证券研究报告/行业研究 生物医药行业新旧动能切换，创新药前景光明 ——创新药行业动态追踪 投资要点 ➢ 人口老龄化深化，医疗和养老政策加码 中国人口老龄化趋势明显，2024 年，中国 60 岁以上老人数量达到 3.1亿， 占比高达 22.0%，未来老龄人口比例还将继续增加。随着老龄化趋势的加 深，如心血管疾病、糖尿病、恶性肿瘤、白内障、帕金森症和阿尔梅茨海默 症等慢性病和退行性疾病的发病率将会显著增加，为医疗产业带来更大的市 场机会。而内分泌和代谢性疾病、肿瘤、心脑血管疾病和神经系统疾病是医 疗企业的重点关注领域，上述领域的融资额位于行业前列，深受资本青睐。 有关医疗和养老的利好政策密集出台，中共中央办公厅，国务院办公厅印发 《提振消费专项行动方案》，指出2025年将提高城乡居民基础养老金和城乡 居民基本医疗保险财政补助标准，适当提高退休人员基本养老金。上述政策 利好医疗消费需求增长，为创新药带来更大市场空间。 ➢ 生物医药产业结构性升级，创新成为发展新动能 中国在研管线数量2014年来持续增加，据Pharmaprojects统计，2014年中 国在研管线数量为701个，至2024年已增至6,119个，复合增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have significant performance advantages, including vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, distributed electric propulsion, and the use of all-electric or hybrid power technologies. Compared to conventional helicopters, eVTOLs are more environmentally friendly, quieter, and have higher automation levels, resulting in lower operating costs and higher safety and reliability [1][10] - The central government's strategic focus on low-altitude economy, including the establishment of a dedicated low-altitude economic department, is expected to accelerate the certification and commercialization of eVTOLs. Recent developments include the issuance of the world's first type certificate, airworthiness certificate, and production certificate to EHang Intelligent, marking a significant milestone in the eVTOL industry [2][35] - The eVTOL market is projected to reach a scale of 107.91 billion yuan by 2030, with various application scenarios such as tourism, urban air mobility, emergency rescue, and firefighting contributing to this growth [3][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: eVTOL Development and Commercialization - eVTOLs are positioned as core vehicles for low-altitude development, with a strong potential for commercialization driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [8][32] - The eVTOL industry is characterized by diverse aircraft types and configurations, with composite wings and tilt-rotor designs being the main development lines [22][25] - The core subsystems of eVTOLs include airframe, avionics, flight control, energy, propulsion, and electrical systems, with battery and propulsion systems accounting for approximately 50% of the total cost [28][29] Section 2: Market Opportunities and Applications - eVTOLs can be categorized into surveillance, cargo, and passenger aircraft, each with distinct requirements for development, manufacturing, and certification [40] - The market space for eVTOLs is vast, with significant potential in passenger transport (urban air mobility, regional air transport) and cargo delivery, although the latter is expected to be limited primarily to industrial-grade drones [46][47] - The projected market size for eVTOLs by 2030 includes segments such as tourism (7.2 billion yuan), urban air mobility (70.4 billion yuan), emergency rescue (9.56 billion yuan), and firefighting (20.75 billion yuan) [47][48] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. WanFeng Aviation: A global leader in general aviation aircraft, with promising eVTOL developments 2. Wolong Electric: A domestic leader in electric motors, actively advancing eVTOL product development 3. Inboard: Focused on new energy vehicle power systems, starting with collaboration with EHang Intelligent 4. Zongshen Power: A leading private enterprise in small to medium-sized aviation power systems 5. CATL: A global leader in battery manufacturing, with solid-state batteries expected to set benchmarks for aviation-grade products [51]

