Investment Insights - The report explores microstructure information contained in Level 2 order data, constructing stock selection factors with certain predictive capabilities based on order hand sizes and investor activity [2][8] - The main order hand size factors exhibit robust stock selection abilities, with small orders (1 hand, 100 shares) indicating strong institutional participation, while small orders (5, 10, 15 hands) from retail investors negatively impact stock prices [2][15] - The combined order buy hand size factor from 2015 to 2025 shows a T1-T6 VWAP RankIC of 0.048, with annualized excess returns of 18.6% for long positions and 30.6% for long-short strategies [2][19] Main Order Hand Size Factors - The report constructs a comprehensive order hand size factor by synthesizing significant hand sizes, including buy and sell orders, both executed and canceled [13][14] - The order buy hand size factor has a RankIC of 0.048 from 2015 to 2025, indicating a strong correlation with stock performance, while the order sell hand size factor has a RankIC of 0.040 [22][24] Investor Type Factors - The report identifies four types of investors based on order hand sizes: institutional investors, retail investors, quantitative traders, and speculative traders, each exhibiting distinct trading behaviors [27][29] - The buy-to-sell ratio for speculative investors shows a negative correlation with future returns, indicating that higher speculative buying may lead to lower future stock performance [29][33] Investor Activity - The report introduces a dynamic monitoring system for investor activity, quantifying the participation intensity of different investor types over time [56] - The analysis of specific stocks, such as Han's Laser and Neway, reveals that institutional and quantitative investor activity significantly influences stock price movements during certain periods [56][58] Speculative Stock Pool - The report constructs a "speculative stock pool" based on abnormal order sizes, aiming to capture stocks in the accumulation phase before price increases [69][72] - The enhanced strategy, incorporating machine learning factors, shows improved performance metrics, with annualized excess returns reaching 14.7% [2][72]

Group 1: Financial Information Services - The market is recovering, and AI empowerment is driving the continuous release of value in financial information services, with significant profit growth expected for Tonghuashun, projecting a net profit of 2.735 to 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [3][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the company's investment in AI technologies, enhancing product competitiveness and user experience, alongside a rise in demand for financial information services as investor confidence improves [3][4] Group 2: Advertising and Marketing - Focus on the exit from Shuhua, with a significant impairment of 2.153 billion yuan recorded, leading to a net profit reduction of 2.529 billion yuan for 2025, while the company anticipates a net profit increase of 565 million yuan in Q1 2026 [7][10] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a minimum annual dividend of 80% of net profit, with a projected dividend yield of 4.2% based on current stock prices [11] Group 3: Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank expects a revenue growth of 1.09% and a net profit growth of 12.05% for 2025, with a significant reduction in overdue loans and an increase in non-interest income [15][17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with overdue loans significantly reduced, indicating improved asset quality [17][19] - China Merchants Bank anticipates a slight revenue growth of 0.01% and a net profit growth of 1.21% for 2025, with a stable deposit growth rate and a steady non-performing loan ratio [20][22] Group 4: Independent Medical Laboratory Industry - Aidi Kang Holdings is a pioneer in the independent medical laboratory (ICL) industry in China, providing standardized third-party testing services through a nationwide network of 34 self-operated laboratories [24][25] - The company has announced the acquisition of a global CRO focused on oncology and immuno-oncology for 204 million USD, enhancing its service capabilities in core disease areas [24][25] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices stabilizing after a decline, indicating potential for revenue growth for airlines [27][29] - Domestic travel demand is gradually recovering, with business travel increasing and international travel showing strong growth, suggesting a positive outlook for airline performance [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank (600926) is maintained at "Buy" [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 1.09% year-on-year and a net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 12.05% in 2025. The increase in non-interest income and a significant reduction in overdue loans are highlighted as key factors [6]. - The net interest income for 2025 is projected to be CNY 27.594 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.83%, indicating a stable net interest margin [6]. - The proportion of non-interest income has risen to 11%, with net commission income expected to reach CNY 4.207 billion, a growth of 13.10% year-on-year [6]. - The overdue loan ratio is significantly reduced, remaining stable at 0.76% as of the end of 2025, with a notable decrease in the ratio of overdue loans to non-performing loans [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected at CNY 38.798 billion, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 19.029 billion, with a growth rate of 12.05% [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be CNY 2.53 for 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 6.16x [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 0.76%, with a significant reduction in overdue loans, which are expected to be only 0.42% of total loans by the end of 2025 [6][8]. - The provision coverage ratio is projected to be 541.45% for 2024, indicating strong asset quality management [8]. Growth Projections - Revenue growth is forecasted to accelerate to 12.70% in 2026 and 10.40% in 2027, while net profit growth is expected to be 14.45% in 2026 and 10.88% in 2027 [8][9]. - The bank's total assets are projected to grow steadily, with a significant increase in retail customer assets and wealth management products [6].

