Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with anticipated growth in the 1.6T optical engine and CPO, NPO products [1] - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 1.88 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.0% to 60.0% [3] - The report highlights the alleviation of material bottlenecks and the expected ramp-up in the 1.6T optical engine production, driven by strong demand for AI hardware [4] - The company is positioned as a key player in the supply chain for NVIDIA's CPO products, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities [5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects revenues to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 5.41 billion yuan in 2025, 10.55 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.64 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 66.4%, 95.0%, and 57.7% respectively [8] - Net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.01 billion yuan, 3.78 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 49.3%, 88.6%, and 47.4% [8] - The report indicates a diluted EPS of 2.58 yuan for 2025, 4.87 yuan for 2026, and 7.18 yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 115.4, 61.2, and 41.5 [7][8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the company is likely to benefit from the strong demand for 1.6T optical modules driven by capital expenditures in North America [7] - The company is expected to play a significant role in the CPO/NPO market, particularly in the Scaleup segment, which is anticipated to have a larger growth curve compared to Scaleout [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in optical communication concept stocks in the U.S. market, driven by advancements in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology and supportive government policies [1][2]. - Companies such as Credo Technology, Corning, Ciena Technologies, and Lumentum have shown notable stock price increases, indicating strong market interest in optical communication technologies [1]. - NVIDIA is advancing the scale deployment of CPO technology to address the growing power consumption and reliability challenges of AI supercomputers, integrating optical engines into the same package as switching chips [1]. Group 2 - In the A-share market, as of February 6, ten CPO concept stocks have received net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, with Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 2.542 billion yuan and 2.21 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Tianfu Communication has reported that its 1.6T optical engine products have entered normal delivery stages, and the company is coordinating supply chain resources to enhance production capacity [2]. - New Yisong expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 231.24% to 248.86%, and has successfully mass-produced and delivered 1.6T optical module products [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.41% to close at 4123.09 points, with a daily high of 4123.16 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.17% to close at 14208.44 points, reaching a high of 14211.7 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.98%, closing at 3332.77 points, with a peak of 3340.33 points [1] Margin Trading and Securities Lending - The total margin trading and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,556.13 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 26,387.82 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 168.31 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 6.15 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 13,475.12 billion yuan, up by 4.76 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 13,081.01 billion yuan, increasing by 1.39 billion yuan [2] - A total of 3,480 stocks had financing funds for purchase, with the top three being Xinyi Technology (25.36 billion yuan), Zhongji Xuchuang (24.32 billion yuan), and Shenghong Technology (17.14 billion yuan) [2][3] Fund Issuance - Eight new funds were issued yesterday, including: - Shangyin Stable and Wise Three-Month Holding (FOF) C - Xinyuan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index C - Xinyuan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index A - Shangyin Stable and Wise Three-Month Holding (FOF) A - CITIC Construction Investment Shuangyi Three-Month Holding Period Bond A - Zhaoshang Yutian Mixed Initiation C - CITIC Construction Investment Shuangyi Three-Month Holding Period Bond C - Zhaoshang Yutian Mixed Initiation A [4][5] Top Net Purchases on the Dragon and Tiger List - The top ten net purchases on the Dragon and Tiger list were led by: - Zhongwen Online with a net purchase of 715.97 million yuan - TCL Zhonghuan with 517.15 million yuan - Zhongchao Holdings with 406.27 million yuan - Hunan Silver with 354.37 million yuan - Jiecheng Shares with 230.40 million yuan [6][7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American CSP (Cloud Service Provider) capital expenditure, which is experiencing strong growth. The report emphasizes the importance of the CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) and fiber optic industries [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Acceleration of CPO Development** - Lumentum has announced that it has secured several hundred million dollars in orders related to CPO. - Expected revenue from CPO is projected to be approximately $50 million in Q4 2026, with a significant surge anticipated in the first half of 2027. - The report suggests paying attention to the CPO supply chain, including components such as optical engines, FAU, laser ELS, MPO, shuffle boxes, and polarization-maintaining fibers. - Relevant companies in this space include Tianfu Communication, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photonics, Taicheng Light, Changfei Fiber, Changying Tong, and Robotek [1][2]. 