超配（维持） 消费者服务行业 高端零售率先复苏，免税景气向好 免税行业深度报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 中信消费者服务指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 压制中国免税行业崛起的主要因素均被扭转，布局中国免税拐 点。复盘2020年后免税行业的走势，实际上免税走弱是受到了 多重因素的影响。一是疫情期间日韩等国采取了高额返佣的模 式导致竞争压力增加，而国内免税商同样加大了折扣力度导致 利润下降。二是国内居民家庭收入预期出现了阶段性的波动， 暂时影响了消费意愿，导致居民家庭"有钱不敢花"。三是供 给的稀缺，过去中国免税店以海南离岛免税和口岸免税为主， 离岛免税场景过去存在"离岛不离境"的限制，服务的游客数 量 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with all three major indices closing in the green, indicating a rebound after a period of decline [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.90, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to 14329.91 [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics (up 2.27%), Communications (up 2.15%), and National Defense & Military Industry (up 1.65%) [2] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Coal (down 2.27%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (down 1.95%), and Steel (down 1.34%) [2] Concept Index Performance - Notable concept indices included Cultivated Diamonds (up 3.31%), Automotive Chips (up 3.26%), and National Fund Holdings (up 3.18%) [2] - On the downside, indices such as Animal Vaccines (down 2.76%) and Avian Influenza (down 2.03%) performed poorly [2] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue its spring rally, primarily driven by structural trends rather than a broad market surge [5] - It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology-driven sectors, and domestic demand expansion [5] Industrial Profit Data - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 739.82 billion, a 0.6% increase from the previous year [4] - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 205.61 billion, down 3.9%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 4.2% to 174.47 billion [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that geopolitical events have impacted market sentiment, leading to a general decline in equity markets globally, while safe-haven assets like COMEX gold have shown strength, surpassing $5000 per ounce as of January 26, 2026 [10][11] - In the domestic market, the bond market has shown signs of recovery, while the equity market is experiencing a "rational cooling" trend, with broad index performance diverging [10][11] - All types of ETFs, except for cross-border ETFs, recorded positive average weekly returns, with commodity ETFs, stock ETFs, and bond ETFs rising by 6.82%, 1.37%, and 0.25% respectively [10][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that significant capital outflows are occurring in broad-based ETFs, with a net outflow of 333.06 billion yuan this week, particularly from ETFs tracking the CSI 300, which saw a net outflow of 237.34 billion yuan [11][12] - Conversely, thematic ETFs, particularly in sectors like fine chemicals, electric grid equipment, and semiconductors, continue to attract capital, with the fine chemicals index ETF seeing a net inflow of 17.27 billion yuan year-to-date, the highest among all thematic indices [18][19] Group 3 - The report notes that convertible bond ETFs have seen an average weekly increase of 2.64%, with the sentiment in the bond market significantly improving, particularly for interest rate bonds, which outperformed credit bonds [20][21] - However, credit bond ETFs experienced substantial net outflows exceeding 10 billion yuan this week, likely due to capital returning after the end-of-year rush for Sci-Tech bond ETFs [20][22] Group 4 - The analysis of leveraged financing indicates a slight increase in leverage across ETFs, with significant net buy amounts concentrated in indices related to electric grid equipment, gold, and satellite industries [24][25] - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the electric grid equipment sector, driven by a projected 40% increase in fixed asset investment by the State Grid during the 2026-2030 period [24][25]

Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintain) for the copper-clad laminate industry [1] Core Insights - Increased demand for high-end copper foil and electronic cloth driven by AI applications, with domestic companies expected to benefit from breakthroughs [1] - The report highlights the anticipated rise in demand for M8.5+ materials and the potential for higher-end M9 materials in the Rubin platform products [20] - Supply tightness in HVLP4 copper foil is expected to lead to an increase in processing fees, with significant market demand projected [32][48] - The demand for LowDK second-generation cloth and Q cloth is expected to grow, driven by advancements in AI computing products [56] Summary by Sections AI and Copper-Clad Laminate - AI computing hardware is raising the performance requirements for copper-clad laminates, with M8.5+ demand expected to increase [12] - The dielectric constant (Dk) and dielectric loss (Df) are critical for the electrical performance of copper-clad laminates, influencing signal transmission speed and energy loss [15] Electronic Copper Foil - The global electronic circuit copper foil capacity is projected to reach approximately 990,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 41% of total copper foil capacity [32] - HVLP4 copper foil is becoming a core material for AI copper-clad laminates due to its lower surface roughness, which enhances signal transmission stability [43] - The production process for HVLP is more stringent than conventional copper foil, leading to higher production costs and potential price increases [48] Electronic Cloth - LowDK electronic cloth is gaining traction, with demand for second-generation cloth and Q cloth expected to rise due to their superior electrical properties [56] - The report notes that high-end electronic cloth products have strong profitability, with significant margins reported by leading companies [65] - Domestic companies are actively developing and validating LowDK and Q cloth technologies, with successful market entries reported [69]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that advanced packaging is crucial for enhancing chip performance and reliability, especially in the context of the AI wave driving demand for higher integration and performance in semiconductors [8][21][25] - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 438.98 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28][29] - Advanced packaging is anticipated to account for 50% of the semiconductor packaging market by 2029, with a CAGR of 10.6%, outpacing traditional packaging growth [28][29] Group 2 - The report highlights the rise of independent third-party testing services in the semiconductor industry, driven by the increasing number of IC design companies and the growing demand for testing services [42][43] - The competitive landscape for wafer testing is relatively concentrated due to high technical and investment barriers, with fewer participants compared to finished chip testing [42][43] - The report notes that independent third-party testing firms often collaborate with integrated packaging and testing companies, outsourcing wafer testing while also competing in finished chip testing [42][43]

