Economic Growth Targets - The weighted GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2026 is set at 5.0%, down from 5.3% in 2025[21] - A total of 18 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets for 2026, accounting for approximately 60% of the total[23] - The average reduction in economic targets among the provinces that lowered their goals is 0.5%[23] Investment and Consumption Targets - The weighted investment target for 14 comparable regions is approximately 4.4%, down from 6.4% the previous year[21] - The weighted consumption target for 16 comparable regions is around 4.7%, lower than last year's target of 5.4%[21] CPI and Budget Revenue - The CPI target for most regions remains around 2%, consistent with the national target[21] - The overall target for general public budget revenue has been lowered, with 6 out of 21 regions adjusting their targets downward[21]

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.3% [1] - The strong job growth, particularly in healthcare, has dampened market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing the anticipated timing for the first rate cut of the year to July [1] - Following the data release, major indices experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq down 0.16% and the S&P 500 closing nearly flat [1] Economic Trends - The January employment rebound is viewed as a response to the previous year's significant slowdown in job growth, with the total employment growth for the previous year revised down from 584,000 to 181,000 [4] - The current strong data may not indicate a stable long-term trend, as concerns about the labor market's rapid weakening persist [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in March has risen to over 94%, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is facing significant selling pressure, with concerns about "AI disruption" spreading from software to real estate and financial services [4] - Despite the overall market weakness, sectors such as energy, materials, and consumer staples have shown relative strength, indicating a rotation of funds from high-valuation growth stocks to value and hard asset stocks [4] - Micron's stock surged by 10% due to expectations of increased capacity for HBM4, highlighting a renewed focus on the certainty of AI hardware investments [4]

Market Overview - The US retail sales data for December remained flat month-on-month, falling short of the expected growth of 0.4%, indicating a gradual weakening in consumer spending as the holiday season comes to an end [1] - Following the data release, the market slightly increased the probability of three interest rate cuts within the year, with two already fully priced in, leading to a significant drop of 6 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield, reaching a near one-month low [1] - The overall market sentiment was cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report, resulting in a mixed performance across major indices, with the Nasdaq down 0.59% and the Dow Jones up 0.10% [1] Core Insights - The launch of an AI-based tax planning tool by the technology platform Altruist has raised concerns about AI's impact on traditional wealth management, leading to a drop of over 7% in Charles Schwab's stock, mirroring previous sell-offs in the insurance brokerage and software sectors [3] - The narrative surrounding AI's potential to replace professional roles in legal research, data organization, financial analysis, and code collaboration may continue to trigger rotational sell-offs in the short term [3] - Despite a recent stabilization in software stocks after significant declines, the overall sector remains fragile, with capital rotating into materials and utilities, which are less affected by AI trading [3] - The focus of trading is shifting from beneficiaries of favorable conditions to victims of adverse impacts, with previously concentrated sectors like computing power, networking, and energy showing signs of stagnation [3] - Concerns regarding AI threats are nearing a peak, and the recent declines in certain sectors may reflect an overpricing of short-term AI impacts, suggesting potential opportunities to capture mispriced assets within the sector [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show job growth in the range of 60,000 to 80,000, with a better-than-expected result potentially boosting market confidence and alleviating recent selling pressures [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is in a narrow - range corridor. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may remain warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the key resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7]. - In 2026, the local bond market will "front - load" issuance, and funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction, urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional major infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks, and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11]. - In 2026, the global attractiveness of Chinese fixed - income assets may increase, but the allocation power of overseas investors may not be the decisive factor affecting the bond yield trend [12]. - In the context of a volatile domestic stock market, investors can focus on four bond market allocation opportunities: the allocation and trading value of interest - rate bonds, the coupon advantage of high - quality credit bonds, the enhanced elasticity opportunity of convertible bonds, and the diversification value of international allocation [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Central Economic Work Conference and Monetary Policy in 2026 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (the current average legal deposit reserve ratio is 6.3%) and interest rate cuts (stable RMB exchange rate, narrowing bank net interest margin, and maturing long - term deposits) [6] 1.2 Bond Market Pattern in 2026 - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.8% - 1.9%. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may be warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the 1.80% resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7] 1.3 Inclination of Local Bond Market Scale in 2026 - Funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction (related to new technologies), urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks (about 6 trillion special refinancing bonds for debt replacement will be basically issued), and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11] 1.4 Global Attractiveness of Chinese Fixed - Income Assets in 2026 - Chinese fixed - income assets can effectively diversify risks in a global asset portfolio. With the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, their global attractiveness may increase, but the influence of overseas investors may not be decisive [12] 1.5 Bond Market Allocation Opportunities in 2026 - Interest - rate bonds: Provide a stable foundation for portfolio construction and trading opportunities for investors with certain trading abilities [15] - High - quality credit bonds: Focus on high - quality urban investment bonds in economically strong regions and industrial bonds in strategic industries [16] - Convertible bonds: Select bonds related to policy - supported sectors and pay attention to valuation [17] - International allocation: Chinese interest - rate bonds can attract foreign capital, and some high - quality Chinese dollar bonds can be a useful supplement [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is poised for significant growth, supported by recent policy initiatives aimed at enhancing communication and navigation infrastructure [6][9]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating new technologies such as AI and big data into the low-altitude industry, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and safety [6][9]. - The government aims for a 90% coverage of ground mobile communication networks for low-altitude public air routes by 2027, indicating strong future demand for related technologies and services [6]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Multiple policies have been introduced since 2026 to support the low-altitude economy, including guidelines for establishing a standard system and enhancing infrastructure [8][10]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen governments have set ambitious targets for the low-altitude economy, including a projected industry scale of 80 billion yuan by 2028 [8][10]. Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch include: - **Suzhou Planning**: Plans to acquire Dongjin Aviation Technology, which specializes in air traffic management systems [14][16]. - **Brilliant Technology**: Engaged in eVTOL certification processes and has a strong order backlog, indicating robust growth potential [20][22]. - **Deep City Transportation**: Focused on low-altitude design consulting and infrastructure, with projects across multiple cities [24][26]. Market Trends - The number of registered drones in China is expected to reach 2.177 million by 2024, reflecting a 71.8% year-on-year increase, which underscores the rapid growth of the low-altitude sector [10][11]. - The number of general airports has increased to 475, indicating a growing infrastructure to support the low-altitude economy [12].

Market Overview - After a significant decline due to concerns over AI replacing software, market sentiment improved this week, with funds beginning to trade oversold conditions. The continued weakening of the dollar also provided additional support for risk assets and gold [1] - The technology sector continued its rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 closing above the critical 100-day moving average. Notably, Oracle surged nearly 10%, and Google announced plans to issue $20 billion in bonds to increase AI spending, reflecting confidence in its long-term competitiveness in the search engine and AI ecosystem [1] Software Sector Analysis - Despite a rebound led by Oracle, the software sector remains below last week's opening highs, indicating that while it may be at a bottom, it has not yet stabilized. The report suggests that internal differentiation within the sector will intensify, and investors should be cautious rather than blindly bottom-fishing [3] - The report highlights that traditional software business models and revenue sources may face significant disruption from generative AI, automation platforms, and alternative tools. Companies with proprietary data and strong AI integration capabilities are likely to benefit [3] Investment Strategy - The market's trading focus shifted from AI builders in the tech sector to value stocks that are short-term beneficiaries of AI, such as DOW, WMT, and FDX, which have seen significant rebounds. The report notes that the most shorted stocks have risen over 11% from last week's lows, indicating a potential clearing of short positions [3] - The adjusted valuations of M7, OpenAI chain, and the software sector provide reasonable entry points for buyers, suggesting a potential return to a risk-on market environment focused on AI and resource hedging [3] Macroeconomic Considerations - The report emphasizes that macroeconomic uncertainties remain high, particularly with the delayed release of January non-farm payroll and the latest CPI data, which could influence market dynamics. Currently, the market appears inclined to maintain a certain level of risk exposure ahead of these data releases [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI inference is leading innovation, with a focus on demand-driven Opex-related areas, specifically storage, power, ASIC, and supernodes [2][28]. - It highlights the expected growth in the storage sector due to new product breakthroughs from Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, predicting a significant expansion year for domestic storage capacity [29]. - The report also notes the anticipated increase in ASIC market share and the evolution of cabinet models, with a positive outlook on high-speed interconnects, cabinet manufacturing, liquid cooling, and PCB demand [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11%. The Shenwan Electronics Index decreased by 5.23%, ranking 29th among 31 Shenwan industries [1][13]. Weekly Focus - Nvidia is set to launch new Arm architecture-based chips, specifically the N1X and N1 processors, designed for AI computing, which will compete directly with AMD and Intel in the laptop market [26][27]. Storage Sector - The report identifies key players in the NAND & DRAM semiconductor industry, including Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Anji Technology, and suggests focusing on the overall opportunities within the domestic storage industry chain [29]. Power Sector - The report recommends attention to new technologies in both the power generation and consumption sides, highlighting companies like Sanhuan Group and Zhongfu Circuit [30]. ASIC and Supernodes - The report anticipates an increase in ASIC's market share and suggests monitoring major CSP manufacturers, while also noting the expected growth in demand for high-speed interconnects and related technologies [30]. Domestic Computing Power Chain - The report underscores the improvement in domestic advanced process yields and capacity, which is expected to enhance the supply side of domestic computing power chips, alongside a clearer commercialization model for domestic CSP manufacturers [30][31].