2. **Fiber Optic Industry Transition** - The fiber optic cable industry has shifted from recovery to a phase characterized by "tight supply and simultaneous increase in volume and price." - As a capital-intensive industry, it is expected that new capacity will be difficult to add in the short term, leading to continued price increases. - Companies with optical fiber rod production capacity, such as Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Fenghuo Communication, are recommended for focus. - Additionally, companies with significant fiber optic capacity or specialized fiber optics, such as Tefa Information and Changying Tong, are also highlighted [2]. 3. **Strong Capital Expenditure Growth Among CSPs** - Four major North American CSPs are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure growth through Q4 2025, with optimistic guidance for future capital expenditures. - All companies expressed a consensus on the "strong demand for AI and tight supply of computing power." - The overseas AI computing power supply chain is viewed positively, while the domestic AI competition is ongoing, with issues such as traffic congestion during Alibaba's Qianwen event noted. - Attention is also recommended for the domestic computing power supply chain [2]. Additional Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment consideration: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Yuanjie Technology [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese market experienced a strong start in the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, with major indices closing at daily highs [3] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, anticipating a "spring rally" before the market closure for the holiday [3] Market Performance - Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.41% [1] - SSE 50 Index increased by 1.45% [1] - CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.63% [1] - STAR 50 Index grew by 2.51% [1] - ChiNext Index surged by 2.98% [1] - CSI 500 Index climbed by 2.02% [1] - Total trading volume reached 2.27 trillion RMB, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [1] Sector Highlights - Growth stocks received strong buying support, influenced by the rebound of US tech stocks [3] - Notable performance in the technology hardware sector, with Tianfu Communication (300394.CH) surging by 17.76%, reaching a new historical high [3] - The media sector gained attention due to the popularity of ByteDance's new video generation model, Seedance 2.0, leading to multiple media stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The Goldman Sachs China AI-generated content index rose by 5.9% [3] - Semiconductor/GPU sector sentiment improved, with Cambrian (688256.SH) rebounding by 4.8% after a previous decline of 17% due to profit guidance rumors [3] - The "space solar energy" theme remained active following news related to Tesla's solar strategy [3] - Consumer stocks lagged behind as funds chased growth stocks; Kweichow Moutai saw a slight increase of 0.8% after reports of rising wholesale prices for its Feitian Moutai [3] Fund Flow Insights - Overall buying inclination was 1.1 times, indicating stronger buying interest [3] - Sectors with buying activity included encapsulated optics (CPO), tourism, and PCB [3] - Sectors with selling activity included storage and defense [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The optical communication concept stocks continued to perform strongly in the US stock market, with Credo Technology rising by 10.78%, Corning by 7.54%, Ciena Technology by 6.78%, and Lumentum by 4.56% [1][8] Group 2: Technological Developments - NVIDIA is advancing the scale deployment of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology to address the increasing power consumption and reliability challenges of AI supercomputers. CPO integrates optical engines into the same package as switching chips, significantly shortening electrical channel lengths and reducing signal conversion steps [2][9] - NVIDIA has developed CPO-supported switches for its Spectrum-X Ethernet platform and Quantum-X InfiniBand platform, collaborating with ecosystem partners to enhance packaging processes, fiber connection methods, and liquid cooling designs [2][9] Group 3: Industry Insights - China Galaxy indicates that the optical communication sector is currently undervalued, with demand continuing to grow. Capacity constraints are expected to be a major bottleneck for the development of optical communication until 2026. The market share of Chinese optical module manufacturers is leading globally and is expected to continue increasing [3][10] - The transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" is anticipated to be prominently reflected in the optical communication sector, with ample opportunities for upstream penetration during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][10] Group 4: Financing Activities - As of February 6, a total of 10 CPO concept stocks had net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan, with Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang having net financing purchases of 2.542 billion yuan and 2.21 billion yuan, respectively [4][11] - Tianfu Communication has disclosed that its 1.6T optical engine product has entered normal delivery stages and is actively coordinating supply chain resources to enhance capacity [4][11] Group 5: Company Performance - NewEase is benefiting from the continuous growth in computing power investments, with a significant increase in sales revenue and net profit compared to the same period last year. