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爱婴室(603214):首次覆盖报告:深耕母婴零售,拓展高达基地
国泰君安· 2025-03-13 01:53
——爱婴室首次覆盖报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.12 深耕母婴零售,拓展高达基地 爱婴室(603214) 公 司 首 | | | | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 28.00 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格: | 19.10 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 9.95-24.96 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 2,646 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 139/139 | | 流通 B 股/H 股(百万股) | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益(百万元) | 1,097 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.92 | | 市净率(现价) | 2.4 | | 净负债率 | -2.88% | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -19% 6% 31% 55% 80% 105% 2024-03 2024-07 20 ...
美债大涨:Positivecarry带来的市场翻盘
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 13:36
[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年2月26日 周浩 孙英超 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 2603 Hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk billy.sun@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 美债大涨:Positive carry 带来的市场翻盘 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 2年美债收益率 30年美债收益率 (%) Positive carry 驱动长期债券走强 资料来源: Bloomberg ,国泰君安国际 图 1:Positive carry驱动长期债券走强 究 报 告 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 4 宏 观 研 美债收益率在过去的一周内出现了快速下滑,与此同时,美元、比特币以及 美股的表现也不尽人意。总体而言,"特朗普交易"开始出现进一步降温。 与 2017年的"特朗普交易"相比,本轮"特朗普交易"同样以"再通胀"作 为主题,也与 2017年一样,从年头开始,整体交易就显得较为滞涩,直至近 期出现了快速的反向平仓 ...
FICC策略:倒挂再现,衰退几何?
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 12:34
[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年3月5日 詹春立 张潇子骄 +852 2509 7745 +852 2509 5317 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] FICC 策略:倒挂再现,衰退几何? 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3个月 1年 2年 3年 5年 7年 10年 % 4/3/2025 3/2/2025 美债收益率曲线逐步变平至倒挂 资料来源: iFind ,国泰君安国际。 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 5 美债二次筑顶已经结束。十年期美债从 1 月中旬接近 4.8%的高位大幅回落至近期 4.2% 左右,完成了特朗普自选举成功后的"二次筑顶"。这印证了我们此前在一月初的判 断,彼时市场"再通胀交易"蔚然成风,加之 1 月经济基本面数据不弱,所以美债利率 水平持续走高。但我们当时认为更可能的情景是,关税力度大致符合或略强于预期,但 美联储政策受到掣肘,降息幅度并不像 ...
FICC策略:打破常规叙事,欧元为何上涨?
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 12:32
[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年2月19日 | [Table_Summary] FICC | 策略:打破常规叙事,欧元为何上涨? | | | james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk | 詹春立 +852 2509 7745 | 张潇子骄 +852 2509 5317 hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 在"美欧分歧"和"美国通胀再起"叙事逻辑下,欧元逆势走强 | | | | | | | 1.06 | | | | | | | | 1.05 | | | | | | | | 1.04 | | | | | | | | 1.03 | | | | | | | | 1.02 | | | | | | | | 1.01 | | | | | | | | 1.00 25-01 | 25-01 欧元兑美元汇率 | 25-01 | 25-01 | 25-01 | 25-02 | 25-02 | 资料来源: Wind ,国泰君安国际。 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正 ...
部分购车需求如期在春节前释放,“以旧换新”政策将继续促进2025年销量
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 11:07
Research 股 票 研 究 [Table_BasicInfo] Report: 中文版 Ivan Wu 吴凯翔 行业报告: Chinese version (852) 2509 2649 ivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk 13 February 2025 Heng Seng Index HK-listed Main Auto OEMs 资料来源: Bloomberg 、国泰君安国际。 港股主要车企和恒生指数表现 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2024/2/7 2024/4/7 2024/6/7 2024/8/7 2024/10/7 2024/12/7 2025/2/7 HSI 00175 00489 01114 01958 02238 02333 01211 09866 09868 02015 09863 资料来源: Bloomberg 、国泰君安国际。 Research Report Equity 证 券 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] 部分购车需求如期在春节前释放;"以旧换新"政策将继续促进2025 年销量 [Table_InvestInfo] ...
