中国 证券研究 2025 年 4 月 21 日 通策医疗 - A 中国口腔医疗巨头脆弱微笑背后潜藏的不确定性：首 次覆盖，给予"减持"评级 我们首次覆盖通策医疗，给予"减持"评级和截至 2025 年 12 月的目标价 34 元。通策医疗是中国领先的口腔医疗连锁机构之一，截至 2024 年 3 季 度，公司经营有 84 家医疗机构，开设牙椅约 3100 台。我们认为口腔医 疗服务行业面临短期及长期挑战，导致盈利承压。我们的 2025/26 年每 股收益预测值分别比市场一致预期低 8%/10%。盈利增长前景弱于预期 以及对浙江省的地域依赖（收入九成来自省内）使我们很难合理化当前 估值倍数，我们认为该股股价此后将趋缓。 资料来源：风格敞口数据源自摩根大通量化与衍生品策略团队；其他所有图表中的数据均为公司数据或摩根大通估算 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 30 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存 在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑 因素之一。 首次覆盖 减持 6007 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China TransInfo Technology is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb5.1, indicating an expected share price return of -38.0% and a total expected return of -37.6% [4][8]. Core Insights - In 4Q24, revenue decreased by 28% year-over-year to Rmb1.8 billion, which was 40% and 25% below CitiE and BBGe estimates respectively [2][6]. - The gross margin for 4Q24 fell by 5.4 percentage points year-over-year to 32.1%, which was 6.1 percentage points below CitiE but 4.5 percentage points above BBGe [2][6]. - Operating expenses increased by 3% year-over-year to Rmb796 million, leading to an operating loss of Rmb206 million compared to an operating profit of Rmb179 million in 4Q23 [2][6]. - The overall net loss for 4Q24 was Rmb1.2 billion, aligning with previous guidance [2][6]. - For FY24, revenue declined by 7% year-over-year, with net losses also at Rmb1.2 billion compared to a net profit of Rmb542 million in FY23 [2][6]. Segment Breakdown - In the second half of 2024, revenue from intelligent transportation fell by 54% year-over-year to Rmb798 million, while the overall FY24 revenue for this segment decreased by 26% year-over-year to Rmb2.2 billion [3]. - The gross margin for the intelligent transportation segment narrowed by 12 percentage points year-over-year to 19.5% in 2H24, and the FY24 gross margin decreased by 7.3 percentage points to 21.1% [3]. - Conversely, revenue from intelligent IoT increased by 7% year-over-year to Rmb2.9 billion in 2H24, with an overall FY24 revenue growth of 5% year-over-year to Rmb5.1 billion [3].

• 美国大幅提高关税，平均关税从 3%跃升至 20%以上，为近百年最高，引 发股市和商品价格下跌，类似于 1,930 年代斯姆特霍利关税法案的影响。 • 高关税政策扰乱全球产业链，迫使企业调整生产布局，降低全球生产效率， 并导致美国政策不确定性指数升至近几十年第二高位。 • 美国加征关税通过量价冲击推升通胀，降低出口国经济增长，并抑制生产 总量，同时不确定性打击投资者信心，对宏观经济产生持久负面影响。 • 中金公司预测美国经济可能走向衰退或滞胀，GDP 断崖式下跌，消费和投 资放缓，与市场普遍认为的美国经济韧性形成对比。 • 美国经济数据分化严重，软数据（如消费者信心指数）与硬数据（如商品 销量）背离，需区分核心数据与辅助数据，避免过度依赖失真信息。 • 中国经济一季度 GDP 增长 5.4%，但预计二三季度将面临关税冲击，政府 可能出台逆周期政策，如减税降费、降准降息等，以稳定经济复苏。 • 在全球避险模式下，黄金表现强劲，而美债和美元的避险属性减弱，中国 债券亦值得考虑，美股面临衰退或滞胀风险，投资者应保持谨慎。 Q&A 关税冲击对全球经济与市场的影响有哪些？ 关税冲击对全球经济与市场的影响主要体现在以下 ...

