[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

金融股与科技股领跌，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下一年来最大月度跌幅。 *银行与科技承压 *10年期国债收益率自去年11月底以来首次跌破4% *现货黄金连续第七个月录得上涨 美国股市周五收低，金融股与科技股双双承压，投资者在人工智能扰动、通胀数据不及预期和地缘政治风险升温等多重不确定性中选择减仓。标普500指数 与纳斯达克指数录得一年来最大单月跌幅，三大股指周线亦明显走弱。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌521.28点，跌幅1.05%，收于48977.92点；标普500指数下跌29.98点，跌幅0.43%，收于6878.88点；纳斯达克指数下跌210.17 点，跌幅0.92%，收于22668.21点。 本周，道指累计下跌1.31%，单周跌幅为去年11月中旬以来最大，同期纳指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.44%。 在2月份，道指小幅上涨0.17%，勉强实现连续第10个月上涨。纳指下跌3.38%，标普500指数下跌0.87%，均为2025年3月以来最大月度跌幅。 【热门股表现】 经济数据方面，美国劳工统计局周五公布数据显示，1月生产者价格指数（PPI）经季节性调整后环比上涨0.5%，高于市场预期的0.3% ...

2026.02.28 科技板块继续拖累指数表现，英伟达延续此前一日颓势重挫4.2%，此前一日已跌5.5%，显示投资者对 人工智能相关资本支出与回报周期的不确定性保持谨慎。特斯拉跌1.49%，微软跌2.24%，苹果跌 3.21%，谷歌-A涨1.42%，亚马逊涨1.00%，谷歌-C涨1.39%，Meta跌1.34%，博通跌0.67%。 | 苹果(APPLE) | 264.180 | -3.21% | | --- | --- | --- | | US AAPL | 263.800 | -0.14% 盘后 | | 脸书(META PLATFORM | 648.180 | -1.34% | | US META | 646.750 | -0.22% 盘后 | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 311.430 | 1.39% | | US GOOG | 309.820 | -0.52% 益后 | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 392.740 | -2.24% | | US MSFT | 395.056 | 0.59% 盘后 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 210.000 | 1.00% | | US AMZN ...

相比之下，美股表现分化，道琼斯工业平均小幅上涨1.24%，而标普500、纳斯达克指数和纳斯达克100 则出现回调，分别下跌0.43%、2.49%和2.03%。 A股站稳4160点，4股翻倍 A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指2月累涨1.09%站稳4160点；港股则表现疲软，三大指数均下挫，其中恒生 科技指数大跌超10%，成为全球主要股指中表现最差的指数之一。 海外市场方面，委内瑞拉股市2月累涨82.77%位居全球主要股指涨幅榜第一；韩国综合指数 （+19.52%）、泰国SET指数（+15.69%）、台湾加权指数（+10.45%）和日经 225（+10.37%）表现亮 眼，亚洲市场整体强于欧美。 2月A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指月内累涨1.09%报4162点，深证成指涨2.04%报14495点，创业板指跌 1.08%报3310点。 2月收官！全球主要股指表现分化明显。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | 5日涨跌幅 月初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | ○ 26630.54 | +249.5 ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 2月27日，港股收盘，恒生指数收涨0.95%，恒生科技指数收涨0.56%，国企指数收涨0.51%。南向资金 净流入超140亿港元。 科技巨头方面，腾讯涨超1%，美团、京东、百度等齐涨，阿里一度涨超1.7%，但尾盘转跌。光通信、 钢铁、有色、稀土、创新药板块集体大涨。长飞光纤光缆涨近10%，马鞍山钢铁涨6.6%，金力永磁涨 6.7%，中国神华涨近6%，昭衍新药涨6%，康希诺生物涨7%，药明生物涨超3%。 | 1 | 长飞光纤光缆 | 148.800 +10.059% 91.01亿 | | --- | --- | --- | | -7 06869 | | | | 2 | 腾讯控股 | 518.000 +1.172% 167.76亿 | | ▼1 | 00700 | | | 3 | 小米集团-W | 34.900 -0.796% 47.64亿 | | ▼1 | 01810 | | | 4 | 阿里巴巴－W | 142.900 -0.070% 127.42亿 | | =1 09988 | | | | 5 | 微博-SW | 79.250 +1.668% 901.71万 | | | 09898 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.39% closing at 4162 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.04% [1] - Rare metal stocks experienced a surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Hunan Gold, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten, among others [1] - Tungsten prices have skyrocketed, prompting downstream hard alloy manufacturers to raise prices, with companies like Xinrui Co. and Huarui Precision announcing price adjustments [1] Group 2 - The computing power leasing sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Yuntian Lifa and Tuowei Information hitting the daily limit up [2] - Hetzner, a major European data center operator, announced a price increase for all products and services effective April 1, marking the second price hike within the month [2] Group 3 - YN Energy Holdings saw a significant increase of 115%, ranking first in monthly gains [3] - Limin Co., a leading pesticide manufacturer, announced a long-term supply contract with Bayer, with an estimated contract value of 800 million yuan over three years [3] - The glass fiber sector faced declines, with companies like International Composites dropping nearly 10% [3] Group 4 - Hong Kong's innovative drug sector rebounded, with companies like WuXi AppTec and CanSino Biologics seeing gains of nearly 8% and over 6% respectively [4] - The recent adjustment in the innovative drug and CRO sectors is viewed as a short-term correction, not affecting the long-term growth prospects of the industry [4]

