策略研究|策略月报 政治局会议强调持续稳定和活跃资本市场 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 4 月策略月报 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | 分析师: [Table_Authors] | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 科技、医药、消费板块基金关注度较高 一季度我国经济实现良好开局 政策多措并举维护资本市场平稳运行 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 月 报 策 略 研 究 3265 ⚫ 4 月 A 股主要指数先抑后扬：4 月初受美国对等关税政策影 响，A 股主要指数下跌，其后我国宣布一系列政策利好，带 动市场信心回暖，A 股主要指数逐步回升。截至 4 月 25 日 收盘，上证综指收报 3,295.06 点，较 3 月末下跌 1.22%。 分结构看，本月 A 股主要股指下跌。其中，创业板指跌幅 ...

[Table_Summary] 事件: 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实 现营收 24.17 亿元（同比+25.49%），归母净利润 10.49 亿元，扣非归母 净利润 10.32 亿元，扭亏为盈。2025 年一季度，公司实现营收 5.61 亿 元（同比+0.26%），归母净利润 2.46 亿元（同比-2.18%），扣非归母净 利润 2.40 亿元（同比-3.88%）。 新项目驱动增长，轻资产业务亮眼 [Table_StockName] ——宋城演艺（300144）2024Q4&2025Q1 业绩点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 投资要点: 新项目持续爬坡，轻资产业务贡献增量。现场演艺项目中，新项目表现 更加出色，2024 年新开业景区广东千古情录得收入 2.56 亿元，占营收 比重超 10% ； 西 安 千 古 情 与 上 海 千 古 情 营 收 分 别 同 比 增 长 178.02%/18.25%。杭州宋城旅游区仍为营收占比最大的景区，2024 年 实现收入 6.37 亿元，同比-2.71%。轻资产业务表现出色，2024 年实现 收入 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a collective decline in the A-share market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% to 3286.65 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index also down by 0.05% [1][6] - The report notes a significant increase in the inbound tourism market in China, with an expected daily average of 2.15 million inbound and outbound travelers during the upcoming "May Day" holiday, representing a year-on-year growth of 27% [2][7] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物), with a 33.44% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 31.69% [8][12] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 1.02 trillion yuan, with sectors such as beauty care, machinery, and media leading the gains, while public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors lagged [1][6] - The report indicates that the online sales channel for Marubi achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.77%, accounting for 85.61% of total revenue [9][12] Company Analysis - Marubi's main brand generated 2.06 billion yuan in revenue, representing a 31.69% increase, while its second brand, PL, achieved 905 million yuan, up 40.72% [9][12] - The gross margin for Marubi improved to 73.70% in 2024 and 76.05% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points and 1.45 percentage points, respectively [10][12] - The company is transitioning from a traditional cosmetics firm to a biotechnology cosmetics company, focusing on key technologies and core raw material research, particularly in recombinant collagen technology [11][12] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts profit forecasts for Marubi, estimating net profits of 411 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 537 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.40%, 15.75%, and 12.69% respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue growth, achieving an operating income of 2.97 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 342 million yuan, up 31.69% year-on-year [1][11] - The online channel revenue continues to grow rapidly, with online sales reaching 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, a 35.77% increase year-on-year, accounting for 85.61% of total revenue [2] - The company is transitioning from a traditional cosmetics enterprise to a biotechnology cosmetics company, focusing on key technologies and core raw material research and development [10][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 2.97 billion yuan and a net profit of 342 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin [1][3] - The gross profit margin improved to 73.70% in 2024, up 3.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.53%, down 0.94 percentage points [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - The main brand, Marubi, generated 2.06 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 69.24% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 31.69% [2] - The second brand, PL Lianhuo, achieved 905 million yuan in revenue, a 40.72% increase year-on-year [2] Market Strategy - The company is deepening its focus on major product strategies, particularly in eye care and wrinkle reduction, maintaining its leading position in the eye care category for three consecutive years [2][10] - The company has launched several innovative products, including the upgraded peptide eye cream and collagen essence, which have seen significant sales growth [2][10] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of 411 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 537 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.40%, 15.75%, and 12.69% [11][12] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 1.03 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.34 yuan [11][14]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.65% [1][6] - The total transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.06 trillion yuan, with the banking and steel sectors leading gains, while real estate, social services, and automotive sectors lagged [1][6] - The report highlights the government's upcoming measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including support for enterprises to maintain employment and enhance vocational training [7] Market Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total scale of the wealth management market reached 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.41% [13][16] - The report indicates that the risk appetite in the wealth management sector remains low, with fixed-income products dominating the market [14][16] - The performance of various fund types showed mixed results, with QDII funds leading with a return of 3.93% [9][10] Company-Specific Insights - The report on Runben Co., Ltd. indicates a significant revenue increase of 27.61% year-on-year, reaching 1.318 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit growth of 32.80% [17][18] - The company launched over 90 new products in 2024, focusing on mosquito repellent and baby care products, which contributed to its revenue growth [19][20] - The report on Wuliangye shows a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.44% [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the technology, pharmaceutical, and consumer sectors are receiving high attention from funds, with significant allocations towards electronic and food & beverage industries [8][10] - The investment outlook for Runben Co., Ltd. remains positive, with expected EPS for 2025 adjusted to 0.93 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [20] - Wuliangye's investment value is highlighted due to its strong brand and increased dividend payout ratio, with a projected net profit growth of 5.50% for 2025 [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months compared to the market index [5][10][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight miss on earnings expectations, with a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, which aligns with its shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, increasing the cash dividend ratio to 70% compared to 2023 [2][10]. - The report highlights a decline in the growth rate of liquor sales, with the core product's sales volume increasing by 7.06% in 2024, while other products saw a minimal growth of 0.12%. The gross margin for the main product improved to 87.72% [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 77.06%, with sales expenses exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, leading to a sales expense ratio increase to 11.99%. The net profit margin was recorded at 37.22%, a slight decline of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4][10]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with expected net profits of 33.606 billion yuan in 2025, 35.892 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.554 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 5.50%, 6.80%, and 7.42% respectively [5][10]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 8.21 yuan in 2024 to 9.93 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 15.73 to 12.99 over the same period [5][10].