Macroeconomic Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, signals a shift in global trade dynamics and geopolitical relations, accelerating the restructuring of global economic and trade patterns[6] - The potential for a global economic recession remains high, with a long-term view suggesting a reconfiguration of global supply chains, leading to temporary supply shortages and increased investment, which may elevate medium to long-term inflation pressures[8] - The U.S. dollar's credibility may weaken due to accelerated "de-dollarization" trends and rising trade protectionism[8] Financial Market Reactions - The "tariff storm" has intensified, leading to a rapid decline in risk asset prices, with expectations of higher volatility in domestic equity markets[9] - Short-term performance of brokerage firms and credit businesses is likely to be under pressure due to heightened investor risk aversion[9] - Long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to continue, with insurance companies increasing their equity investment space[9] Commodity and Metal Sector - The impact of tariffs on commodities is categorized into two main directions: bulk commodities and China's advantageous minor metals, with significant effects on demand and pricing dynamics[10] - Copper prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight domestic supply, despite macroeconomic uncertainties[12] - Zinc's overall impact from tariffs is limited due to China's small import scale from the U.S., but downstream products may face market share pressures[13] New Energy and Technology - The lithium market is largely unaffected by tariffs, as key products are exempt, but the overall demand for lithium batteries may decline due to increased costs[23] - The U.S. storage sector may face demand risks, but its overall impact on global demand remains manageable, with China maintaining a leading position in the supply chain[24] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, despite potential short-term price increases for imported chips[31] Strategic Resources and Rare Earths - China maintains a dominant position in the rare earth market, with over 70% of U.S. imports relying on Chinese sources, particularly for heavy rare earths[20] - The introduction of tariffs may lead to price increases for strategic metals, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing supply chain dynamics[19] Automotive and High-End Manufacturing - The automotive sector is likely to see significant price increases in the U.S. due to a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts, impacting domestic demand[28] - China's engineering machinery exports are relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited exposure to the U.S. market, allowing for continued global operations[33] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - The tourism and retail sectors may benefit from changes in tax policies, with domestic consumption potentially increasing due to higher prices on imported goods[34] - The overall trade landscape is shifting, with opportunities for domestic businesses to capitalize on tariff-induced market changes[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. government's imposition of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, particularly affecting the lithium battery sector, is expected to impact China's export market significantly, with an estimated loss of approximately $15.3 billion in lithium battery exports to the U.S. in 2024 [2][13] - Despite the tariff pressures, China's lithium battery industry is anticipated to maintain strong competitiveness due to its established supply chain and production efficiency compared to U.S. manufacturers [16][17] - The report highlights that the U.S. will likely rely more on domestic production, which may lead to higher costs and delayed price parity for electric vehicles [16] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 10, 2025, the U.S. announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, continuing a trend that began with the IRA Act in 2022 [2][10] Event Commentary - The U.S. tariffs are expected to have a more significant impact on the export of energy storage batteries, which constitute a major portion of China's lithium battery exports to the U.S. [3][13] - In 2024, China's lithium battery exports are projected to account for 16% of total shipments, with the U.S. being the largest market [12][13] Global Supply Chain Impact - The report discusses the potential shifts in the global lithium battery supply chain, noting that while China may reduce exports to the U.S., other countries like Japan and South Korea may partially fill the demand gap [16] - The U.S. domestic market will likely face higher production costs and lower efficiency compared to China, which could delay the adoption of affordable electric vehicles [16] Implications for China - The increase in tariffs may lead to a reduction in exports to the U.S. and an increase in prices for exported products, particularly energy storage batteries [17] - The report suggests that China may respond by investing in local production facilities in the U.S. or exploring markets with lower tariffs [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts will significantly increase the cost of cars in the U.S., raising the average vehicle cost by approximately $7,000, which is about 14% of the current vehicle price [3][14] - The U.S. automotive industry is highly dependent on imports, with 50% of vehicle sales coming from imports and 69% of the supply chain value being imported [3][12] - Traditional automakers like Ford and General Motors will be more adversely