智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，维持腾讯控股(00700)“跑赢行业”评级，基本维持2024/2025年收入及盈利预测不变，目标价418港元。腾讯4Q23收入同增7%至1,552亿元，基本符合该行预期，低于市场预期1.4%;Non-IFRS净利润同增44%至427亿元，分别高于该行及市场预期6.9%/1.7%，主要因广告及金融和企业服务业务毛利率高于预期。 中金主要观点如下： 受益于视频号商业化潜力挖掘，广告收入强劲。 公司4Q23广告业务收入同增21%至298亿元，主要系视频号广告需求提升以及AI模型推动广告平台持续升级，公司表示2023年视频号总时长同比翻倍。从行业看，除汽车疲软外，其他行业在腾讯广告内投放均出现同比增长，尤其是互联网服务、健康、消费等行业。受益于视频号的增长杠杆及AI实现的效率提升，广告毛利率环比提升4.5 ppt至56.8%。进入2024，该行预计视频号仍将作为贡献广告收入的主要增量，该行预计1Q24广告收入同比增速有望达到18%。 金融和企业服务业务表现稳健。 公司4Q23金融和企业服务收入同增15%至544亿元——金融业务实现双位数同比增长，主要系商业支付和金融衍生产品(财 ...

[Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% (100) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 17Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3 网络游戏收入（亿元） 同比增长（右轴） 图7：腾讯游戏收入及增速推移（17Q1-23Q4） 图8：腾讯社交网络业务收入及增速推移（17Q1-23Q4） 数据来源：公司财报，广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：公司财报，广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2 / 10 [Table_PageText] 腾讯控股|季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-------------------|-------|--------|--------|----------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][13]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's focus on enhancing shareholder returns and the development of evergreen games [1]. - It notes a significant improvement in gross margin and an increase in sales expenses, with plans for a substantial increase in share buybacks in 2024 [13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gaming revenue in 2024, driven by the launch of new games and improved performance in the domestic market [13]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2023, Tencent reported revenue of 155.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a NON-IFRS net profit of 42.7 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year [4]. - The full-year revenue for 2023 reached 609 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, with a NON-IFRS net profit of 157.7 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year [4]. - The report provides projections for future financial performance, estimating NON-IFRS net profits of 180.8 billion yuan, 205.9 billion yuan, and 232.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [13]. Key Business Segments - **Gaming**: Q4 2023 gaming revenue was 40.9 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, with expectations for improvement in 2024 due to new game launches [13]. - **Advertising**: Q4 2023 advertising revenue reached 29.8 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising technology [13]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue in this segment was 54.4 billion yuan for Q4 2023, marking a 15% year-on-year growth, supported by commercial payment and cloud service growth [13].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 腾讯控股（00700） 公司研究/港股点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|------------------------|---------| | | | | | [Table_Rank] | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | 报告日期： | 2024-3-20 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | | 288 | | 近 12 个月最高 / | 最低（港元） | 395/260 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 9432 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 9432 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | | 27,239 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | | 27,239 | [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com 1.23Q3 腾讯点评：社交商业化提速， 期待《元梦之星》, 231120 ⚫[Table_Summary] ...

岳铮，传媒互联网行业分析师，约翰霍普金斯大学硕士，于 2020 年加入银河证券研究院投资研究部。 普通股股本储备 813,331 992,880 1,192,184 1,407,148 免责声明 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究院 机构请致电： | | | 深圳市福田区金田路 3088 号中洲大厦 20 层 | 深广地区： | | 上海浦东新区富城路 99 号震旦大厦 31 层 | 上海地区： | | 北京市丰台区西营街 8 号院 1 号楼青海金融大厦 | 北京地区： | | 公司网址：www.chinastock.com.cn | | 现金 172,320 401,505 664,612 933,542 其他收入 342 0 0 0 资产总计 1,577,246 1,917,335 2,178,570 2,432,023 净利润 118,048 180,910 200,965 216,864 [联系Table_Contacts] 非流动负债 3 ...

