市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上上周五，A 股震荡下跌，截至收盘，上证指数收跌 1.26%，报 4082.07 点，深证成指跌 1.28%，创业板指跌 1.57%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.98 万亿元人民币，超 3600 股下跌。申万行业方面，综合、国防军 工行业领涨，有色金属行业领跌；概念板块方面，数字水印、网约车 概念涨幅居前。周一，港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘涨 2.53%，恒生 科技指数涨 3.34%。美国三大股指全线下跌，道指跌 1.66%，标普 500 指数跌 1.04%，纳指跌 1.13%。欧洲股市涨跌不一，亚太股市涨跌互 现。 【重要新闻】 【美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府相关关税违 法】美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》对相关贸易伙伴加征的对等关税、芬太尼关税等 相关关税违法。我国商务部对此回应表示，正在对相关内容和影响进 行全面评估。中方敦促美方取消对贸易 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of AI computing power and the importance of autonomous control in the electronic industry, suggesting a diversified investment approach [6][10]. Market Review - On Thursday, the A-share market showed slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 4,134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.32%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.14 trillion RMB, with nearly 2,000 stocks rising. The comprehensive and electronic sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [8][10]. Important News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to deepen the deployment of the "AI+" initiative, emphasizing the need for state-owned enterprises to enhance their sense of responsibility and urgency in developing the AI industry. The meeting focused on promoting independent innovation, strengthening investment, and fostering a collaborative ecosystem for AI development [9][10]. Investment Strategy - The electronic industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in 2025, with improved profitability. The report recommends capitalizing on investment opportunities in AI computing power construction and terminal innovation. Key areas of focus include high-demand segments such as storage and PCB, which are experiencing a boom due to increased capital expenditure [10][11]. AI Computing Power Construction - The report indicates that the demand for key hardware in AI computing is robust, particularly in the PCB and storage sectors. The PCB industry is expected to benefit from the upgrade of AIPCB technology, with domestic manufacturers accelerating capital expenditure to expand high-end PCB production capacity. The storage market is also poised for growth, driven by AI, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix adjusting their production plans to optimize supply and demand [11][12]. AI Terminal Innovation - The report notes that AI-enabled devices such as smartphones, AIPC, and AI glasses are increasingly penetrating the traditional consumer electronics market. Major brands like Apple and Meta are actively developing AI products, which are expected to drive market growth and enhance demand across the supply chain [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the storage and PCB sectors that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing boom in AI computing power. It also highlights the potential of AI smartphones and other innovative terminals to drive growth in the consumer electronics market, recommending attention to leading manufacturers and their new product launches [13][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in 2025, with a valuation slightly above historical averages. The first three quarters of 2025 show improved performance and profitability. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI computing infrastructure and terminal innovation for 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Overview - The electronic industry achieved a 47.88% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 30.21 percentage points [15]. - The industry's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached CNY 29,756.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46%, with a net profit of CNY 1,477.90 billion, up 37.79% [20][23]. 2. AI Computing Infrastructure - The demand for AI computing hardware is robust, particularly in the PCB and storage sectors. The PCB industry is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure and demand for high-end products like HDI and multi-layer boards [3][43]. - The storage chip market is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with major players adjusting production to optimize supply and demand dynamics, leading to price increases [3][43]. 3. Terminal Innovation - AI-enabled smartphones and PCs are projected to see increased market penetration, with significant growth potential in AI mobile devices and AIPC [4][43]. - AI glasses are expected to contribute to market growth, with a steady increase in shipments and a fully covered supply chain in China [4][43]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the storage and PCB sectors that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI wave and capital expenditure increases. It also highlights the potential of leading manufacturers in AI mobile devices and AI glasses [8][43].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The SW Electronics sector's fund heavy positions and overweight ratios have increased year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter, indicating a high level of interest despite recent declines [1][11]. - The focus for Q4 2025 is on AI computing power and semiconductor self-sufficiency, with key stocks including Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and SMIC leading the way [2][22]. - The semiconductor and components sectors are currently overweight, while consumer electronics have shifted to an underweight position [3][31]. Summary by Sections Fund Heavy Positions and Overweight Ratios - In Q4 2025, the SW Electronics sector's allocation ratio is 11.90%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.52 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3.05 percentage points. The fund heavy position ratio is 20.22%, down 1.92 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 3.28 percentage points year-on-year. The overweight ratio stands at 8.32%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.39 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 0.23 percentage points [1][11][13]. Top Heavy Positions - The top ten stocks in the SW Electronics sector for Q4 2025 include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, Luxshare Precision, and others, with semiconductor stocks making up 70% of the list. The performance of these stocks has varied, with only 40% showing gains in the quarter [2][16][22]. Focus Areas - The investment focus remains on AI computing and storage, with significant interest in companies like Cambricon and Dongshan Precision, which are leaders in their