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 26 日 星期一 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数集体收涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4136.16 | 0.33% | 13.59 | | | 深证成指 | 14439.66 | 0.79% | 112.61 | | | 沪深 300 | 4702.50 | -0.45% | -21.21 | | | 创业板 | 3349.50 | 0.63% | 20.86 | | | 科创 50 | 1553.71 | 0.78% | 12.07 | | | 北证 50 | 1588.66 | 3.82% | 58.42 | | | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | 3.50% | 通信 | -1.5 ...

2026 年 1 月 23 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/01/09-2026/01/22） 行 业 日系 Resonac 上调覆铜板产品价格 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 | 一、行情回顾及估值 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、产业新闻 | | 5 | | 三、公司公告 | | 5 | | 四、行业数据 | | 6 | | 五、周观点 | | 6 | | 六、风险提示 | | 7 | | 图 | 1 | ：申万电子板块近 | 10 | 年 | PE | TTM（剔除负值）（截至 2026/1/22） | 4 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to grow by over 80% year-on-year in 2025, with significant contributions from both the automotive and energy storage sectors [40]. - The lithium battery index has seen a decline of 5.75% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.46 percentage points [12]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the lithium battery market, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and supportive government policies [43]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 22, 2026, the lithium battery index has decreased by 4.84% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 6.87 percentage points [12]. - The report notes a recent upward trend in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices, with increases of 19.84% and 17.19% respectively over the past two weeks [24][5]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 166,100 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) was priced at 160,200 CNY/ton as of January 22, 2026 [24]. - Positive price movements were observed in cathode materials, with lithium iron phosphate and NCM materials seeing increases of 16.60% and 12.35% respectively [27][22]. Industry News - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 144.7 GW, marking an 85% increase year-on-year [40]. - The global lithium battery production is projected to reach 3,092 GWh in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [40]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Penghui Energy and Defu Technology have reported significant expected profit increases for 2025, indicating a positive trend in the industry [42]. - CATL has introduced a new sodium battery solution, showcasing innovation in the battery technology space [40]. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes that while the demand for power batteries may weaken in the short term due to seasonal factors, the energy storage market continues to grow rapidly, supported by favorable policies [43].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the financing leverage is being actively adjusted, with the insurance preset interest rate stabilizing. The recent increase in margin requirements from 80% to 100% aims to promote long-term healthy development in the current market environment [2][47]. - The report indicates that the average margin balance has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan in recent trading days, reflecting an accelerated pace of leveraged funds entering the market [2][47]. - The insurance preset interest rate research value for Q4 2025 is 1.89%, with a buffer of 14 basis points before triggering a downward adjustment [3][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 22, 2026, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have experienced declines of -5.20%, -2.43%, and -7.46%, respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -0.29% [11]. - Among the sub-sectors, Changshu Bank (+4.14%), Pacific Securities (+3.35%), and China Life (-4.29%) showed the best performance [11]. Valuation Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.70, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.75, 0.57, 0.69, and 0.61, respectively [21]. - The securities sector's PB valuation is 1.47, indicating potential for valuation recovery [25]. Recent Market Indicators - The 1-year MLF operation rate is 2.0%, with the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [30]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares is 26,971.78 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 21.33% compared to the previous week [36]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points to enhance the effectiveness of structural monetary policy tools [42]. - The China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting discussing the preset interest rates for life insurance products, confirming the current research value at 1.89% [42]. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include Ningbo Bank reporting a revenue of 71.968 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.01% [45]. - China Pacific Insurance reported a premium income of 258.115 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting an 8.1% growth [45]. Weekly Perspectives - The banking sector is advised to focus on regional banks with strong performance certainty, such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Changshu Bank [46]. - The securities sector is recommended to pay attention to firms with restructuring expectations, including Zheshang Securities and Guolian Minsheng [47]. - The insurance sector should focus on companies with leading premium growth, such as China Pacific Insurance and China Life [48].

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周指数震荡走强，沪指企稳 4100 点。从周 K 线来看，上证指 数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，创业板指下跌 0.34%，科创 50 指数上涨 2.62%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.60%。个股板块涨多跌少，建 筑材料、石油石化、钢铁和基础化工等板块涨幅靠前，医药生物、 食品饮料、非银金融、通信和银行等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固，春季行情有望延续 从本周市场来看： ◆风险提示： 海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外 需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高 利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收 缩引发风险事件，对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。 | 市场近一周走势 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 周收盘(点) | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | | 4136.16 | 0.84% | | 深证成指 | | 14439.66 | 1.11% | | 创业板 | | 3349.5 ...