日本市场正在经历一场重要的转折，市场定价逻辑出现根本性转变。日本自由民主党在众议院选举中取 得压倒性胜利后，日元收益率曲线趋于平坦化，通胀预期稳定，日元汇率走强——呈现出发达市场面对 更高实际利率预期时的典型反应。 2月14日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中指出，市场开始定价日本退出超低实际利率体制的可 能性，而不再仅仅将其视为通胀冲击。这一变化的核心驱动因素在于投资者将资产回流预期和退出超低 实际利率体制纳入更高的概率权重。 但这一转变能否持续存在重大不确定性。高盛警告，如果日本央行未能兑现市场预期的更鹰派路径，此 前的市场动态可能会重新回归，导致日元再度走弱、长端利率波动性上升。 研报特别指出，关键风险集中在日本央行的政策路径上。如果日本央行在加快加息步伐方面表现出任何 鸽派迹象——特别是考虑到日元近期的强势——很可能会催化选举前交易动态的回归。 研报表示，部分投资者将财务大臣最近的言论解读为支持外国资产回流的信号。 鉴于日本强劲的净国际投资头寸，利用海外资产为新的财政扩张提供资金，或私人部门投资 组合流动和外汇对冲的转变，都可能稳定日元并提振其他国内资产价格。 值得注意的是，最近的市场走势已大幅缩小 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has launched a new "anti-AI impact" thematic investment portfolio, betting on companies less likely to be affected by AI disruptions [1] - The portfolio includes a long position in companies that require physical execution, are heavily regulated, or must be accountable by humans, which are difficult to replace with AI [1] - On the short side, the strategy targets companies with workflows that could be gradually automated by AI, such as Duolingo and Semrush [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about AI infrastructure-related companies, covering areas like computing power, cloud services, data facilities, development tools, and cybersecurity, with Oracle and Microsoft as representative firms [1]

01 高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky认为，市场陷入"先卖出、后提问"恐慌，本质是对企业护城河的全面检验，建议关注拥有真 正护城河的公司、实物资产和工业股，看好航空航天板块，但需警惕银行股风险。高盛预计CTA将抛售15-20亿美元美 股，标普若跌破中期阈值6723点，将加速抛售幅度。 硬·AI 作者 | 鲍亦龙 编辑 | 硬 AI 高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky警告称，一场由人工智能驱动的"创造性破坏"正实时席卷全球各行业，本质上 这是一次对企业护城河的全面检验。 从上周软件行业遭遇冲击，到本周初先是保险和财富管理类股，下半周则轮到房地产服务类和物流板块。 AI最初被视为对股市的利好因素，但现在正在激进地检验哪些企业真正具有可防御的竞争优势。 "先卖出、后提问"的情绪在市场扩散，抛售速度加快，但除了AI担忧外并无明确催化剂。高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky认为这是一次护城河检查： 企业的业务是否能抵御技术冲击？如果有一支机器人大军，能否颠覆现有企业？企业是否必须竞相 投入或收购，否则就会被取代？ Privorotsky进一步强调，需警惕美国各大股指中的CTA（商品交易顾问）触发 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 669.42 points (1.34%) to close at 49,451.98 points, the Nasdaq Composite falling 469.32 points (2.03%) to 22,597.15 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 108.71 points (1.57%) to 6,832.76 points [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Over 4,100 stocks declined, indicating widespread market panic as investors rushed to sell assets, particularly in the tech and growth sectors. The VIX index surged, reflecting heightened risk aversion [2][3] Sector Performance - The sell-off affected nearly all sectors, with notable declines in precious metals and semiconductor stocks. The precious metals sector saw significant drops, with gold futures down 3.08% and silver futures plummeting 10.62% [4][5][6][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.5%, with individual stocks like AEHR Test Systems down 17.58% and Intel down over 3% [8][10] Major Companies - Apple Inc. experienced a substantial drop of 5.00%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $120 billion, attributed partly to regulatory concerns [12] - Other major tech companies also faced declines, with Tesla down 1.62%, Amazon down 2.20%, and Meta Platforms down nearly 3% [12] Financial Sector - Bank stocks fell across the board, with JPMorgan Chase down over 2%, Goldman Sachs down over 4%, and Citigroup down over 5%, driven by concerns over AI disrupting traditional wealth management [13][14] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including a drop in initial jobless claims and lower-than-expected existing home sales, contributed to market anxiety about potential economic overheating and prolonged high interest rates [24][25][26] Global Market Impact - The sell-off in the US markets had a ripple effect on global markets, with European indices also closing lower after initially opening higher, indicating a widespread sentiment of fear [18][19][20] AI Concerns - The market's decline was exacerbated by fears regarding the disruptive impact of AI technologies on various industries, leading to significant stock price drops in sectors perceived to be at risk [21][22][30] Storage Chip Sector - In contrast to the overall market trend, storage chip stocks saw gains, with companies like SanDisk and Seagate Technology rising significantly, reflecting a belief that AI's growth will increase demand for data storage [29]

