传媒/游戏Ⅱ 完美世界（002624.SZ） 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/2/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 19.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 20.35/10.20 | | 总市值(亿元) | 379.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 357.69 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 18.28 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 146.03 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 完美世界 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中报业绩大增，看好新游上线及影 视修复驱动成长 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.8.27 《预计 2025H1 同比大幅扭亏，关注 《异环》上线进展—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.7.17 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》三测反响热烈，上线或驱动业绩大幅增长，维持"买入"评级 《异环》是公司基 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to classify multi-asset fund advisory products based on three dimensions: risk preference, concentration, and turnover rate, to better understand their risk-return characteristics and performance differentiation[3][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Risk Preference**: Classified based on the proportion of income-generating assets and growth assets in the portfolio. If income-generating assets exceed 70%, it is classified as debt-oriented; if growth assets exceed 70%, it is equity-oriented; otherwise, it is balanced[34] - **Concentration**: Measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), calculated as $ \sum_{i} w_{i}^{2} $, where $w_{i}$ represents the weight of each asset class. Thresholds are set as follows: HHI > 0.5 is high concentration, HHI < 0.25 is low concentration, and values in between are medium concentration[34] - **Turnover Rate**: Measures the timing adjustment ability of multi-asset fund advisory products at the asset class level. Annualized one-sided turnover rate is used, with thresholds defined as follows: turnover rate > 2 is high turnover, < 1 is low turnover, and values in between are medium turnover[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the heterogeneity in multi-asset fund advisory products and provides insights into their risk-return characteristics and strategic differences[3][34] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Risk Preference**: - Equity-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 18.5%, 2024 annualized return 10.5%, 2023 annualized return -1.0%[37][39] - Debt-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 7.4%, 2024 annualized return 5.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - Balanced products: 2025 annualized return 15.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return -4.7%[37][39] - **Concentration**: - Low concentration (HHI < 0.25): 2025 annualized return 17.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.2%, 2023 annualized return 0.4%[37][39] - Medium concentration (0.25 ≤ HHI ≤ 0.5): 2025 annualized return 13.0%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return -4.0%[37][39] - High concentration (HHI > 0.5): 2025 annualized return 7.8%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - **Turnover Rate**: - Low turnover (< 1): 2025 annualized return 15.6%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return 1.7%[37][39] - Medium turnover (1 ≤ turnover ≤ 2): 2025 annualized return 10.6%, 2024 annualized return 7.3%, 2023 annualized return 0.5%[37][39] - High turnover (> 2): 2025 annualized return 11.2%, 2024 annualized return 7.6%, 2023 annualized return -5.4%[37][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Brinson Attribution Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: The model decomposes the excess return of multi-asset fund advisory products into two components: allocation return and selection return, to evaluate the sources of excess returns[42][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Allocation Effect**: Measures the timing and allocation ability of fund managers across major asset classes. The formula is: $$ R_{allocation} = \sum_{i} (w_{i}^{actual} - w_{i}^{benchmark}) \times r_{i}^{asset} $$ where $w_{i}^{actual}$ is the actual weight of asset $i$, $w_{i}^{benchmark}$ is the benchmark weight, and $r_{i}^{asset}$ is the return of asset $i$[42][46] - **Selection Effect**: Reflects the ability to select superior funds within each asset class. The formula is: $$ R_{selection} = R_{excess} - R_{allocation} $$ where $R_{excess}$ is the total excess return relative to the benchmark[42][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The model provides a clear decomposition of excess returns, helping to identify whether returns are driven by strategic asset allocation or fund selection[42][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Brinson Attribution Model - **Equity-Oriented Products**: - Example: "Guotai Global Allocation" achieved 2025 allocation return of 10.5% and selection return of 6.3%[48][49] - Example: "招商海外掘金" achieved 2025 allocation return of -0.8% and selection return of 14.5%[48][49] - **Debt-Oriented Products**: - Example: "嘉实百灵全天候策略" achieved 2025 allocation return of 3.8% and selection return of 0.5%[56][58] - Example: "全球固收+" achieved 2025 allocation return of 2.6% and selection return of 1.3%[56][58] - **Balanced Products**: - Example: "时光旅行者" achieved 2025 allocation return of 15.6% and selection return of -10.3%[65][66] - Example: "绘盈长投计划" achieved 2023 allocation return of 10.1%, providing a strong safety net during a bear market[65][66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly improve its performance in 2025, with a projected net profit of 7.2-7.6 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - The upcoming game "异环" (Yihuan) has received positive feedback during its third test phase, with over 20 million official reservations and a high rating of 8.9 on TapTap, indicating strong market interest [3] - The company anticipates that the launch of "异环" will drive substantial revenue growth, potentially exceeding the performance of its previous title "幻塔" (Huan