Group 1: Fixed Income Market Overview - The 10Y government bond yield has shown a downward trend, decreasing by 2.10 basis points to 1.8090% compared to the previous week, influenced by discussions on new monetary policy tools and a weakening equity market [2][3] - The overall liquidity in the money market remains stable, with a slight increase in funding rates as the month-end approaches, but the central bank's supportive stance keeps the cross-month pressure manageable [4][11] Group 2: Money Market Analysis - The central bank's net liquidity injection this week was 530.5 billion, with a notable increase in the 7-day reverse repo balance to 17,615 billion, up by 5,805 billion from the previous week [11][12] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with DR007 rising by 9.91 basis points to 1.59% and R007 increasing by 10.41 basis points to 1.64% as of January 30, 2026 [25][26] Group 3: Primary Market Supply - The net supply of interest rate bonds decreased significantly this week to 3,805.14 billion, a drop of 3,544.45 billion from the previous week, with government bonds showing a net supply of -1,133.40 billion [32][34] - The net financing scale of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) turned positive this week, totaling 37.30 billion, an increase of 1,544.40 billion from the previous week [32][39] Group 4: Secondary Market Performance - The yield curve for government bonds is flattening, with the 10Y/1Y yield spread narrowing, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42][50] - The absolute level of government bond yields shows a downward trend, with the 10Y yield slightly decreasing, while the 30Y local government bond yield has seen a minor increase [47][49]

中国神华（601088）动态点评 业绩逆势稳健，龙头价值凸显 2026 年 02 月 02 日 【事项】 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。按中国企业会计准则，25 年归母净利润 495~545 亿元，同比-11.3%~-2.3%，中枢 520 亿元，同比-6.8%；扣 非净利 472~502 亿元，同比-21.5%~-16.5%，中枢 487 亿元，同比- 19%。25 年非经常性损益预计为利得，主要原因是冲减无需支付的支 出（或主要为冲回前期计提的储备项目）。 【评论】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 《25Q2 归母净利环增 6%，盈利韧性和中 期 79%分红彰显龙头风范》 2025.09.04 《打造央企重组示范标杆，切实保护中小 股东利益》 2025.08.20 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 中国神华 沪深300 | 基本数据 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is advancing in technical innovation, particularly in new materials, and plans to acquire an 80% stake in Ningbo Aisikai for 516 million yuan, which is expected to enhance profitability [1][7]. - The DVA (Dynamic Vulcanized Polyolefin) material developed by the company shows significant improvements over traditional materials, with gas barrier properties enhanced by 7-10 times and weight reduction of up to 80% [7]. - The acquisition of Ningbo SK is strategically positioned to enter the EPDM market, which is characterized by high entry barriers and a favorable competitive landscape [7]. - The company is making breakthroughs in robotic materials, including ultra-soft TPE for artificial muscles and conductive TPE for circuit printing, which could reduce manufacturing costs and enhance product flexibility [7]. - The company is also expanding its high-end polyester materials production, with a new 20,000-ton PCTG production line aimed at filling domestic market gaps [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.48 billion yuan, 7.37 billion yuan, and 8.51 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 183 million yuan, 248 million yuan, and 352 million yuan [8][9]. - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.38 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.73 yuan, with P/E ratios of 76.34, 56.29, and 39.76 [9].