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the public utility sector, emphasizing a focus on "dividend + growth" opportunities and an increased allocation towards solid waste management in the environmental sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector's fund allocation stabilized and increased in Q4 2025, with a market value of approximately 144.54 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of total fund allocation, a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous quarter [5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies that possess both dividend attributes and growth potential, particularly in light of improved profitability expectations due to capacity and electricity pricing policies [5][23]. - The environmental sector is advised to concentrate on solid waste management operations and companies with marginal improvements or thematic flexibility, as the demand for green fuels continues to tighten [5][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings Overview - In Q4 2025, the top ten stocks in the public utility sector by fund holdings included Changjiang Electric, Huaneng International, and China Nuclear Power, with significant increases in holdings for Huaneng International and Changjiang Electric [5][23][24]. 2. Weekly Review of the Sector - From February 2 to February 6, 2026, the public utility index rose by 0.16%, while the environmental index increased by 0.09%, contrasting with declines in the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [5][29]. 3. Dynamics of the Public Utility Sector 3.1 Electricity Tracking - In February 2026, the average transaction price for electricity in Jiangsu was 312.80 yuan/MWh, down 3.67% month-on-month and 23.89% year-on-year. In Shanxi, the average price was 288.65 yuan/MWh, down 1.17% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [5][41]. 3.2 Power Generation - The total power generation in December 2025 was approximately 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.46% and a month-on-month increase of 10.19% [5][44]. 4. Price and Inventory Tracking - The report notes an upward trend in thermal coal prices, with the CCI index at 696 yuan/ton as of February 4, 2026, reflecting a slight increase [5][7]. - Natural gas prices showed a decrease, with the LNG ex-factory price index at 3965 yuan/ton as of February 6, 2026, down 1.98% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new A-share accounts, with January 2026 seeing 4.92 million new accounts opened, a year-on-year increase of 213% and a month-on-month increase of 89%, marking one of the highest monthly figures in nearly a decade [5][13]. - The insurance industry is projected to achieve steady growth in 2025, with original insurance premium income expected to reach CNY 6.12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 7.43%, and total assets expected to grow to CNY 41.32 trillion, a 15.06% increase [36][37]. - The report emphasizes the positive correlation between market recovery and the performance of brokerage firms, suggesting that the high growth in account openings will provide a solid customer base for the brokerage industry in 2026 [5][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report notes that the recent regulatory measures on virtual currencies aim to strengthen financial security and curb speculative activities, which is expected to create a more stable investment environment [12]. - The performance of major indices showed a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.11% during the week [14]. - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37 times, which is at the 67th percentile of its historical range over the past three years, indicating a relatively attractive valuation [30]. 2. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The insurance sector is experiencing a clear differentiation in growth, with life insurance premiums reaching CNY 4.36 trillion, up 8.9%, while property insurance premiums grew by 3.9% to CNY 1.76 trillion [36][37]. - The report identifies life insurance as the core growth driver, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels, while property insurance is seeing growth in non-auto segments, particularly in agricultural and health insurance [37][38]. - The future growth trajectory of the insurance industry is expected to be shaped by a shift towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on diversified product offerings and enhanced distribution channels [38]. 3. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report indicates that the central bank's recent operations resulted in a net withdrawal of CNY 6.56 billion, reflecting ongoing adjustments in liquidity management [44]. - The issuance of local government bonds totaled CNY 5.80 billion, with a net injection of CNY 5.79 billion, highlighting active fiscal measures in the market [44].