北交所策略 光伏产业链技术升级与新场景机会 投 资 投 资 北交所专题报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 分析师：李紫忆 S0340522110001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：liziyi@dgzq.com.cn 策 略 策 略 资料来源：wind，东莞证券研究所 业 研 究 证 业 研 究 证 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性风险；政策出台不及预期；企业业绩不及预期。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 推荐 SAC 执业证书编号： 反内卷政策落地，光伏行业由规模竞争转向效率与结构优化。随着 光伏行业从无序扩产转向产能约束与高质量发展，行业正逐步告别 以价格战为核心的低效竞争模式，进入以效率提升、成本优化和技 术升级为导向的新阶段。主产业链盈利底部逐步显现，行业关注重 点由单纯的装机规模，转向不同技术路线下的降本路径与结构性增 量，产业内部的分化和重构趋势日益清晰。 北证 50 指数走势 高效电池路线并行演进，设备与辅材成为确定性受益环节。当前光 伏电池技术呈现以TOPCon为主体 ...

| 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4157.98 | 0.16% | 6.75 | | | 深证成指 | 14300.08 | -0.30% | -42.82 | | | 沪深 300 | 4753.87 | 0.76% | 35.88 | | | 创业板 | 3304.51 | -0.57% | -19.05 | | | 科创 50 | 1507.64 | -3.03% | -47.16 | | | 北证 50 | 1536.00 | -1.69% | -26.45 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股延续窄幅震荡 市场表现： 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 6.57% | 电子 | ...

深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340124020014 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn | | | --- | --- | | 主要数据 2026 年 1 | 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 31.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 704.92 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2213.94 | | 流通股本（百万股）2213.94 | | | ROE(TTM) | 37.10% | | 12 月最高价（元） | 34.47 | | 12 月最低价（元） | 证 22.79 券 | | 股价走势 | 研 究 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of data and intelligent solutions in the industrial software sector, focusing on digital transformation services for manufacturing and distribution industries. It has a comprehensive product matrix covering key industrial software areas, including PLM, MES, and ERP, with a strong emphasis on AI integration [5][12]. - The company has experienced steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.614 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, up 2.40% year-on-year [21][24]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic industrial software localization due to external pressures, such as U.S. technology restrictions, which have highlighted the urgency for self-sufficiency in industrial software [42][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Provider of Intelligent Solutions - The company has over 40 years of experience and has become a leading provider of intelligent solutions in China, serving over 50,000 clients across various industries, including equipment manufacturing and automotive parts [5][12]. - The company has expanded its operations to regions such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and Thailand, and has developed a robust product offering that integrates AI and cloud computing technologies [12][15]. 2. Acceleration of Domestic Software Localization - The report highlights significant opportunities for domestic industrial software localization, driven by external disruptions and the need for self-sufficiency in critical software areas [32][42]. - The company has developed a complete product matrix with fully controllable source code and core algorithms, addressing the urgent demand for supply chain security and software autonomy in manufacturing [48]. 3. AI-Driven Demand in Industrial Software - The integration of AI into industrial software is accelerating, with the company actively exploring AI applications and launching innovative AI Agent solutions that enhance operational efficiency for clients [3][5]. - The company's AI-related business revenue grew by 125.91% year-on-year as of mid-2025, indicating successful commercialization of AI applications [5][21]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in industrial software localization and the integration of AI technologies, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.63, 0.75, and 0.93 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][21].

买入（维持） 新项目提升竞争力，继续推进规模扩张 宝丰能源（600989）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 28 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | 23.82 | | | | 总市值（亿元） | | 1,746.81 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | | 73.33 | | | | 流通股本(亿股) | | 73.33 | | | | ROE（TTM） | | 23.39% | | | | 12 月最高价(元) | | 24.13 | | | | 12 月最低价(元) | | 13.28 | | | 股价走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 度 研 究 公 司 研 究 证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [3][64]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its actuator business and is actively expanding into new markets, particularly in the six-dimensional force sensor sector. The demand for its main actuator and sensor products is expected to remain strong, leading to anticipated revenue growth [3][59]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Hubei Kait Electronics, was established in 1996 and initially focused on automotive temperature sensors. It has since expanded its product range to include controllers, actuators, and power modules. The company went public on the Beijing Stock Exchange in September 2023, raising 133 million yuan [11][14]. Recent Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 826 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.50%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2020 to 2024 was 31.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 138 million yuan, up 21.24% year-on-year [33][34]. Product Growth - Sales revenue from actuator products increased from 67 million yuan in 2020 to 327 million yuan in 2024, significantly increasing its share of total revenue from 24.03% in 2020 to 44.91% in the first half of 2025. Sensor product sales also grew from 128 million yuan in 2020 to 295 million yuan in 2024 [34][39]. Automotive Market Trends - Global automotive sales have been recovering since 2021, with total sales increasing from 83.64 million units in 2021 to 95.31 million units in 2024. China has become the largest automotive market, accounting for 32.98% of global production in 2024 [4][48]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 184 million yuan, 234 million yuan, and 310 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31, 24, and 18 [3][63].