行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 装 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 建筑装饰行业周报 未来产业大时代来临，重视建筑企业跨 界转型大机遇 2026 年 02 月 01 日 【投资要点】 商业航天&低空经济：商业航天与低空经济同为拓展人类活动与资源 获取边界，激发经济活力的重要载体。同时本周中国航天科技集团宣 布全面实施"155 战略"，关注【苏州规划】（拟收购的东进航科布 局低空基建并与中国星网合作空天大数据的算法与系统研发），【亚 玛顿】（钙钛矿电池）、【隆华科技】（PMI）、【凯盛科技】（UTG 玻璃）、【上海港湾】（钙钛矿电池）、【中衡设计】（参股致航科 技）、【招标股份】（卫星数据分析）。 （太空）算力：本周 SpaceX 申请部署至多 100 万颗卫星欲建轨道 AI 数据中心网络，重视算力基建与商业航天结合并扩展至太空的逻辑。 关注板块内布局算力业务的【罗曼股份】、【浦东建设】。 机器人：以具身智能、人形机器人、黑灯工厂等为核心，进一步推动 我国制造业竞争力提升。与国内领先四足/双足机器人企业镜识科技/矩 阵超智深度合作的【宏润建设】，进军消防机器人行业的【青鸟消防】， 以及研发工业机器人的头部钢结构企业【鸿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a new round of urban renewal, with significant potential in the consumer building materials segment as it shows resilience against the declining demand in the new housing market [2][9]. - The industry is witnessing a consolidation trend, with leading companies emerging from the profit trough, while smaller firms are being eliminated due to declining profitability [2][9]. - Price increases have been observed in various segments, including waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, as companies adjust their strategies post-downturn [2][9]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a traditional off-season, with demand expected to weaken. The average price is around 350 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 2.7 RMB per ton [25][32]. - The average shipment rate for cement companies has increased by approximately 3 percentage points, reaching about 32% [27][32]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential new projects post-Chinese New Year [32]. Glass - The glass sector is also entering a demand lull, with the average price of float glass at 1,145 RMB per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 6 RMB [34]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a reported stock of approximately 4,927 million weight boxes, down by 1% week-on-week [34]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the industry anticipates a stabilization point after recent downturns [34][46]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with a potential for price increases post-holiday due to stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic sectors [9][12]. - The price of electronic cloth is currently stable, with expectations for continued high demand in mid-to-high-end products [12]. - Key recommendations include China Jushi and International Composites, with a focus on their growth potential [9][12]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with the commercial aerospace sector expected to drive new demand growth in 2026 [12][15]. - The industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the development of commercial aerospace may provide new opportunities [12][15]. - Companies to monitor include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as they may benefit from this emerging demand [12][15].

策略快报 美股前瞻 01.30：今晚将公布新任主席， AI 硬切软或尚需时日 2026 年 01 月 30 日 【大盘概述】 昨晚市场对微软巨额 AI CapEx 的未来 ROIC 恐慌引发其股价重挫近 10%，创下自 2020 年以来最大单日跌幅，拖累整个软件板块及美股大 盘，而 Meta 因稳健的业绩展望缓解了市场对其 CapEx 计划的担忧， 大涨超 10%。美伊紧张局势支撑供应风险叙事，原油三连涨，日内涨 3%，币圈则遭重挫，比特币大跌 6%至两个月低点。昨晚黄金涨势逆 转，金价在逼近 5600 美元历史高位后反转，较日高暴跌近 9%，随后 跌幅收窄不足 1%。截至收盘纳指跌 0.72%，费城半导体指数收涨 0.15%，M7 跌 0.90%，标普 500 跌 0.13%，道指涨 0.11%，罗素 2000 收跌 0.05%。 【核心观点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：陈果 证书编号：S1160525040001 证券分析师：殷明伦 《美股前瞻 01.22：特朗普 TACO 速度再 超预期，风偏回暖半导体新高》 2026.01.22 《美股前瞻 01.21：格陵兰争端叠加日债 抛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with a projected net profit of 13.5 to 20 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 142.10% to 162.37% [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its main business areas, including functional coatings, photoresists, and related materials, while accelerating its layout in marine engineering coatings and high-performance specialty coatings [4] - The marine anti-corrosion coatings market is anticipated to have significant growth potential due to high entry barriers and stringent performance testing requirements [4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve approximately 480 million yuan in revenue for 2025, with a net profit turning positive [4] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -7.04%, 30.25%, and 37.54%, respectively [5][12] - The estimated net profit for 2025 to 2027 is 15 million, 38 million, and 57 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 353.40, 136.29, and 90.52 [5][12] Market Position - The company is a leading supplier in the photovoltaic BC battery insulation glue sector, although it has faced a revenue decline of approximately 35 million yuan in this area due to market dynamics [4] - The company has completed most of the capacity construction and trial production at its Longnan base, aiming to enhance operational efficiency through centralized production [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic motorcycle brand with over 30 years of experience in the