Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading agricultural companies, suggesting investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the industry index outperforming the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of December 8-12, 2025 [13]. - The report highlights significant growth in the pet food segment, with online sales increasing by 27.9% year-on-year during October and November 2025, driven by new consumer brands [34][36]. - The livestock industry is facing challenges, with a 5.5% decrease in the number of pigs marketed in November compared to the previous month, raising concerns about animal disease outbreaks [30]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the market [13]. - Key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology, Biological Shares, and Luoniushan saw significant gains of 19%, 17%, and 14% respectively [18]. Livestock Industry - In November, the number of pigs marketed decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [30]. - Prices for live pigs increased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of marketed pigs decreased by 0.2% [30]. - The utilization rate of fattening barns in 17 provinces dropped by 6.5 percentage points [30]. Poultry Industry - Prices for chicken chicks and broilers increased by 1.4% and 0.8% respectively, amid ongoing global avian influenza outbreaks [37][38]. - The price of chicken products rose by 0.6%, driven by supply constraints and increased export orders [37]. Pet Food Industry - Online sales of pet food reached 8.45 billion yuan, with significant growth from brands like Maifudi and Fresh Lang, which saw increases of 36% and 112.6% respectively [34]. - Chewy reported a 30.9% increase in EBITDA, with active customer numbers growing by 4.9% [35]. Feed Industry - Feed raw material prices showed mixed trends, with soybean meal prices increasing by 1.5% while corn prices slightly decreased [41]. - The price of South American white shrimp increased by 4.3% week-on-week [41]. Animal Health - The veterinary drug price index decreased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [43]. - Merck's imported pet antibiotics were launched on JD Health, marking a significant development in the pet healthcare sector [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to stabilize with grain prices bottoming out, particularly in the meat and dairy cycles [3] - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices and a supportive environment for long-term pig prices due to industry adjustments [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and cost advantages amid industry contraction [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product fundamentals, indicating a rise in pig prices to 11.34 CNY/kg, a 2.07% increase week-on-week [13] - The average price of broiler chickens increased to 7.24 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.26% week-on-week rise [14] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the swine industry is undergoing a restructuring, which is expected to support long-term profitability [13] - The average price of piglets is reported at 219.52 CNY/head, up 1.21% week-on-week [13] 2.2 Poultry - The supply of broiler chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [14] - The price of chicken eggs in major production areas is reported at 3.09 CNY/jin, a 3.00% increase week-on-week [14] 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.40 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.79% increase week-on-week [2][14] - The average market price for beef is reported at 61.06 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but up 21.51% year-on-year [2][14] 2.4 Dairy - The report suggests that the reduction of dairy cows in the fourth quarter may accelerate, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [2] 2.5 Feed - The report indicates that the industrialization of livestock farming is deepening, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitive advantages [3] 2.6 Other Commodities - The report discusses the supply-demand balance for corn, indicating a moderate price increase potential, with the current price at 2313 CNY/ton, a 0.13% increase week-on-week [2][14] - The report also notes that rubber prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a current price of 1825 USD/ton [2] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.30 CNY and 1.38 CNY [4] - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 CNY for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4]

联农共富，初心 不改！温氏股份 获第三届"猗顿 猪业杰出贡献 奖"_南方+_南方 plus 敢做养猪先锋， 不忘联农带农！ 12月13日，第五 十二届养猪产业 大会（广州）顺 利闭幕。在当天 举办的颁奖典礼 认可，更是 对"带农致富"初 心的坚定守护。 从"公司+农 户"到"公司+家 庭农场"再到创 新的"政银企村 户"共建模式， 温氏股份始终践 行联农带农的初 心，构建起风险 共担、利益共享 的紧密共同体。 2015年-2025年 前三季度累计支 付农户养殖费用 超961亿元，即 便行情低迷期， 仍保障农户收益 稳定，让4.3万 农户实现家门口 创业致富。 上，温氏食品集 团股份有限公司 （简称：温氏股 份）荣获第三届 恒通杯"猗顿猪 业杰出贡献 奖" 。 温氏股份总裁 黎少松（中）代表企业上台，接受广东省农业农村厅总畜牧兽医师陈楚楷（右）、四川恒通内江猪保种繁育有限公司董事长郭 亮（左）颁发的"猗顿猪业杰出贡献奖"。 "猗顿猪业杰出 贡献奖"既是对 行业贡献的权威 以科技为翼，温 氏股份与华为等 科技企业深度合 作，研发出"牧 视通""AI诊 疗"等产品，将 AI从探索走向应 用，让农户养殖 更高效；以服 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

