Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Maximized Factor Exposure Portfolio (MFE) **Model Construction Idea**: The MFE portfolio is designed to test the effectiveness of single factors under real-world constraints, such as industry exposure, style exposure, stock weight limits, and turnover rate. This approach ensures that factors deemed "effective" can genuinely contribute to return prediction in the final portfolio[39][40]. **Model Construction Process**: The MFE portfolio is constructed using the following optimization model: $ \begin{array}{ll} max & f^{T} w \\ s.t. & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & \mathbf{0} \leq w \leq l \\ & \mathbf{1}^{T} w = 1 \end{array} $ - **Objective Function**: Maximize single-factor exposure, where \( f \) represents factor values, \( f^{T}w \) is the weighted exposure of the portfolio to the factor, and \( w \) is the stock weight vector. - **Constraints**: 1. **Style Exposure**: \( X \) is the factor exposure matrix for stocks, \( w_b \) is the benchmark weight vector, and \( s_l, s_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for style factor exposure. 2. **Industry Exposure**: \( H \) is the industry exposure matrix, where \( H_{ij} = 1 \) if stock \( i \) belongs to industry \( j \), and \( h_l, h_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for industry deviation. 3. **Stock Deviation**: \( w_l, w_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for individual stock deviations from the benchmark. 4. **Constituent Weight**: \( B_b \) is a 0-1 vector indicating whether a stock is a benchmark constituent, and \( b_l, b_h \) are the lower and upper bounds for constituent weights. 5. **No Short Selling**: Ensures non-negative weights and limits individual stock weights to \( l \). 6. **Full Investment**: Ensures the portfolio is fully invested with \( \mathbf{1}^{T}w = 1 \)[39][40][41]. **Model Evaluation**: The MFE portfolio effectively tests factor performance under realistic constraints, making it a robust tool for evaluating factor predictability in practical scenarios[39][40]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of actual quarterly net profit from expected profit, standardized by the standard deviation of expected profit. This factor captures earnings surprises[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ SUE = \frac{\text{Actual Quarterly Net Profit} - \text{Expected Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Expected Net Profit}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: SUE is a growth-related factor and has shown strong performance in certain market conditions, particularly in capturing earnings surprises[17]. - **Factor Name**: One-Year Momentum **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the momentum of stock prices over the past year, excluding the most recent month, to avoid short-term reversals[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{One-Year Momentum} = \text{Cumulative Return Over the Past Year (Excluding the Last Month)} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is widely used in momentum strategies and has demonstrated consistent performance in various market environments[17]. - **Factor Name**: Three-Month Earnings Revision **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the net number of analyst upgrades versus downgrades over the past three months, normalized by the total number of analysts covering the stock[17]. **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Three-Month Earnings Revision} = \frac{\text{Number of Upgrades} - \text{Number of Downgrades}}{\text{Total Number of Analysts}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: This factor reflects changes in market sentiment and has shown strong predictive power for short-term stock performance[17]. --- Backtesting Results of Models - **MFE Portfolio Performance**: - **CSI 300 Index**: Weekly excess return: -0.14%; YTD excess return: 3.07%[5][14]. - **CSI 500 Index**: Weekly excess return: -0.27%; YTD excess return: -0.57%[5][14]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: Weekly excess return: -0.69%; YTD excess return: 3.24%[5][14]. - **CSI A500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.12%; YTD excess return: 3.43%[5][14]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors - **Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)**: - **CSI 300 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.31%; Monthly excess return: -0.50%; YTD excess return: 0.16%[19]. - **CSI 500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.77%; Monthly excess return: -0.02%; YTD excess return: 0.11%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.31%; Monthly excess return: 0.40%; YTD excess return: -1.04%[23]. - **CSI A500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.65%; Monthly excess return: -0.68%; YTD excess return: 0.46%[25]. - **One-Year Momentum**: - **CSI 300 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.54%; Monthly excess return: 0.74%; YTD excess return: 0.36%[19]. - **CSI 500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.08%; Monthly excess return: -0.56%; YTD excess return: -1.95%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: Weekly excess return: -0.33%; Monthly excess return: -0.12%; YTD excess return: 1.52%[23]. - **CSI A500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.66%; Monthly excess return: -0.96%; YTD excess return: -1.32%[25]. - **Three-Month Earnings Revision**: - **CSI 300 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.19%; Monthly excess return: -0.47%; YTD excess return: -0.04%[19]. - **CSI 500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 1.02%; Monthly excess return: 2.06%; YTD excess return: 0.80%[21]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.31%; Monthly excess return: 2.78%; YTD excess return: 3.88%[23]. - **CSI A500 Index**: Weekly excess return: 0.02%; Monthly excess return: 0.53%; YTD excess return: 0.56%[25].

