Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the leisure services sector [4]. Core Insights - The government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, implementing special actions to enhance consumer spending through various measures such as income growth for different demographic groups and optimizing regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The introduction of a special long-term bond worth 300 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to significantly enhance consumer spending and improve the overall consumption environment [3][11]. - New consumption growth points are emerging, with sectors like the ice and snow economy, silver economy, platform economy, and low-altitude economy showing rapid development [10][12]. Summary by Sections Government Policy and Economic Impact - The government aims to increase final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth, which reached 44.5% in 2024, driving a 2.2% increase in GDP [9]. - The special consumption-boosting actions will focus on income growth for skilled workers, farmers, and retirees, thereby releasing more consumer potential [9][10]. Consumer Goods Replacement Policy - The 2025 policy for replacing old consumer goods will see a funding increase to 300 billion yuan, a 100% year-on-year growth, with the first batch of 81 billion yuan already allocated [3][11]. - The policy will expand to include more consumer goods, such as microwaves, dishwashers, and smartphones, particularly in the automotive sector for new energy vehicles and compliant fuel vehicles [3][14]. Regional Policy Variations - There are regional differences in the implementation of the replacement policy, with more funding directed towards regions with better implementation results, particularly in the central and western areas [12][14]. - The policy's effectiveness varies by region, with urban areas like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slower growth in certain consumer goods compared to western regions [12]. Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption concepts are continuously emerging, with diverse service offerings and innovative consumption scenarios being developed [9][10]. - The platform economy is expected to transform traditional production factors into significant GDP growth drivers, while the low-altitude economy is anticipated to enhance consumption through tourism and logistics [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cancellation of sanctions against Russia may lead to a reshaping of aluminum and nickel trade flows, but the overall impact on global supply is limited [2][42] - The price impact of sanctions on key metals is diminishing, with nickel expected to experience the most volatility [3][46] Summary by Sections Supply Impact - Russian production of key metals has not significantly decreased, with aluminum and nickel exports slightly declining, primarily shifting from Europe to Asia [2] - In 2024, the U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports of Russian aluminum by 184,000 and 447,000 tons respectively, with the EU planning to completely ban imports by 2026 [2][42] - If sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum may re-enter the U.S. and EU markets, potentially increasing global aluminum supply slightly [2][42] Price Impact - The sanctions have had a muted effect on metal prices, with market reactions becoming less pronounced over time [3][46] - Short-term price declines may occur if sanctions are lifted, but the extent of the drop is expected to be limited [3][46] Metal-Specific Insights - **Aluminum**: The U.S. and EU have reduced imports, but if sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum could return to the supply chain, increasing global supply [2][42] - **Nickel**: The U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports, but the U.S. may increase imports from Russia if sanctions are lifted, leading to a slight increase in global supply [2][42] - **Copper**: The trade relationship with the U.S. is minimal, and sanctions have little impact on copper exports, which primarily go to China and Central Asia [31] - **Potash**: The U.S. may increase imports of Russian potash, while the EU's imports are expected to stabilize [45] - **Rare Earths**: Development is still in early stages, with significant technological and infrastructure challenges limiting short-term supply impacts [40][45]

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 [Table_Author] 分析师 李烁 | 登记编码：S0950524120001 | | --- | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： lis19@w kzq.com.cn | | 分析师 黄梓钊 | | 登记编码：S0950523120001 | | ： ：021-61102510 | | ： huangzizhao@wkzq.com.cn | | [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/3/5 | | 21% 14% | | 8% 2% | | -5% | 资料来源：Wind，聚源 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究 富锑矿采区开采完毕 ...

[Table_Main] "双供需体系"下，国内锑价景气的草 蛇灰线 事件描述 内外价差持续，国内锑价大幅补涨。2024 年 8 月份中国正式禁止锑锭出口， 国内外锑锭价格走势分化：欧洲锑锭报价七个月的时间涨幅高达 135.4%；春 节过后国内锑锭价格开始大幅补涨。 事件点评 三大因素夯实本轮国内价格快速上涨的坚实基础，锑价有望继续创新高，直 至内外价差再平衡。 国内外价差致国内原料紧张，价差急需修复。1）内外价差大，中国进口原料 难度提升。全球直接面临原料低价销售中国的意愿降低，而海外又没有足够 冶炼能力承接原料盈余的局面；2）价差加速锑冶炼产能开始向东南亚转移。 国内原料紧张带动价格上涨是当前国内外价差持续拉大的背景下的必然结 果，海外冶炼产能逐渐开始放量值得警惕。2024 年 12 月份单月，泰国、日 本、美国、欧盟以上国家合计从缅甸进口锑锭量已经接近 1200 吨，较之前 1- 8 月份平均 268 吨的平均值，增加了 345%。 锑系阻燃剂价格上行，需求表现强劲。2025 年 2 月份开始，国内锑系阻燃材 料报价开始连续上涨，年涨幅达到 30%以上，明显高于锑锭涨幅，体现出阻 燃需求的强劲。1）溴－ ...

