震有科技（688418.SH）公司事件点评 签订 15 亿美元光纤总包项目，"低空+低轨"助力成长 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件：4 月 15 日，震有科技发布公告，公司与刚果民主共和国光纤公司签 署了关于"刚果民主共和国国家骨干光纤宽带网络项目"的总包工程框架协议， 合同金额为 15 亿美元（不含税）。 ➢ 公司大额订单签订有望在后续对公司业绩产生明显积极影响。本项目采用总 价合同模式，总包预算金额为 15 亿美元。项目由"框架协议+订单"构成，订 单为本协议的组成部分；每个订单独立验收，独立结算；公司以收到预付款为执 行订单的前提，不存在前期垫资风险，共计 48 个月完成整个工程。我们认为本 次合作的具体落实将有助于进一步拓展公司在非洲地区光通信业务的市场布局， 提高市场竞争力，项目确收也将对公司未来业绩产生明显积极影响。 ➢ 横向前瞻拓展低空经济布局，多维度推进低空场景应用。低空经济领域的发 展离不开稳定、高效的通信网络支持，公司所布局的通信产品技术，可以为低空 经济业务做好通信侧的支撑。公司旗下的鹏有（深圳）飞行科技有限公司， 持 续探索于 eVTOL（电动垂直起降飞行器）起降站点建设、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.237 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 43.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 930 million yuan, down 43.76% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with projects in Indonesia and Morocco, enhancing the resilience of its supply chain for new energy materials [2]. - The company is actively developing new technologies, including solid-state batteries and silicon-based anodes, which significantly improve product competitiveness [3]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.537 billion, 20.683 billion, and 27.161 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 42.3%, and 31.3% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.968 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.50%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.78% [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.85%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.55 percentage points [1]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 6.84%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [1]. Sales and Production - The company sold 437,800 tons of negative electrode materials in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.97%, while the revenue from negative electrodes was 10.692 billion yuan, down 13.04% due to price declines [2]. - The sales volume of positive electrode materials was 19,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51.71%, with revenue of 3.079 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully launched an integrated project in Indonesia with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of new energy lithium battery negative materials [2]. - In Morocco, the company has initiated projects for the production of 50,000 tons of lithium-ion battery positive materials and 60,000 tons of negative materials [2]. - The company has established production lines for solid-state electrolytes and developed advanced silicon-carbon anode materials, enhancing its technological capabilities [3].

Q1 业绩亮眼，成长势能充沛 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 15 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现营业 收入/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 48.48/9.80/9.59 亿元，分别同比 +39.23%/+47.62%/+53.55%。 东鹏饮料（605499.SH）2025 年一季报点评 ➢ 核心单品增势稳健，电解质占比突破双位数。分产品看，25Q1 公司能量饮 料营收 39.0 亿元，同比+25.7%；电解质水营收 5.7 亿元，同比+261.5%，占比 突破双位数达 11.8%，同比+7.2pct；其他饮料营收 3.7 亿元，同比+72.6%，占 比达 7.7%，同比+1.5pct。公司坚持渠道开拓及精耕，为营收高增打下坚实基础， 同时平台化布局呈加速趋势，第二曲线及新品营收贡献持续爬升，其中核心产品 东鹏特饮在网点持续开拓之外，持续通过营销投入夯实品牌力并拓展消费人群， 单点卖力不断提升，东鹏补水啦作为第二增长极终端铺货率快速爬坡，公司多品 类战略布局亦持续深化。分区域看，25Q1 广东区域营收 11.3 亿元，同比+22%； 与此同时，公司全国 ...

东鹏饮料（605499.SH）2025 年一季报点评 Q1 业绩亮眼，成长势能充沛 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 15 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 公司实现营业 收入/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 48.48/9.80/9.59 亿元，分别同比 +39.23%/+47.62%/+53.55%。 ➢ 核心单品增势稳健，电解质占比突破双位数。分产品看，25Q1 公司能量饮 料营收 39.0 亿元，同比+25.7%；电解质水营收 5.7 亿元，同比+261.5%，占比 突破双位数达 11.8%，同比+7.2pct；其他饮料营收 3.7 亿元，同比+72.6%，占 比达 7.7%，同比+1.5pct。公司坚持渠道开拓及精耕，为营收高增打下坚实基础， 同时平台化布局呈加速趋势，第二曲线及新品营收贡献持续爬升，其中核心产品 东鹏特饮在网点持续开拓之外，持续通过营销投入夯实品牌力并拓展消费人群， 单点卖力不断提升，东鹏补水啦作为第二增长极终端铺货率快速爬坡，公司多品 类战略布局亦持续深化。分区域看，25Q1 广东区域营收 11.3 亿元，同比+22%； 与此同时，公司全国 ...

贝特瑞（835185.BJ）2024 年年报点评 全球化布局持续深化，新技术多点开花 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件。公司发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营收 142.37 亿元，同比-43.32%， 实现归母净利润 9.30 亿元，同比-43.76%，扣非后归母净利润 9.13 亿元，同比 -42.20%。 ➢ Q4 业绩拆分。营收和净利：公司 2024Q4 营收 39.68 亿元,同比-17.50%， 环比+22.78%，归母净利润为 2.59 亿元，同比-10.47%，环比+44.99%，扣非 后归母净利润为 2.34 亿元，同比-17.26%，环比+61.78%。毛利率：2024Q4 毛 利率为 24.85%，同比+2.55pcts，环比+0.28pct。净利率：2024Q4 净利率为 6.84%，同比+0.02pct，环比+1.40pct。 ➢ 负极销量稳步增长。2024 年，公司负极材料销量达到 43.78 万吨，同比增 长 20.97%，负极营业收入 106.92 亿元，同比下降 13.04%，主要系负极材料受 到价格下降影响；正极材料销量 1.98 万吨，同比下降 51.71%，正 ...

