Equity Research Report | Company Research Report TMT | AI Infra/SaaS STRONG BUY (REIT) | HKD101.0 PT 15 April 2025 | HSI | 21,417.4 | | --- | --- | | HSTECH | 5,015.12 | | Key Data | | | Closing price (HKD) | 41.75 | | 52-week High/Low (HKD) | 144/32.4 | | Market Cap (HK$bn) | 107.12 | | Avg 3m Daily Volume | 4,478,140 | Analyst Head of TMT Research Chan Kwok Keung SFC No：BUL892 winson.chan@usmarthk.com Marketingforce (2556.HK) - FY24 Results Review ❑ Revenue +26.5% YoY. Gross Profit +16.9% YoY. Adj. Net Pr ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 4QFY25 前瞻：淘天保持货币化率提升，云收入加速 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年第四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）整体：预计 4QFY25 收入同比+7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 13%。其中淘天/国际数字 商业/云智能集团/本地生活/菜鸟/大文娱收入增速分别为 5%/27%/20%/12%/1%/7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 同比+2pcts，主要反映出非淘天业务亏损持续性收窄。2）淘天集团：预计 FY25Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price of HK$11.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the resilience of the Chinese economy, with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year for Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for electronic products and home appliances [6][8]. - The company is focusing on automation, self-operated fleet construction, and cost-reduction measures, which are expected to stabilize its net profit margin [6][8]. - Despite the potential negative impact of the US-China trade tensions, JD Logistics has limited direct exposure to international trade, which mitigates the risks associated with tariff increases [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: RMB 199,540 million for 2025E (+3% from previous estimates) and RMB 216,070 million for 2026E (+4%) [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is RMB 1.18, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.56 by 2027E [2][8]. - The company's financial performance shows a significant increase in net profit from RMB 1,985 million in 2023A to RMB 7,353 million in 2025E [8]. Valuation - The current valuation of JD Logistics is attractive, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.2x for 2025E, which may decrease further if the acquisition of the remaining 36% stake in Cross-border Express is completed successfully [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation attractiveness can offset potential negative impacts from external tariff environments [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6][7] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 21.8 for 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][26]. Core Insights - The company reported strong retail performance in Q1 2025, with main brand offline sales growth of 10-15%, children's clothing offline sales growth of 10-15%, and e-commerce sales growth of 35-40%, reflecting a robust market presence [6][8]. - The company is actively innovating its store formats, launching the "Super Product Store" concept, with plans to expand from 10 to 50-100 stores by 2025, enhancing customer shopping experience [8]. - The company maintains a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4.5-5 times, with a stable discount rate of around 30% in Q1 2025, indicating effective inventory management [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 84.23 billion RMB - FY2024: 100.7 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 113.0 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 123.8 billion RMB (10% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 134.5 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 9.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 11.5 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 13.0 billion RMB (13% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 14.5 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 15.8 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [7][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 700 sales points in Europe and North America, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Belt and Road countries for future expansion, indicating a strategic approach to international markets [8]. - The management expresses confidence in achieving a sales growth of 10-15% in 2025, primarily driven by volume growth [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 优于大市 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q1 前瞻：继续受益于国补以旧换新，新业务投入影响可 控 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525020001 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 京东集团即将发布 2025 年一季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）收入端：预计 25Q1 收入同比+12%。其中京东零售/京东物流/新业务增速分别为 +13%/9%/5%。京东零售预计 25Q1 收入同比+14%，商品收 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 4QFY25 前瞻：淘天保持货币化率提升，云收入加速 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年第四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）整体：预计 4QFY25 收入同比+7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 13%。其中淘天/国际数字 商业/云智能集团/本地生活/菜鸟/大文娱收入增速分别为 5%/27%/20%/12%/1%/7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 同比+2pcts，主要反映出非淘天业务亏损持续性收窄。2）淘天集团：预计 FY25Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 16.6 for 2025, 14.9 for 2026, and 13.5 for 2027 [8]

事件 4 月 11 日，公司披露原保费收入情况，Q1 实现保费收入 80 亿元， 同比 12.3%；3 月当月保费收入 29 亿元，同比 15.1%。 预计众安 25 年归母净利润约 9 亿元（24 年净利润 6 亿），高弹性 增长。截至 4 月 14 日，公司 2025 年 PB 估值为 0.67X，处于历史 估值分位的 2%，建议关注底部配置机会，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 监管趋严；经济修复不及预期；行业竞争加剧；资本市场波动。 经营分析 保险业务：盈利持续优化。预计 Q1 保费较快增长由健康险、车险 保费高增带来，其中健康险由产品创新驱动，公司 2 月上市了覆 盖非标体的中高端医疗险众民保，发售仅十天全网保费即超过 1.4 亿元。全年来看，保险基本盘持续优化，25 年承保盈利预计实现 双位数增长：1）全年保费预期增速 10%以上，其中健康险和车险 是重要发力点，退运险将压缩，保证险将审慎发展。2）COR 预期 较 2024 年略有优化，来源于退运险的压缩、健康险费用率的降低、 以及保证险赔付改善。 银行业务：预计 25 年实现盈亏平衡。众安银行香港市场领先的虚 拟银行，25 年预计将实现盈亏平衡（2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨名创优品（9896.HK） [Table_Title] 名创优品 2024 全年以及 Q4 点评：战略投入阶 段稀释利润率，IP 和出海拉动成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司实现收入 169.9 亿元，同比增长 23%；归母净利润为 26.2 亿元，同比增长 16%， 经调整后净利润 27.2 亿元，同比增长 16%。2024Q4 公司实现收入 47.1 亿元，同比增长 23%， 归母净利润为 8.1 亿元，同比增长 27%，经调整净利润为 7.9 亿元，同比增长 20%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 名创优品（9896.HK） cjzqdt11111 李锦 罗祎 秦意昂 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 名创优品 2024 2] 全年以及 Q4 点评：战略投入阶 段稀释利润率，IP 和出海拉动成长 [T ...