深 度 研 汽车行业 买入（维持） 中国客车龙头，海外业务量价齐升 宇通客车（600066.SH）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 公 分析师：刘梦麟 行业龙头地位稳固，全品类产品矩阵完善 宇通客车是国内客车行业首 家上市公司，截至2025年，大中型客车销量已连续23年稳居国内第一， 国内市占率超30%。公司产品覆盖公路、公交、校车、机场摆渡及自动 驾驶微循环车等全细分市场，并具备全系列新能源适配能力。 究 研究助理：吴镇杰 财务盈利能力强劲，从规模向效益成功转型 公司业绩呈现"营收稳健、 利润爆发"的特征，2025年前三季度归母净利润同比增长35.4%，显著 高于营收增速，验证了向"效益驱动"转型的成功。受益于海外高毛 利业务占比提升及国内存量置换，公司净利率稳步提升至12.76%的高 水平。 深筑技术护城河，"睿控E平台"领跑智能化 公司拥有全球商用车行 业规模最大、体系最完善的研发团队，持续保持高强度研发投入。依 托自主研发的"睿控E平台"，集 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4151.24, up 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14342.89, up 0.09% [2][4] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%, indicating a mixed performance across different indices [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals, which rose by 5.92%, and oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 3.54% [3][4] - Conversely, sectors such as media and defense industry saw declines, with the media sector down by 1.77% [3][4] Concept Index Performance - The gold concept index led the gains with a rise of 7.54%, while the monkeypox concept index fell by 2.87% [3][4] - Other notable performers include lead and zinc metals, which increased by 6.92% and 6.91% respectively, while the flu concept index dropped by 2.26% [3][4] Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its structural trend, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology growth, new energy, and dividend stocks [4][6] - The total asset of central enterprises is projected to exceed 95 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a profit total of 2.5 trillion yuan, which is expected to support the overall economic development [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][72]. Core Insights - The power equipment industry is entering a new development phase, driven by significant investments in smart grids, renewable energy integration, and digital transformation technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence [6][21]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan by the State Grid Corporation, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at enhancing the new power system's supply chain and achieving carbon peak goals [6][63]. - Global investment in power grids is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated annual investment of $330 billion in 2023, requiring a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% to reach $620 billion by 2030, presenting new opportunities for domestic power equipment companies [6][66]. Summary by Sections 1. New Development Phase of the Power Equipment Industry - The construction of power grids is crucial for the development of the power industry, encompassing substations and power line construction, with a focus on efficient, energy-saving, and environmentally friendly equipment [6][21]. - The transition to a new power system in China emphasizes renewable energy, with significant investments planned for smart grid infrastructure and digitalization [6][63]. 2. Global Power Industry Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a new rapid construction phase for ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, driven by the need for clean energy transmission from western and northern regions to load centers in the east and south [6][45]. - The global power grid investment landscape shows a substantial growth potential, particularly in emerging markets, with a pressing need for modernization and upgrades to accommodate renewable energy sources [6][60]. 3. Investment Strategies and Key Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in technology and scale that are likely to benefit from the global energy transition, including Guodian NARI (600406), XJ Electric (000400), and others [6][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically focusing on the condiment sector [4][75]. Core Insights - The condiment industry in China is experiencing steady market expansion, with the market size projected to grow from 408.1 billion RMB in 2019 to 498.1 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.07% [4][11]. - The competitive landscape of the condiment industry is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" structure, with Haitian Flavor Industry leading the market. The market concentration is expected to increase as the industry evolves towards more complex, convenient, and healthier products [4][24][29]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the potential for growth in the condiment sector driven by recovery in the restaurant industry, increased chain restaurant rates, and a growing demand for health-oriented products among consumers [4][75]. Summary by Sections Market Growth - The condiment market in China is projected to grow steadily, with a market size increase from 408.1 billion RMB in 2019 to 498.1 billion RMB by 2024, achieving a CAGR of 4.07% [4][11]. - The growth of compound condiments is outpacing that of the overall condiment industry, with a CAGR of 8.12% from 85.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 126.6 billion RMB in 2024 [4][17]. Competitive Landscape - The condiment industry is dominated by a few key players, with Haitian Flavor Industry being the largest, generating over 20 billion RMB in revenue, while the overall market remains relatively fragmented [4][24][25]. - The market concentration in China is lower than in the US and Japan, indicating potential for increased market share for leading companies as the industry evolves [4][26][29]. Demand Drivers - The consumption structure is primarily driven by the restaurant sector, which accounts for approximately 49% of the market, with household and food processing making up 34% and 17%, respectively [4][32]. - Factors such as the recovery of the restaurant sector, rising chain restaurant rates, and the growth of the takeout market are expected to boost demand for condiments [4][39][53]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing consumer preference for health-oriented products, with 90.8% of consumers expressing demand for zero-additive condiments and significant interest in low-sugar and low-salt options [4][56][59]. - Changes in population structure, including an increase in single-person households and an aging population, are driving the demand for smaller, more diverse condiment products [4][62][67]. Raw Material Analysis - The primary raw materials for condiment production include soybeans, sugar, and packaging materials, with soybeans accounting for approximately 17.6% of procurement costs [4][68]. - The report indicates that raw material prices are expected to remain manageable, with current prices for soybeans and other materials showing some fluctuations [4][71]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage sector, highlighting key companies such as Haitian Flavor Industry (603288), Zhongju High-tech (600872), and Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) as potential investment targets [4][75].