2026.02.27 在中国本土仿制药以及国际减重药巨头的双重竞争的挑战下，诺和诺德的股价过去五个交易日累计下跌超过20%，近一个月来股价下跌超过44%，目前市 值不到1300亿美元，本周市值就蒸发约350亿美元。 中国市场是诺和诺德除美国市场之外最为关键的市场，也是全球减重药最大的市场之一。但中国市场也充满激烈的竞争，尤其是近年来日益崛起的电商平 台，已经成为减重药这类消费属性极强的药品的下一个竞技场。 本文字数：922，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经钱童心 随着减重药巨头诺和诺德重磅GLP-1类药物司美格鲁肽在中国的核心分子专利即将于3月到期，一大批中国本土的司美格鲁肽仿制药正在获批路上。 2月27日港股开盘后，九源基因（2566.HK）股价一度上涨超过4%。该公司日前公告称，司美格鲁肽生物类似药吉可亲上市申请已获中国国家药监局正式 受理，本次申报的适应症为肥胖或超重人群的体重管理。 据公开信息，目前国内市场上包括九源基因、丽珠集团、华东医药、齐鲁制药、正大天晴在内的十多家本土制药公司的司美格鲁肽仿制药有望在不久的将 来上市，还有十余款处于三期临床，一场价格大战即将席卷。 针对市场关注的仿制药疗效， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows a slight upward trend but remains weak overall, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing minor gains [1][2]. Company Performance - Baidu Group (HK09888) reported a total revenue of 129.1 billion yuan for 2025, with AI business revenue reaching 40 billion yuan; in Q4 2025, total revenue was 32.7 billion yuan, with AI business income accounting for 43% of general business revenue, exceeding market expectations [4]. - BeiGene (HK06160) achieved its first annual profit, with total revenue of 38.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%; product revenue reached 37.77 billion yuan, up 39.9%, driven by sales growth of drugs like Zebrutinib and Tislelizumab, with sales from licensed products from Amgen amounting to 3.471 billion yuan, a 33.6% increase [4]. - Tencent Holdings (HK00700) saw a slight rebound in early trading, with a gain of 1.07% [4]. Market Trends - Tencent's app, Tencent Yuanbao, re-entered the top 10 of the Apple App Store free app rankings, indicating a recovery in user demand post-Spring Festival [5]. - The technology sector stocks collectively rebounded, with Alibaba and JD.com showing slight increases, while the automotive sector weakened, with NIO dropping nearly 1% [5]. IPO Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express optimism regarding the Hong Kong IPO market for 2026, with UBS predicting a financing scale exceeding 300 billion HKD and around 150-200 listings [6]. - Huatai Securities estimates the main board IPO financing scale at approximately 310 billion HKD, with around 100 new companies [6]. - Deloitte forecasts about 160 new listings in the Hong Kong stock market, with a financing amount not less than 300 billion HKD [6]. - PwC anticipates around 150 new listings, with total fundraising between 320 billion to 350 billion HKD, potentially ranking among the top three globally [6]. - Analysts from China Merchants Securities note that the current valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is at a historical low, suggesting it is undervalued in the context of the AI development and technology-driven growth era [6].