Ta) [3] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 379.65 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 357.69 billion yuan [1] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 6.836 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 2.818 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the net profit margin to 28.0% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2025 to 1.45 yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 66.0% in 2026, up from 59.1% in 2025 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes agricultural modernization with quantifiable goals and actionable measures, focusing on quality, efficiency, and ecological sustainability [3][13] - The pig price is under pressure post-festival due to supply release and demand weakening, with the average price of pigs at 12.06 CNY/kg as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 CNY/kg [4][37] - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.65 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 1.92% during the week of February 2-6, 2026 [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agricultural sector index decreased by 1.92%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, indicating a relative underperformance of the agricultural sector [6][26] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye (+12.07%), Boen Group (+5.60%), and Shengnong Development (+4.88%) led the gains in the sector [6][32] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.14 CNY/kg, down 1.30% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased by 2.00% to 25.54 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of beef was 66.09 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% [47] - Prices for other agricultural products such as grass carp and shrimp saw increases of 1.27% and 2.94%, respectively [49][35] Key News - The Central Government has reinforced comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and promoted dairy consumption through various measures [5][33] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued implementation opinions to ensure food security and promote agricultural modernization [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple factors including policy support, trading dynamics, fundamental improvements, and external catalysts, indicating clear investment value [3][9] - The food and beverage index increased by 4.3% from February 2 to February 6, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.6 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor, soft drinks, and beer leading the performance [9][11] - The liquor industry is entering a new development cycle, with Guizhou Moutai's market-oriented reforms marking a significant phase, and the pricing system gradually returning to a supply-demand driven model [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 4.3%, ranking first among 28 sectors, with liquor (+5.3%), soft drinks (+4.7%), and beer (+4.5%) showing relative strength [11][12] - Individual stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Hai Xin Food, and Ri Chen Co. saw significant gains, while *ST Yedao, *ST Chuntian, and Li Ziyuan experienced declines [11][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of whole milk powder at $3,614 per ton, down 13.3% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices at 3.04 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year [15][31] - The price of pork is down 20.1% year-on-year, with live pig prices at 12.2 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a broader trend of price adjustments in the sector [21][24] Liquor Industry News - Some distributors of Moutai have sold out their first batch of flying Moutai quotas for March, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [36] - The Qingdao Beer production base has commenced operations, aiming to produce high-end products and achieve an annual output value of approximately 1 billion yuan [36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading liquor stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as elastic stocks like Shede Liquor and benefiting stocks like Jiu Gui Liquor [10] - In the consumer goods sector, three main lines are suggested: the snack sector, dairy products, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [10][43]

北交所策略专题报告 从亚马逊 CAPEX 指引看产业链机遇，关注北交所光器件核心环节 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 | 诸海滨（分析师） | 余中天（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhuhaibin@kysec.cn | yuzhongtian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080007 | 证书编号：S0790525050003 | 亚马逊年报高 CAPEX 彰显设施建设需求，北证、新三板光通信标的预期受益 2025 年度报告显示 2024、2025 年亚马逊现金资本开支达到 777 亿、1283 亿美元， 主要用于科技设施的建设方面以及履约网络的建设。2026 年亚马逊预计两大方 面均会产生增长。现阶段北交所内光通信器件相关的标的共有 5 家，新三板内相 关标的 3 家，包含蘅东光、万源通、凯德石英、则成电子、晶赛科技、云岭光电、 鑫宇科技、宇特光电。蘅东光、万源通、云岭光电等标的预期受益。蘅东光 （920045.BJ）主要业务板块包括无源光纤布线、无源内连光器件及相关配套业 务三大板块。万源通（920060.BJ）光模块 PCB 方向目前配合客户进行了光模 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.058 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 237 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.02 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.6, 16.3, and 14.