Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various developers, with specific recommendations such as "Sell" for China Vanke and "Buy" for COLI and CR Land [61][62]. Core Insights - The primary market in monitored cities showed a 28% week-on-week increase in new home sales volume, while secondary transactions increased by 5% week-on-week [7][39]. - The easing policies implemented in cities like Shenzhen and Anhui are aimed at promoting new home sales and destocking existing inventory, with a focus on affordable housing projects [1][2]. - The report indicates that the overall primary gross floor area (GFA) sold in 1Q25 was flattish year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2% growth [10]. Summary by Sections Local Policy Developments - Shenzhen updated its Urban Village Redevelopment Project (UVRP) execution guidelines, including housing vouchers and stricter controls on new project approvals [1]. - Anhui introduced easing policies to promote new home sales and expand the scope of local projects [2]. Market Performance - In the 26th week of the easing cycle, primary and secondary volumes were up 21% and 5% week-on-week, respectively, significantly above pre-easing levels [3][11]. - The new home searching heat index fell by 2% week-on-week, indicating a decrease in demand compared to pre-easing levels [20]. Sales and Transactions - New home sales volume averaged a 28% increase week-on-week, with tier-3 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming [7][29]. - Secondary transactions showed a 5% week-on-week increase and a 14% year-on-year increase, reflecting positive price expectations from agents and homeowners [39][41]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory levels decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with inventory months at 25.9, slightly above the average of 25.5 in February 2025 [49][51]. - Completions are expected to show a teen-level year-on-year decline in March 2025, with a projected 3% year-on-year increase for FY25 [54][58]. Valuations - The report notes that offshore developers are trading at an average 34% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a 22% discount [63].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision in the 2025 Global Real GDP Growth Forecast, now standing below consensus due to tariff-driven downgrades in the US and Euro Area [2][7]. Core Insights - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has tightened primarily due to short rates and equities, impacting growth forecasts negatively [6][22]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in growth forecasts across various regions, particularly in North America and Western Europe, with specific countries like Turkey showing an increase in growth projections [8][92]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for March shows a mixed performance, with the UK experiencing a decline while emerging markets like India and China show stronger growth [10][47]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The report provides an update on global economic indicators, emphasizing the impact of higher tariffs on growth [1]. - The 2025 GDP forecast has been downgraded for the US and Euro Area, reflecting a broader trend of reduced growth expectations [2][7]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has tightened, primarily influenced by short-term interest rates and equity market performance [6][22]. - The report details the contributions to the FCI changes, indicating a tightening trend across various financial metrics [23][26]. Growth Forecasts - The report outlines changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with notable adjustments across multiple regions, particularly highlighting Turkey's positive revision [8][92]. - The CAI for March indicates a global average of +2.2%, with developed markets at +0.8% and emerging markets showing stronger performance [10][47]. Inflation Insights - The report discusses changes in inflation forecasts for 2025, with core inflation in Turkey projected to increase by 1.9 percentage points [88]. - Headline inflation in Russia is expected to rise by 2.8 percentage points, indicating significant regional variations in inflation expectations [88].

Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK$22.00/RMB24.00 from HK$14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK$18.60 from HK$17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].

GS China Economic Outlook Leaning Against the Wind (逆风前行) March 2025 Note: Forecast numbers reflect data available as of 21 March. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Global Investment Research 2 Key China Macro Views Hui Shan Chief China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-6634 Hui.Shan@gs.com Lisheng Wang China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-3966-4004 Lisheng.Wang@gs.com Xinquan Chen China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-2418 Xinquan.Chen@gs ...

27 March 2025 | 12:00AM HKT WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) Earnings Review: 2H24 earnings slightly higher than GSe; guided 12-15% revenue growth for FY25 and improving margin | 2269.HK | | --- | | 12m Price Target: HK$23.40 | | Price: HK$26.20 | | Downside: 10.7% | 2H24 revenue reached Rmb10.1bn (vs GSe Rmb9.70bn or VA consensus Rmb9.43bn), +18.3% y/y, that came at higher end of the previous guidance (FY24 +9.6% y/y, vs guidance of +5%-10% y/y), mainly attributable to the robust growth from WuXi XDC (+111% in 2H) ...

30 March 2025 | 7:27PM EDT US Equity Views Higher tariffs and weaker growth reduce our earnings estimates and S&P 500 return forecasts David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & ...

A Further Increase in Our Tariff Assumptions (Walker / Phillips / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 March 2025 | 4:52PM EDT US Economics Analyst David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Ri ...

4月还将标志着美联储资产负债表缩减的进一步放缓。我们的利率策略师预计，量化紧缩（即允许债券到期而不将 收益再投资）将在2025年第三季度末结束。虽然量化紧缩的缩减应会缓解股票风险溢价的压力，但在我们的股票 风险溢价（ERP）模型中，增长预期的信号强度是美联储资产负债表规模的三倍。我们的利率策略师预计，10年期 美国国债名义收益率到年底将维持在4.35%，与当前水平相近。 我们的基线预测是，标准普尔500指数在未来三个月将持平，但随着经济和收益持续增长，到年底将上涨11%。对 于股市的近期走势而言，对这一增长前景的调整将比收益率的变化更为重要。标准普尔500指数的回报率通常对股 市对经济增长的定价变化比对实际收益率的变化更为敏感，而且这种关系最近有所加强。除了关税，周五的就业 报告将是股票投资者的关键信号。 一些对利率敏感的股票的表现最近与利率走势出现了背离。长期股票，如我们的长期和非盈利科技篮子股票，在 股市抛售期间表现滞后。相比之下，像房地产这样的 "债券替代品" 表现优于大盘。在本报告中，我们对长期 和短期篮子进行了重新平衡（成分股见图表14和图表15）。 与客户的对话：4月政策调整对股市的影响 随着20 ...

26 March 2025 | 7:11AM HKT China Musings Global marketing feedback: China is back We have held extensive meetings with investors in Asia, the US, and Europe in the past month to discuss views and ideas on Chinese equities. We summarize clients' feedback and FAQs, and our latest market thoughts as follows: Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com G ...

26 March 2025 | 8:49PM GMT Precious Analyst Gold: Raising Our End-2025 Forecast to $3,300; Top 10 Questions Lina Thomas +44(20)7051-3062 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a8 ...