超配（维持） 政策预期强化，关注景气细分 食品饮料行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料行业指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 证 券 深 度 研 究 食品饮料行业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 外部不确定性增加+国内政策定调积极，行业重视度提升。近期外部 不确定性增加，提振内需或将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一环。叠 加国内消费定调积极，食品饮料业绩受海外市场影响较小，行业重视 度提升。 ◼ 白酒板块：根据酒业家调研数据显示，今年春节白酒动销同比下滑10% 左右。节后，步入酒企销售淡季，主要以控货挺价为主。从酒企 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 21.260 billion yuan, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 6.17% due to increased support for receivables and consumer cultivation efforts [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company demonstrated resilience with a total revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80% year-on-year [5]. - The company plans to align its 2025 revenue targets with macroeconomic indicators, maintaining a steady and rational operational goal [5]. - The company announced a year-end dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 12.301 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 70% [5]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenues of 93.723 billion yuan for 2025, 99.159 billion yuan for 2026, and 105.406 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 33.527 billion yuan, 35.620 billion yuan, and 38.043 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 8.64 yuan for 2025 and 9.18 yuan for 2026, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15 times and 14 times respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [7] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, China Pacific Insurance achieved a significant increase in new insurance premiums through the bancassurance channel, with new single premiums growing by 130.7% year-on-year [7] - The company's total investment yield has declined, primarily due to fluctuations in bond rates affecting the fair value of FVTPL bond assets [7] - The report highlights a robust performance in life insurance, with a new business value (NBV) growth of 11.3% year-on-year, and a comparable growth of 39.0% [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, insurance service revenue reached 695.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while total revenue was 937.17 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year. Net profit was 96.27 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% decline year-on-year [5] - The total investment assets amounted to 2.81 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8% from the previous year [7] Business Segments - Life Insurance: The scale premium reached 1,184.22 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, with new business value at 57.78 billion yuan, marking an 11.3% increase [7] - Property Insurance: The original insurance premium income was 631.08 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a combined underwriting cost ratio of 97.4%, down 0.6 percentage points [7] Investment Outlook - The report projects a net profit of 452.11 billion yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.53 as of April 25 [7][8]

证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3295.06 | -0.07% | -2.23 | | | 深证成指 | 9917.06 | 0.39% | 38.74 | | | 沪深 300 | 3786.99 | 0.07% | 2.64 | | | 创业板 | 1947.19 | 0.59% | 11.33 | | | 科创 50 | 1004.57 | 0.13% | 1.26 | | | 北证 50 | 1300.19 | -1.11% | -14.54 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 周五，市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一。早盘三大指数集体高开后有所分化， 沪指全天小幅震荡，3300 点得而复失，深成指、创业板指冲高回落表现偏强。截至收盘， 三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指领涨。盘面上，电力股集体大涨，算力股展开反弹，统一大 市场概念股一度 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating to the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market index by 5%-15% over the next six months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 2.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.049 billion yuan, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 1,054.18% [7]. - New projects have shown impressive performance, with the Foshan project achieving profitability in its first year and the Three Gorges project generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue within 100 days of opening [7]. - The impact of the Huafang Group on profits has been largely eliminated, with the company's long-term equity investment balance stabilizing and the potential for further impairment provisions being minimal [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2,417 million yuan and a net profit of 1,049 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 0.44 yuan and 0.52 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.77 and 18.37 [8][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 525 million yuan, which represents 50.01% of the net profit for 2024, doubling the dividend amount from the previous year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1129.94 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.11% to 57.03 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in fuel costs and ongoing asset injections are key factors contributing to the company's performance [1]. - The company plans to acquire a significant stake in various subsidiaries from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance its installed capacity and market competitiveness in the power sector [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a slight decline in electricity generation, with a total of 2226.26 billion kWh in 2024, down approximately 0.52% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was about 511.74 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 1.46% [4]. - Coal sales revenue fell by 25.43% to 7.905 billion yuan due to reduced coal trading activities [4]. - The average closing price of the stock was 5.81 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 565.93 billion yuan [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average closing price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal was 855.50 yuan/ton, down 11.43% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in fuel costs to approximately 705.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.49% [4]. - The company's net profit growth of 26.11% was primarily driven by lower coal prices [4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.63 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.71 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9, 9, and 8 [4]. - The ongoing asset injection is expected to significantly expand the company's installed capacity, enhancing its competitive position in the electricity market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][50]. Core Insights - The Shanghai International Auto Show is set to take place from April 23 to May 2, 2025, with over 100 new car launches planned, of which more than 70% will be new energy vehicles [50]. - The Chinese automotive market continues to show rapid growth, with production and sales in the first quarter of 2025 increasing by 14.5% and 11.2% year-on-year, respectively [50]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the automotive sector, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 5.62% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.30 percentage points [10][11]. Industry Data Tracking - In March 2025, China's automotive production reached 3.006 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and a month-on-month increase of 42.9% [18]. - Automotive sales in March 2025 were 2.915 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% and a month-on-month growth of 36.2% [18]. - The automotive export volume for March 2025 was 507,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.0% [18]. - The dealer inventory warning index stood at 54.6%, down 3.70 percentage points year-on-year and 2.30 percentage points month-on-month [18]. Industry News - The 21st Shanghai International Auto Show commenced on April 23, 2025, featuring nearly 1,000 exhibitors from 26 countries and regions [26]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that retail sales from April 1 to 20, 2025, reached 897,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [29]. - A coalition