证券代码：300783 证券简称：三只松鼠 公告编号：2024-059 | | 是否为控股 | 本次质 | 占其 | 占公司当 | 是否 | 是否 | 质押 | 质押 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 | 股东或第一 | 押股份 | 所持 | 前总股份 | 为限 | 为补 | 起始 | 到期 | 质权人 | 质押 | | 名称 | 大股东及其 一致行动人 | 数量 （股） | 股份 比例 | 比例 | 售股 | 充质 押 | 日 | 日 | | 用途 | | 章燎源 | | 12,000 | 7.41 | | | | 2024- | 2025- | 中信证 券股份 | 置换前 | | | 是 | ,000 | % | 2.99% | 否 | 否 | 11-20 | 11-20 | 有限公 | 期融资 | | | | | | | | | | | 司 | | 注 1：上表中"占公司当前总股份比例"为占当前剔除公司最新的回购专用账户 270,700 股后的总股本 400,729,300 股的比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Three Squirrels (300783 SZ) [4] Core Views - Three Squirrels is undergoing a significant transformation in its retail strategy, focusing on high-end cost performance and integrated development of manufacturing, branding, and retailing [2] - The company is actively participating in the retail industry's transformation, leveraging its supply chain and brand strength to expand its offline distribution channels [2] - Three Squirrels has achieved a 285% YoY increase in distribution revenue in October, with 70% of distributors growing over 60% [2] - The company aims to increase distribution revenue by 800 million yuan during the upcoming Spring Festival season, focusing on popular products like melon seeds and gift sets [2] - Three Squirrels is building a robust supply chain, including the world's largest nut processing cluster and multiple domestic and international production bases [2] - The company is expanding its product matrix, launching 30 new products in the past two months, and plans to further enrich its offerings [2] - Three Squirrels is collaborating with distributors, allocating 100 million yuan in channel expenses to support market expansion [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 45 2% in 2024, reaching 10 33 billion yuan, followed by 30 0% growth in 2025 and 20 6% in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 89 3% in 2024, reaching 420 million yuan, with further growth of 36 6% in 2025 and 25 4% in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 04 yuan in 2024 to 1 42 yuan in 2025 and 1 78 yuan in 2026 [2] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, from 15 1% in 2024 to 20 7% in 2026 [2] Industry Trends - The retail industry is undergoing a profound transformation, with a shift towards discount retailing and community-based stores [2] - Three Squirrels is positioning itself to capitalize on this trend by expanding into discount supermarkets and community snack stores [2] - The company's acquisition of Ai Snacks and Ai Discount is expected to enhance its market presence and supply chain capabilities [2] - The report highlights the potential for discount retailing in China, driven by increasing chain store penetration and rational consumer behavior [2] Operational Highlights - Three Squirrels has built a strong supply chain, including seven factories and 17 production lines, expected to be operational by the end of the year [2] - The company has established a global nut processing cluster and is expanding its production capabilities for other snack categories [2] - Three Squirrels is leveraging its brand strength and supply chain capabilities to replicate its success in offline distribution [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive growth in offline distribution, with a year-on-year increase of 51% in Q3 2024 and a remarkable 285% growth in October 2024. This growth is supported by various policies aimed at empowering distributors [2]. - The company is actively preparing for the upcoming peak season, with significant upgrades across product categories and packaging, alongside strong market support and channel policies [3]. - The long-term goal includes expanding offline channels and achieving a distribution target of 10 billion [3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2024 is 10,209.42 million, reflecting a growth rate of 43.50%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 17,311.62 million [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 401.28 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 82.58%, and is expected to reach 752.29 million by 2026 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.00 in 2024, increasing to 1.88 by 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 25, and 19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and maintaining a competitive edge through cost leadership and high-end value propositions [2]. - The offline business strategy includes a focus on differentiated products and customized displays to stabilize pricing and enhance sales performance [2]. - The company is also exploring investment and acquisition opportunities to leverage existing resources and capabilities in new areas [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about the upcoming Chinese New Year sales and has initiated a multi-brand acquisition strategy to enter various sectors including discount supermarkets and dairy beverages [2][3]. - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a 56.46% increase in total revenue and a 101.15% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - The company is focusing on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, enhancing its distribution channels and supply chain efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 716.9 million yuan, with a net profit of 34.1 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 56.46% and 101.15% respectively [3]. - The company expects revenues to reach 10.471 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 47.18% [5][7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 405.19 million yuan, representing an 84.35% increase compared to the previous year [5][7]. Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its supply chain by establishing direct procurement partnerships with top global farms, which helps in controlling costs and ensuring quality [3]. - The company plans to expand its product offerings, including the acquisition of the Anhui Zhiyang brand to enter the dairy beverage market [3][4]. - The company is also focusing on improving its offline distribution channels and has seen a noticeable increase in performance in the second half of the year [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company held an offline distributor conference, focusing on feedback from the offline distribution business, preparations for the New Year festival, and the performance of business partners [2] - The offline distribution data showed strong results, with sales growth of 7% in Q2, 51% in Q3, and 285% in October year-on-year, continuing to implement a cost-performance strategy [2] - The company is confident in its preparations for the New Year festival, setting ambitious sales targets and showcasing significant products and promotional strategies [2] - Business partners shared positive business overviews, highlighting the strengths of various subsidiaries and their alignment with the company's cost-performance strategy [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 101.1 billion, 133.0 billion, and 176.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 32%, and 32% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.1 billion, 5.5 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 86%, 34%, and 53% [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios are forecasted to be 32, 24, and 15 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]

证券时报e公司讯，11月10日，三只松鼠(300783)董事长章燎原在公司111线下品销大会上表示，收购爱 零食、爱折扣不仅仅是为了实现销售增量，更本质的目的是通过洞察门店端的数据，再把数据应用到组 织当中，进行全品类的拓展。 他认为，并购的底层逻辑是赋予一套管理的知识，帮助企业更好成长，三只松鼠所有的商业运作最终都 会落到对制造、品牌、零售三个环节的重构，做出更有竞争力的商品。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the retail transformation is not price, but the demand for product categories, with the rise of bulk snacks driven by the inability of past retail terminals to accommodate category changes [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The retail industry is undergoing a profound transformation, with 2025 expected to mark the true beginning of the transition from bulk snacks to bulk snacks plus, as well as full-category discount supermarkets [1] - The main battleground for this transformation is in community settings, indicating a shift towards localized retail strategies [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company, Three Squirrels, plans to actively embrace emerging channels in response to the evolving retail landscape [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned to a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, leading to a recovery in revenue and significant profit growth [1][17]. - The company has restructured its supply chain and operational model to enhance efficiency and adapt to market demands, resulting in improved profitability [1][19]. - The online sales channel, particularly through Douyin, has shown explosive growth, while the company is also expanding its offline distribution network [1][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2012, the company quickly became a leading online snack brand, achieving over 10 billion in revenue by 2019. However, it faced revenue decline starting in 2020 due to market changes and the pandemic [1][14]. - The company has shifted its focus to a "high-end cost-performance" strategy since late 2022, which has begun to yield positive results in 2023 [1][13]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "one product, one chain" model to optimize its supply chain, focusing on direct sourcing and self-manufacturing to reduce costs [1][19]. - Internal organization has been restructured to align with market demands, enhancing product development and channel operations [1][19]. Channel Strategy - The company utilizes a "D+N" strategy, leveraging Douyin for effective marketing and sales, which has resulted in a 180.7% year-on-year revenue increase from this channel [1][18]. - The offline distribution strategy has been revamped, with a focus on expanding the national distribution network and enhancing daily sales performance [1][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 10.3 billion, 13.4 billion, and 16.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 45.2%, 30.0%, and 20.6% [2][17]. - Net profit is expected to increase substantially, with forecasts of 416 million, 568 million, and 713 million for the same years, indicating growth rates of 89.3%, 36.6%, and 25.4% [2][17].

证券时报e公司讯，企查查APP显示，近日，安徽一群人企业管理咨询有限公司成立，法定代表人为卫 莹莹，注册资本为500万元，经营范围包含：企业管理咨询；财务咨询；融资咨询服务；市场营销策 划；品牌管理；软件开发；创业投资；食用农产品零售；食品销售；证券投资咨询等。 企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由三只松鼠间接全资持股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum, driven by both organic and external factors [1] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 7.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 341 million yuan, up 101% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively expanding its product categories and enhancing production capacity through strategic investments and partnerships [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.095 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, reflecting a 222% year-on-year growth [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 remained stable at 24.46%, indicating improved supply chain efficiency [1] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.99, 1.36, and 1.81 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 20, and 15 times [1][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest up to 360 million yuan in collaboration with snack brands to expand its offline market presence and enter new beverage segments [1] - It aims to enhance its production capabilities by investing up to 200 million yuan in the construction of a snack industrial park and supply chain bases [1] - The company is also focusing on nurturing new sub-brands through additional investments to leverage existing advantages in new markets [1]