亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：寻求对等⸺下一步是 什么？ 除了增加从美国进口产品外，增加防御支出和对中国征收关 税还可能被提出作为修复贸易平衡、以达成贸易协议的潜在 要求。我们探讨其他亚洲经济体是否能够满足这些需求，以 及这意味着什么。 March 26, 2025 10:07 AM GMT 要点 在本报告中，我们探讨了三个问题⸺（1）亚洲是否能够通过增加商品购买来减 少对美国的贸易顺差，（2）是否有增加防御开支的财政空间，以及（3）亚洲经 济体会否对从中国进口的产品征收相应的关税。 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any ...

March 20, 2025 05:43 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America GTC: Financial analyst Q&A and other thoughts from the show. We summarize our final takeaways and observations from GTC following the analyst Q&A session, with us coming away more positive on the trajectory from here; OW , Top Pick in semis. We wrote about specific announcements last night (GTC Keynote Highlights very strong roadmap & strong growth potential), but here we highlight a few thoughts following another day of meetings and events. 1) Manage ...

Weekly Warm-up: A Rotation Back to the US Led by Mag 7? Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year. US Equity Strategy | North America M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532 Andrew B Pauker Equity Strategist Andrew ...

China's DeepSeek Moment TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD | March 2025 For a government seeking to reinvigorate its economy and infuse its youth with optimism, DeepSeek's emergence is more than just an artificial intelligence (AI) milestone – it's a timely symbol of China's ambition to claim a leadership role in the tech revolution. DeepSeek's breakthrough will likely inspire a new generation of Chinese talent at a time of renewed nationalism. With China's strengths in consumer t ...

We raise our 2025 GDP forecast by 50bps to 4.5% on a stronger-than-expected starting point and solid capex momentum, aligning with consensus. That said, we still expect growth to soften from 2Q onwards amid tariff impact and reactive policy measures, and remain below consensus on nominal GDP. Debate on whether growth recovery can sustain and broaden out has been on the rise. Indeed, stimulus measures on local governments and consumption have started to filter through, leading to green shoots. We think a fur ...

March 23, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific Core OP Intact, but Wider New Initiatives Loss and Increased AI Investment We continue to estimate 2025 CLC OP at Rmb61bn, but expect the new initiatives loss to widen to Rmb9.5bn on a slower loss reduction pace for Select. Impact from the social security scheme should kick in from 2Q, but limited effect on 2025 food delivery OP and UE. OW. 4Q24 beat on CLC OP: Total revenue and adjusted EBITDA were largely in line with consensus, while core local commerce ...

March 20, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Edged Down on Lower Trading Volume A-share sentiment dropped with lower trading volume but remains elevated. We expect some volatility in the earnings season, but remain cautiously optimistic on a six-/12-month basis. Watch for geopolitical developments and tariff-related US government investigations on April 2. A-share investor sentiment dropped vs. pervious week: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI dropped 7ppt to 84% and 5ppt ...

March 17, 2025 10:14 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Idea The Viewpoint: Seeking Reciprocity – What's Next? Raising defense spending and putting tariffs on China were raised as potential asks for a trade deal in addition to importing more from the US to fix the trade balance. We explore if other Asia economies will be able to meet these demands and what this means. Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Jonathan Cheung Economist Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652 Kelly Wang Economist ...

Related reports: Tech Capex Up, Broad Recovery Still Elusive (14 March 2025) Strong Public Financing, Weak Household Credit (14 March 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 March 16, 2025 09:11 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Beijing's Stimulus, Tech and Reflation Foundation M New Competitive Edges Emerged For important disclosures, refer ...

March 17, 2025 02:24 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Consumption Press Conference: Modest Stimulus, Limited Clarity Key Takeaways Modest increase in welfare spending: The press conference disclosed a marginal increase (~Rmb4bn) in central government subsidies for basic public health service, basic medical assistance, and promotion of employment. These combined with the NPC's slightly improved basic pension and medical insurance amount to a Rmb75bn rise in basic welfare spending in 2025 over 2024. Limi ...