则》（以下简称"《股东大会议事 规则》"）的规定，出具本法律意见。 关于山东太阳纸业股份有限公司 北京德恒律师事务所 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的法律意见 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for performance relative to the market [6][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 20.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.758 billion yuan, up 40.5% year-on-year [3][6]. - The report highlights the stability of the company's chemical pulp and dissolving pulp segments, with expected profit expansion due to rising prices [2][6]. - The company is positioned for growth through its integrated forest-pulp-paper strategy, with ongoing expansion in plantation areas and production capacity [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 41.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3% [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is estimated at 3.251 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.4% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be 16.3% in 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.4% [3][7]. Market Comparison - As of August 30, 2024, the company's closing price was 12.62 yuan, with a market capitalization of 35,049 million yuan [1]. - The company's price-to-book ratio is 1.3, and the dividend yield is 2.38% based on the most recent dividend announcement [1]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a seasonal improvement in demand for cultural paper and boxboard in Q4 2024, which is expected to stabilize pulp prices and improve profitability [6]. - The company is leveraging its multi-product strategy to mitigate cyclical disruptions and optimize costs through its integrated operations [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth with a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 20.52 billion (+6.1%) and a net profit of 1.76 billion (+40.5%) [1]. - The production capacity is steadily advancing, with strong sales in cultural paper and boxboard paper, although profitability in Q2 showed a slight decline due to high pulp prices and weak downstream demand [1]. - The company is expected to face pressure on cultural paper profitability in Q3 but may see improvements in Q4 due to seasonal demand [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a revenue of 20.52 billion, with a net profit of 1.76 billion and a non-recurring net profit of 1.82 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.5% and 49.2% respectively [1]. - For Q2 2024, the revenue was 10.34 billion (+8.4%), with a net profit of 0.80 billion (+16.9%) and a non-recurring net profit of 0.86 billion (+30.0%) [1]. Product Performance - The cultural paper segment saw strong sales, with non-coated paper and coated paper revenues of 7.02 billion (+7.3%) and 2.12 billion (+34.3%) respectively in 2024H1 [1]. - Boxboard paper production was at full capacity, with revenues of 5.20 billion (+14.1%) for kraft boxboard and 0.07 billion (+528.9%) for corrugated raw paper [1]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q2 was 17.2%, reflecting a 1.0 percentage point increase, with effective control over expense ratios [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing overall good control [1]. Capacity Expansion - New production capacities are being steadily deployed, with significant projects underway in Shandong and Nanning, expected to enhance the company's integrated operations in pulp and paper [1]. - The company has established a production capacity of 1.5 million tons of pulp and paper in Laos, with ongoing expansion plans [1]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.41 billion, 3.77 billion, and 4.24 billion for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 13% respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with revenue of 10.3 billion yuan (up 8% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 802 million yuan (up 17% year-on-year). The non-recurring net profit was 865 million yuan (up 30% year-on-year). An asset disposal loss of 84 million yuan was recorded due to the clearance of old equipment at the Nanning base [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that the decline in operating profit was primarily due to a decrease in the profitability of cultural paper, while other products showed little change. The overall sales volume slightly increased quarter-on-quarter. The price of pulp remained high, and the profitability of pulp products is expected to remain good. Cultural paper prices stabilized in June after a slight drop in mid-April [6][7]. - Looking ahead, the third quarter is expected to be a transitional period, with improvements anticipated in the fourth quarter. The company plans to increase production and maintain profitability despite seasonal pressures in the third quarter [6][7]. Summary by Sections Q2 Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 802 million yuan, up 17% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 865 million yuan, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year. An asset disposal loss of 84 million yuan was recorded [5][6]. Q2 Analysis - The decline in operating profit was mainly due to reduced profitability in cultural paper, with other products showing stable profitability. The overall sales volume saw a slight increase, and the price of pulp remained high, supporting good profitability for pulp products. Cultural paper prices experienced a slight decline but stabilized in June [6][7]. Outlook for H2 - The third quarter is expected to be a transitional period, with potential improvements in the fourth quarter. The company plans to increase production and maintain profitability despite seasonal pressures in the third quarter. The new production capacities are expected to be launched in 2024 and 2025, with a focus on enhancing cost advantages and operational synergies [6][7].