25 March 2025 | 7:37PM EDT US Daily: How Much Have Inflation Expectations Increased? (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a price target of $10,200 per ton for Q4 2025, driven by strong electrification demand, China stimulus, and slower mine supply growth [4][10]. Core Insights - The LME copper price briefly traded above $10,000 per ton on March 20, before retreating to under $9,850 per ton, but remains up 12% year-to-date [4]. - The recent strength in LME copper prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of Section 232 on US copper tariffs and a positive shift in sentiment regarding China's economic outlook [4]. - The report anticipates a market deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, with stockpiling in the US making the global market appear tighter [4]. - China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) plans to increase copper stockpiles in 2025, which is seen as a defensive measure against potential shortages rather than opportunistic buying [4]. Summary by Sections - **Price Trends**: The LME copper price has shown volatility, with a significant increase driven by tariff-related factors and positive sentiment from China [4][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the influence of US trade policy updates on copper prices, indicating potential risks from upcoming announcements [4]. - **Forecasts**: The report outlines a bullish price forecast for copper, with specific quarterly targets leading up to 2026, reflecting expectations of strong demand and supply constraints [10].

24 March 2025 | 5:15PM CST Taiwan Technology: Components Slower AI server rack shipment outlook in the near-term; cut estimates/TPs; Buy Delta, EMC,TUC & GCE Our Global technology team sees further downside to the AI server shipment outlook (mainly for GPU AI server) in the near-term and have cut the global AI server rack shipment estimate by 35/10% in 2025/26E (see more details here). We expect the slower than expected AI server rack shipment to be mainly impacted by (1) slower than expected demand from AI ...

21 March 2025 | 4:52PM GMT EM Weekly Fund Flows Monitor Hedge Funds reversed 17% of ytd buying in China; Foreign outflows in Indonesia amid market volatility, led by Banks; Europe sees 6th consecutive weekly inflow HK/China Connect, Domestic retail flows Global Equity mutual fund flows funds saw outflows of US$1bn this week. Focus: China / Indonesia Flows and Positioning Sunil Koul +44(20)7051-4931 | sunil.koul@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mark Hung +852-3465-4266 | mark.hung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asi ...

Investment Rating - The report has reduced the Brent price forecast and expected trading range by $5 to $65-80/bbl [2][7] Core Insights - The medium-term risks to the price forecast are skewed to the downside due to rising recession risks and elevated spare capacity [2][8] - Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to decrease significantly with lower Brent prices, providing a softer price floor compared to OPEC+ cuts [2][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of producer hedging strategies as prices recover in the short term [52] Summary by Sections Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The Brent price forecast was adjusted downwards following a downgrade in the US GDP growth forecast and OPEC+ production increases [2][7] - Non-OPEC+ production growth is sensitive to price changes, with a decrease of 0.3mb/d for each $10/bbl price drop when Brent is above $70/bbl [2][42] Non-OPEC+ Supply Response - Non-OPEC+ production growth is projected to fall from 1.05mb/d to 0.6mb/d at $60/bbl Brent prices, and to -0.1mb/d at $50/bbl [2][46] - The supply response is non-linear, with significant production shut-ins possible as prices approach well-head variable costs [2][39] Price Sensitivity and Decline Rates - The report indicates that lower oil prices lead to higher decline rates in existing fields, with a 0.5% increase in decline rates for a $10/bbl price drop [14][17] - The non-OPEC+ ex-US supply response is characterized by a steep cost curve, becoming more elastic as prices approach well-head variable costs [31][39] Hedging Recommendations - The report recommends producer three-way hedges to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and to capitalize on potential price recoveries [52]

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various developers, with specific recommendations such as "Sell" for China Vanke and "Buy" for COLI and CR Land [65][66]. Core Insights - The primary sales in the property market have shown improvement, with a 19% week-over-week increase and a 15% year-over-year increase, particularly in tier-2 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region [7][25]. - Secondary transactions have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 2% week-over-week but a 13% year-over-year increase, indicating a divergence in price expectations between agents and homeowners [42]. - The easing measures have led to a significant increase in primary and secondary sales volumes, with primary sales up 32% week-over-week and 52% above pre-easing levels [3][11]. Summary by Sections Inventory and Sales - Guangzhou has initiated an affordable housing program, launching pilot projects that convert completed inventory into saleable units, totaling over 1,300 units [1]. - The overall inventory balance has decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 1.5% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.3 [52][55]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold has increased by 7% year-over-year, although it remains down 26% and 15% compared to 2023 and 2022 levels, respectively [10][39]. - The report indicates that top-100 developers' presales likely improved by 8% year-over-year in March, compared to a 2% increase in February [10]. Completions and New Starts - The monthly GSPC tracker suggests a teen-level year-over-year decline in completions for March 2025, with expectations of a 25% year-over-year decline in new starts [57][66]. - Home appliance sales are expected to show improvement based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that offshore developers are trading at an average 31% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a 21% discount [66].