affected by the tariffs compared to newer companies like Tesla, as a significant portion of their vehicles is manufactured outside the U.S. [15] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation - A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts was announced, effective April 3, 2025, for vehicles and May 3, 2025, for parts [2][11] - The tariffs are uniform and do not vary based on the country of origin, with exemptions for parts that meet the U.S. value content requirements under the USMCA [2][11] Impact on U.S. Automotive Prices - The additional tariffs will lead to a substantial increase in vehicle prices, which could dampen overall automotive demand in the U.S. market [3][14] - The projected increase in vehicle costs could lead to a stagnation in the growth of the U.S. automotive market, particularly affecting the sales of electric vehicles [15] Effects on Other Countries - Mexico, Canada, Japan, and South Korea are the primary countries affected by the tariffs, with these nations accounting for 89% of U.S. automotive imports [4][17] - Mexico is particularly vulnerable, as automotive exports to the U.S. represent 26% of its total exports [4][20] - In contrast, China's automotive export volume to the U.S. is relatively low, with only 11,600 vehicles expected to be exported in 2024, making the impact of the tariffs on China limited [5][22]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 事件描述 2025 年 4 月 8 日，国家金融监督管理总局印发《关于调整保险资金权益类资 产监管比例有关事项的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。 事件点评 "对等关税"扰动全球金融市场，金融监管总局上调险资入市比例稳定资本 市场。近期，特朗普"对等关税"政策实施引发全球资产价格大幅波动，国内 权益市场遭受重创。"关税风暴"下，4 月 8 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布 《通知》，不仅是《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》的具体落实，也是 监管层释放的引入中长期资金入市、增强资本市场内在稳定性的积极信号。 放宽险资权益类资产配置比例上限，预计为 A 股市场带来超万亿的增量资金。 本次《通知》简化了偿付能力充足率的分档标准，将原先的七档缩减为五档； 对超过 150%低于 250%、超过 250%低于 350%、超过 350%三档的权益类 资产账面余额做出一定提升；调高权益类资产账面余额上限，由 45% 提升至 50%（上季末综合偿付能力充足率超过 350%）。2024 年三季度末，财产险 公司权益类资产账面余额占比 22.58%，人身险公司权益类资产账面余额占比 20.27%；从上市险企角度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [3][23]. Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods by the US, including a "reciprocal tariff," is an escalation of ongoing policies aimed at suppressing China's lithium battery industry, which began with the IRA Act in 2022 [2][8]. - The expected tariffs on Chinese exports to the US for power batteries and energy storage batteries are projected to be 153% and 136% respectively, significantly impacting China's export dynamics [2][12]. - The US is the largest export market for China's lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports, with an estimated export value of approximately $15.3 billion in 2024 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The US has announced a series of tariffs on Chinese goods, including a significant increase to 125% on certain products, which is part of a broader strategy to limit China's lithium battery sector [1][8]. Impact on Global Supply Chain - The tariffs will likely lead to a reduction in Chinese exports to the US, with potential short-term demand being filled by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, although they may not fully replace Chinese products in the energy storage segment [2][14]. - The US will increasingly rely on domestic production, which may enhance local employment but will also face higher production costs compared to China, delaying the price parity point for electric vehicles [15][16]. Effects on China - The tariffs are expected to reduce the volume of lithium battery exports to the US, potentially impacting around 4% of China's total battery shipments, but the overall effect on the domestic market is considered limited [16]. - The cost pressures from tariffs may lead to increased prices for exported products, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is primarily based on lithium iron phosphate [16][18]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the Chinese lithium battery industry will maintain a strong competitive edge despite the tariffs, with strategies including local investments in the US, shifting production to regions with lower tariffs, and expanding into other markets [18][19].

中国中免（601888）24 年年报点评： 关注市内免税政策落地 渠道拓展巩固出入境免税业务优势：2024 年中免积极拓宽渠道，中标广州白 云国际机场、昆明长水机场等 10 个机场及口岸免税项目经营权。现有的北京 机场（首都国际机场、大兴国际机场等）免税店收入同比增长 115%以上，上 海机场（浦东国际机场、虹桥国际机场等）免税店门店收入同比增长 32%左 右，展现出出入境市场消费复苏态势良好，具备较强发展潜力。 市内免税有望带来新增长点：2024 年 8 月《关于完善市内免税店政策的通 知》为中免发展市内免税店业务提供政策支撑。24 年末中免大连市内免税店 开业，且预计其中标的深圳、广州、西安等 6 家免税店有望短期内带动营收 增长。 投资建议 事件描述 公司 24 年全年表现符合之前业绩快报披露值：年收入 564.7 亿元，yoy- 16.4%；归母净利润 42.7 亿元，yoy-36.4%；扣非归母净利润 41.4 亿元，yoy- 37.7%。 公司 24 年 Q4 营收 134.5 亿元，yoy-19.5%；营业利润 7.2 亿元，yoy-66%； 归母净利润 3.5 亿元，yoy-76.9%；扣非归 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the high-end manufacturing industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is advancing towards commercialization, with Tesla's Optimus orders being fulfilled and Figure AI announcing plans for a production line capable of producing 100,000 units over the next four years. The current market lacks valuable application scenarios, but demand exists, and advancements in large model technology are expected to bridge the gap between supply and demand in the next 3-5 years. Companies to watch include Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Fengcai Technology [15][16]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a strong start, with significant sales growth in excavators and forklifts. In February 2025, excavator sales reached 19,300 units, up 52.