respective fields. The semiconductor self-sufficiency trend is also highlighted, with companies like Tuojing Technology and Hu Silicon Industry benefiting from domestic equipment adoption [2][22]. Subsector Allocation - The semiconductor sector is still a key focus for institutional investors, with an overweight ratio of 7.74%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.76 percentage points. The components sector has seen a slight increase in its overweight ratio to 1.75%. In contrast, consumer electronics have shifted from overweight to underweight, now at 0.45% [3][31]. Concentration of Fund Heavy Positions - The concentration of the top five fund heavy positions in the SW Electronics sector has decreased, with their market value accounting for 35.52% of the total fund heavy positions, down 0.84 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This trend indicates a diversification in fund allocations [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing and semiconductor self-sufficiency as key investment opportunities. It recommends monitoring the performance of PCB and storage sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing [4][37].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a narrow consolidation with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4,131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [2][9] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.98 trillion RMB, with nearly 2,000 stocks rising [2][9] - In terms of industry performance, the construction materials and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the telecommunications sector lagged behind [2][9] Economic Indicators - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban prices rising by 0.2% and rural prices by 0.1% [3][11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month, it increased by 0.4% [4][11] Earnings Forecasts - As of February 9, 2026, 2,976 A-share companies had disclosed their annual earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 54.32%. Among these, 1,106 companies (37.16%) issued positive earnings forecasts [12][15] - The stable sector had the highest proportion of positive forecasts at 57.58%, followed by the cyclical sector at 42.55%, while the consumer sector had the lowest at 30.81% [12][15] - Five industries had a positive forecast rate exceeding 50%, with notable improvements in the defense, automotive, and beauty care sectors [13][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving profit growth, including upstream non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, midstream machinery and electrical industries, and TMT sectors [15] - The overall profitability of A-share companies is expected to continue recovering, with the highest positive forecast rates in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and automotive industries [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the profitability of A-shares is expected to continue its recovery, with a notable increase in the number of companies issuing positive earnings forecasts for 2025 [3][4] - As of February 9, 2026, 2,976 A-share companies have disclosed their annual earnings forecasts, representing a disclosure rate of 54.32% [8][10] - Among the disclosed forecasts, 1,106 companies (37.16%) issued positive earnings forecasts, with the largest segment being those predicting earnings growth, totaling 625 companies (21.00%) [12][21] Group 2 - The stable sector has the highest proportion of positive forecasts at 57.58%, followed by the cyclical sector at 42.55%, and the financial sector at 42.27% [13][19] - Five industries have a positive forecast rate exceeding 50%, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and the automotive industry leading in expected profit growth [16][21] - The report highlights significant performance disparities among industries, with defense, automotive, and beauty care sectors turning losses into profits, while energy-related sectors like oil and coal show negative growth [21][24] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with improving profitability, particularly in non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, machinery, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [24] - The report emphasizes that technological innovation and industrial upgrades are key drivers for the recovery in profitability, suggesting a strategic focus on high-end manufacturing and technological innovation sectors [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The effects of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025 are gradually becoming evident, with the total financial volume maintaining rapid growth. By the end of the year, the social financing scale stock and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.3% and 8.5% year-on-year, significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The growth of RMB loans, after adjusting for local government debt impacts, is around 7%, with strong credit support continuing [2]. - The comprehensive financing cost in society has further declined, with new corporate loan rates and personal housing loan rates around 3.1% in December. The credit structure continues to optimize, with year-end growth rates for technology loans, green loans, inclusive loans, elderly care industry loans, and digital economy industry loans at 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, 50.5%, and 14.1% respectively, all maintaining double-digit growth, consistently exceeding the overall loan growth rate [2]. - Financial institutions' asset management products have accelerated growth since Q2 2025, with total asset management balance reaching 120 trillion yuan by the end of October, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. The new assets of asset management products are primarily directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, altering the structure of bank deposits [3]. - The central bank's decision to lower the rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points reflects a focus on maintaining moderate overall liquidity while emphasizing structural adjustments. It is anticipated that the overall revenue and net profit growth rate of listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and the first half of 2026, with strong risk compensation capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Financing - The central bank's report indicates a continued implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, supporting government bond issuance and enhancing financial institutions' risk appetite through measures like "re-lending + fiscal subsidies" [2]. Asset Management Growth - The asset management product scale has reached its highest growth rate since the implementation of new regulations, with a total asset balance increase of 13.