行 农林牧渔 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《肥猪供给偏紧年前猪价上行，宠物 食品出口环比改善 —行业周报》- 2025.12.28 《年前猪价存在供需双重支撑，蛋鸡 存栏高位淘鸡延续 —行业周报》- 2025.12.21 《腌腊渐入旺季支撑猪价上行，犊牛 价格上行彰显牛周期景气—行业周 报》-2025.12.14 10 牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利 多国内牛价 ——行业周报 chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 周观察：牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利多国内牛价 供需双驱驱动年前猪价中枢上移，据涌益咨询，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全国 生猪均价 12.78 元/公斤，周环比+1.20 元/公斤，同比-3.01 元/公斤。截至 ...

电力设备/电池 天赐材料（002709.SZ） 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 46.33 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 49.78/15.37 | | 总市值(亿元) | 942.30 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 697.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.34 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 15.04 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 480.32 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 天赐材料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《六氟磷酸锂周期反转，卡位固态电 池核心材料—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.12.15 殷晟路（分析师） 王嘉懿（分析师） yinshenglu@kysec.cn wangjiayi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525060004 2025 年预计实现归母净利润 11-16 亿元，业绩超预期 公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告。2025 年预计实现归母净利 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing growth in domestic AI chip demand, with Kunlun Core initiating its Hong Kong IPO process, indicating a strong market potential for domestic AI solutions [5][15] - The upcoming listings of major AI model companies, such as MiniMax, are expected to attract significant investment interest, with MiniMax's projected fundraising between 3.83 to 4.19 billion HKD [21][24] - The report emphasizes the accelerating commercialization of Robotaxi services in China, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and supportive policies [7][42] Summary by Sections Internet - Kunlun Core has started its Hong Kong listing process, indicating a sustained growth in domestic computing power demand. The report recommends stocks such as Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Pinduoduo, with Tencent Holdings identified as a beneficiary [5][14][67] - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 4.3% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, outperforming other indices [14][16] AI - Major AI model stocks, including MiniMax, are set to list soon, with MiniMax's share price range between 151-165 HKD and an expected market capitalization of 46.12 to 50.40 billion HKD. The company has shown significant revenue growth, achieving 53.44 million USD in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a 175% year-on-year increase [21][24][24] - MiniMax's diverse revenue model includes subscription services, virtual goods, and online marketing services, indicating a robust business strategy [30][24] Smart Driving - The report notes that the L3 level of autonomous driving in China has received trial approval, marking a significant step towards commercialization. The Robotaxi market is expected to grow rapidly due to technological maturity and policy support [7][42][44] - Various business models for Robotaxi are emerging, including partnerships between manufacturers, autonomous driving companies, and ride-hailing services, which are expected to accelerate commercialization [44][49] Weekly Data Update - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.01% during the week, with significant gains in the media, automotive, and technology sectors [53][59]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant "siphon effect" of AI and the accelerated development of satellite internet, recommending a focus on the dual core themes of "AI + Satellite" and four key segments: "Optical + Liquid Cooling + Domestic Computing Power + Satellite" [5][15] - It highlights the expected growth in AI applications, particularly in voice and image recognition technologies, which will drive demand for smart computing modules and CDN services [7][17] - The report notes the increasing importance of satellite internet as a core component of 6G, driven by national policies emphasizing self-sufficiency and technological upgrades [8][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests actively positioning in multiple sub-sectors, focusing on "AI + Satellite" as the main investment themes for 2026 [5][15] 2. Key Segments for 2026 Segment One: Global AI Resonance - 2026 is projected to be the year of significant deployment for 1.6T optical modules, with advancements in silicon photonics technology expected to become mainstream [6][16] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling technologies, driven by the release of new computing power chips from major companies [6][16] Segment Two: AI Applications - The development of AI toys and applications is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for intelligent computing modules and CDN services [7][17] Segment Three: Satellite Internet Development - The report identifies four key areas of focus within the satellite internet sector: satellite manufacturing, launch, ground equipment, and operations, all of which are expected to benefit from increased demand and government support [8][18] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various segments, including optical network equipment, computing devices, and AI applications, highlighting potential beneficiaries in each category [19][20][26][27] 4. Market Review - The communication index experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 29 to December 31, 2025, ranking fourth among TMT sectors [28] 5. Communication Data Tracking - As of November 2025, China had a total of 4.83 million 5G base stations, with 5G mobile phone users reaching 1.193 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.06% [29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The significant rebound of PMI in December 2025 may be related to the policy intensification in October, and the policy has shown obvious effects [4][5]. - The replenishment of inventory may start, which is expected to drive economic recovery [6]. - The overall rhythm of the change in manufacturing PMI is similar to that in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. - The core of the policy is to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery", and after repeated disproving, the market will become optimistic [8]. - Regarding the bond market, the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Event Review - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (previous value: 49.2%), up 0.9 pct month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% (49.5%), up 0.7 pct month - on - month; the composite PMI was 50.7% (49.7%), up 1.0 pct month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly beyond seasonality and expectations, reaching a new high since April [4]. 