高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布h ...

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 富锑矿采区开采完毕，锑产量大幅下降。Olimpiada 矿是公司唯一含锑的黄金 矿山，其中 Vostochny 采区第四阶段属于富锑矿段，2024 年开采完毕导致 Olimpiada 浮选精矿产量下降。根据公司公告，24H2 加强 Vostochny 采区第 五阶段开采剥离工作，所以采剥比大幅抬升。 矿端库存和浮选精矿产品库存均大幅消耗。1）24H2 明显矿石处理量高于矿 石开采量，说明公司消耗前期积累库存；2）根据公司公告，24H2 黄金销量 提高，主要销售了之前积累的含锑浮选矿，作为黄金成本抵扣，黄金成本环比 下降 16%达到 355 美元/盎司（24H1 锑抵扣 6 美元/盎司 ...

分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 02 联系人：周越 数据跟踪 03 04 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 板块观点 01 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布helix模型及在物流场景的应用视 ...

[Table_Main] "双供需体系"下，国内锑价景气的草 蛇灰线 事件描述 内外价差持续，国内锑价大幅补涨。2024 年 8 月份中国正式禁止锑锭出口， 国内外锑锭价格走势分化：欧洲锑锭报价七个月的时间涨幅高达 135.4%；春 节过后国内锑锭价格开始大幅补涨。 事件点评 三大因素夯实本轮国内价格快速上涨的坚实基础，锑价有望继续创新高，直 至内外价差再平衡。 国内外价差致国内原料紧张，价差急需修复。1）内外价差大，中国进口原料 难度提升。全球直接面临原料低价销售中国的意愿降低，而海外又没有足够 冶炼能力承接原料盈余的局面；2）价差加速锑冶炼产能开始向东南亚转移。 国内原料紧张带动价格上涨是当前国内外价差持续拉大的背景下的必然结 果，海外冶炼产能逐渐开始放量值得警惕。2024 年 12 月份单月，泰国、日 本、美国、欧盟以上国家合计从缅甸进口锑锭量已经接近 1200 吨，较之前 1- 8 月份平均 268 吨的平均值，增加了 345%。 锑系阻燃剂价格上行，需求表现强劲。2025 年 2 月份开始，国内锑系阻燃材 料报价开始连续上涨，年涨幅达到 30%以上，明显高于锑锭涨幅，体现出阻 燃需求的强劲。1）溴－ ...

矿盐价格倒挂，后续锂矿价格或将承压 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：吴依凡 邮箱：wuyf3@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 证券研究报告|行业周报 2025/03/06 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 新能源产业趋势点评 01 产业动态&数据跟踪 02 03 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 附录 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 新能源产业趋势点评 新能源产业趋势点评（2025年2月8日-2月27日） 能源 ...

Economic Growth and Targets - The 2025 economic growth target is set at 5%, higher than the international forecast of 4.5%-4.8%, indicating confidence in economic recovery and sufficient policy reserves[2] - The CPI target is set at 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to current weak domestic demand and expectations[2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan[3] - General public budget expenditure is projected at 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year, breaking the previous consensus of a 3% fiscal constraint[3] - The issuance of special bonds includes 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term bonds and 500 billion yuan to support state-owned banks, with a total new government debt of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan[17] Domestic Demand and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized in the 2025 government work tasks, emphasizing the need for consumption and investment[4] - The report outlines ten key areas of focus, with "expanding domestic demand" at the forefront, followed by "developing new productivity" and "promoting education and science"[4] Risk Management and External Environment - The report acknowledges rising external uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, which may impact trade and investment confidence[9] - It emphasizes the need for proactive policy implementation to enhance economic resilience against external shocks[11] Long-term Economic Strategy - The focus on "new productivity" and "education and science" reflects a long-term strategy for sustainable economic growth, balancing short-term stabilization with long-term development[4] - The government aims to address structural issues in the economy, including weak domestic demand and employment challenges, through comprehensive macroeconomic policies[10]