高盛首席执行官：交易环境持续向好 来源：滚动播报 ...

高盛CEO：我预计今年内会有短期波动的发生。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：滚动播报 高盛首席执行官：贸易、通胀和地缘政治方面存在不确定性。 ...

Acquisition Facility expected to accelerate asset acquisition strategy Fort Worth, TX, Feb. 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Presidio Investment Holdings LLC (“Presidio” or the “Company”), a differentiated oil and gas operator focused on the acquisition and optimization of mature, producing oil and natural gas assets in the United States, and EQV Ventures Acquisition Corp. (NYSE: FTW) ("FTW"), a special purpose acquisition company sponsored by EQV Group, today announced that Presidio has mandated an affiliate ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that the Fed's balance sheet needs to be reduced, but this should not prevent large-scale asset purchases during economic crises [1][6] - Milan emphasized that reducing the balance sheet will decrease the Fed's presence in financial markets and provide policymakers with options for future crises [1][6] - He mentioned that while he supports a gradual reduction of the balance sheet, it cannot be implemented immediately due to regulatory hurdles [1][6] Group 2: Currency Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Japan's more expansionary fiscal stance is likely to weaken the yen rather than support it, as increased government spending amplifies Japan's structural yield disadvantage [2][7] - The firm anticipates that the implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate will rise again as investors refocus on the interplay between fiscal policy, yield differentials, and political risks [2][7] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the USD/JPY could move towards and potentially break the 160 level, with the risk of official intervention becoming a key consideration if the exchange rate remains in that range [2][8] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a three-day high, with current trading around 5040, driven by renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions [3][9] - The ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks also provides support for gold prices [3][9] - Market participants are advised to monitor resistance around 5100 and support near 4950 [3][9] Group 4: USD/JPY and USD/CAD Trends - The USD/JPY pair experienced a pullback after reaching a high, falling below the 156.00 mark and trading around 155.30, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index due to Fed rate cut expectations [4][10] - The USD/CAD pair declined, dropping below the 1.3600 level and trading around 1.3560, primarily due to the dollar index falling below 97.00 amid Fed rate cut expectations and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [5][11]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs was the leading financial adviser by deal value for construction sector M&A in 2025, advising on deals worth $43.3 billion [1] - Bank of America ranked second with $41.9 billion in construction M&A deals [1] - JPMorgan ranked third by value with $35.5 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley at $28.3 billion and Mizuho Financial Group at $24.4 billion [2] Group 2 - JPMorgan led by volume with 19 transactions, while Bank of America followed with 16 deals, and Goldman Sachs advised on 15 deals [2] - Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs saw close to a three-fold increase in deal volume and value in 2025 compared to the previous year, improving their rankings significantly [3] - Goldman Sachs moved from sixth to first by value, while JPMorgan jumped from 22nd to first by volume [3] Group 3 - GlobalData's league tables are based on real-time tracking of various reliable sources, with a dedicated team of analysts monitoring these sources for in-depth deal details [4] - The company also seeks submissions of deals from leading advisers to enhance data robustness [5]

Group 1 - Hedge funds recorded a historic increase in short positions on U.S. stocks last week, with the information technology sector being the most affected by sell-offs [1] - Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage team reported that the nominal short selling of individual stocks reached the highest level since records began in 2016, with short selling volume being twice that of long buying during the period from January 30 to February 5 [1] - Hedge funds have net sold U.S. stocks for the fourth consecutive week, with the selling intensity reaching the highest level since early April, particularly impacting the information technology sector, which saw the second-largest outflow in the past five years [1] Group 2 - Software stocks dominated the net sell-off, accounting for approximately 75% of the net selling in the information technology sector, with total net holdings in software stocks dropping to 2.6% and the long-short ratio falling to 1.3, both hitting record lows [1] - The semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sectors, along with IT services, were among the few technology-related areas that experienced net buying during the week, with semiconductor stocks rising and further widening the gap between chip stocks and software stocks [1] - Outside the technology sector, hedge funds continued to shift towards defensive sectors, with healthcare becoming the most net bought sector last week, surpassing industrials as the leading area for hedge fund inflows this year [1]

智通财经APP注意到，美元普遍走软，但高盛指出日本大选后的财政前景令美日汇率上行风险持续。周 一全球交易时段美元小幅走弱，但分析师认为，日本大选结果最终可能会强化美元兑日元的上行压力， 因为市场对日本政府增加财政支出的预期正在升温。 然而，分析师警告称，干预的威胁不太可能完全止住日元的疲软。相反，它通常会导致短期内仓位更加 谨慎、风险偏好下降，从而减缓势头而非扭转趋势。历史经验表明，如果底层宏观力量继续利好日元走 软，这种谨慎情绪只能维持有限的时间。 高盛指出，随着大选后日本的财政轨迹成为关注焦点，且美债收益率较日本国内资产仍有显著溢价，风 险天平依然向日元进一步贬值倾斜。因此，预计波动率将会上升，市场可能会在保持对官方反击警惕的 同时，继续测试更高水平。 高盛预计，随着投资者重新关注财政政策、收益率差及政治风险之间的相互作用，美元兑日元的隐含波 动率在近期平静后将再次回升。策略师指出，市场正再次接近令货币稳定成为政策关注焦点的水平。 在这种背景下，高盛认为美元兑日元有空间移向、并可能突破 160 关口。一旦汇率持续进入该区间，官 方干预的风险将重新回到交易考量的核心位置。 根据高盛分析师的观点，日本更具扩张 ...

