Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.4% to 51.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.0% to 91.1% [1][4] - The company's high-end cost-performance strategy has shown significant results, with the sub-brand Xiao Lu Lan Lan expected to achieve nearly 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024, validating the effectiveness of strategic adjustments [4] - The company plans to maintain its business model as a "manufacturing-based self-owned brand retailer," with expectations for offline distribution to contribute to growth in 2025 [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 7.293 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 10.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 13.055 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 47.6% and 24.3% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 129 million yuan in 2022 to 410 million yuan in 2024 and 573 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.6% and 39.6% respectively [3] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to increase from 0.32 yuan in 2022 to 1.02 yuan in 2024 and 1.43 yuan in 2025 [3][4]

证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2025-004 三、备查文件 三只松鼠股份有限公司 关于签订《投资意向协议》的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、《投资意向协议》相关事项概述 2024 年 10 月 28 日，三只松鼠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第三届董 事会第十七次会议审议通过《关于签订<投资意向协议>的议案》，公司全资子公司 安徽一件事创业投资有限公司拟以不超过人民币 2 亿元收购湖南爱零食科技有限公 司（以下简称"爱零食"）的控制权或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 0.6 亿 元收购未来已来（天津）科技发展有限责任公司（以下简称"爱折扣"）的控制权 或相关业务及资产；拟以不超过人民币 1 亿元收购安徽致养食品有限公司（以下简 称"致养食品"）的控制权或相关业务及资产。具体内容详见公司 2024 年 10 月 29 日登载于巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于签订<投资意向协 议>的公告》（公告编号：2024-055）。 二、进展情况 《投资意向协议》签订后，公司积极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.37% to 51.80%. The fourth quarter revenue is projected to be between 3.03 to 3.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [5][6]. - The company's high-end cost-performance strategy has shown significant results, with strong performance during the New Year sales period. The company has effectively implemented a "D+N" all-channel strategy, focusing on daily sales products and achieving a successful first round of distribution [6]. - The company has deepened its supply chain layout, enhancing product competitiveness and significantly improving net profit margins. The expected net profit margin for 2024 is approximately 3.7% to 4.1%, an increase of about 0.6 to 1 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 10.471 billion, 13.627 billion, and 16.704 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.18%, 30.14%, and 22.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 405 million, 545 million, and 752 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 84.35%, 34.61%, and 37.80% [7][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.01, 1.36, and 1.87 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33, 24, and 18 times [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its revenue target of 10 billion yuan in 2024 through multiple reforms in products, channels, supply chain, and organization. The online "D+N" strategy and offline distribution reforms are expected to continue in 2025, with additional revenue growth anticipated from the acquisition of Ai Zhe Kou and Ai Ling Shi, which will enter the hard discount sector [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 3.031 billion and 3.631 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 59 million and 79 million yuan, with a growth of 17.21% to 57.08% [6]. - For the full year 2024, the expected revenue is between 10.2 billion and 10.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit is forecasted to be between 400 million and 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s Q4 revenue is expected to exceed market expectations, with the lower limit of annual revenue already reaching the 10 billion yuan target. The anticipated revenue growth for Q4 is driven by Douyin and offline channels, with online revenue growth estimated at around 25% year-on-year, primarily fueled by Douyin [6][9]. - The company’s profitability is also expected to improve, with a projected net profit margin of 2.07% for Q4 2024, up from the previous year. The full-year net profit margin is expected to reach 3.90%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. Brand Performance - The company has effectively advanced its supply chain and all-channel reforms, with its multi-brand strategy showing initial success. The brand Xiao Lu Lan Lan has achieved a target of 1 billion yuan and is accelerating the development of new brands [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.407 billion, 13.891 billion, and 17.745 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.3%, 33.5%, and 27.7% [7][9]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 407 million, 580 million, and 860 million yuan, with growth rates of 85.2%, 42.6%, and 48.3% [7][9]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 35, 25, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 102-108 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43%-52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 4.0-4.2 billion yuan, with a growth of 82%-91% [5]. - The company is implementing a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, focusing on a comprehensive product and channel approach, and aims to return to a revenue level of 100 billion yuan by 2024 [5][6]. - Structural reforms are being advanced to enhance brand and channel competitiveness, including a full-category supply chain layout and multi-brand matrix development [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 102-108 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 4.0-4.2 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 3.0-3.3 billion yuan, indicating significant growth rates [5]. - For Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be between 30.31-36.