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall net value of public funds in China decreased to 31.55 trillion yuan as of March 31, 2025, with stock and mixed funds net values at 4.03 trillion yuan and 3.22 trillion yuan, respectively, showing increases of 0.51% and 1.22% compared to the end of 2024 [4][8] - The report highlights that the performance of various types of public funds varied, with an overall return of 2.07% in the first quarter of 2025. QDII funds led with a return of 3.93%, followed by mixed funds at 3.31% and stock funds at 2.93% [4][18] - The technology, pharmaceutical, and consumer sectors received significant attention from funds, with major holdings concentrated in electronics, food and beverage, banking, and non-bank financial sectors. Notable increases in holdings were observed in companies like Alibaba-W, BYD, and Tencent Holdings [4][25] Group 2 - The top 20 heavy-weight stocks primarily belong to the electronics, food and beverage, banking, and non-bank financial sectors, with new entrants like BYD and Alibaba-W, while companies like CITIC Securities and Mindray Medical exited the list [25][26] - The report notes that the electronic sector remains the largest heavy-weight sector for funds, with a holding market value ratio of 7.25%, followed by food and beverage and electric equipment sectors [30] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals, while reducing exposure to financial and cyclical industries, as the technology growth sector continues to attract market interest [5][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company has maintained impressive growth in net profit, achieving a revenue of 10.778 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.04%, and a net profit of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.00% year-on-year [1][12] - The main brand, Proya, has launched new product lines targeting oily skin and whitening, while multiple sub-brands have also seen growth [2] - Online sales channels have continued to grow rapidly, with online revenue reaching 10.234 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.68%, accounting for 95.06% of total revenue [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.552 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.71%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company’s gross margin improved to 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower freight rates and higher average transaction values [11] - The company expects net profits of 1.853 billion yuan, 2.171 billion yuan, and 2.516 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 times [12] Product Development - Proya has focused on upgrading its core products, introducing unique ingredients such as "XVII type recombinant collagen" in its new product lines [2] - The new product lines include the "净源系列" for oily skin and the "光学系列" for whitening, contributing to the brand's revenue growth [2] Market Position - Proya's main brand generated 8.581 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 79.69% of total revenue, with strong performance on platforms like Tmall [2] - The sub-brand 彩棠 achieved revenue of 1.191 billion yuan, while OR and 悦芙媞 also reported significant growth in their respective markets [2] Sales Channels - Online sales accounted for a significant portion of revenue, with direct and distribution channels contributing 8.122 billion yuan and 2.112 billion yuan respectively [10] - The company is optimizing its offline store structure, although offline revenue decreased by 13.63% to 532 million yuan in 2024 [10]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up by 0.39% and 0.59% respectively, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [1] - The report notes that the Ministry of Commerce and other departments have optimized the exit tax refund policy to stimulate inbound consumption, lowering the minimum refund threshold from 500 yuan to 200 yuan and increasing the cash refund limit from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan [2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the importance of self-reliance and application-oriented development in artificial intelligence, aiming for a healthy and orderly advancement of AI technology [2] Market Performance - The report provides a summary of domestic market performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,295.06 points, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index saw increases of 0.39% and 0.59% respectively [4] - Internationally, major indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw slight increases, with the Dow up 0.05% and the S&P 500 up 0.74% [4] Industry Insights - The report discusses the ongoing optimization of policies to stabilize the consumption sector, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption [7] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 25 highlighted the establishment of new policy financial tools to support consumption and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the gaming industry, with the approval of multiple game titles, including Tencent's "Path of Exile: Ascendancy," reflecting a normalization in the issuance of game licenses [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from policy support, including tourism, duty-free, hotel, and restaurant industries, as well as domestic beauty brands that are gaining market share [8] - In the real estate sector, the report indicates that the market is stabilizing, with expectations for continued policy support to enhance housing consumption [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of the AI and pharmaceutical sectors, recommending attention to AI drug development and smart healthcare supply chains as key growth areas [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][9]. Core Insights - The April game license issuance continues a normalized rhythm, with a total of 118 domestic games and 9 imported games approved. Year-to-date, 480 domestic games and 30 imported games have received approval [2][3]. - Notable titles include Tencent's "Path of Exile: Ascendancy," which is a representative new product in the dark ARPG category, achieving significant popularity with over 570,000 peak concurrent players on Steam and over 1 million pre-orders [2][3]. - The overall supply side remains stable, with the issuance of game licenses maintaining a level above 100, indicating a steady recovery trend in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In April, 118 domestic games and 9 imported games were approved, with significant titles from major developers like Tencent and NetEase [2]. - The total number of domestic games approved this year has reached 480, while 30 imported games have been approved [2]. Notable Game Releases - "Path of Exile: Ascendancy" is highlighted as a key new release, with its gameplay and style compared to "Diablo." It has received positive reception and high engagement metrics [2]. - The game is set to launch on the WeGame platform in China, with promotional activities planned for the upcoming Cologne Game Show [2]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a focus on leading companies with product reserves, R&D capabilities, and diverse thematic layouts, as the industry continues to recover and stabilize [3].