行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 冉兆邦 A0230524090003 ranzb@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 1．市场回顾 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 02 日 股市 ADT 重回 2 万亿，保险行业 "引进来"再迎政策放松 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/2/24-2025/2/28） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 3.09%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.87pct。1）重申"并购 重组"为贯穿 2025 年全年的投资主线。继 2 月 14 日三大 AMC 公告实控人变更为中央 汇金（划转后中央汇金旗下 7 家券商[不含光 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 证券分析师 张静含 A0230522080004 zhangjh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李敏杰 A0230523070006 limj2@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 医药生物 ⚫ 市场表现：本周申万医药生物指数下跌 2.7%，同期上证指数下跌 1.7%，万得全 A（除 金融石油石化）下跌 2.7%。本周医药生物指数在 31 个申万一级子行业中表现排名第 23。各三级板块涨跌幅为：原料药（+2.6%）、化学制剂（-1.0%）、中药（- 0.8%）、血液制品（-1.0%）、疫苗（-3.9%）、其他生物制品（-1.7%）、医疗设备 （-3.0%）、医疗耗材（-3.6%）、体外诊断（-4.3%）、医药流通（-3.2%）、线下药 店（-4.4%）、医疗研发外包（-9.2%）、医院（-4.7%）。当前医药板块整体估值 23.1 倍（PE-2025E），在 31 个申万一级行业(2021)中排名第 5。 ⚫ 积极推动人工智能辅助诊疗在普惠支持型养老机构应用：2 月 28 日，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company benefited from successful acceptance of consumer electronics orders, leading to a significant increase in net profit margin in Q4. Despite underperformance in the lithium battery business, Q4 net profit margin showed notable improvements year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the high-margin consumer electronics business [9] - The lithium battery business is focusing on exports, new technology increments, and renovation demands. The company is actively expanding overseas and has received several targeted and intended orders from clients. New technologies, such as solid-state batteries, are driving demand for laser welding equipment [9] - The non-lithium battery business is gaining a higher order share, improving the profit structure. Orders from non-lithium sectors, including consumer electronics and medical devices, have higher gross margins compared to lithium orders. In the first three quarters of 2024, non-lithium orders accounted for 39% of new signed orders [9] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downward due to the slowdown in the lithium battery business acceptance pace. Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 175 million, 298 million, and 495 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 20, and 12. The company's valuation is below the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for growth despite short-term pressures [9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company reported a total revenue of 3.214 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.49%, with a net profit of 175 million, down 38.74% year-on-year. Q4 revenue was 1.014 billion, up 5.90% year-on-year and 36.35% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 81 million, up 137.89% year-on-year and 85.04% quarter-on-quarter [5][10] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024E to 2026E are as follows: total revenue of 3.501 billion in 2025E and 4.133 billion in 2026E, with net profits of 298 million and 495 million respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a benchmark enterprise in the "Good Housing Era," benefiting from technological breakthroughs in Hangzhou [8] - The company aims for a sales target of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on maintaining its ranking within the top 15 nationally [8] - The company has shown strong performance in land acquisition, with a significant focus on the Hangzhou market, and has reduced its interest-bearing debt while lowering financing costs [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 70,443 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 69.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,529 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.4% [6] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in profits, with net profits projected to reach 2,924 million yuan in 2025 and 3,227 million yuan in 2026 [6][9] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.4%, down from 4.2% at the end of 2023 [8] Sales and Market Position - In the first two months of 2025, the company achieved sales of 12.8 billion yuan, with a sales area of 290,000 square meters [8] - The average sales price per square meter was 43,800 yuan, significantly higher than the industry average of 22,000 yuan [8] - The company has increased its market share in the Hangzhou land market from 25% in 2023 to 38% in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4][5]. Core Insights - February 2025 saw a recovery in the real estate market, with a notable increase in sales figures, suggesting a potential "small spring" performance ahead [4][5]. - The sales data for February 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for 50 major real estate companies, with total sales amounting to 1,481 billion yuan, while the cumulative sales for January-February 2025 decreased by 7% compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in sales structure, with a 19% increase in average selling prices for new homes in February 2025, indicating a shift towards higher-quality urban markets [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In February 2025, Poly Development led the sales rankings with 16 billion yuan, followed by China Resources and China Overseas with 13.5 billion and 13.2 billion yuan respectively [2][4]. - The number of companies achieving sales over 10 billion yuan in February increased to five, up from two in the previous year [2][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the sales area decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, while sales revenue increased, indicating a shift towards higher-value properties [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the "stop falling and stabilize" policy implemented since September 2024 has positively impacted the market, leading to improved sales figures in early 2025 [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies such as Binjiang Group, Jianfa Co., and China Overseas Development, as well as undervalued firms like Xincheng Holdings and Longfor Group [4][5]. - It also suggests monitoring companies benefiting from urban renewal and second-hand housing intermediaries, indicating a diversified investment approach within the sector [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, indicating that the sector has outperformed the market recently [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic beauty brands are experiencing a surge in brand power due to the recent trend of celebrity endorsements, with brands like Proya and Marubi enhancing their market presence [4][9]. - The report highlights significant financial performance from key players, such as Cosmax, which reported a consolidated sales figure of 21.661 trillion KRW (approximately 10.98 billion RMB) for 2024, marking a 21.9% year-on-year increase [4][19]. - AI technology is being leveraged in the development of synthetic biological products, as evidenced by the recent C-round financing of over 500 million RMB for Ruide Lin Bio [4][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining only 0.6% from February 21 to February 28, 2025, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 2.0 percentage points [4][5]. - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index increased by 1.1%, and the Shenwan Personal Care Index rose by 3.3%, both outperforming the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. Key News Highlights - Cosmax achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 10 billion RMB in sales, driven by strong growth in both domestic and export markets [4][19]. - The report notes the successful launch of brand ambassadors for various domestic brands, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [4][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their strong brand matrices and market positioning, including Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi [4]. - It suggests focusing on companies with robust product pipelines and high profitability in the medical beauty sector, such as Aimeike [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the Chinese skincare market reached a size of 281.8 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, highlighting the increasing market share of domestic brands [4][29]. - The color cosmetics market also saw a recovery, with a size of 61.8 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [4][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in brand apparel [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.9% from February 21 to 28, outperforming the SW All A index by 3.4 percentage points [3][4]. - Recent industry data indicates a slight decline in retail sales for clothing and textiles, with a total retail sales of 162.9 billion yuan in December 2024, down 0.3% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [3][18]. - Exports of textiles and apparel reached 28.07 billion USD in December 2024, marking an 11.1% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in textile yarns and fabrics [3][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with notable gains in the apparel and home textiles index, which rose by 1.4% [3][4]. - Key stocks that performed well include Zhongyin Fashion (+15.9%), Hason Shares (+15.5%), and Huasheng Shares (+13.7%) [4]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the expected recovery in consumer demand, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [6]. - Three main areas of focus for investment are identified: 1. Outdoor sports demand due to upcoming events [6]. 2. Home textiles and children's clothing, which are supported by ongoing policy encouragement [6]. 3. The integration of AI in apparel design and manufacturing, enhancing efficiency [6][7]. Technological Advancements - The textile industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with a focus on new materials and AI applications [7]. - Companies are exploring dual business models, combining traditional textile operations with new growth areas such as computing and semiconductors [7]. Company Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of 5.183 billion USD for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with a significant profit turnaround [3][17]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including sports brands like Anta Sports and Bosideng, as well as textile manufacturers like Huayi Group and Shenzhou International [3][6]. Export and Pricing Data - The report notes a 2.8% year-on-year increase in total textile and apparel exports for 2024, amounting to 301.1 billion USD [21]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with domestic cotton prices reported at 14,821 yuan per ton as of February 28, 2025 [23].

建筑装饰 本期投资提示： ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+0.70%，沪深 300 指数 -2.22%% ，相对收益为+2.92pct，在 31 个板块排名中排第 6 位。周涨幅 最大的三个子行业分别为家装（+2.42%）、基建央企（+2.04%）、国际工 程（+1.76%），对应行业内三个公司：中天精装（+4.37%）、中国交建 （+4.95%）、中工国际（+3.96%）；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是国际 工程（+8.71%）、家装（+7.40%）、专业工程（+6.94%），对应行业内三 个公司：北方国际（+16.97%）、中天精装（+16.94%）、海南华铁 （+72.84%）。 2025 年 03 月 02 日 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250224-20250228） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)2329 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a sales ranking improvement, reaching 4th place nationally, with notable sales performance in Hangzhou, where sales amounted to 5.1 billion yuan, leading the market [8] - The company has maintained an active land acquisition strategy, with a land acquisition amount of 10.1 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, a significant increase from the previous year [8] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per share, reflecting a commitment to a high dividend strategy with a projected dividend yield of 7% [8] - The company intends to acquire an additional 10% stake in its subsidiary, enhancing its asset concentration and profitability [8] - The company forecasts a net profit of 3.22 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected increase to 4.03 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a positive growth outlook [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 763.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 13.10 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 108.8% [6] - The earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 1.09 yuan, with a projected increase to 1.37 yuan in 2025 [6] - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 4.4% for 2023, with expectations of stability in the following years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][30]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with both new and second-hand home sales increasing. The new home transaction area in 34 key cities reached 2.9 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 37% [4][5]. - The report highlights a combination of supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including expanded support for urban renewal projects and adjustments to housing loan policies [4][30]. - The report suggests that the industry is experiencing a convergence of policy, credit, and demand bottoms, which is expected to enhance market stability and growth [4][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities increased by 36.6% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities also seeing a 37% increase [5][4]. - In February, new home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 12%, with first and second-tier cities up by 22% [8][4]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 0.5%, with a current available area of 90.54 million square meters [23][4]. Policy and News Tracking - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic demand [30][31]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced expanded support for urban village renovations, ensuring proper compensation and relocation for affected residents [30][31]. - Various cities have implemented adjustments to housing loan policies, including lowering down payment ratios for second homes [30][31]. Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou reported a 36% decline in net profit for 2024, while Poly Developments announced a valuation enhancement plan [4][39]. - Green Town China has applied for a $500 million priority note due in 2028, while Poly Developments issued a mid-term note of 2 billion at 2.6% for five years [39][4]. - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 2.22% compared to a 2.22% decline in the CSI 300 Index [4][30].