Summary of Vietnam's Economic Development Plan (2026-2030) Industry Overview - The report focuses on Vietnam's economic development plan for the period 2026-2030, aiming for an average real GDP growth of 10% or more, as endorsed by the 14th National Party Congress [2][3][4]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Growth Target**: The government targets an average real GDP growth of 10% or more, a significant increase from the previous target of 6.5%-7.0% [4][5]. 2. **Investment Focus**: Development investment spending is projected to rise by 42% year-on-year in 2026, indicating a strong fiscal tilt towards capital formation [2][28]. 3. **Labor Productivity**: The plan aims for labor productivity growth of approximately 8.5% per year, up from 6.7% in the previous five years, emphasizing human-capital upgrading [10][11]. 4. **Infrastructure Investment**: Vietnam prioritizes scaling up infrastructure investment in transportation, energy, logistics, and digital infrastructure to support higher growth [2][28]. 5. **FDI Attraction**: The government is focused on attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into higher value-added sectors, with FDI inflows averaging around 4% of GDP annually [24][26]. 6. **Macroeconomic Stability**: The plan emphasizes maintaining macroeconomic stability, with a target inflation rate of around 4.5% for 2026 and a public debt limit of 60% of GDP [13][34]. 7. **Demographic Challenges**: Vietnam faces demographic constraints, including a slowing working-age population growth rate, which is projected to remain moderate at around 0.7% over the next five years [10][35]. 8. **Lessons from China**: The report draws parallels with China's early 2000s growth, noting that while Vietnam has a similar urbanization stage, it faces weaker demographic momentum and less supportive global trade conditions [35][36]. Additional Important Content 1. **Investment Composition**: The report highlights that over half of Vietnam's GDP growth in the past decade has come from investment, which is expected to rise to 35%-36% of GDP [11]. 2. **Public Investment**: The state's share of total investment has increased from 24% in 2019 to 27% in 2024, driven by weak private sector investment [34]. 3. **Urbanization Potential**: Vietnam's urbanization rate is around 40%, significantly below the EM Asia average of approximately 60%, indicating substantial potential for urban development [28]. 4. **Property Sector Risks**: The report warns of potential systemic risks in the property sector, similar to China's experience, due to liquidity stress and refinancing pressures for developers [50][51]. 5. **Domestic Value Addition**: Vietnam aims to increase domestic value-added share in exports, with recent surveys indicating a rise in local procurement by foreign firms operating in Vietnam [19][24]. This comprehensive overview captures the key elements of Vietnam's economic development plan, highlighting both the ambitious growth targets and the challenges that lie ahead.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on multi-asset investment strategies and their performance in 2025, with insights into market conditions and investor sentiment heading into 2026 [3][4][21]. Performance Insights - A global multi-asset portfolio delivered a return close to 20% in USD for 2025, marking the 90th percentile of performance since 1950 [4][5]. - US multi-asset funds had an average performance of 17.2%, while European funds lagged at 5.2%, indicating a significant disparity in returns [14][15]. - The 3-year rolling annualized return for the world portfolio proxy was 14% at the end of 2025, following two strong years of recovery from previous drawdowns [4][14]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment at the start of 2026 is bullish, with 90% of European respondents expecting positive global equity returns, the highest recorded [21][24]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has shifted above 1 for the first time since 2021, indicating increased risk-taking among investors [21][30]. Valuation Concerns - Elevated equity valuations may limit returns in the medium term, but favorable macro conditions could mitigate this constraint in the near term [33][40]. - US equity valuations are high, but the S&P 500 still delivered above-average returns in 2025, primarily driven by earnings growth [33][40]. Drawdown Risks - Current macro conditions are favorable, reducing the risk of a significant equity drawdown, although elevated valuations and bullish sentiment could lead to smaller corrections [51][53]. - The probability of a bear market (>20% S&P 500 drawdown) has recently declined, but geopolitical shocks and AI disruption concerns remain potential triggers for corrections [53][54]. Geopolitical Risks - Robust portfolio construction is essential to protect against geopolitical shocks, which can lead to increased volatility [61][62]. - Historical data suggests that equities often recover strongly after geopolitical uncertainties ease [63][64]. Bond Market Dynamics - Bonds may provide a smaller buffer during equity drawdowns compared to historical norms, with equity/bond correlations expected to be more negative in 2026 [69][71]. - The current environment of higher inflation volatility and fiscal policy concerns may lead to lower Sharpe ratios for bonds [74]. US Asset Dominance - US assets continue to dominate global benchmarks, comprising over 60% of global equity and nearly 50% of bond benchmarks [75][76]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on FX hedging and diversifying into assets negatively correlated with the Dollar [79][80]. Diversification Opportunities - Attractive diversification strategies include regional and style diversification, selective commodity exposure, and allocations to alternatives like hedge funds and private markets [92][100]. - Defensive indices have outperformed during periods of volatility, particularly in the context of AI disruption fears [95][96]. Carry Trade Opportunities - Current low risk premia indicate limited opportunities for carry trades, with increased vulnerability to growth and rate shocks [101][102]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the multi-asset investment landscape as of early 2026.