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 计提减值退出数禾，不改主业发展韧性 ——分众传媒（002027）公司动态事件点评 最近一年走势 事件: 1 月 23 日，公司公告针对上海数禾计提长期股权投资减值 21.53 亿元， 于 2025 年第四季度按权益法计提数禾的亏损 3.76 亿元，导致公司 2025 年净利润减少 25.29 亿元，2026Q1 归母净利润增加 5.65 亿元，公司同 时减资全面退出上海数禾。 投资要点: 公司维持高分红，新潮收购即将完成。 此次减值为非经常性损益，与公司主业无关。公司此前承诺年分红 金额不低于扣非净利润 80%，据此假设下年股息率 4.2%（依据 2026 年 1 月 23 日股价）。此外，1 月 13 日公司公告收购新潮传媒获深 交所受理，收购完成后双方在大小客户资源互补、高低线媒资覆盖、 表现 1M 3M 12M 分众传媒 3.3% -0.1% 20.4% 沪深 300 1.1% 1.0% 22.8% 市场数据 2026/01/26 当前价格（元） 7.42 52 周价格区间（元） 6.21-8.76 总市值（百万 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 谢婧茹 S0350125070015 xiejr01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 市场回暖与 AI 赋能双重驱动，金融信息服务价 值持续释放 ——同花顺（300033）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M 12M | | 同花顺 | | 8.9% | -1.9% 18.4% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.1% | 1.0% 22.8% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 355.03 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 232.00-435.00 | | 总市值（百万） | 190,864.13 | | 流通市值（百万） | 111,177.84 | | 总股本（万股） | 53,760.00 | | 流通股 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 营收利润加速增长，预计净息差趋势继 续向好 《招商银行（600036）2025 年三季报点评：Q3 营收同比增速转正，资产质量稳中向好（买入）* 股份制银行Ⅱ*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-10-30 《招商银行（600036）2025 年中报点评：净利润 增速转正，资产质量稳中向好（买入）*股份制银 行Ⅱ*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-09-02 《招商银行（600036）2024 年年报点评：资产规 模、客户存款和零售客户 AUM 增速突破两位数（买 ——招商银行（600036）2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2026/01/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 招商银行 | ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, SmartSens, is expected to achieve a revenue of 8.8 to 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47% to 54% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 976 million to 1.031 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 149% to 162% [3] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 11.15% for 2025, which is an increase of 4.57 percentage points compared to the previous year, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [4] Group 2: Product Segments - In the smartphone sector, the company has deepened collaborations with multiple clients, leading to a substantial increase in the shipment of high-end products, including 50 million pixel cameras [5] - In the automotive electronics sector, the company has seen a significant rise in the shipment of products used for intelligent driving assistance, contributing to revenue growth [5] - The smart security segment has also experienced growth, with the company increasing its market share in high-end security and smart home applications [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The Chinese government has announced subsidies for consumers purchasing digital and smart products, which is expected to boost sales in the consumer electronics sector [6] - Recent policy changes in Canada and Germany are expected to facilitate the export of Chinese electric vehicles, creating new competitive dynamics in the automotive market [6] - The penetration rate of passenger cars equipped with advanced driving assistance systems (L2 level) in China has reached 64%, indicating a growing market for intelligent driving technologies [6] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for SmartSens from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 90.5 billion, 122.45 billion, and 152.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 35%, and 24% respectively [8] - The projected net profits for the same period are 10.03 billion, 15.17 billion, and 19.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 155%, 51%, and 31% respectively [8] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 41, 27, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From January 20th to January 26th, the bond market seller sentiment index declined, while the buyer sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. The bond market allocation force steadily entered the market, and the suppression of the equity market slowed down, driving the long - term bonds to have a repair market. However, the expected time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still far off, and the market has a strong expectation of range - bound fluctuations in the market. The seller sentiment cooled slightly, and the market's judgment on the subsequent space remains cautious [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.07, a decrease of 0.07 compared with January 13th - January 19th. Some institutional market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 22 neutral, and 3 bearish. 