Investment Rating - The report rates the copper industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The proposed 25% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase corporate inventory demand, leading to a short-term boost in copper prices. As of March 27, 2025, LME 3-month copper futures were priced at $9,846 per ton, with the spot price at $9,787 per ton, indicating a narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [1][8] - There is a persistent tight supply of refined copper globally, with a notable deficit in 2023. Although some improvement is expected by February 2024, the market is anticipated to return to a state of supply shortage by September 2024, which will support higher copper prices [2][10] - The rise of AI and advancements in computing power are driving increased demand for copper, particularly in data centers and 5G infrastructure. The global demand for copper used in PCBs reached 580,000 tons in 2023, with projections indicating that this could exceed one million tons by 2025 [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Demand - The U.S. is considering a 25% tariff on copper, which has led to increased inventory accumulation by companies due to concerns over future price hikes. This is expected to support short-term demand for copper [1][8] Section 2: Supply Constraints - Global refined copper supply has been tight, with a deficit observed in most months of 2023. The situation is expected to improve slightly in early 2024, but a return to supply shortages is anticipated later in the year [2][10] Section 3: Demand Expansion through AI - The development of generative AI and enhanced computing capabilities is creating new opportunities in the computing sector, leading to increased demand for various copper products. The demand for copper in PCBs is projected to grow significantly, driven by investments in computing infrastructure [3][13] Section 4: Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a key player due to its substantial mineral reserves and advanced technology in copper and gold mining. The company operates extensively in China and internationally [16] - Jiangxi Copper is noted as the largest copper producer in China, benefiting from its integrated operations across the entire copper supply chain, which positions it well to capitalize on rising copper prices [17]

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a stable recovery in the profitability of industrial enterprises, supported by recent macroeconomic policies and adjustments in monetary policy, particularly the shift to a multi-price bidding method for MLF operations [2][3][4]. News and Commentary - The People's Bank of China announced a new MLF operation method to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a planned operation of 450 billion yuan for a one-year term [2][12]. - The Ministry of Finance's report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, including increased fiscal deficit rates and larger government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [2][13]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 910.99 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year [3][17]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.2%. The pharmaceutical and biological sector led the gains with a 1.0% increase [4][25][28]. - The adjustment of MLF operations signals a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, benefiting the bond market and potentially improving the performance of cyclical stocks [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities driven by policy and industrial trends, particularly in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, aerospace, and deep-sea technology [5][34]. - Consider sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, including food and beverage, home appliances, and automotive industries [5][34]. - Pay attention to industries that may benefit from large-scale debt issuance, particularly companies with government contracts and the infrastructure supply chain [5][34]. - Monitor investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise market value management [5][34]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][34].

Group 1: A-share Buyback Policy - The A-share buyback policy has evolved through three stages: "comprehensive prohibition," "limited relaxation," and "flexible incentives" since 1993. The buyback scale has significantly increased since 2018, with a historical high of 165.63 billion yuan in 2024 [1][19][20]. Group 2: Current Status of A-share Buybacks - The number of actively repurchasing companies in 2024 reached 1,216, surpassing the number of passively repurchasing companies. The active buybacks have increased from 387 companies in 2021 to 616 in 2023 [2][24][27]. Group 3: Impact of Buybacks on Company Valuation - Historical buyback waves have occurred at market bottoms, providing a stabilizing effect on market value. An analysis of 10,633 buyback events from 2018 to March 2025 shows positive absolute and relative returns post-announcement, with average returns of 1.84% and 1.17% after 30 days, and 3.74% and 1.94% after 90 days [3][31][34]. - Long-term returns are significant, with average absolute returns of 12.85% and 21.70% after one and two years post-completion, respectively [3][37]. - Active buybacks yield higher excess returns compared to passive buybacks, with an average excess return of 4.36% for other purposes, 2.82% for equity incentives, and 3.01% for market value management after 90 days [3][42]. - The buyback ratio is positively correlated with excess returns, with companies repurchasing more than 5% of their shares achieving an average excess return of 19.27% from the announcement to completion [3][42][47]. Group 4: Buyback Purposes and Methods - The buyback purposes have diversified, with significant increases in market value management and profit compensation since 2018. The buyback methods include centralized bidding, block trading, tender offers, and agreement transfers, each with distinct operational processes and market impacts [19][21][22][24][47]. - The buyback process involves five stages: internal decision-making, regulatory reporting, implementation, information disclosure, and share handling [17][18]. Group 5: Valuation Perspectives - The buyback announcement can reflect both "stronger strength" and "valuation recovery" logic, with lower valuation companies showing higher excess returns post-announcement compared to higher valuation companies [47].