量化专题报告 威科夫点数图的绘制与应用：股票涨跌空间判断 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 威科夫"因果关系"原则揭示了主力吸筹/派发准备与后续涨跌空间的关系。 该原则通过盘整区间中价格震荡次数预测突破后的涨跌幅度，反映主力吸筹/派 发阶段对市场浮筹的清理程度/对非主力筹码的锁定程度。有效震荡次数越多，突 破后阻力越小，空间越大。"横有多长，竖有多高"并非指盘整时间的长度，而是 有效震荡次数。其计数即点数图（Point and Figure）的核心功能。 ➢ 点数图历史由来已久，整体经过了多代技术分析专家的改进与迭代。其起源 于 19 世纪商品交易记录的需求。20 世纪初威科夫、Victor de Villiers 等人对其 进行了系统化和理论化。20 世纪 50 到 80 年代 A.W. Cohen 标准化了其最优 3 格转向值规则并进行了商业化推广，使其成为主流工具。现代高频交易时代，点 数图因预测的期限较长，在海外市场有一定边缘化。但 A 股市场还未有大规模使 用点数图分析的记录。 ➢ 点数图核心记录价格的趋势与反转，规则兼顾噪音过滤与盘整趋势识别。单 点点数图仅记录价格波动（趋势与反转）而忽略时间 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 19.35 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth with a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 234 million yuan, up 5.77% year-on-year [1]. - The product structure continues to optimize, with high-end products (priced above 300 yuan) achieving a revenue increase of 28.14%, while products priced between 100-300 yuan grew by 14.24%. However, products below 100 yuan saw a decline of 31.72% [2]. - The company is expanding its market presence, with a revenue of 857 million yuan from its home province, Gansu, representing a 1.05% increase, while revenue from outside the province grew by 9.48% to 238 million yuan [2]. - Cost control measures have led to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 66.81%, up 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 21.09%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [3]. - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 3.28 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2025, indicating year-on-year growth of 8.56% and 5.11%, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 269 million yuan, a decrease of 21.56% year-on-year. The ending contract liabilities were 583 million yuan, down 7.65% [1][3]. - The company’s sales revenue from distribution channels reached 1.035 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.83% [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with high-end products leading the growth. The market strategy emphasizes nationwide layout while deepening its presence in the northwest region [2][4]. - The company has increased its market share in Gansu, with notable growth in regions like Hexi Corridor and Zhangye [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3.289 billion yuan, 3.601 billion yuan, and 3.980 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 409 million yuan, 441 million yuan, and 481 million yuan [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 49.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle (ATV) segments are experiencing upward momentum, driven by both domestic and international sales [2][3]. - The company is expanding its product matrix with new high-end models, which is expected to enhance market share and growth potential [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 24.2%, with a net profit of 1.47 billion yuan, up 46.1% [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 420 million yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Business Segments - The motorcycle business saw a strong performance with domestic sales of 7,000 units and exports of 10,000 units in early 2025, marking increases of 18.7% and 42.4% respectively [2]. - The ATV segment also performed well, with sales of 25,000 units in early 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29% [2][3]. Product Development - The company launched several new models in the motorcycle segment, contributing to a total of 287,000 units sold in 2024, generating revenue of 6.04 billion yuan [3]. - The ATV segment's revenue reached 7.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on high-end products driving growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 3.5 billion yuan in a new production base in Zhejiang, aiming for an annual capacity of 3 million units, which will support its growth strategy [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19.11 billion yuan, 23.19 billion yuan, and 27.91 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.74 billion yuan, 2.16 billion yuan, and 2.63 billion yuan [4][5].

万华化学（600309.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 盈利水平承压，年度销量稳步增长 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 14 日，万华化学发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报 告。2024 年实现销售收入 1820.69 亿元，同比增长 3.83%，实现归母净利润 130.33 亿元，同比-22.49%，实现扣非归母净利润 133.59 亿元，同比-18.74%。 2025 年一季度实现销售收入 430.68 亿元，同比-6.70%，环比+24.96%；实现 扣非归母净利润 30.40 亿元，同比-26.33%，环比 25.07%。 ➢ 2024 年产品销量保持较高增速，25Q1 销量环比有所下滑。聚氨酯、石化、 精细化学品及新材料三大板块产销量保持稳步增长。其中，聚氨酯系列产品 2024 年实现销量 564 万吨万吨，同比+15.34%，石化系列产品实现销量 547 万吨， 同比+15.89；精细化学品及新材料实现销量 204 万吨，同比+27.67%。2025 年 Q1，聚氨酯系列产品实现销量 145 万吨，同比+8.09%，环比-5.84%； ...

万华化学（600309.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 盈利水平承压，年度销量稳步增长 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 14 日，万华化学发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报 告。2024 年实现销售收入 1820.69 亿元，同比增长 3.83%，实现归母净利润 130.33 亿元，同比-22.49%，实现扣非归母净利润 133.59 亿元，同比-18.74%。 2025 年一季度实现销售收入 430.68 亿元，同比-6.70%，环比+24.96%；实现 扣非归母净利润 30.40 亿元，同比-26.33%，环比 25.07%。 ➢ 2024 年产品销量保持较高增速，25Q1 销量环比有所下滑。聚氨酯、石化、 精细化学品及新材料三大板块产销量保持稳步增长。其中，聚氨酯系列产品 2024 年实现销量 564 万吨万吨，同比+15.34%，石化系列产品实现销量 547 万吨， 同比+15.89；精细化学品及新材料实现销量 204 万吨，同比+27.67%。2025 年 Q1，聚氨酯系列产品实现销量 145 万吨，同比+8.09%，环比-5.84%； ...