3.2 Reasons for PMI Rebound - **Policy Intensification**: In October, the policy intensified with 50 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and 50 billion yuan of local debt balance limits. After the policy efforts, the PMI improved slightly in November and significantly in December [5]. - **Inventory Replenishment**: After continuous destocking from October to November, the raw material inventory was at a historical low in December, and inventory replenishment started, which may drive economic recovery [6]. - **Similar Historical Patterns**: The sudden rebound of PMI above 50% in December 2025 is similar to the situations in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. 3.3 Policy Logic - The policy aims to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery". In history, there were periods of economic decline, but the economy recovered after policy support, and the view was disproved. After repeated disproving, the market will form optimistic expectations [8]. 3.4 Bond Market View - **Fundamentals**: The view of "less - than - expected economic recovery" is disproved, and the wide - credit and wide - fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026 may accelerate the economic cycle recovery [9]. - **Monetary Policy**: If there is a wide - monetary policy, it may be a reduction opportunity, similar to the situation in 2025 [9]. - **Inflation**: Pay attention to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [9]. - **Funds Rate**: If inflation rises month - on - month continuously, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the yield of short - term bonds will rise [9]. - **Real Estate**: Real estate is not used as a means of stabilizing growth this time and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [9]. - **Bonds**: The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Barra Style Factors - **Model Name**: Barra Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The model tracks the performance of common style factors such as size, value, growth, and profitability in the market - **Construction Process**: The factors are calculated based on specific financial metrics. For example: - Size factor is based on market capitalization - Book-to-market ratio is used for the value factor - Growth factor is derived from growth-related metrics - Profitability factor is based on earnings expectations[3][13] - **Evaluation**: The model provides insights into the performance of different market styles, helping investors understand factor contributions to returns[3][13] Kaiyuan Behavioral Factors - **Model Name**: Kaiyuan Behavioral Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors are based on trading behaviors, aiming to capture alpha signals from microstructure patterns in the market - **Construction Process**: - **Ideal Reversal Factor**: Measures the reversal strength of trading days by analyzing the average transaction size. It identifies days with the strongest reversal attributes[4][13] - **Smart Money Factor**: Tracks institutional trading activity using minute-level price and volume data. It identifies "smart money" trades by sorting minute data based on a constructed indicator and calculating the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of these trades[4][40][42] - **APM Factor**: Measures the difference in trading behavior between morning and afternoon sessions. It uses regression analysis on overnight and afternoon returns to calculate residuals, which are then used to construct the factor[4][41][43][44] - **Ideal Amplitude Factor**: Captures the structural differences in stock price amplitude under high and low price states. It calculates the difference between the average amplitude of high-price and low-price days[4][46] - **Evaluation**: These factors are recognized for their ability to capture unique trading behavior patterns and provide alpha signals[4][13] Kaiyuan Behavioral Composite Factor - **Model Name**: Kaiyuan Behavioral Composite Factor - **Construction Idea**: Combines the above behavioral factors into a single composite factor to enhance performance - **Construction Process**: - Standardizes and winsorizes individual factors within industries - Uses the past 12 periods' ICIR values as weights to calculate the composite factor - Applies industry and market capitalization neutrality adjustments[30][34] - **Evaluation**: The composite factor demonstrates superior performance in small and mid-cap stock pools compared to large-cap pools[30][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models Barra Style Factors - **Size Factor**: Return of 1.06% in December 2025[3][13] - **Book-to-Market Ratio Factor**: Return of -0.18% in December 2025[3][13] - **Growth Factor**: Return of 0.20% in December 2025[3][13] - **Profitability Factor**: Return of 0.94% in December 2025[3][13] Kaiyuan Behavioral Factors - **Ideal Reversal Factor**: - IC: -0.049 - RankIC: -0.060 - IR: 2.42 - Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 77.8% - December 2025 Long-Short Return: 0.14% - 12-Month Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[5][14][17] - **Smart Money Factor**: - IC: -0.037 - RankIC: -0.061 - IR: 2.69 - Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 80.1% - December 2025 Long-Short Return: -0.24% - 12-Month Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 75.0%[5][19][22] - **APM Factor**: - IC: 0.028 - RankIC: 0.034 - IR: 2.25 - Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 76.2% - December 2025 Long-Short Return: 1.08% - 12-Month Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 41.7%[5][23][26] - **Ideal Amplitude Factor**: - IC: -0.053 - RankIC: -0.073 - IR: 2.99 - Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 83.0% - December 2025 Long-Short Return: -0.63% - 12-Month Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[5][26][29] Kaiyuan Behavioral Composite Factor - **Composite Factor**: - IC: 0.066 - RankIC: 0.093 - IR: 3.25 - Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 78.8% - December 2025 Long-Short Return: -0.04% - 12-Month Long-Short Monthly Win Rate: 58.3% - Annualized Return of Long-Short Portfolio: 8.09% - Sharpe Ratio: 2.56 - Monthly Win Rate: 77.4% - IR in Small and Mid-Cap Pools: 2.83 (China Securities 2000), 2.62 (China Securities 1000), 1.00 (China Securities 800)[5][30][34][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has passed its operational low point, with improvements in products, channels, costs, and expenditure. The net profit margin showed a quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 2025, and with the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, significant profit growth is expected in the first half of 2026. The report is optimistic about the potential of new products in Q4 and the opportunity to reverse the current challenges by leveraging channel reforms in supermarkets [4][5]. - The company is actively innovating its product line, developing a matrix of four major categories including health beans, flavored bean fruits, flavored nuts, and snacks. It is also embracing channel reforms by customizing products for different channels and investing in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to align with local preferences [5]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.1% in Q3 2025, showing significant improvement. Measures such as hedging on key raw materials like palm oil and a favorable pricing environment are expected to further enhance gross margins. The company is also refining its expenditure strategy, leading to improved sales and management expense ratios [6]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.4 billion, 3.3 billion (up 0.3 billion), and 4.0 billion (up 0.4 billion) from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year changes of -36.2%, +38.3%, and +22.0% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22.0, 15.9, and 13.1 for the respective years [4][8]. - The revenue forecast for the company is 1,848 million in 2023, 2,257 million in 2024, and 2,127.7 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4%, 22.2%, and -5.7% respectively. The gross margin is expected to be 35.2% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.3% [8][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing global debt levels, with public debt expected to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2024, accounting for approximately 93% of global GDP. In China, the government is the main driver of leverage, while corporate leverage is slowing down, and households are continuing to deleverage [12][13] - The asset scale of "green zone" banks has increased, with 94.6% of banks rated in the "green zone," indicating overall financial stability and risk control in the banking sector [4][18] - Stress tests conducted on 3,235 banks show that they have strong resilience against macroeconomic shocks, with an overall capital adequacy ratio of 16.64%. However, credit risk remains a significant concern, with non-performing loan rates projected to rise under severe stress scenarios [5][30] - The central bank is enhancing macro-prudential management to support the stable development of the real estate market, implementing various financial policies to mitigate risks and improve market activity [6][44] Summary by Sections 1. Government Leverage and Debt Resolution - Global debt levels have reached historical highs, with China's government increasing leverage while corporate leverage slows and households continue to deleverage. This has led to a divergence in credit demand, favoring corporate loans over retail loans [12][14] - The report indicates that the resolution of operational debts for financing platforms is becoming a key focus for the government, with significant reductions in the scale of these debts expected [13][14] 2. Banking Sector Ratings and Risk Management - The central bank rated 3,529 banks, with 94.6% in the "green zone," reflecting a trend of increasing asset scale among low-risk banks and a reduction in high-risk institutions [4][18] - The number of banks has decreased significantly due to mergers and regulatory actions, indicating a consolidation in the banking sector [20] 3. Stress Testing Results - Stress tests reveal that banks maintain a strong capital adequacy ratio under various adverse scenarios, with projected declines in capital adequacy under severe stress [5][30] - The sensitivity tests show that domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) have a stronger capacity to withstand asset quality deterioration compared to non-D-SIBs [37] 4. Macro-Prudential Management and Real Estate Support - The central bank is actively enhancing its macro-prudential management functions to prevent systemic financial risks, with a focus on supporting the real estate market through various financial policies [6][44] - Specific measures include optimizing mortgage policies and providing financial support for housing projects, which are expected to improve market activity [45][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has appreciated since November, with both onshore and offshore rates breaking 7 by December 30, 2025[3] - From November 29 to December 29, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated approximately 1.5% and 1.75% respectively, while the USD index fell about 1.74%[4] - The RMB is expected to maintain its position above 7, but the pace of appreciation may be gradual due to various economic factors[6] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - A weaker USD is a key catalyst for RMB appreciation, with the USD index expected to remain weak in the short term[6] - China's exports showed resilience in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in November, contributing to a cumulative trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months[5] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US is expected to influence capital flows positively, supporting RMB stability[7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The RMB's appreciation is likely to be a slow and oscillating process, with the potential for limited upward movement in the short term[8] - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the US economy and escalations in US tariff policies[8] - The overall outlook for the RMB remains positive, supported by stable economic relations between China and the US following recent diplomatic talks[7]