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.59-0.79 billion yuan [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, maintaining a "full-category + full-channel" operational model, and reinforcing its identity as a "manufacturing self-owned brand retailer" [5]. - Key initiatives include global raw material direct procurement, expansion of offline distribution, and the establishment of a network-type organization with 248 small operational units [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1.02, 1.43, and 1.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 25, and 18 times [7]. - The company's long-term confidence in its "high-end cost-performance" strategy is expected to drive sustainable growth and achievement of performance targets [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.2 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.4% to 51.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 400 to 420 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.0% to 91.1% [1][3]. - The company has successfully returned to the 10 billion yuan revenue mark, driven by its "high-end cost-performance" strategy and strong offline distribution momentum [1][2]. - The offline distribution sales exceeded 1.8 billion yuan as of January 10, 2025, marking a nearly 50% year-on-year growth, with expectations for further increases as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue growth of 45.2%, reaching approximately 10.3 billion yuan, with net profit expected to grow by 89.3% to around 416 million yuan [3][5]. - The projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 10.3 billion yuan in 2024, 13.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.2 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 416 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 715 million yuan respectively [3][5]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its offline distribution channels while leveraging its strong online operational capabilities to drive growth [2][3]. - The strategy emphasizes "high-end cost-performance" to penetrate the offline market effectively, with expectations for significant growth in the post-holiday season [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 34.4 for 2024, decreasing to 20.0 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][10]. - The projected EPS for 2024 is 1.04 yuan per share, increasing to 1.78 yuan by 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 102-108 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 400 to 420 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.99% to 91.09% [8] - The company's performance is driven by several factors, including a comprehensive supply chain layout, a focus on short video and multi-channel strategies, a successful multi-brand matrix, and an efficient network organization [8] - The company is anticipated to continue its upward momentum into 2025, with significant sales growth in offline distribution channels and stable online performance [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to be 10,749 million RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 51.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 406.84 million RMB, marking an 85.10% increase [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.01 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.17 [1][9] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow to 13,297 million RMB in 2025 and 17,734 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 550.46 million RMB and 845.61 million RMB respectively [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company successfully achieved its revenue target of 10 billion yuan in 2024 through multiple reforms in products, channels, supply chain, and organization. The online "D+N" strategy and offline distribution reforms are expected to continue in 2025, with additional revenue growth anticipated from the acquisition of Ai Zhe Kou and Ai Ling Shi, which will enter the hard discount sector [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 3.031 billion and 3.631 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.68% to 43.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 59 million and 79 million yuan, with a growth of 17.21% to 57.08% [6][9]. - For the full year 2024, the expected revenue is between 10.2 billion and 10.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 43.37% to 51.80%. The net profit is forecasted to be between 400 million and 420 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 81.99% to 91.09% [6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 10.407 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 407 million yuan, showing an increase of 85.2% [7][9]. - The report indicates that the company’s Q4 2024 net profit margin is expected to be 2.07%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the full-year net profit margin is projected to be 3.90%, up by 0.82 percentage points [6][9]. Market Performance - The company’s stock closed at 35.68 yuan, with a market capitalization of 143 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 100 billion yuan [3][6]. - The stock has shown significant performance, with a 12-month high of 42.88 yuan and a low of 14.54 yuan [3]. Brand Development - The company has effectively advanced its supply chain and multi-brand strategy, with the brand "Xiao Lu Lan Lan" achieving a target of 1 billion yuan and accelerating the development of new brands such as "Chao Da Wan" and "Dong Fang Yan Jiu Sheng" [6][9].

证券时报•数据宝统计显示，今日公布2024年业绩预告公司中，截至发稿股价较为强势的有欧陆通、润 邦股份、道道全等，股价分别上涨12.03%、10.02%、9.96%，股价跌幅较大的有三晖电气、德联集团 等，分别下跌8.11%、6.00%。 证券时报网讯，三只松鼠股价出现异动，截至今日11时19分，股价下跌5.04%，成交1156.03万股，成交 金额4.00亿元，换手率为4.13%，公司发布的最新业绩预告显示，预计2024年实现净利润4.00亿元—4.20 亿元，净利润同比增长81.99%—91.09%。 ...

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