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook driven by the company's generic drug performance and the potential of innovative drug DYX116 [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Expansion and Sales Growth - The company has focused on market expansion, with steady sales growth in products such as "复瑞彤" and "波开清". The sales of other products like 卡格列净片 and 恩格列净片 have also seen rapid growth, contributing positively to revenue [3] - The company has won bids for several products in the tenth batch of centralized procurement, which will enhance sales starting from March 2025 [3] Research and Development - In 2025, the company plans to invest 120.27 million yuan in R&D, a 2.83% increase year-on-year. It has obtained registration approvals for 8 drug varieties and is advancing the clinical trials for innovative drug DYX116 [4] - The company continues to implement a "generic-innovation combination" strategy in its R&D efforts, with multiple projects progressing as planned [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The financial projections indicate a revenue increase to 1.19 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.36 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 256 million yuan and 281 million yuan respectively [6][9] - Key financial metrics include a gross margin of 85.0% and a net margin of 22.4% for 2025, showcasing strong profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Energy is maintained at "Outperform" [1][3] Core Views - Changhong Energy is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.485 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.17%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 249 million yuan, up 26.06% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity in lithium batteries, with utilization rates for the 21700 and 18650 production lines reaching 80% and 50% respectively [4] - The company is also diversifying into new fields such as semi-solid batteries, humanoid robots, and drones, with some clients already in the sample delivery stage [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected revenue is 4.482 billion yuan, with a net profit of 249 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.37 yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.7, 18.8, and 15.4 respectively [3][7] - The gross margin is expected to be 16.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 5.5% [10]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the bull market is still ongoing, encouraging confidence while suggesting a reduction in the slope expectation of the market, indicating that the lower limit of the market is continuously rising [2][12] - The report highlights that over 20% of companies in six industries, including utilities, non-ferrous metals, and automotive, are expected to see strong profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [3][21] - The report identifies three categories of companies to focus on: those with accelerating profit growth, those experiencing a turnaround from negative to positive profits, and those with profit growth transitioning from negative to positive [4][26] Group 2 - The report outlines a "net profit gap" strategy that has significantly outperformed the market since 2025, with two portfolios achieving returns over 100%, particularly in the coal and non-ferrous metals sectors [5][29] - The top five industries with the highest proportion of stocks showing net profit gaps include coal (8.1%), non-ferrous metals (5.1%), and communications (4.8%), indicating strong performance potential in these areas [5][32] - The report suggests that the A-share market is currently in a relatively safe environment, with room for expansion in the securities ratio, particularly in the TMT sector, which is expected to maintain its profitability advantage [6][34] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on industries that are benefiting from PPI improvements and broad anti-involution trends, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and power generation [6][35] - It also suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting opportunities in AI applications, military industry, and core AI hardware [6][35] - The report indicates that the overall annual profit forecast for A-share companies shows a continuous improvement, with 52.3% of companies expected to report profit growth [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company focuses on automotive lighting systems and continuously explores new automotive electronic business segments, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.76% in revenue from 2013 to 2024, with a revenue of 488 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.51% [2][35] - The automotive industry in China shows steady growth, with production and sales reaching 31.28 million and 31.44 million vehicles in 2024, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and 4.5% [3][56] - The company has a strong technological foundation in automotive lighting systems and is expanding into high-growth areas such as electronic control systems and energy management systems, with a projected increase in revenue of 55.8 million yuan from new projects [4][28] Summary by Sections 1. Company Focus and Business Expansion - The company is positioned as a manufacturer of automotive electronic components, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of automotive lighting systems, electronic control systems, and energy management systems [2][39] - The company has successfully entered the electronic control system sector with the EPS controller and is set to launch the CDU power distribution assembly in 2024 [13][28] 2. Market Potential in the Automotive Industry - China's automotive production and sales have been the highest globally for 16 consecutive years, with significant growth potential in the automotive electronic components market [3][56] - The market for automotive lighting systems is expected to grow from 84.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 101.4 billion yuan in 2025, with the energy management system market projected to reach 28.5 billion yuan in China by 2025 [3][56] 3. Technological Leadership and Product Development - The company has accumulated extensive experience in LED technology since its establishment in 1991 and has become a key supplier for major automotive brands [4][15] - The company has developed a range of products, including LED headlight modules, driving controllers, and the CDU, which are positioned to meet the growing demands of the automotive market [4][39] 4. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has shown a steady increase in revenue, with a CAGR of 26.76% from 2013 to 2024, and a net profit of 51.79 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.41% [2][35] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is 25.1X, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [4][28]