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 99.4%. The China Machinery Industry Index (CMI) for March 2025 was 128.56, indicating a robust market [15][16]. - The comprehensive tariff on China's exports of engineering machinery to the U.S. has risen to 79%, but the impact is manageable due to the limited proportion of exports to the U.S. The expected export value for 2024 is $52.859 billion, with the U.S. accounting for $4.055 billion, or 7.7% [16]. - The mining machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with the Parker Bay surface mining equipment index rebounding significantly in Q4 2024. Orders for mining equipment from major companies like Weir and Metso have also seen notable growth [16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Insights - The humanoid robot industry is in its early stages of commercialization, with significant developments expected in the next few years [15]. - The engineering machinery market is thriving, with impressive sales figures and a positive outlook for the coming months [15][16]. Section 2: Data Tracking - In February 2025, excavator sales reached 19,300 units, with domestic sales up 99.4% year-on-year [67]. - The CMI for March 2025 indicates a strong market, with a year-on-year increase of 18.28% [15][16]. Section 3: Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector has shown resilience despite tariff challenges, with a diversified export market [16]. - The mining machinery sector is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by global demand for mining resources [16].

高端制造产业跟踪（3月）： Optimus订单落地，工程机械关税影响可控 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/04/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 1. 板块观点 人形机器人产业化更进一步，从发展角度看待人形机器人的应用场景。本月特斯拉optimus订单落地，Figure AI正式公布了BotQ人形机器人生产线的设计方案并 规划未来4年内实现10万台产能，人形机器人产业化迈出重要一步。当前市场对人形机器人应用场景有较多争议，我们认为需要从发展的视角去思考这一问题。当 前人形机器人处于产业化初期，缺乏具有价值的落地场景，但这并不是没有需求，而是无法提供有效供给。我们认为大模型技术的发展将快速弥合需求和供给之 间的鸿沟。未来3-5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in 2024, with total revenue of 15.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.074 billion, up 15% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 5.124 billion, a 51% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 745 million, up 107% [1] - The CG (Chinagoods) e-commerce platform contributed to revenue growth, generating 340 million in revenue and 165 million in operating profit, a year-on-year increase of 102% [2] - The introduction of the "Yi Pay" service has enhanced the company's digital financial ecosystem, supporting cross-border settlements and trade financing, with a target of 6 billion USD in collections by 2025 [2] - The "Yiwu Deepening Reform Plan" provides policy support for the company's further development in the Yiwu market, with potential new profit growth from import business [2] - The company's export business is thriving, with Yiwu's total import and export volume increasing by 18.2% in 2024, positioning the company to benefit from technological support and favorable policies [3] Financial Summary - The company is expected to maintain a positive performance trend, with projected net profits of 4.116 billion, 5.456 billion, and 6.516 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 21 times, 16 times, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include total revenue of 15.737 billion and a net profit of 3.074 billion, with growth rates of 39.3% and 14.9% respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in social retail sales (社零) with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in January-February 2025, indicating a 4 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, although the growth rate remains weaker compared to the previous year [12][23] - Rural consumption is showing significant growth, outpacing urban areas, with rural retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year [13][23] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the service consumption market, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in service retail sales, driven by holiday economic effects during the Spring Festival [27][30] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 1.43 million units in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [31][32] - E-commerce is thriving, with online retail sales growing by 7.3% year-on-year, supported by policies promoting digital consumption and the integration of online and offline retail [33][34] Summary by Sections Social Retail Sales - In January-February 2025, social retail sales totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [12] - The retail sales of goods reached 73,939 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 4,417 billion yuan, increasing by 3.6% [18][21] - The report notes that the growth in rural areas is becoming a new growth engine for overall consumption [13][23] Service Consumption - The service retail market saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from tourism and dining during the Spring Festival [27][30] - The number of domestic travelers exceeded 500 million during the holiday, with a notable increase in spending [30] Low-Carbon Consumption - The new energy vehicle market is highlighted, with a retail penetration rate of 44.9% and a significant increase in sales [31][32] - The report indicates a shift towards green consumption across various sectors, including home appliances and food and beverage [32] E-commerce - E-commerce sales are on the rise, with a 7.3% increase in online retail, driven by enhanced digital experiences and policies supporting consumption upgrades [33][34] - The report notes a significant growth in online travel services, reflecting the expanding potential of the e-commerce market [34]