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a shift in bank deposit structures [3]. Investment Strategy - Long-term funds are expected to continue allocating towards the banking sector due to attractive dividend yields, which will help solidify the valuation floor for the sector [3].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a narrow consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13% to 4,128.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.11 trillion RMB, with over 2,100 stocks rising. The media sector led the gains, while the real estate sector lagged [2][8] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.58%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.62% [2][8] - The U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.1%, the S&P 500 down by 0.33%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.59% [2][8] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued an implementation opinion on strengthening the capacity building of the information and communication industry to support low-altitude infrastructure development. The goal is to achieve a ground mobile communication network coverage rate of no less than 90% for low-altitude public air routes by 2027 [3][9] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments released an implementation opinion on accelerating the application of artificial intelligence in the bidding and tendering field. By the end of 2026, key scenarios such as bid document detection and intelligent evaluation assistance are expected to achieve full coverage in some provinces and cities [4][10] Film Industry Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival film season is expected to feature six highly anticipated films, including "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening," among others [11] - The 2025 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.514 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.36%, driven by strong performances from major films [12] - The box office forecast for the 2026 Spring Festival period predicts the top three films to be "Fast Life 3," "Silent Awakening," and "The Courier: Winds Rise in the Desert," with expected revenues of approximately 3.45 billion, 1.845 billion, and 1.47 billion RMB, respectively, leading to a total box office of around 9.298 billion RMB [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of a relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the market over the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.36%, driven by strong performances from leading films [2][10]. - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature six highly anticipated films, including sequels and new titles, indicating a diverse supply of film types that could stimulate market demand [3][16]. - The box office forecast for the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to reach approximately 9.298 billion yuan, with the top three films projected to be "Flying Life 3," "Silent Awakening," and "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert," with expected revenues of 3.450 billion, 1.845 billion, and 1.470 billion yuan respectively [21][24]. Summary by Sections Overall Box Office Review - The 2025 Spring Festival box office set a new historical record, with leading films contributing significantly to the total revenue, showcasing a high concentration of box office performance among top films [2][10]. - The audience's enthusiasm for viewing has surged, with attendance rising to 187 million, contributing to the box office growth alongside a slight increase in average ticket prices [11]. Internal Structure - The 2026 Spring Festival will showcase a mix of IP sequels and new films, with the quality and audience reception of the films being crucial for box office success [3][21]. - Pre-sale data indicates that "Flying Life 3" leads with a pre-sale box office of 13.672 million yuan, followed by "Silent Awakening" and "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert" [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - The diverse supply of films for the 2026 Spring Festival provides a solid foundation for the market, with overall box office performance expected to be stable, contingent on film quality and audience reception [4][25]. - It is recommended to focus on high-quality film production companies, distributors, and leading cinema chains [4][25].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41% to close at 4,123.09 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.17% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached approximately 2.25 trillion RMB, with over 4,300 stocks experiencing gains [2][8] - The communication, comprehensive, and media sectors led the industry performance, while the Sora concept (text-to-video), short drama games, and AI corpus concepts saw notable increases in their respective segments [2][8] Important News - On February 9, during his first inspection of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, highlighting the need to address key shortcomings and achieve strategic goals [3][9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, aimed at better supporting quality listed companies and enhancing the flexibility and convenience of refinancing processes [3][9] Industry Analysis - In Q4 2025, the SW Media Industry Index decreased by 4.92%, with a slight reduction in capital activity, although it remained at a high level [10] - The fund allocation in the media sector shifted to an underweight position, while the gaming sector continued to attract market attention, maintaining an overweight status with an increase of 3.59 percentage points to 40.26% [10][11] - The top ten holdings in the media sector were predominantly gaming companies, with eight out of ten stocks being from the gaming industry. However, most of these stocks experienced price declines in Q4 2025, with notable drops of 24.58% and 22.12% for Jiubang Network and Kaiying Network, respectively [11][12] Fund Concentration - The concentration of fund holdings in the media sector showed a decrease, with the top five, ten, and twenty holdings accounting for 68.74%, 85.72%, and 97.33% of the total fund holdings, respectively, reflecting a decline from Q3 2025 [13] - Despite the overall industry index decline and reduced trading activity, the gaming sector's leading companies remain a focal point for institutional investors, suggesting a continued interest in firms with robust game license reserves and AI application strategies [13]