2025 年 04 月 29 日 宏观研究团队 入境经济或提振 2025 年 GDP 0.2 个百分点 ——兼评 3 月企业利润数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：4 月 26 日，商务部等 6 部门印发《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入 境消费的通知》，下调离境退税起退点至 200 元，现金退税限额上调至 2 万元。 入境经济或提振 2025 年 GDP 约 0.2 个百分点 1、我国入境经济占 GDP 比重有较大提升空间，2025 年或提振 GDP 约 0.2 个百 分点。纵向来看，2015-2019 年我国入境旅游收入占 GDP 比重稳定在 0.9-1.0 个 百分点，2024 年入境旅游稳步向疫前水平修复，占 GDP 比重回升 0.2 个百分点 至 0.5%，收入、游客数量、人均支出分别为 942 亿美元、1.3 亿人、725 美元， 较 2019 年仍有 20%、11%、28%的修复空间。横向来看，我们根据世界银行数 据测算，2019 年全球、OEC ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue of 64.52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.28 billion yuan, up 60.92% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory driven by new game launches and AI-related business developments [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to the maturity of core game products and adjustments in marketing strategies [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 64.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.22%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 14.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 60.92% increase [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 13.60 billion yuan, 15.03 billion yuan, and 16.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.77, and 0.85 yuan [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 62.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 18.6% [8][9] Game Development and AI Integration - The company has launched two new games overseas, "Stellar Sanctuary" and "Next Agers," which are currently in the commercialization testing phase. These games are expected to enhance user engagement and revenue streams [5] - The AI/ICT operations management business generated 14.78 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.53% [6] - The integration of AI into products and services is becoming a significant growth engine for the company, with ongoing development of various industry solutions [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 46.94% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 3.136 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 341.01%, totaling 595 million yuan. The growth was driven by AIoT computing platforms such as RK3588, RK356X, and RV11 series [5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 885 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 62.95%, with a gross margin reaching a historical high of 40.95% [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 4.224 billion yuan, 5.486 billion yuan, and 7.018 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 910 million yuan, 1.196 billion yuan, and 1.531 billion yuan for the same years [5] - The company maintains a strong focus on R&D, with expenses of 569 million yuan in 2024, consistently investing around 20% of its revenue in R&D over the past decade [6] - The rapid development of edge AIoT presents new opportunities, particularly in automotive electronics and robotics, with multiple projects already in progress [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 37.6% and a net margin of 19.0%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 16.8% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 73, 56, and 44 respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook [5][9] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 64.465 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 64.433 billion yuan [1]

机械设备/专用设备 浩洋股份（300833.SZ） 贸易摩擦下短期业绩承压，收购 SGM 品牌矩阵扩张 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 31.83 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 94.58/28.35 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 25.87 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 87.64 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 浩洋股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q2 业绩承压，期待下半年收入 业绩双改善—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 风险提示：海外市场需求不及预期、产能爬坡不及预期、地缘政治风险。 财务摘要和估值指标 | 吕明（分析师） | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | 蒋奕峰（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn ...

医药生物/化学制药 苑东生物（688513.SH） 麻醉业务持续进阶，创新与出海驱动成长 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 33.59 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 62.40/28.11 | | 总市值(亿元) | 59.30 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 59.30 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.77 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.77 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 106.41 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 苑东生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩表现亮眼，麻醉业务持续进阶 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.27 《深耕麻醉镇痛领域，积极拓展海外 市场—公司首次覆盖报告》-2024.9.24 余汝意（分析师） 刘艺（联系人） yuruyi@kysec.cn liuyi1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070022 麻醉业务持续进阶，创新与出海驱动成长，维持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 2024 revenue of 7.36 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.69%. The net profit for the same year reached 1.103 billion yuan, a significant increase of 584.21% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.909 billion yuan, up 17.32% year-over-year and 11.88% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 235 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.57% [4][5] - The company is benefiting from the recovery in downstream market demand, with significant growth in revenue and sales across various sectors including consumer electronics, networking, and computing. The company is also poised to benefit from trends in AI and electric vehicle intelligence [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.478 billion yuan in 2025 and 11.664 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.692 billion yuan and 2.155 billion yuan respectively. The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 44 and 35 times respectively [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 41.2% in 2025 and 41.3% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to be 17.9% and 18.5% for the same years [7][9] - The company’s ROE is expected to rise to 9.2% in 2025 and 10.5% in 2026, indicating improved profitability [7][9]

电子/半导体 恒玄科技（688608.SH） 乘端侧 AI 之东风，业绩创单季度历史新高 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 401.60 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 424.00/118.64 | | 总市值(亿元) | 482.10 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 482.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 126.84 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒玄科技 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 业绩高成长，看好 2800 放 量带来的成长性—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.26 《2024H1 业绩高速增长，新产品放量 带来充足成长性—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.28 《2024H1 业绩预计同比高增，看好需 求恢复+产品放量—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.7.17 陈蓉芳（分析师） 陈瑜熙（ ...

股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 汇宇制药 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《聚焦肿瘤领域，出海+创新驱动新增 长—公司首次覆盖报告》-2025.2.26 医药生物/化学制药 汇宇制药（688553.SH） 业绩表现亮眼，创新+出海持续推进 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 14.10 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.64/9.79 | | 总市值(亿元) | 59.73 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 48.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.24 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.44 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 92.16 | ——公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | liuyi1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790124070022 | 业绩 ...

商贸零售/互联网电商 赛维时代（301381.SZ） 库存因素短期拖累利润，服饰品类增长维持靓丽 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 20.23 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 33.18/16.49 | | 总市值(亿元) | 80.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 38.90 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.92 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 138.2 | 股价走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 赛维时代 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 主营业务维持高增，业绩端阶段性承压 《品牌孵化和发展顺利，服饰配饰品 类增长亮眼—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.24 《跨境电商服饰赛道龙头，技术驱动 品牌扬帆出海—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.8.21 黄泽鹏（分析师） 吕明（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lvming ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The report highlights the cost advantages of natural soda ash becoming apparent, and it is optimistic about the growth potential of the company's new projects [6][8] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.17% year-on-year to 2.07 billion yuan [6][10] - The report anticipates that with the completion of the Alashan Phase II project and the 1.2 million tons of sodium bicarbonate project, the company is expected to further expand its growth space [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 5.75 million tons of soda ash, a year-on-year increase of 123.88% [7] - The average cost of soda ash for the company in 2024 was 741 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12.31% year-on-year [7] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.70 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][10] Project Development - As of the end of 2024, the Alashan natural soda project Phase II had an accumulated investment of 1.406 billion yuan, with a project progress of 25%, expected to be completed by December 2025 [8] - The company plans to build a 1.2 million tons sodium bicarbonate project, with a total investment of 3.56 billion yuan, projected to have a pre-tax internal rate of return of 22.15% [8]