Market Performance - On February 26, the Hang Seng Index closed down 384 points (1.4%) at 26,381 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 151 points (2.9%) to 5,109 points[1] - Total market turnover increased to HKD 259.3 billion from HKD 236.8 billion the previous day[1] - Net outflow of southbound funds was HKD 7.37 billion[1] Sector Highlights - The internet sector led declines, with Alibaba (9988 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), and Tencent (700 HK) dropping 2%-4%[1] - The electrical equipment sector saw gains, with Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) rising 15.5%, and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) and Shanghai Electric (2727 HK) increasing by 3%-7%[1] - Hong Kong property stock Hysan Development (14 HK) fell 6.9% after reporting a 1.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 1.9% decrease in recurring profit[1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) reported a 15% year-on-year increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding market expectations, with a full-year net profit growth of 36%[1] U.S. Market Overview - Concerns over excessive AI capital expenditure led to significant declines in tech stocks, with Nvidia (NVDA US) closing down 5.5% despite better-than-expected earnings and outlook[2] - The Dow Jones Index rose 17 points (0.03%) to 49,000, while the Nasdaq Index fell 273 points (1.2%) to 28,878, and the S&P 500 Index dropped 37 points to 6,908[2] Macro Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, major retail enterprises in China reported a 24% year-on-year increase in daily retail sales, indicating sustained consumer potential[3] - Gold and jewelry sales saw a significant increase, with daily retail sales rising 33.4% year-on-year during the same period[3] Industry Insights - The restaurant sector saw a low double-digit same-store sales growth for Guoquan (2517 HK) during the Spring Festival, with expected net profit growth of 84%-92% year-on-year[4] - Macau's gaming sector underperformed, with average daily revenue during the Spring Festival falling below market expectations, leading to declines in stocks like Sands China (1928 HK) and MGM (2282 HK) by 1.2%-1.7%[4] - The healthcare sector faced a 4.5% decline in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, with concerns over price competition following Novo Nordisk's announcement to reduce wholesale prices of its products in the U.S.[4]

今日热点导览 德国总理默茨参访宇树科技 魅族被曝大量欠款成坏账 特斯拉中国官宣5年0息方案 携程集团总裁、董事双双辞职 微信上线新功能：同一文件多聊转发不重复占存储 TOP3大新闻 巨亏1800亿元，玛莎拉蒂母公司业绩爆雷 全球第四大汽车制造商Stellantis在2025年经历了一场代价沉重的战略转身。该公司2月26日发布的财报 显示，全年净亏损高达223亿欧元（以当前汇率计算约为1802亿人民币），这主要源于下半年启动业务 重组产生的254亿欧元非常规费用。尽管全年数据承压，但下半年运营已出现回暖信号，营收恢复增 长，现金流状况较上半年大幅改善。这家拥有Jeep、玛莎拉蒂、标致、雪铁龙等14个品牌的汽车巨头， 在2025年净营收录得1535亿欧元，同比微降2%。该公司解释称，外汇因素影响及上半年新车价格下降 是影响营收的主要原因。 此外，2025年全球车企销量排行最终尘埃落定。丰田、大众、现代汽车、通用汽车依旧占据前四；凭借 去年下半年11%的同比增幅，Stellantis集团以逾540万辆的销量继续位居全球第五；中国车企则有比亚 迪、上汽集团和吉利控股三家上榜，且排名均有所提升；而去年进入榜单的日产汽车 ...