高盛推出一项新的软件股多空组合，做多那些业务难以被人工智能取代、或直接受益于AI需求增长的公司，同时做空可能被自动化或被企业内部替代的 软件企业。此前随着Anthropic等公司推出面向法务和税务的AI工具，引发相关软件股大幅下跌，市场对生成式AI冲击商业模式的担忧正在加剧。 随后，这轮抛售继续扩大。一家知名度不高的初创公司Altruist推出了一款税务策略工具，在过去一周内导致Charles Schwab、LPL Financial等公司股 价下跌超过10%。 媒体称，华尔街对软件股的怀疑情绪已经积累了数月，但最近的市场态度已从谨慎转向明显防御。随着市场担心生成式AI可能侵蚀传统商业模式并压缩利 润率，投资者纷纷抛售整个行业的股票。 这轮抛售也重置了估值水平。一年前，软件股的市盈率大约为51倍，是股票市场中估值最高的行业。而如今，该行业的市盈率约为27倍。 在做多一侧，高盛看好那些将直接受益于AI采用率上升的企业，包括算力提供商、数据基础设施公司、可观测性工具、安全网络公司、超大规模云服务商 以及AI开发平台等。该组合纳入的公司包括Cloudflare、CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Netwo ...

高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky警告称，一场由人工智能驱动的"创造性破坏"正实时席卷全球各行业，本质上这是一次对企业护城河的全面检验。 从上周软件行业遭遇冲击，到本周初先是保险和财富管理类股，下半周则轮到房地产服务类和物流板块。AI最初被视为对股市的利好因素，但现 在正在激进地检验哪些企业真正具有可防御的竞争优势。 "先卖出、后提问"的情绪在市场扩散，抛售速度加快，但除了AI担忧外并无明确催化剂。高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky认为这是一次护城河检查： 企业的业务是否能抵御技术冲击？如果有一支机器人大军，能否颠覆现有企业？企业是否必须竞相投入或收购，否则就会被取代？ Privorotsky进一步强调，需警惕美国各大股指中的CTA（商品交易顾问）触发信号。高盛目前估计，CTA将在未来一周内抛售价值15亿至20亿美 元的美国股票。 软件板块估值承压 Rich Privorotsky认为，AI不仅没让大家躺赢，反而正在让那些想在经济里"躺平吃利息"的人无处遁形。 在许多曾被认为存在护城河的领域，技术进步正迅速瓦解那些建立在经验和知识工作之上的堡垒，新进入者对现有企业构成快速挑战。 而一旦AI担忧 ...

Goldman Sachs just sent a sobering warning to the Federal Reserve. After analyzing a "noisy" January CPI report, the firm’s economists, led by Jan Hatzius, officially reset their forecast for the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. The new target? A 3.05% year-over-year jump in core PCE. This isn't just a routine revision—it’s a brutal reality check for investors betting on a pivot. If Goldman is right, the "last mile" of the inflation fight is getting longer, and the window for interest rate cuts in the fir ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasizes that young talent will remain a "huge core part" of the bank, despite the rise of AI in the financial services industry [1][1][1] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 22 to 27 is currently 5.6%, significantly higher than the general unemployment rate of about 3.1% for college graduates as of December [1][1][1] - Economists attribute the struggles of young graduates to workforce reductions by companies that previously hired them, rather than AI being the primary cause [1][1][1] Company Perspective - Solomon acknowledges that while AI may change the nature of work and reduce the number of workers needed, it will not eliminate the need for talented individuals in professional services [1][1][1] - The company is adapting to AI advancements similarly to how it adapted to previous technological changes, indicating a belief in the continued necessity of human workers [1][1][1] Industry Context - The financial services industry is experiencing a shift as businesses explore AI's potential to streamline operations, but the demand for motivated professionals remains [1][1][1] - Solomon reflects on the evolution of the industry, suggesting that technological advancements have historically not diminished the need for human involvement [1][1][1]