Inflation Data Overview - The January CPI in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The month-on-month CPI increase was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.5%, consistent with market expectations, while month-on-month it increased by 0.3%[3] Sector Contributions - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy CPI year-on-year dropping from 2.1% to -0.3%, primarily due to a 7.5% decrease in gasoline prices[12] - Food CPI year-on-year increased by 2.9%, while month-on-month it decreased from 0.6% to 0.4%[3] - Core goods saw a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, down from 1.4%, largely influenced by a decline in used car prices[12] Market Implications - The overall inflation data suggests a moderate inflation environment, which may stabilize market expectations but does not provide a decisive basis for a shift in monetary policy[13] - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased slightly, but the overall sentiment remains cautious regarding immediate policy changes[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the year, with a baseline expectation of 1-2 adjustments[5] Economic Balance - The current macroeconomic environment reflects a balance between cooling inflation and stable employment, which may support market stability[13] - Despite the easing inflation, core service inflation, particularly in housing, continues to exert upward pressure on price levels, indicating that inflation is more of a "marginal easing" rather than a rapid decline[17]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.0%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by over 1% each, driven by concerns over AI's disruptive impact on traditional business models[9][10]. - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,033, down 0.86% for the day, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.65%[3]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong faced pressure, with Meituan and NetEase both declining over 4%, and Tencent and Baidu dropping more than 2%[9]. - The electric equipment sector showed strong performance, with Harbin Electric rising by 13.73% after forecasting a 57.2% increase in net profit for 2025[9]. - AI application stocks surged, with Zhizhu rising by 28.68% due to strong market demand and a price adjustment announcement[9]. Economic Indicators - The heavy machinery sector continued its upward trend, with sales of excavators in January 2026 increasing by 49.5% year-on-year, driven by both domestic and export demand[9]. - Consumer stocks showed weakness, with notable declines in companies like Jiumaojiu and Budweiser Asia, which reported a 6.0% drop in total sales for the fiscal year 2025[9]. Global Market Trends - Concerns about AI's impact on the labor market have affected real estate demand, leading to declines in commercial real estate stocks like CBRE and SL Green Realty[10]. - Defensive stocks such as Walmart and Coca-Cola recorded positive returns, indicating a shift towards safer investments amid rising market volatility[13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [10][11] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of mobile games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the online gaming business generated 21.3 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 3 percentage points [10][11] - The total operating expense ratio was 34%, with a sales expense ratio of 14%, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [11] Game Development and AI Impact - The company is focusing on integrating AI tools to enhance creative content, with a shift in the core barriers to entry for commercial games towards integration capabilities [3][18] - Upcoming game releases include "遗忘之海" and "无限大," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [23] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.6 billion, 44.7 billion, and 48 billion yuan respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 5%, 4%, and 0% [23][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted profit for the second half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 39.3 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year. The social entertainment revenue decreased by 17%, but the decline has narrowed [1][8]. - The gross margin for the second half of 2025 was 35%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimization in music copyright costs. However, it decreased by 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to a decline in high-margin online music business revenue [1][8]. - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026 to enhance user engagement and expects that investments in high-quality content will not negatively impact profit margins [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 39.3 billion yuan, with online music revenue at 30.2 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year. Subscription revenue was 25.8 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, with a 15% growth in subscription users [2][14]. - The adjusted profit for the second half of 2025 was 9.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year. The company has a cash reserve of over 13 billion yuan and is considering stock buybacks [1][8]. - The company forecasts adjusted profits of 22.2 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan, and 27.