新天绿色能源(00956):现金充沛股息为盾,优质风电成长做矛
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 11:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of HKD 5.00 [1][10]. Core Views - The company possesses excellent wind power asset resources, and the profitability of its existing and newly commissioned wind power units is expected to exceed expectations due to favorable policies in the main installation areas [3][10]. - The market perceives that the company's wind power assets lack unique competitive advantages, but the report argues that the company's wind power projects have significant advantages in utilization hours and stable on-grid electricity prices [11][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 219 billion in 2024 to RMB 304 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% to 13.5% [13]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 0.48, RMB 0.66, and RMB 0.72 respectively [13][49]. Wind Power Asset Quality - The company’s wind power assets are primarily located in Hebei Province, with a total operational capacity of 636,000 kW, accounting for 98.1% of its total operational capacity [51]. - The average utilization hours for the company’s wind power projects from 2019 to 2023 were 2,459 hours, significantly higher than the provincial and national averages [59][11]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with a projected dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.26 for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.9% based on the current stock price [49][42]. - The company has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio, reaching 40.8% in 2023 [42][48]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s natural gas sales are expected to grow significantly, with projected sales volumes of 51.6 billion cubic meters in 2024, increasing to 74.5 billion cubic meters by 2026 [13]. - The natural gas segment has shown robust growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase [27]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in the clean energy sector in Hebei, focusing on wind and natural gas operations while planning to divest its solar assets [25][21]. - The company benefits from the support of the Hebei provincial government and has a strong market presence in the region [23][21].
平台费率正优化,小家电利润率有望改善
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 11:04
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.11 平台费率正优化,小家电利润率有望改善 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) 樊夏俐(分析师) 李汉颖(分析师) 021-38031654 021-38676666 010-83939833 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com lihanying026725@gtjas.com 本报告导读: 对电商平台内卷行为的监管趋严有望大幅度改善小家电企业的费用率水平,从而提 升其盈利能力,增持。 投资要点: 家用电器业《3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新,楼 市回稳奠基》2025.03.09 家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基,国补拉动内销 稳增》2025.03.06 家用电器业《厨电告别成长股模式,转型价值股 新征程》2025.03.04 家用电器业《楼市企稳厨电受益,周度零售数据 强改善》2025.03.02 家用电器业《Neo gamma 问世,开启机 ...
艾力斯(688578):聚焦肺癌精准治疗,创新引领步入收获期
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 09:14
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][30]. Core Insights - The company focuses on lung cancer treatment, with its core product, Furmetinib, experiencing rapid growth. It targets rare EGFR mutations and expands into overseas markets. The pipeline is rich, and the company continues to enhance its presence in the lung cancer sector [3][19]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 3.17, 3.87, and 4.72 yuan, respectively. The target price is set at 104.74 yuan based on absolute and relative valuation methods [3][30]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 791 million yuan in 2022 to 5,618 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.2% to 21.9% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 131 million yuan in 2022 to 2,125 million yuan in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 614.2% in 2023 [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 268.92 in 2022 to 16.52 in 2026, indicating improving profitability [5]. Product and Market Positioning - Furmetinib is positioned as a potential best-in-class EGFR-TKI, with significant advantages in efficacy and safety, particularly for patients with brain metastases. The product has shown rapid market uptake since its launch [3][19]. - The company is expanding its focus on rare EGFR mutations, with ongoing clinical trials for Exon20ins and PACC mutations, aiming for global market penetration [3][19]. Pipeline Development - The company has a diverse pipeline, including partnerships for the development of RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors, which are expected to enhance its competitive positioning in the lung cancer treatment market [3][19][38]. - The collaboration with ArriVent for global expansion of Furmetinib's indications is a strategic move to capture a larger market share [3][19].
HESAI(HSAI):FY24Q4业绩点评:规模效应助力全年盈利,机器人雷达快速放量
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 07:38
规模效应助力全年盈利,机器人雷达快速放量 禾赛(HSAI.O) 登记编号 S0880523110003 本报告导读: 盈利能力大超预期。智驾平权快速推进,ADAS 雷达下探至 10 万级别车型,ATX 系列加速渗透;机器人雷达快速放量,开启第二增长曲线。 投资要点: [Table_PicQuote] -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2024-03-11 2024-04-01 2024-04-19 2024-05-09 2024-05-30 2024-06-20 2024-07-11 2024-07-31 2024-08-20 2024-09-10 2024-09-30 2024-10-18 2024-11-07 2024-11-27 2024-12-18 2025-01-10 2025-01-31 2025-02-21 52周股价走势图 HSAI 纳斯达克综指 ——禾赛科技 FY24Q4 业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | | | --- | ...
REITs周报:行情修复,消费承压-2025-03-12
国泰君安· 2025-03-12 06:53
投资要点: | 债券研究 | | --- | | /[Table_Date] 2025.03.09 | | | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | --- | | | liuyu024100@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | | 汤志宇(研究助理) | | | | 021-38031036 | | | | tangzhiyu028695@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880123070149 | | 行情修复,消费承压 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) ——REITs 周报 本报告导读: 当前行情未调整到位下市场趋于震荡,比价逻辑下需关注其他市场对 REITs 行情的 影响。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 存单下轮行情的关键:中长期货币投放变化的时 点 2025.03.04 本轮地方债放量下的利差复盘与 3 月发行节奏展 望 2025.03.04 TS 合约的行情有何规律:关注跨品种利差和 IRR 策略 2025.03.04 转债向上仍有空间 2025.03.04 涨跌同源,静候花开 2 ...