Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% year-over-year [1][2] - The gross margin and net margin have significantly improved, with the gross margin at 46.30% (up 3.48 percentage points) and net margin at 14.50% (up 2.53 percentage points), primarily due to lower raw material costs and product mix upgrades [2][3] - The company has seen strong performance in high-end products, with revenue from high-end products reaching 3.904 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.97%, and accounting for 70.84% of total revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 810 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 6.56% and 29.95% respectively [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 46.30%, and net profit margin increased to 14.50% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels for 2024: ordinary channel 5.155 billion yuan (+6.00%), supermarkets 198 million yuan (+46.71%), night venues 88 million yuan (-4.72%), and e-commerce 71 million yuan (+20.51%) [3] - High-end products showed the highest growth, with sales volume of high-end beer increasing by 13.96% year-over-year [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing product strength by integrating elements of sports, music, and food, and hosting events like the Pearl River Beer Music Festival [4][10] - The company is actively pursuing high-end product development and has introduced new products to align with market trends [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 896 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 10.60%, 7.95%, and 9.46% [10][12]

量价齐升，毛销差明显提升 珠江啤酒(002461) ——珠江啤酒 2024 年报点评 | 2 | | --- | | 工壇 H | | 酒 | | (002 | | 2461 1 | 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 11.80 | | | 上次预测: | 11.20 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 10.14 | 本报告导读： 公司 2024 全年销量表现优于行业，吨价和结构提升趋势延续，吨成本明显下降，毛 销差扩张明显，2024Q4 预计进入渠道去库存状态为 2025 年增长奠定基础。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5,378 | 5,731 | 6,102 ...

智通财经记者 | 张艺 啤酒界"华南王"珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）披露了一份史上最好成绩单。 珠江啤酒2024年实现营业收入57.31亿元，同比增长6.65%；归母净利润8.10亿元，同比增长29.95%。两项指标双双创下历史新高，也优 于行业整体表现。 智通财经发现，珠江啤酒业绩创新高的同时，面临三大隐忧。首先，公司靠产品高端化来提高利润水平，但其中高端产品占比已高，提 升空间有限。 其次，募资使用效率问题。七年前定增募资的43亿元，还有26亿元躺在资金专户收利息，多个项目推进缓慢。 去年年报透露出最重要的问题在于，珠江啤酒全国化进程不进反退，在整体营收增长的同时，非华南地区的营收下降超10%。 显然这不是管理层想看到的。正因全国化迟滞不前，公司营收增长也十分缓慢，规模已远远落后"啤酒五强"公司。 那么，珠江啤酒全国化为何难以有效拓展？公司下一个增长引擎在哪？ 珠江啤酒证券部人士回应智通财经，公司正努力通过持续完善全国营销网络，加强广东省外市场的开拓，增强公司在其他地区的影响 力。同时该人士认为，公司中高端市场还有一定的增长空间。 量价齐升拉动业绩 营收突破新高，归母净利润跳过7亿元区间，直接站上8亿元 ...

➢ 量价表现亮眼好于行业平均，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24 年公 司啤酒收入 55.11 亿元，同比+7%，分量价来看，销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62% （同期我国规上啤酒企业产量同比-0.6%），吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%，预计 量价均好于行业平均。产品结构来看，高档/中档/大众化啤酒产品分别 39.04/12.39/3.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5% ，占比分别 71%/22%/7%，同比+4.3/-4.7/+0.4pct，产品结构持续提升。在 24 年消费整 体下游需求偏弱背景下公司逆势表现，如我们此前观点，预计主要系 1）珠啤非 现饮占比处于行业较高水平，24 年下游餐饮及夜场恢复整体较为疲软，公司受 冲击相对较小；2）餐饮渠道公司持续发力运作 97 纯生，一方面渠道利润周期较 竞品成熟单品更具竞争力，同时公司紧抓终端精耕细作，97 纯生大单品持续抢 夺份额，以上两点共同促成公司收入端α。24Q4 公司营收 8.44 亿元，同比 +2.11%，销量 25.77 万吨，同比+2.1%，千升酒收入 3276 元，同比+0.1%。 ➢ 成本红利 ...

珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）2024 年年报点评 量价表现亮眼，盈利显著向上 2025 年 03 月 29 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营业 总收入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 57.31/8.10/7.62 亿元，同比 +6.56%/+29.95%/+36.79%。经测算，24Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非 归母净利润实现 8.44/0.04/-0.06 亿元，营收同比+2.11%；归母净利润同期亏 损 0.2 亿元，扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润同期亏损 0.47 亿元，显著减亏。 ➢ 量价表现亮眼好于行业平均，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24 年公 司啤酒收入 55.11 亿元，同比+7%，分量价来看，销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62% （同期我国规上啤酒企业产量同比-0.6%），吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%，预计 量价均好于行业平均。产品结构来看，高档/中档/大众化啤酒产品分别 39.04/12.39/3.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5% ，占比分别 7 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.56% and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Revenue Breakdown - The beer business generated 5.511 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 7.04% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue by channel: 5.155 billion yuan from ordinary sales, 198 million yuan from supermarkets, 88 million yuan from night venues, and 71 million yuan from e-commerce, with growth rates of 6%, 46.71%, -4.72%, and 20.51% respectively [1] - Gross margins by channel: 44.64% for ordinary sales, 58.44% for supermarkets, 36.33% for night venues, and 49.61% for e-commerce [1] Regional Performance - The South China region contributed 95.02% of total revenue, approximately 5.491 billion yuan, while other regions accounted for only 4.98%, a decrease from 6.81% in the first half of the year [1] Product Category Performance - Revenue from premium, mid-range, and mass-market beer products reached 3.904 billion yuan, 1.239 billion yuan, and 368 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 13.97%, -11.41%, and 13.48% respectively [2] - The beer industry in China is entering a stable development phase, with significant competition but opportunities for structural upgrades in consumption [2] Industry Context - Despite a general decline in the domestic beer industry, Zhujiang Brewery's volume and price performance outpaced the industry, benefiting from strong brand recognition and the successful iteration of its premium product "97 Pure Draft" [3] - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, with large-scale enterprises producing 35.213 million kiloliters [2] - The trend towards quality consumption continues to influence the market, with consumers favoring personalized and distinctive products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer with a target price of 11.76, compared to the last closing price of 10.30 [1]. Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million, up 29.95% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 762 million, reflecting a 36.79% increase [4][5]. - The sales volume of beer in 2024 was affected by demand, with a slight decline in overall production in China. However, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.6% to 143.96 million tons and the average price per ton rose by 4.3% to 3828 [5][6]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, launching new products like Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang Beer 1985, while the flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is expected to maintain double-digit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 844 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, with net profit soaring by 118.74% to 4 million [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 reached 46.30%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost optimization [5][10]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 5% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has shown resilience in the South China market, with revenue from the region increasing by 7.5% to 5.49 billion, while other regions experienced a decline of 10.4% [5]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, with a net decrease of 114 distributors in Guangdong but an increase of 16 in other regions [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing structural upgrades and cost reductions as key drivers for improved profitability and market competitiveness [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 760 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit of 4 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 20 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - The company’s beer volume and price increased by 2.6% and 3.8% respectively in 2024, with Q4 showing a volume increase of 2.1% and stable pricing [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - In 2024, beer sales reached 1.44 million tons, with a price increase of 3.8%, reflecting a structural improvement in product offerings [2] - High-end products, particularly the 97 Pure Draft beer, saw a sales increase of 14.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2] - Revenue from different sales channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets and e-commerce channels growing by 46.7% and 20.5% respectively, while night venues experienced a decline of 4.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45 yuan and 0.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit expected at 23% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 12.60 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28x, reflecting confidence in continued growth and market share improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 810 million RMB, up 30.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s beer sales volume increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a price increase of 3.8%, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [2][3] - The report highlights the structural upgrade in product offerings, particularly the high-end products like 97 Pure Draft, which benefited from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 2.5 percentage points to 14.1% [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beer, yeast feed, packaging materials, and restaurant leasing services in 2024 was 5.551 billion, 5 million, 60 million, and 90 million RMB respectively, with beer revenue growing by 7.0% year-on-year [2] - The sales revenue from different channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets seeing a significant increase of 46.7% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The report projects an EPS of 0.45 RMB for 2025 and 0.52 RMB for 2026, with a target price of 12.60 RMB based on a PE ratio of 28x for 2025 [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption and the continued growth of high-end products [3][4]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 27 日 珠江啤酒 (002461) ——产品结构升级 原材料成本下行释放利润弹性 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 中性（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.52/6.99 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 22,797 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,373.75/10,668.10 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.75 | | 资产负债率% | 33.51 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,213/2,213 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 07-27 08-27 09-27 1 ...