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 231.24% to 248.86% [6][13] - NewEase has established a technology system covering various interconnection forms, including traditional pluggable optical modules, LPO, NPO, and CPO. The company has the capability for mass production and delivery of optical modules at 800G and above, successfully producing and delivering the latest generation of 1.6T optical module products while actively advancing the development of next-generation products [7][13]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong performance with major indices opening higher; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.93%, reclaiming the 4100-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both increased by over 1% [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component up 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, with over 4400 stocks in the market showing gains and a trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Sector Highlights - The CPO sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Jiepute and Tianfu Communication hitting the daily limit, while the photovoltaic sector was also strong, with companies like GCL-Poly Energy achieving multiple consecutive gains [2] - The film and television sector was active, with stocks such as Jiecheng Co. and Shanghai Film reaching the daily limit, while the liquor sector faced a pullback, particularly Luzhou Laojiao [2] CPO and AI Developments - Tower Semiconductor announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop advanced silicon photonics technology for AI data centers, aiming to enhance AI infrastructure deployment [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to promote the construction of a national computing power interconnection node system, which aims to standardize and improve the efficiency of computing resources [4] Future Outlook - Analysts from Zhongyin Securities noted that the upcoming Spring Festival may lead to a "pre-festival excitement" in the A-share market, with a potential recovery in performance as the holiday approaches [5] - The market is expected to see a shift in investment focus post-Spring Festival, with small-cap stocks and growth sectors likely to outperform [7] - Galaxy Securities highlighted a historical trend of capital preference shifting towards high-dividend, consumer, and defensive sectors before the Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for market recovery [6]

2月9日，A股迎来普涨行情，双创指数涨近3%，4612只个股收红，光通信模块、影视概念等板块涨幅靠前。 受访人士表示，内外因素共振推动A股反弹，但市场量能未明显放大，叠加融资余额持续回落，反弹持续性存疑。预计节前最后一周市场大概率延续震荡 上行态势，本周可逢低加大仓位。 科技、资源股大涨 指数高开高走，沪指收涨1.41%报4123.09点，创业板指收涨2.98%报3332.77点，深证成指收涨2.17%。沪深300、上证50、北证50涨幅均超过1%，科创50 收涨2.51%。 市场放量1067亿元，三市日成交额增至2.27万亿元。杠杆资金热度持续回落，截至2月6日，沪深京两融余额降至2.66万亿元。 盘面上，CPO概念、影视概念、AI语料、Chiplet概念、光电子器件均大涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | . 涨幅% ↑ | 最新 | 总市值 | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 周涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 801890 | 机械设备(中) | 2.54 | 2353.57 | 62378 Z | 1719亿 | 9 43 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Telecom ETF Huatai (560300), which opened with a gain of 1.29% at 2.040 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF showed varied performance, with China Mobile up 0.06%, China Unicom up 0.41%, China Telecom up 0.35%, and China Satcom up 2.09% [1] - Notable gainers included Zhongji Xuchuang up 3.89%, Yinzhijie up 0.59%, Xinyi Sheng up 4.37%, ZTE up 1.35%, Tianfu Communication up 9.50%, and Zhongtian Technology up 4.75% [1] Group 2 - The performance benchmark for the Telecom ETF Huatai is the CSI Telecom Theme Index return [1] - The fund is managed by Huatai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with manager Wei Lizhu [1] - Since its establishment on December 5, 2023, the fund has achieved a return of 101.53%, while the return over the past month has been -5.46% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the communication and AI computing chain, including沃尔核材, 奥飞数据, 锐捷网络, 中国移动, 新易盛, 中际旭创, 万国数据, 天孚通信, and 亨通光电 [8][39]. Core Insights - The North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have shown a significant increase in capital expenditures, with a year-on-year growth of 66.64% in Q4 2025, totaling $117.6 billion. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with a projected capital expenditure of $570.77 billion, reflecting a 53.2% increase [2][12][13]. - Major CSPs such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google are optimistic about their capital spending for 2026, with Microsoft estimating $115.2 billion, Amazon $161.3 billion, Meta $123.7 billion, and Google $170.5 billion [2][12][13]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the global AI computing chain, including components like optical modules, liquid cooling, copper connections, and switches, driven by the increasing demand for computing power [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 6.95% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.27% and 2.11%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report identifies a primary investment theme in the communication industry for 2026, focusing on the AI computing chain, with recommended companies including 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and others [3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the four major North American cloud providers, collectively known as MAMG, which includes Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, with a total capital expenditure of $372.55 billion in 2025 [2][12]. Company Recommendations - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market position, including: - 沃尔核材 (Target Price: 43.21) [39] - 奥飞数据 (Target Price: 31.17) [39] - 锐捷网络 (Target Price: 102.51) [39] - 中国移动 (Target Price: 126.20) [39] - 新易盛 (Target Price: 476.71) [39] - 中际旭创 (Target Price: 626.68) [39] - 万国数据 (Target Price: 45.83) [39] - 天孚通信 (Target Price: 211.92) [39] - 亨通光电 (Target Price: 25.73) [39]