Investment Ratings - Dahua: Sell [1][2][39] - Arcsoft: Sell [1][14][36] - Chinasoft Intl.: Neutral [1][24][34] Core Insights - Dahua launched the Xinghan foundation model 2.0 to enhance product competitiveness, but market demand is expected to remain low in 2025, particularly in China [2][3] - Arcsoft's growth is driven by AI and smart driving technologies, with management targeting high double-digit to triple-digit revenue growth in 2025 [14][15] - Chinasoft Intl. is expected to recover in 2025, driven by Huawei's product deployment and a positive outlook for traditional IT services [24][25] Dahua Summary - 1Q25 net income increased by 16% YoY to RMB 653 million, but was 14% below estimates; revenues were up 1% YoY but down 36% QoQ [3][7] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were revised down by 21%, 16%, and 15% respectively due to lower revenue visibility and increased R&D investments [8][10] - Target price revised down to RMB 14.28, reflecting a 9% downside [10] Arcsoft Summary - 1Q25 revenues were up 14% YoY to RMB 209 million, but 10% lower than estimates; net income was up 45% YoY to RMB 50 million [15][16] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2026 were revised down by 19% and 15% respectively, reflecting competition and modest demand [21][22] - Target price revised up to RMB 37.5, indicating a 14% downside [22] Chinasoft Intl. Summary - 2H24 revenues returned to positive YoY growth at +4%, with operating income largely in line with estimates [27][29] - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 were cut by 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively due to gross margin misses and pricing pressures [30][34] - Target price set at HK$5.5, based on a 15.4x 2025E P/E [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eoptolink, with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb123, indicating a potential upside of 51.5% from the current price of Rmb81.2 [9][17]. Core Insights - Eoptolink's revenue for 1Q25 reached Rmb4.05 billion, representing a 264% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, which aligns closely with Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb3.99 billion. The net profit of Rmb1.57 billion exceeded estimates by 11%, driven by strong margin expansion with a gross margin of 48.7% [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ramp-up of 400G and 800G optical transceivers, particularly in AI infrastructure, which is expected to be a primary earnings driver in 2025 [15]. - Eoptolink's net profit has converged with that of its larger peer, Innolight, despite having a market capitalization that is only 65% of Innolight's, suggesting a potential narrowing of the valuation gap due to Eoptolink's strong profitability and growth momentum [1][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Eoptolink's revenue growth has been robust, with sequential increases of 49%, 46%, and 15% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q24, 4Q24, and 1Q25, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of Rmb6.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 126% [2][9]. - The gross margin has shown significant improvement, reaching 48.7% in 1Q25, which is well above peer levels, attributed to better cost efficiency and the ramp of 800G products [2][6]. Estimate Revisions - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upward by up to 10%, and net profit estimates have been increased by up to 40% due to the reversal of negative pricing impacts from tariffs and stronger-than-expected margin performance [8][9]. - The new revenue estimates for 2025E are Rmb17.12 billion, with a gross margin projected at 48.8% [10][17]. Market Position and Valuation - Eoptolink is trading near its historical trough level P/E, which is considered attractive given the expected growth and profitability [15]. - The report highlights that the stock's valuation is set in line with the company's trough level P/E during 2021-2025, reflecting uncertainties in the tariff and demand outlook [9][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Anji Microelectronics Technology and raises the target price to CNY175 from CNY157 [3][5]. Core Insights - Anji Microelectronics reported a revenue of CNY1,835 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48%, driven by strong performance in photoresist solvent, which grew by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's gross margin improved to 58.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale advantages and product mix improvements [1]. - Earnings for 2024 were reported at CNY534 million, a 33% increase year-on-year, but fell short of consensus estimates due to higher asset impairment losses and a reduction in government subsidies [1]. Summary by Sections 2024 Performance - Revenue reached CNY1,835 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Photoresist solvent sales increased by 79% year-on-year, while CMP slurry sales grew by 44% [1]. - Gross margin was 58.5%, 0.4 percentage points above consensus [1]. 2025 Forecast - Expected sales and earnings growth of 24% and 28% year-on-year, respectively, driven by continued localization trends [2]. - Potential for increased CMP slurry penetration in key clients, with current penetration below 50% for the second and third largest clients [2]. - Anticipated better revenue growth in photoresist solvent due to low current penetration of around 20-25% [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The new target price of CNY175 is based on a 33x multiple of the 2025F EPS of CNY5.3, slightly above the historical average P/E of 32x [3][26]. - The stock currently trades at 33x 2025F P/E, indicating a modest upside of 1.2% from the closing price of CNY172.91 [5][26]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at CNY2,275 million, with net profit expected to reach CNY682 million [4][10]. - Normalized EPS is forecasted to grow by 27.7% in FY25, reaching CNY5.29 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (JSG) and lowers the target price to CNY27 from CNY30, reflecting weaker-than-expected results and a likely continued decline in solar equipment order backlog [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue declined by 2% year-on-year to CNY17,577 million, which is 9% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate, primarily due to a 20% decline in the materials business [1][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 fell by 45% year-on-year to CNY1.92, which is 36% lower than the consensus estimate, attributed to gross margin contraction, increased operating expenses, and a significant rise in asset impairment losses [1][4]. - The solar sector outlook remains negative, with solar demand softening, which is expected to continue impacting JSG's earnings in 2025 [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY24, JSG reported revenue of CNY17,577 million, with a projected decline to CNY16,051 million in FY25F and a slight recovery to CNY16,119 million in FY26F [5]. - The reported net profit for FY24 was CNY2,510 million, with forecasts of CNY2,212 million for FY25F and CNY2,181 million for FY26F [5]. - The normalized EPS is expected to decrease to CNY1.69 for FY25F and CNY1.67 for FY26F, down from CNY2.29 and CNY2.39 respectively [4][5]. Market Position and Risks - JSG's inventory and contract liabilities have decreased by 30% and 48% year-on-year as of December 2024, indicating a softening order backlog from solar clients [2]. - The potential downside in sales and earnings could be partially mitigated by a stable semi-equipment order backlog and delayed revenue recognition from ongoing projects [3][4]. - The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17x for FY25F, while the revised target price reflects a P/E of 16x [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. is Overweight, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a modest revenue miss in 4Q24, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 8%, primarily due to lower-than-expected sales in concrete machinery and excavators. However, net profit increased by 131% year-over-year, driven by a decline in selling expenses and non-operating income [5][6]. - The company is viewed as a key beneficiary of China's economic recovery and global expansion in 2025, despite facing some challenges from tariffs affecting approximately 5% of its revenue exposure to the U.S. [5]. Financial Summary - For FY24, revenue is projected to increase by 6% to Rmb78 billion, with net profit expected to reach Rmb5.84 billion, reflecting a 30% increase year-over-year [5]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including an EPS forecast of Rmb0.69 for FY24, with a projected increase to Rmb1.28 by FY26 [2]. - The gross profit margin for 4Q24 was reported at 22%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-over-year, but the core business gross profit margin is expected to improve to 28% in 2024 when excluding GAAP effects [5][6]. Price Target and Market Metrics - The price target for Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. is set at Rmb24.00, representing a 25% upside from the closing price of Rmb19.19 on April 18, 2025 [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of Rmb162.84 billion and an average daily trading value of Rmb1.088 billion [2].

Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [6] - Industry View: Attractive [6] - Price Target: Rmb122.00 [6] Core Insights - Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co Ltd reported robust results for 4Q24, with a net profit of Rmb455 million, reflecting a 23.6% quarter-on-quarter and 12.2% year-on-year increase [9] - The company aims for 20-30% year-on-year revenue and shipment growth in FY25, with overseas sales projected to exceed Rmb1 billion [9][3] - The company is expanding its production capabilities, including plans for a factory in the US to meet localized procurement demands [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 net profit was Rmb1.47 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 27.3% in 4Q24, an increase of 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9] - The FY24 dividend was Rmb2 per share, yielding 1.8% with a payout ratio of 36.9% [9] Market Expansion - Overseas sales are targeted to grow significantly, from Rmb574 million in 2024 to over Rmb1 billion in 2025 [3] - The Germany factory is expected to become profitable in 2Q25, while the US and Malaysia factories are anticipated to start generating sales in 2026 [3] Product Development - Kedali is focusing on humanoid robots as a significant industrial opportunity and is expanding its reducer capacity based on customer demand [4] - The company has initiated R&D on products beyond reducers, indicating a diversification strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Sieyuan Electric with a price target of Rmb 85.00 by December 2025 [19][27]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric's FY24 results were in line with expectations, with new orders guidance for FY25 projected to grow by 25%, which is above consensus estimates of approximately 20% [2][3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by approximately 45% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall growth [2][4]. - Despite strong financial performance, there are concerns regarding the management's decision to limit disclosures about its by-product segments for FY24, which raises questions about transparency [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - New orders for FY24 grew by approximately 30% year-on-year to around Rmb 21.5 billion, surpassing the target of 25% growth [3]. - Overall revenue growth reached 30% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by about 50% year-on-year in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2 percentage points to 31% in 2024, driven by better domestic margins and higher contributions from overseas sales [5]. Expenses and Provisions - Selling expenses rose by 32% year-on-year in 2024, attributed to increased marketing efforts and share options impact [6]. - The company made Rmb 107 million in goodwill provisions in 2024, primarily related to its supercapacitor business [6][10]. Future Guidance - Sieyuan Electric is guiding for a revenue of Rmb 18.5 billion in FY25, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [17]. - The company anticipates new orders to reach Rmb 26.8 billion in FY25, maintaining a growth rate of 25% [17]. Market Position and Outlook - Sieyuan Electric is positioned to benefit from China's elevated transmission and distribution capital expenditure, as well as from global trends in transmission capex and transformer shortages [19]. - The report suggests that the market reaction to the company's guidance will likely be positive, given the strong outlook for new orders [13].