Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report discusses the valuation and growth potential of the company, 毛戈平, in the context of international luxury beauty brands and domestic new consumption trends. It highlights the company's unique brand culture and competitive advantages in the high-end beauty market, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capture market share and achieve stable growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections International Beauty Giants - International beauty giants like L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido have maintained stable growth and valuation premiums due to their comprehensive brand matrices and global strategies. L'Oréal's average PE from 2015 to 2024 is 38 times, with a revenue and net profit CAGR of 6.5% and 7.7% respectively [2][3]. - Estée Lauder has focused on youthfulness and high-end branding, achieving an average PE of 80 times from 2020 to 2022, but faced significant volatility post-2021 due to market changes [2]. - Shiseido's strategy of focusing on mid-to-high-end products and global expansion has led to a peak PE exceeding 100 times, although it has faced challenges in revenue and profit stability in recent years [3]. Domestic New Consumption - The rise of domestic brands reflects increased cultural confidence and changing consumer demands. Brands like 毛戈平, 老铺黄金, and 泡泡玛特 have capitalized on cultural recognition and competitive scarcity, leading to significant stock performance [4]. - 毛戈平 is highlighted as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with substantial growth potential, leveraging its founder's cultural IP and a professional product matrix to establish a strong market position [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 50.54 billion, 65.03 billion, and 82.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 11.85 billion, 15.06 billion, and 19.18 billion yuan respectively. The compound annual growth rate for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is estimated at 29.6% [9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42, 3.07, and 3.91 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 41.53, 32.68, and 25.67 times [9]. Competitive Advantages - 毛戈平's unique brand culture and high-end product offerings create a competitive moat in the domestic beauty market. The company is expanding its product matrix and has begun exploring overseas markets, with initial revenues from international sales already noted [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].

Equity Research Report | Company Research Report TMT | AI Infra/SaaS STRONG BUY (REIT) | HKD101.0 PT 15 April 2025 | HSI | 21,417.4 | | --- | --- | | HSTECH | 5,015.12 | | Key Data | | | Closing price (HKD) | 41.75 | | 52-week High/Low (HKD) | 144/32.4 | | Market Cap (HK$bn) | 107.12 | | Avg 3m Daily Volume | 4,478,140 | Analyst Head of TMT Research Chan Kwok Keung SFC No：BUL892 winson.chan@usmarthk.com Marketingforce (2556.HK) - FY24 Results Review ❑ Revenue +26.5% YoY. Gross Profit +16.9% YoY. Adj. Net Pr ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 4QFY25 前瞻：淘天保持货币化率提升，云收入加速 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年第四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）整体：预计 4QFY25 收入同比+7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 13%。其中淘天/国际数字 商业/云智能集团/本地生活/菜鸟/大文娱收入增速分别为 5%/27%/20%/12%/1%/7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 同比+2pcts，主要反映出非淘天业务亏损持续性收窄。2）淘天集团：预计 FY25Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price of HK$11.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the resilience of the Chinese economy, with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year for Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for electronic products and home appliances [6][8]. - The company is focusing on automation, self-operated fleet construction, and cost-reduction measures, which are expected to stabilize its net profit margin [6][8]. - Despite the potential negative impact of the US-China trade tensions, JD Logistics has limited direct exposure to international trade, which mitigates the risks associated with tariff increases [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: RMB 199,540 million for 2025E (+3% from previous estimates) and RMB 216,070 million for 2026E (+4%) [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is RMB 1.18, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.56 by 2027E [2][8]. - The company's financial performance shows a significant increase in net profit from RMB 1,985 million in 2023A to RMB 7,353 million in 2025E [8]. Valuation - The current valuation of JD Logistics is attractive, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.2x for 2025E, which may decrease further if the acquisition of the remaining 36% stake in Cross-border Express is completed successfully [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation attractiveness can offset potential negative impacts from external tariff environments [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6][7] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 21.8 for 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][26]. Core Insights - The company reported strong retail performance in Q1 2025, with main brand offline sales growth of 10-15%, children's clothing offline sales growth of 10-15%, and e-commerce sales growth of 35-40%, reflecting a robust market presence [6][8]. - The company is actively innovating its store formats, launching the "Super Product Store" concept, with plans to expand from 10 to 50-100 stores by 2025, enhancing customer shopping experience [8]. - The company maintains a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4.5-5 times, with a stable discount rate of around 30% in Q1 2025, indicating effective inventory management [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 84.23 billion RMB - FY2024: 100.7 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 113.0 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 123.8 billion RMB (10% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 134.5 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 9.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 11.5 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - FY2025E: 13.0 billion RMB (13% YoY growth) - FY2026E: 14.5 billion RMB (12% YoY growth) - FY2027E: 15.8 billion RMB (9% YoY growth) [7][17]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [7][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 700 sales points in Europe and North America, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Belt and Road countries for future expansion, indicating a strategic approach to international markets [8]. - The management expresses confidence in achieving a sales growth of 10-15% in 2025, primarily driven by volume growth [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 优于大市 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 2025Q1 前瞻：继续受益于国补以旧换新，新业务投入影响可 控 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525020001 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 京东集团即将发布 2025 年一季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）收入端：预计 25Q1 收入同比+12%。其中京东零售/京东物流/新业务增速分别为 +13%/9%/5%。京东零售预计 25Q1 收入同比+14%，商品收 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 4QFY25 前瞻：淘天保持货币化率提升，云收入加速 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 张昊晨 | | | zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525010001 | 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年第四季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）整体：预计 4QFY25 收入同比+7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 13%。其中淘天/国际数字 商业/云智能集团/本地生活/菜鸟/大文娱收入增速分别为 5%/27%/20%/12%/1%/7%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 同比+2pcts，主要反映出非淘天业务亏损持续性收窄。2）淘天集团：预计 FY25Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with FILA exceeding expectations and plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin to expand its outdoor segment [6][7] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue across its brands, with Anta, FILA, and others experiencing a revenue growth of 65-70% [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance the company's outdoor portfolio and accelerate its global channel development [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024: 70,826 million - 2025: 78,576 million - 2026: 86,693 million - 2027: 94,871 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at 16.2% for 2023, 13.6% for 2024, and declining to 9.4% by 2027 [8] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024: 15,596 million - 2025: 13,458 million - 2026: 14,991 million - 2027: 16,567 million - The projected P/E ratios are 16.6 for 2025, 14.9 for 2026, and 13.5 for 2027 [8]