证券研究报告/行业研究 政策促进文旅消费，清明出游预定数据良好 ——旅游行业动态追踪 投资要点 ➢ 政策发力，广东省提出2027年旅游总收入突破1.3万亿元 3月16日中共中央办公厅，国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 支持符合条件的消费、文化旅游等领域项目发行基础设施领域不动产投资信 托基金（REITs）；此外广东省近日发布了《关于推动旅游业高质量发展加快 建设旅游强省的若干措施》，包括增强旅游基础设施建设、推广广东特色旅 游品牌、以及鼓励文化与旅游的深度融合等，且明确提出实施文旅投资100 项在建重大项目和100项重点招商项目"双百"计划，力争到2027年，全省 年接待游客突破9.5亿人次，旅游总收入突破1.3万亿元。 ➢ 清明出游热，机酒预定增势良好 春季到来，气温逐渐升高，清明节小长假即将来临。根据航旅纵横，截至3月 25日，国内航线机票预订量超175万张，同比增长约12%。去哪儿大数据显 示，清明出游以短途为主，京津冀、江浙沪、成渝、两湖、粤港澳2小时高铁 圈内的游客流动频繁。从酒店预定来看，长三角地区热门目的地为上海、南 京、杭州、苏州、扬州、无锡、徐州、黄山、宁波和嘉兴。下沉市场中高端酒 ...

Group 1 - The A-share repurchase policy has evolved from a "market rescue tool" to "market regulation" and now to "value guidance," with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) encouraging companies to enhance investment value through repurchases and increases in shareholding [1][9][10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases has increased from 363 in 2020 to 585 in 2024, with annual repurchase amounts maintaining around 100 billion yuan, predominantly among small-cap companies in growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, chemicals, electronics, and power equipment [1][15][19] Group 2 - The average excess return for companies announcing their first repurchase is 3.4% over 90 days, indicating a positive impact on market value, although individual results vary significantly [1][19][20] - Companies with executives (directors, supervisors, and senior management) making repurchase announcements see an average excess return of 3.8% over 90 days, which is higher than that of non-executive shareholders [2][20] - Small-cap companies with a market value below 5 billion yuan experience an average excess return of 7.0% following repurchase announcements, suggesting a stronger market response to such actions [2][24] Group 3 - Practical recommendations for companies include choosing the right timing for repurchases when stocks are undervalued, ensuring the scale of repurchases aligns with available funds, and coordinating repurchase tools with other strategies [3][26] - Companies should manage the announcement rhythm to align with market expectations and track the effects of repurchase announcements on excess returns and trading volume [3][27] - A case study of Sichuan Road and Bridge demonstrates effective use of repurchases to manage market value, with significant stock price increases following their announcements [3][28][30]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest institutional research in the past 30 days include Weisheng Information, Anpeilong, Jiangbolong, and Zhaomin Technology [11] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Zoli Pharmaceutical, Oke Yi, Guangdong Expressway A, Chaojie Co., and Haitai Technology [11] - Among these companies, nine have received coverage from ten or more rating agencies, including Weisheng Information, Guangdong Expressway A, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Huarui Precision [11] - Ningbo Bank reported a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 compared to 2023 [11] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, eight companies announced significant shareholder increases, including Luzhou Laojiao, Funiu Co., Wangneng Environment, and others [14] - Among these companies, Luzhou Laojiao and Funiu Co. have received coverage from more than ten rating agencies [14] Group 3: A-Share Buyback Situation - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, a total of 128 companies announced buyback progress, with 31 companies filtered based on having coverage from ten or more rating agencies [17] - Ten companies are expected to have a buyback amount that exceeds 1% of their market value on the announcement date, including Zhengmei Machine, Shengquan Group, and Jingwei Hengrun-W [17] Group 4: Year-to-Date Shareholder Increases - From January 1 to March 16, 2025, 73 companies announced significant shareholder increases, with 14 having coverage from more than ten rating agencies [15] - Companies with a proposed increase amount that exceeds 1% of their market value include Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co. [15] Group 5: Year-to-Date Buyback Situation - From January 1 to March 16, 2025, a total of 946 companies announced buyback progress, with 173 having coverage from more than ten rating agencies [19] - Among these, 53 companies are expected to have a buyback amount that exceeds 1% of their market value, with Haitai New Light, Sanor Bio, and Huaming Equipment in the board proposal stage [19] Group 6: Institutional Fund Flow - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, various sectors such as non-bank financials, media, textiles, steel, and utilities received net inflows from institutional funds [22] - In the past 30 days, sectors like real estate, textiles, building materials, and food and beverage also saw net inflows [26] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - For institutional research, it is recommended to focus on Ningbo Bank, which has high research activity and a reported 6% increase in net profit for 2024 [28] - For significant shareholder increases, attention is drawn to Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co., which have a proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of their market value [28] - For buybacks, companies with significant buyback amounts and those in the board proposal stage, such as Haitai New Light, Sanor Bio, and Huaming Equipment, are recommended for attention [28]