本报记者 肖艳青 养殖场内，智能饲喂系统实现猪群的精准投喂，巡检机器人自主巡检，集控大屏闪烁着各项生产数据——曾经手持铲勺的 饲养员，如今正紧盯着屏幕，化身掌控全局的"数据监管员"。这不仅是生产场景的转换，更是我国养殖业在阵痛中开启深层变 革的直观呈现。 当前，养殖业正在经历洗牌，行业竞争逻辑也加速改变：从一味追求规模扩张，转向对质量效益与全球资源整合能力的比 拼。在此背景下，头部企业以智能化革新练内功、以全球化布局谋外拓，"内外兼修"加速锻造穿越周期、决胜未来的新引擎。 产能调控成共识 今年以来，我国生猪价格处于下跌趋势。中国养猪网数据显示，12月12日，生猪（外三元）价格为11.45元/千克，同比下 降27.85%，环比下降3.94%。生猪价格的持续下探，使得多家企业宣布中止或延期生猪养殖项目。 "这两年，我们公司接到的焊接猪栅栏的订单明显减少了。"某焊接设备制造企业负责人向《证券日报》记者表示，这类产 品主要用于新建规模化养猪场的配套建设，订单下滑反映出生猪养殖行业新增产能放缓的情况。 面对挑战，产能调控与行业自律成为推动行业走出困局的关键路径。 今年以来，农业农村部等有关部门多次召开生猪产能调控座谈会 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction on December 12 involved a block trade of 350,000 shares of Wens Foodstuff Group, with a transaction value of 4.669 million yuan, at a price of 13.34 yuan per share, representing a discount of 21.02% compared to the closing price of the day [2][3] - In the last three months, Wens Foodstuff Group has recorded a total of 10 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 59.8862 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Wens Foodstuff Group on the day of the report was 16.89 yuan, reflecting an increase of 1.26%, with a turnover rate of 0.52% and a total trading volume of 522 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Wens Foodstuff Group is 935 million yuan, which has increased by 43.6036 million yuan over the past five days, marking a growth of 4.89% [3] - One institutional rating has been issued in the past five days, with Dongfang Securities setting the highest target price for the company at 22.68 yuan as of December 11 [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group was established on July 26, 1993, with a registered capital of 6.653927141 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][51]. Core Insights - Recent recovery in pig prices is noted, with expectations for continued price increases as the seasonal consumption peak approaches. The inventory of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for capacity reduction [51]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in leading pig farming companies due to expected capacity reduction and improving profitability margins in chicken farming [51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strong R&D capabilities in animal health companies and the long-term growth potential of domestic pet food leaders [51]. Industry Performance Overview - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 0.92% from November 28 to December 11, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.73 percentage points [12]. - Among the sub-sectors, only animal health and planting recorded positive returns, increasing by 1.96% and 1.18%, respectively, while other sectors such as agricultural product processing, feed, breeding, and fishery experienced declines of 1.01%, 1.5%, 3.03%, and 3.76% [15][18]. - Approximately 68% of stocks in the industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with over 60% of stocks showing losses [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 11, 2025, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is approximately 2.75 times, reflecting a recent decline in valuation. This level is around 61.8% of the historical median since 2006, indicating a relatively low historical valuation [19]. Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs rose from 11.28 CNY/kg to 11.45 CNY/kg during the reporting period. However, self-breeding pig farming continues to incur losses, with profits at -163.34 CNY per head, while purchased pig farming shows a loss of -240.69 CNY per head [23][28]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks increased slightly to 3.54 CNY per chick, while the average price of white feather broilers rose to 7.33 CNY/kg, with losses of -0.71 CNY per bird [30][33]. Company Highlights - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shengnong Development (002299) due to their market leadership and potential for recovery [51][52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group achieved a record high in November 2025 with sales of 4.3535 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.71% and a month-on-month increase of 11.83% [1] - The current chicken price remains strong, with expectations of continued support leading up to the Spring Festival, despite a slowdown in industry output growth in Q3 2025 [1] - The report highlights ongoing losses in the pork industry, with prices stabilizing at low levels, and anticipates a market-driven reduction in production capacity due to weak price expectations and policy influences [1] Group 2 - The report projects that the theoretical output of the industry will remain high in December, making it difficult for both fat and piglet prices to improve, thus reinforcing the trend of market-driven capacity reduction [1] - The combination of weak current and expected pork prices, along with policy-driven factors, is expected to accelerate the reduction of production capacity in the hog farming industry, supporting a long-term increase in pork prices [1] - Based on comparable company valuation methods, the report assigns a target price of 22.68 yuan for the company in 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating with a valuation of 14x [1]