of six major automotive organizations in the U.S. opposed the imposition of tariffs on imported auto parts, citing potential disruptions to the global supply chain [30]. - Shanghai and Toyota signed a strategic cooperation agreement to establish a research and production company for Lexus electric vehicles and batteries [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on manufacturers enhancing brand competitiveness through intelligent technology, such as BYD and Changan Automobile [50]. - It also highlights the potential growth in the intelligent driving industry chain, recommending companies like Baolong Technology, Huayang Group, and Bertley [50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][50]. Core Viewpoints - The new national standard for power batteries used in electric vehicles will be implemented in July 2026, which is expected to drive the elimination of outdated production capacity [41]. - The demand for lithium batteries is anticipated to maintain rapid growth due to the continuous development of renewable energy and the increasing demand for energy storage from new data centers [46]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to remain strong, supported by the dual drivers of electric vehicles and energy storage [46]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance support in the battery segment, leading companies in the materials segment with improving margins, and segments benefiting from the solid-state battery industry [46]. Market Review - As of April 24, 2025, the lithium battery index increased by 9.16% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.84 percentage points [13]. - The lithium battery index has decreased by 5.64% month-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3 percentage points [13]. - Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has declined by 7.97%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 4.15 percentage points [13]. Price Changes in Lithium Battery Supply Chain - As of April 24, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 70,000 CNY/ton, down 1.82% over the past two weeks [25]. - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 74,400 CNY/ton, down 0.67% [25]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable at 33,300 CNY/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen slight declines of 1.26%, 1.19%, and 1.34% respectively [27]. - The price of electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate is 57,500 CNY/ton, down 2.54% [31]. - The average price of square lithium iron phosphate cells is 0.34 CNY/Wh, and square ternary cells are 0.44 CNY/Wh, both remaining stable [36]. Company Announcements - CATL announced an expansion of its battery swap business, with ten new models set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2025 [41]. - The company also released a new sodium-ion battery, which is expected to be mass-produced by December 2025 [41]. - EVE Energy reported a 37.34% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 12.796 billion CNY [47]. Suggested Focus Companies - CATL (300750) is highlighted for its strong profit growth and market leadership in energy storage batteries [48]. - EVE Energy (300014) is noted for its advancements in large-capacity lithium iron phosphate battery technology [48]. - Keda Industrial (002850) is recognized for its stable growth in precision battery components [48]. - Enjie (002812) is acknowledged for its leadership in lithium battery separators and ongoing development of solid-state products [48]. - Naconor (832522) is mentioned for its innovative equipment for solid-state battery production [48].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [44]. Core Viewpoints - The low-orbit satellite "Qianfan Constellation" has successfully completed five batches of network satellite launches, indicating a steady development in the commercial aerospace manufacturing cluster and a high-quality growth in the satellite communication industry [3][41]. - The communication industry is currently in a phase of technological iteration and policy dividends, with new productive forces such as AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy expected to continuously release growth momentum [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on three main lines of opportunity: "technology commercialization + policy catalysis + performance certainty" for companies in the sector [3][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a cumulative increase of 1.48% from April 11 to April 24, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 primary industries [11][12]. - The sector has experienced a decline of 8.30% in April, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.65 percentage points, and a year-to-date decline of 9.37%, also underperforming the index by 5.54 percentage points [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The Shanghai government aims for the commercial aerospace industry to reach a scale of approximately 100 billion yuan by 2027, with significant manufacturing capabilities for rockets and satellites [16]. - The International Star Alliance is promoting the integration of "embodied intelligent robots + star flash" for industrialization [18]. - The GSMA predicts that mobile technology will contribute $2 trillion to China's economy by 2030, with 5G technology expected to account for 40% of this contribution [20]. 3. Company Announcements - Yiyuan Communication reported a net profit growth of 548.49% year-on-year for 2024, with revenues of 18.594 billion yuan, a 34.14% increase [23]. - Guangxun Technology announced a revenue increase of 36.49% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 8.272 billion yuan [24]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of March 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.07% [26]. - The length of optical cable lines reached approximately 72.88 million kilometers by Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.31% [30]. 5. Communication Sector Weekly View - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Telecom, FiberHome, and Changfei Fiber, which are positioned to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and policy support [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown resilience with a 3.12% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.81 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, 61% of the 184 companies that reported earnings in the basic chemical sector saw year-on-year growth in net profit, with notable performance in modified plastics, phosphorus chemicals, refrigerants, and sweeteners [27] - The report highlights the potential for continued focus on domestic substitution products and price-increasing varieties with favorable supply-demand dynamics amid easing US-China trade tensions [27] Market Review - As of April 24, 2025, the basic chemical industry has experienced a year-to-date decline of 0.1%, but it has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.73 percentage points [10] - The top-performing sub-sectors in the last two weeks include polyester (18.18%), inorganic salts (12.55%), modified plastics (10.14%), carbon fiber (9.9%), and dyeing chemicals (8.13%) [15] - Conversely, the worst-performing sub-sectors include polyurethane (-9.61%), tires (-5.18%), spandex (-2.1%), organic silicon (-1.63%), and rubber products (-1.21%) [16] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with price increases in the past week include polymer MDI (+6.01%), anhydride (+4.60%), propylene glycol (+3.17%), dimethyl carbonate (+3.10%), and adipic acid (+2.84%) [19] - The products with the largest price declines include bromine (-35.51%), liquid chlorine (-7.57%), acrylonitrile (-7.39%), DMF (-6.67%), and carbon black (-6.10%) [23] Industry News - The report notes that the refrigerant sector is expected to maintain high profitability, with contract prices for refrigerants R32 and R410a increasing by 14.77% and 14.42% respectively compared to Q1 [27] - In the sucralose sector, the report indicates a favorable competitive landscape with high industry concentration and minimal impact from tariffs due to its inclusion in the exemption list [28]