motorcycle industry, focusing on its high-end self-owned brand "Wuji," which has shown significant growth [4][16]. - The overseas market for large-displacement motorcycles presents substantial growth potential, with the company currently holding a small market share [4][6]. - The integration with Zongshen is expected to enhance governance and operational efficiency, potentially leading to synergistic benefits [6][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total market capitalization of 31,829.90 million yuan and a 52-week price range of 16.29 to 9.63 yuan, with a 52-week increase of 60.96% [4]. - The company has shifted its strategy to focus on its core motorcycle business and has seen a significant increase in revenue from its Wuji brand, which achieved 1.98 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [4][19]. Industry Analysis - The global motorcycle market is projected to reach 56 million units in 2024, with a market size of 145.5 billion USD, reflecting a growth rate of 6.7% [34]. - The Asian market accounts for 85% of motorcycle sales, while the European and American markets are characterized by higher average prices and a preference for larger displacement motorcycles [36][40]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to generate revenues of 19.39 billion, 22.26 billion, and 24.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.33 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.5% [30]. Strategic Developments - The integration with Zongshen is anticipated to improve governance and operational efficiency, with a projected increase in the dividend payout ratio to 73% by 2024 [6][22]. - The company has been expanding its overseas channels, with a significant increase in the number of stores, which grew by 1,086 since 2020 [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a robust growth in new contracts, with a total of 3.17 billion yuan signed in 2025, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year increase. The municipal projects have doubled, contributing significantly to this growth [1]. - The company’s backlog stands at 10.16 billion yuan, which is 1.7 times its expected revenue for 2024, suggesting a stable outlook for its core infrastructure business [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, particularly in robotics, with significant developments in partnerships and product launches, indicating a strategic shift towards technology integration [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections New Contracts and Revenue Growth - In Q4 2025, the company signed contracts worth 489 million yuan, with contributions from rail transit, municipal, and construction projects [1]. - The total new contracts for 2025 reached 3.17 billion yuan, with municipal projects alone accounting for 1.78 billion yuan, marking a 100% increase year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 286.59 million yuan in 2025, with a modest growth of 1.3% [6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 5.92 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.41 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% increase [7]. Robotics and New Business Ventures - The company has invested in Matrix Intelligence, enhancing its capabilities in robotics, with new products like the MATRIX-3 humanoid robot showcasing advanced features [5]. - The strategic investment in Mirror Technology aims to leverage robotics for industrial applications, indicating a strong alignment with the company's core business [5].

Market Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is currently experiencing a strong performance, with the S&P 500 reaching 7000 points, driven by positive earnings reports from semiconductor companies like ASML [1] - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, signaling no immediate plans for rate cuts, which has led to a temporary pause in market gains [1] - Despite a strong dollar policy, precious metals like gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with gold rising 4% to surpass $5400 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current economic environment in the U.S. remains resilient, with strong corporate investment and consumer spending, indicating a robust economy [3] - Earnings reports show that the U.S. stock market is still in a high-growth phase for AI hardware, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Seagate (up 19.14%) and Intel (up 11.04%) [3] - The semiconductor market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in AI-related sectors, while demand from automotive and industrial sectors remains relatively low [3] - The report suggests that the demand for hard assets is expected to surpass traditional macroeconomic cycles, indicating a shift towards sectors like AI and data centers [3] - The report identifies high-growth AI hardware chains, strong profit expectations from major tech platforms, and select energy and resource stocks as key investment directions in the U.S. stock market [3]