17% of institutions are bullish, believing that the warming of easing expectations and the decline in capital interest rates establish a favorable environment, combined with fundamental support and reverse layout opportunities. The bond market has a ceiling but also room below, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. 73% of institutions are neutral, thinking that the recovery of the fundamentals and supply pressure pose a suppression, but the allocation force and loose capital supply provide support, and the regulatory desirable range restricts the downward space. The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations. 10% of institutions are bearish, expecting that the lack of confidence during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reverse, the long - term low - interest - rate expectation faces correction, and in the short term, under the suppression of supply shocks and the recovery of risk appetite, the bond market still has downward pressure [13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was 0.00, an increase of 0.15 compared with January 13th - January 19th. The sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 5 bearish. 19% of institutions are bullish, believing that the expected cooling of the stock market and hedging demand form a bullish support. The long - term decline of the population and real estate cycles establishes a low - interest - rate environment, combined with the warming of expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the alleviation of previous suppression factors, the bond market sentiment is significantly bullish. 62% of institutions are neutral, stating that although the expectation of MLF interest rate cuts and moderately loose monetary policy provide some support, under the money - attracting effect of the stock market and the constraints of the central bank's desirable range, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. 19% of institutions are bearish, believing that the long - term fundamentals weaken under the expectation of stable inflation and economic improvement, combined with the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and credit risk disturbances. Without new bullish factors, it is difficult to break through the central bank's range downward [14].

Core Insights - The report addresses three main issues: recent bond market review, changes in institutional behavior, and future outlook for the bond market [2] - The bond market is undergoing a transformation characterized by a dual behavior of institutions [3] Group 1: Institutional Behavior Changes - The supply side pressure is evident with local government bond issuance expected to reach 1.94 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, with high issuance volumes in January and March [5] - The demand side shows a deterioration in traditional allocation demand, with major banks and insurance companies showing decreased willingness to absorb long-term bonds [5] - The trading side indicates a shift where rural commercial banks are retreating while brokerages are becoming more active, particularly in trading 10Y and 30Y bonds [16][17] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The issuance plan for government bonds in Q1 2026 is heavily concentrated in February and March, with various maturities being offered [6] - The report highlights that large banks are focusing on realizing profits from older bonds, while insurance institutions are primarily buying local bonds instead of national bonds [7] - The trading volume remains low, and the volatility is expected to decrease further as banks increase their trading in 10Y bonds [23] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market may experience further adjustments, with brokerages likely to increase their trading of long-term bonds [13] - There is a notable pressure for profit-taking among joint-stock banks, particularly in 10Y national bonds, which may influence future trading strategies [14] - The report anticipates that the yield spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds may widen, while the spread between 10Y national bonds and national development bonds may narrow [23]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 日美错位下的信用重构：告别增长定价 最近一年走势 相关报告 《信用重启与双峰共振——2026 年海外年度策略* 袁野，赵阳》——2026-01-12 《全球流动性"祛魅"，中国资产"重估"*赵阳， 袁野》——2025-12-20 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、研判美联储主席博弈逻辑与胜率切 换 ；2、剖析日本汇债双杀成因及展望 ；3、信用溢价逻辑下的定价逻 辑切换。 核心结论: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 美联储主席提名博弈进入"买方实用主义"新阶段，里德尔成为平衡 增长与中性利率的关键锚点。截至 2026 年 1 月 2 ...