March 28, 2025 06:01 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Can 1Q Strength Last? 1Q growth looks solid at 5.4%, fueled by tech investment and policy-front loading. But it remains uneven, as industrial profit margins, wage growth and housing prices slipped. Momentum could soften from 2Q amid tariff risks and global trade conditions. We see limited new policy action until 2H. Bear argument – Growth is set to soften from 2Q amid tariffs… While China's economy has likely turned more resilient to US tariff shock ...

Global Markets Strategy 26 March 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy 2Q25 outlook: one step back, two steps forward Equity Macro Research Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asi ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 March 2025 Asian Tech Key takeaways from call on Tech Restrictions and Tariffs We hosted a callwith expertsto discuss key tech regulations and tariffswhich could impactindustries and countriesinAsia.We summarize our key takeawaysfromthe call here: Technology and Telecoms Gokul Hariharan AC (852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Ranjan Sharma, CFA AC (65) 6882-1303 ranj ...

亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：寻求对等⸺下一步是 什么？ 除了增加从美国进口产品外，增加防御支出和对中国征收关 税还可能被提出作为修复贸易平衡、以达成贸易协议的潜在 要求。我们探讨其他亚洲经济体是否能够满足这些需求，以 及这意味着什么。 March 26, 2025 10:07 AM GMT 要点 在本报告中，我们探讨了三个问题⸺（1）亚洲是否能够通过增加商品购买来减 少对美国的贸易顺差，（2）是否有增加防御开支的财政空间，以及（3）亚洲经 济体会否对从中国进口的产品征收相应的关税。 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any ...

March 20, 2025 05:43 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America GTC: Financial analyst Q&A and other thoughts from the show. We summarize our final takeaways and observations from GTC following the analyst Q&A session, with us coming away more positive on the trajectory from here; OW , Top Pick in semis. We wrote about specific announcements last night (GTC Keynote Highlights very strong roadmap & strong growth potential), but here we highlight a few thoughts following another day of meetings and events. 1) Manage ...

Weekly Warm-up: A Rotation Back to the US Led by Mag 7? Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year. US Equity Strategy | North America M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532 Andrew B Pauker Equity Strategist Andrew ...

China's DeepSeek Moment TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | March 2025 For a government seeking to reinvigorate its economy and infuse its youth with optimism, DeepSeek's emergence is more than just an artificial intelligence (AI) milestone – it's a timely symbol of China's ambition to claim a leadership role in the tech revolution. DeepSeek's breakthrough will likely inspire a new generation of Chinese talent at a time of renewed nationalism. With China's strengths in consumer t ...

We raise our 2025 GDP forecast by 50bps to 4.5% on a stronger-than-expected starting point and solid capex momentum, aligning with consensus. That said, we still expect growth to soften from 2Q onwards amid tariff impact and reactive policy measures, and remain below consensus on nominal GDP. Debate on whether growth recovery can sustain and broaden out has been on the rise. Indeed, stimulus measures on local governments and consumption have started to filter through, leading to green shoots. We think a fur ...

March 23, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific Core OP Intact, but Wider New Initiatives Loss and Increased AI Investment We continue to estimate 2025 CLC OP at Rmb61bn, but expect the new initiatives loss to widen to Rmb9.5bn on a slower loss reduction pace for Select. Impact from the social security scheme should kick in from 2Q, but limited effect on 2025 food delivery OP and UE. OW. 4Q24 beat on CLC OP: Total revenue and adjusted EBITDA were largely in line with consensus, while core local commerce ...

March 20, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Edged Down on Lower Trading Volume A-share sentiment dropped with lower trading volume but remains elevated. We expect some volatility in the earnings season, but remain cautiously optimistic on a six-/12-month basis. Watch for geopolitical developments and tariff-related US government investigations on April 2. A-share investor sentiment dropped vs. pervious week: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI dropped 7ppt to 84% and 5ppt ...