[Table_Title] 业绩表现分化，预盈率过半 [Table_ReportType] ——农林牧渔行业 2025 年业绩预告综述[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点 Table_Summary] ： 截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，农林牧渔板块共 79 家上市公司发布 2025 年 业绩预告，行业披露率为 69%。利润表现分化，行业预盈率为 57%，预 增与预亏公司占比各有提升。从二级子行业来看，除林业与饲料板块表 现不佳外，其余板块业绩表现良好，其中种植业及动物保健板块预盈率 高企，养殖业公司在猪价下行周期加速分化，农产品加工及渔业业绩保 持稳健。当前生猪养殖产业去产能有望加速，建议关注具备成本优势的 生猪养殖龙头。 投资要点： 业绩多数披露，利润表现分化：截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，农林牧渔行业 共计 114 家 A 股公司，已有 79 家发布业绩预告，行业披露率为 69%， 在消费八大行业中排名居首。在所有已发布业绩预告的公司中，2025 年 农林牧渔行业预计盈利的公司数量为 45 家，行业预盈率 57%，在消费 八大行业中排行第四。分具体业绩预告类型来看，行业业绩 ...

策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Title] A 股迎来春节行情，资金表现活跃 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | | | 分析师: [Table_Authors] | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | 3071 ⚫ 2 月 A 股主要股指涨跌互现：截至 2 月 25 日收盘，上证综 指收报 4,147.23 点，较 1 月末上涨 0.71%。分结构看，本 月 A 股主要股指涨跌互现。其中，中证 500、沪深 300 指数 涨幅较大。 ⚫ 本月市场流动性较为平稳：截至 2 月 25 日，因假期影响， 本月 A 股市场新成立的偏股型基金份额回落，全市场日均 成交额环比下降，但重要股东净减持规模下降，A 股限售解 禁规模下降。总体而言，2 月 A 股市场流动性较为平稳。证 监会主席吴清表示，证监会将高质量编制和实施好资本市 场"十五五"规划，全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头，以更 大力度培育耐心资本和推动中长 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 纺织服饰：行业整体盈利状况边际改善，纺织制造板块预盈率较高 传媒：2026 年春节档票房回落，档期内马太效应加剧 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] | 国内市场表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01% | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19% | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19% | | 科创 50 | 1,485.86 | 0.85% | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29% | | 上证 50 | 3,035.07 | -0.65% | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16% | | 上证基金 | 7,226.58 | -0.33% | | 3071 国债指数 | 225.82 | -0.04% | 【市场回顾】周四 ...

证券研究报告|纺织服饰 [Table_Title] 行业整体盈利状况边际改善，纺织制造板块 预盈率较高 [Table_ReportType] ——纺织服饰行业 2025 年业绩预告综述[Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 纺服行业盈利状况边际改善，2025年预盈率60%。截至2026年2月13日， 纺织服饰行业共计107家A股公司，已有55家发布业绩预告，行业披露率 为51%，在消费八大行业中位列第3。在所有已发布业绩预告的公司中， 2025年纺织服饰行业预计盈利的公司数量为33家，行业预盈率60%，在 消费八大行业中排行第3。分具体业绩预告类型来看，2025年纺织服饰 行业亏损上市公司占比为40%，同比下降19个pct，其中，续亏的上市公 司占比由2024年的30%小幅上升至33%，但首次亏损的公司占比由28%大 幅下降至7%。此外，扭亏为盈的公司占比由4%大幅上升至20%，业绩预 增的公司占比由15%上升至22%，行业整体盈利状况呈现边际改善态势。 各子板块亏损上市公司占比均有所下滑，纺织制造板块预盈率较高。 从披露率来看：饰品板块披露率最高，为73%，服装家纺 ...

⚫ 春节档供给端持续加码，需求端表现疲软。2026年档期总场次达435.1 万场，创历史新高，供给端持续加码；但观影人次同比大幅回落至 1.2 亿，较 2025 年的 1.9 亿显著下滑，需求端疲软特征凸显；平均票价 降至 47.8 元，为近六年最低，票价让利未能有效提振观影需求；档期 整体上座率仅为 22.2%，远低于近年同期水平，新增场次未有效转化 为票房，市场出现"供过于求"的结构性失衡，整体表现不及预期。 ⚫ 档期马太效应加剧，《飞驰人生 3》断层式领跑。2026 年春节档打破 了自 2018 年以来延续的"多雄争霸"的市场结构，呈现出极致分化 态势，马太效应显著加剧，这一格局的核心背景在于当前电影行业正 处于阶段性片荒周期，新片储备不足，2026 年春节档上映影片整体竞 争力显著弱于往年，头部影片也有所匮乏。从梯队表现看，《飞驰人 生 3》以 29.3 亿元，超 50%的票房贡献度形成断层式领跑，成为档期 内第一梯队；第二梯队的中部影片表现明显偏弱，票房成绩不及往年 同期的中部阵营水准，《惊蛰无声》与《镖人：风起大漠》竞争胶着 但均未突破 10 亿票房，《熊出没·年年有熊》则回归系列平均水平。 从影 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

旅游市场高位运行，消费潜力有效释放 [Table_ReportType] ——旅游行业 2026 年春节黄金周数据快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 2 月 24 日，文旅部公布 2026 年春节黄金周旅游数据。经文旅部数 据中心测算，春节假日 9 天，全国国内出游 5.96 亿人次，国内出 游总花费 8034.83 亿元，人均花费 1348.13 元，与去年假期基本持 平。 投资要点： 超长假期推动多段出行，旅游市场百花齐放。今年春节假期是首个 为期 9 天的超长假期，旅客出游呈现出显著的分段式与错峰特征。 根据广之旅发布的报告，假期前后旅游市场呈现多层次并行趋势： 节前出境长线游率先启动，临近假期出境短线游升温，假期初期国 内游集中释放，假期尾段周边游形成补位高峰。各类旅游产品多点 开花，推动整体出行市场保持较高景气度。国内游方面，假期日均 出游 6622.22 万人次，较去年假期增长 5.74%；日均花费 892.76 亿元，较去年假期增长 5.50%，在国内游高位运行背景下保持平稳 增长。跨境游方面，出入境客流增速持续提升，春节假期共计 1779.6 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].