Market - US stock market closed mixed on February 14, with all three major indices recording weekly declines. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 fell by 1.23%, 2.1%, and 1.39% respectively, as investors weighed the impact of artificial intelligence across various industries and noted that the core CPI for January hit a nearly five-year low [2][4]. - In the top 20 stocks by trading volume, Applied Materials surged by 8.08% after providing a strong revenue forecast, while Nvidia dropped by 2.23% due to procurement issues from Samsung and SK Hynix [3][46]. - Popular Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba down by 2.05% and Tencent Music up by 4.52%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.1% [4][47]. Company - SpaceX is considering a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO to maintain Elon Musk's control, similar to a previous strategy used for Tesla. The company, which recently acquired AI startup xAI, is expected to have a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion [19][43]. - OpenAI has been selected to participate in a US military challenge to develop voice-controlled drone swarm software, collaborating with two defense tech firms. This initiative is part of a $100 million challenge announced by the Department of Defense [20][43]. - Goldman Sachs launched a new stock basket aimed at companies that are less likely to be replaced by AI, betting on firms that require physical execution or are protected by regulatory barriers [22][43]. - Castle Investment's three flagship funds saw a 22% decline in net profits, attributed to high employee compensation costs amid a competitive talent market, despite a 4% increase in operational costs [23][43]. - The US has eased energy sanctions on Venezuela, allowing companies like Chevron and BP to operate in the oil and gas sector, which could lead to new investments [24][43]. - Meta plans to add facial recognition technology to its smart glasses, allowing users to identify people through an AI assistant, despite previous concerns over privacy and ethical implications [27][43].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) shares have increased by 37.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 19.1% and peers JPMorgan (9.6%) and Morgan Stanley (21.3%) [1][8] Growth Catalysts - The investment banking (IB) business is experiencing a resurgence, with global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rising 41% year-over-year to $4.81 trillion in 2025, driven by easing regulations and inflation pressures [6][7][9] - Goldman Sachs has advised on over $1.6 trillion in announced M&A volumes in 2025, leading to a 21% year-over-year growth in IB revenues [9][10] - Management anticipates a stronger M&A environment in 2026, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and high client engagement [10] Strategic Streamlining - The company is strategically exiting underperforming consumer banking ventures to focus on higher-margin businesses [11][14] - Recent divestitures include the transition of the Apple Card program to JPMorgan and the sale of its Polish asset management firm [12][13] - The Global Banking and Markets segment's net revenues rose 18% year-over-year in 2025, reflecting the benefits of restructuring [14] Private Equity and Alternatives - Goldman is expanding its private equity and alternatives business, targeting a $300 billion private credit portfolio by 2029 [15][19] - The acquisition of Industry Ventures and partnerships with T. Rowe Price are part of this strategy to enhance access to high-growth technology companies [16][17] AI Transformation - The firm is implementing a comprehensive AI transformation across various divisions to enhance fee income and operational efficiency [20][21] - The "One Goldman Sachs 3.0" initiative aims to embed AI into core operations, improving productivity and scalability [21][23] - AI is expected to drive long-term growth, shifting revenue towards higher-fee, data-driven businesses [24][33] Financial Strength and Capital Distribution - Goldman maintains a strong balance sheet with a Tier 1 capital ratio well above regulatory requirements, allowing for aggressive capital returns through buybacks and dividends [24][26] - The company increased its quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $4.50 per share and has a robust share repurchase program in place [26][27] Earnings Prospects and Valuation - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for 2026 and 2027, projecting growth of 10.3% and 10.6% respectively [28] - GS stock is trading at a forward price/book ratio of 2.17, below the industry average of 2.44, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [30] Conclusion - Goldman Sachs is well-positioned for future growth with a streamlined business model, strong fundamentals, and a focus on private credit and AI [33][34] - The company offers strong earnings visibility and capital returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity [35]