Group 1 - In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, influenced by the Spring Festival timing and fluctuations in international commodity prices [5][15][21] - The CPI's year-on-year decline was primarily due to a high comparison base from the previous year, with food prices dropping by 3.3%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.60 percentage points [17][21] - The report highlights that certain sectors, such as industrial consumer goods and services, showed price increases, indicating a moderate recovery in prices despite the overall decline [5][21] Group 2 - The report indicates that the government aims for a 5% economic growth target for the year, balancing domestic and international challenges while promoting high-quality development [32][34] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates to ensure liquidity [32][33] - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating capital market reforms to enhance economic resilience [33][34] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors driven by policy and industrial trends, including artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and aerospace [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on industries benefiting from increased domestic demand, such as food and beverage, home appliances, and automobiles [8][49] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to state-owned enterprises' market value management and the potential for valuation recovery in undervalued state-owned enterprises [8][49]

Macro Level - The economic goal is to seek progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress [4] - Monetary policy is moderately loose, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity [12] - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [16] - Real estate policy is primarily focused on stability [18] - Capital market reforms are accelerating [19] Industry Level - Consumption stimulation ranks as the top priority among the ten major tasks [4] - Development of new productive forces should be tailored to local conditions [4] - The low-altitude economy is expected to accelerate commercialization, with significant policy support [26] - The commercial aerospace sector is rapidly growing, with a market size projected to reach 2.34 trillion yuan in 2024 [30] - The humanoid robot industry is advancing quickly, with companies like Yuzhu Robotics leading in performance and functionality [24] Government Work Report Comparison - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with the 2024 target [7] - The urban employment target for 2025 remains at over 12 million, similar to 2024 [7] - The CPI target for 2025 is adjusted to around 2%, down from 3% in 2024, reflecting a response to deflation risks [10] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to exceed 4% for the first time since 2009 in 2025, indicating a shift towards demand expansion [16] Technological Advancements - DeepSeek has significantly improved computing efficiency, leading to a surge in AI applications [23] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing rapid advancements in intelligence and flexibility, with ongoing product iterations [24] - The eVTOL market is entering a production phase, with companies like EHang achieving significant regulatory milestones [26]