22 March 2025 | 12:09AM SGT Asian Equity Perspectives What's on investors' minds In the past two weeks, our Asia strategy team has had meetings with investors in HK, Singapore, the US, and Europe. Conversations continue to center on tariffs, AI, China, and geopolitics, with drilldowns into the larger regional markets. We summarize the key discussion points along with our views, emphasizing noteworthy new developments. We remain constructive on Asian equities, with 9% upside to our MXAPJ 640 index target, ov ...

25 March 2025 | 8:25AM CST Optical Transceiver: Lowering 1.6T volume estimate following GS AI Server revision Following GS AI Server estimate revisions (report), where rack-level AI servers are revised down to 19k/57k in 2025/26E (from 31k/66k previously), we revise our estimates for Innolight/TFC optical's 1.6T volume outlook. To note, we have previously cut 1.6T shipment estimates for Innolight and Eoptolink (for more details, Innolight/Eoptolink on March 3rd). In this report, we lower Innolight's 2026E n ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Quanta from Buy to Neutral with a new 12-month target price of NT$293, reflecting a 7% to 21% reduction in target prices for Taiwan ODM/cooling supply chain companies [1]. Core Insights - The forecast for rack-level AI server volumes has been revised down to 19k and 57k for 2025 and 2026, respectively, from previous estimates of 31k and 66k, due to product transitions and demand uncertainties [1]. - The demand for high-power AI servers is expected to remain stable, with unit estimates revised to 423k for both 2025 and 2026, indicating that some customers prefer baseboard solutions for design flexibility [2]. - The overall outlook for AI inferencing and general servers remains positive, driven by AI technology applications and a recovery in the replacement cycle [2]. Server Market Outlook - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach US$231 billion, US$277 billion, and US$376 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 20%, and 36% [10]. - AI training server revenues are anticipated to grow at 30% and 63% year-on-year, reaching US$160 billion and US$260 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [11][30]. - General server volumes are expected to increase by 6% and 4% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, supported by a recovery in replacement cycles and new CPU platform introductions [15]. Customer Spending Insights - Leading US cloud service providers are forecasted to increase their capital expenditure budgets by 41% and 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][20]. - Chinese cloud platforms are expected to raise their capital expenditure by 26% in 2025, stabilizing to a 4% increase in 2026 [3][26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the MSCI China index with a target price of 85, suggesting a potential upside of 11% [35] - The CSI300 index has a target price of 4,700, indicating a potential upside of 20% [35] Core Insights - The State Council has introduced measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact economic activity [1] - Recent activity data for January-February showed industrial production growth of 5.9%, fixed asset investment growth of 4.1%, and retail sales growth of 4.0%, all year-on-year [1] - Earnings for 4Q24 have shown a significant increase, with 33% of the China/MXCN universe reporting a 25% year-on-year rise in earnings [11] - The report highlights that the offshore tech sector has seen EPS upgrades due to AI optimism, while earnings surprises have been less favorable historically [14] Summary by Sections Performance - Utilities and Value sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Growth sectors lagged [8] - MXCN/CSI300 forward P/E ratios are 11.5x and 13.0x respectively, with expected EPS growth of 8% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for MXCN [9] Flows - Southbound flows reached US$51 billion year-to-date, indicating strong foreign interest in Chinese equities [3] Policies and News - The State Council has unveiled a new food safety regulatory framework across the full supply chain, which may impact related sectors positively [4] Earnings and Valuations - The report notes that the consensus EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 are 8%/14% for MXCN and 16%/12% for CSI300, with significant upward revisions in Information Technology and Real Estate sectors [9][37] Macro Indicators - The report provides macroeconomic forecasts, projecting China's real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, with industrial production growth expected to be 5.8% in 2024 [36][38]