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a downward adjustment of 6%, 12%, and 18% [2][17]. Market Trends - The online music business is experiencing a slowdown in growth, while the decline in social entertainment revenue has narrowed significantly from 43% in the first half of 2025 to 17% in the second half [2][16]. - The company is focusing on attracting younger users and developing original content to differentiate itself in the market [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the market in Q4 2025, with the overall sector down by 9.3% compared to a slight decline of 0.2% in the CSI 300 index. Notably, the pharmaceutical commercial segment showed a positive performance with a 5.3% increase, while other segments like medical services and biological products experienced significant declines [4][8] - The total net asset value of pharmaceutical funds decreased to 358.4 billion yuan, a 9.0% decline quarter-on-quarter. This marks the first time since 2019 that passive pharmaceutical funds (181.8 billion yuan) surpassed active funds (176.5 billion yuan) [4][14] - The overall pharmaceutical holdings across all funds dropped to 7.97%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points. Active pharmaceutical funds maintained a high concentration with a holding ratio of 97.45% [23] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In Q4 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 9.3%. The chemical pharmaceuticals segment fell by 9.6%, biological products by 12.4%, and medical devices by 10.6% [8] 2. Pharmaceutical Fund Size - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds was 358.4 billion yuan, down 9.0% from the previous quarter. Active funds accounted for 176.5 billion yuan, a 14.6% decrease, while passive funds reached 181.8 billion yuan, down 2.8% [14] 3. Pharmaceutical Holdings Ratio - The pharmaceutical holdings ratio for all funds was 7.97%, down 1.71 percentage points. Active pharmaceutical funds had a holding ratio of 97.08%, while passive funds had 97.83% [23] 4. Holdings Structure Analysis - The highest sub-sector holding in Q4 2025 was chemical preparations at 37.5%, followed by other biological products at 20.8%. The largest increases in holdings were seen in traditional Chinese medicine (+0.98 percentage points) and chemical preparations (+0.62 percentage points) [29] 5. Additions and Reductions in Holdings - The top three pharmaceutical stocks by the number of funds holding them were Heng Rui Medicine (498 funds), WuXi AppTec (408 funds), and Mindray Medical (204 funds). Notably, Heng Rui Medicine saw a reduction of 236 funds, while Ying En Biological-B experienced an increase of 47 funds [84][88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [3] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in January, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 17.94%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [4][22] - The number of game approvals remains high, with 177 domestic games and 5 imported games approved in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [4][31] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the gaming market, projecting a revenue of CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost box office revenues, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant interest [66][72] Summary by Sections 1. Media Sector Market Review - In January, the media sector ranked second among 31 sectors, with a TTM-PE of 49.9x, placing it in the 98.8th percentile over the past five years [22][27] 2. Gaming - The report notes a sustained high level of game approvals, with 182 game licenses issued in January 2026, marking a 33.8% year-on-year increase [31] - The gaming market is projected to generate CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, with mobile and client games expected to see revenues of CNY 257.1 billion and CNY 78.2 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [35][41] 3. Film and Television - January's total box office was CNY 1.964 billion, down 69.2% year-on-year, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The Spring Festival is anticipated to drive box office recovery, with a nine-day holiday expected to boost ticket sales [66][67] 4. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the rapid development of AI applications, particularly with the introduction of Seedance 2.0, which enhances video generation capabilities [86][100] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is expected to intensify, with major players launching promotional campaigns [6][86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [1][10] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] - AI tools are expected to lower production costs in gaming, but the integration of AI with complex game systems requires deep design and operational experience, creating a barrier for new entrants [3][18] - The company anticipates a rise in subscription revenue for its music service, with a projected increase in user growth and average revenue per user (ARPPU) in 2026 [4][20] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts adjusted net profits of 40.6 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 48 billion yuan in 2027, with slight downward adjustments of 5% and 4% for the first two years [5][23] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 112.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7% [5][28] - The company expects a gross margin of 64% for 2025, with an EBIT margin of 32% [28]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 证券研究报告 值得关注的是，今年 1 月社融结构与去年同期高度相似，均为总量强劲、票据压降、直接融资活跃的组合。 而去年在超预期的"开门红"之后，后续月份持续走弱，反映出 1 月数据易受银行开门红冲量、政策靠前 发力等非内生因素扰动。因此，尽管当前数据释放积极信号，但单月表现尚不足以确认趋势性拐点，后续 仍需观察 2—3 月数据的可持续性。 展望后续，1 月金融 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 图1：金融数据分项一览 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 结论：1 月金融数据呈现总量强劲、结构分化的特征。新增社融环比多增 5.01 万亿元，高于季节性水平， 绝对金额创历史新高。受去年同期高基数影响，社融同比增速小幅回落至 8.2%。信贷方面，总量同比延 续少增，但结构持续改善。企业端票据融资同比明显多减，短贷与中长贷结构优化；居民端释放积极信号， ...