互联网 2024 年 3 月 21 日 4 季度运营要点：1）社交网络收入同比降 2%，因直播服务调整，但部分 被视频号直播、音乐付费和小游戏收入增长抵消。小游戏 2023 年流水增 50%+。2）游戏业务运营稳定，收入降 1%，本土游戏降 3%，主要因《王 者荣耀》和《和平精英》增长承压，海外增 1%，受 Supercell 部分游戏调 整影响。3）广告增长受视频号及搜一搜新广告库存拉动明显，视频号用 户使用时长全年同比增 100%+，广告收入 4 季度同比翻倍，得益于点击率 提升。4）金融科技维持同比双位数增长，受支付及财富管理拉动；企业 服务增 20%，视频号直播服务费贡献及云服务调整重组后收入稳定增长。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8045 2024 年 3 月 21 日 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https:// ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - No specific financial data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - No specific business line data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Market Data and Key Metrics - No specific market data or key metrics changes mentioned in the provided content [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - No specific company strategy or industry competition details mentioned in the provided content [1] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - No specific management commentary on the operating environment or future outlook mentioned in the provided content [1] Other Important Information - The webinar is for Tencent Holdings Limited 2023 Fourth Quarter and Annual Results Announcement [1] - Participants are in listen-only mode during the management's presentation [1] - A question and answer session will follow the management's presentation [1] Q&A Session Summary - No questions or answers provided in the content [1]

Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to RMB 609.015 billion in 2023, compared to RMB 554.552 billion in 2022[1] - Gross profit grew by 23% to RMB 293.109 billion in 2023, up from RMB 238.746 billion in 2022[1] - Non-IFRS operating profit rose by 34% to RMB 191.886 billion in 2023, compared to RMB 143.203 billion in 2022[1] - Gross profit for the full year 2023 increased by 23% year-over-year to RMB 293.1 billion, with gross margin improving from 43% to 48%[34] - Operating profit for 2023 stood at RMB 160.074 billion, up from RMB 110.827 billion in 2022[102] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 115.216 billion in 2023, down from RMB 188.243 billion in 2022[102] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 12.186, compared to RMB 19.757 in 2022[102] - Total revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 155.196 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase from RMB 144.954 billion in Q4 2022[108] - Non-IFRS operating profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 49.135 billion, a 35% increase from RMB 36.424 billion in Q4 2022[108] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to RMB 59.494 billion in Q4 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 38%[58] Gaming and Value-Added Services - International market games accounted for 30% of total gaming revenue in 2023, a new high[4] - Mini-games total revenue grew by over 50% in 2023, solidifying its position as China's leading casual gaming platform[7] - Value-added services business revenue for Q4 2023 decreased by 2% year-over-year to RMB 69.1 billion, with international market gaming revenue growing by 1% to RMB 13.9 billion[28] - Value-added services business revenue for the full year 2023 increased by 4% year-over-year to RMB 298.4 billion, with international market gaming revenue growing by 14% to RMB 53.2 billion[29] - Value-added services business achieved a gross profit of RMB 161.9 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023, an 11% YoY increase, with gross margin rising from 51% to 54%[36] - Value-added services gross profit in Q4 2023 grew 6% YoY to RMB 37.1 billion, with gross margin improving from 50% to 54% due to higher-margin game platform fees[53] - Value-added services revenue decreased by 9% YoY to RMB 69.1 billion, with international game revenue growing 5% QoQ to RMB 13.9 billion, while domestic game revenue declined 18% QoQ to RMB 27 billion[55] Advertising and Online Services - Network advertising revenue grew by 23% year-over-year to RMB 101.5 billion in 2023, driven by new ad inventory from Video Accounts and Weixin Search[16] - Online advertising business gross profit grew 47% YoY to RMB 51.3 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023, with gross margin increasing from 42% to 51%[36] - Online advertising revenue in Q4 2023 grew 21% YoY to RMB 29.8 billion, driven by strong demand for video account ads and platform upgrades[48] - Online advertising gross profit in Q4 2023 surged 55% YoY to RMB 16.9 billion, with gross margin rising from 44% to 57% due to video account ad growth[53] - Online advertising revenue grew 16% YoY to RMB 29.8 billion in Q4 2023, driven by platform upgrades and increased ad inventory[62] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services business gross profit increased by 38% year-over-year to RMB 80.6 billion, with gross margin rising from 33% to 40%[23] - Financial technology and enterprise services business revenue for the full year 2023 increased by 15% year-over-year to RMB 203.8 billion, driven by growth in payment activities and wealth management services[33] - Fintech and business services revenue in Q4 2023 increased 15% YoY to RMB 54.4 billion, supported by growth in commercial payment activities and cloud services[48] - Fintech and business services gross profit in Q4 2023 increased 50% YoY to RMB 23.9 billion, with gross margin improving from 34% to 44%[53] - Fintech and business services revenue increased 4% YoY to RMB 54.4 billion in Q4 2023, supported by seasonal growth in cloud services and increased payment activities[62] Expenses and Costs - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 17% year-over-year to RMB 34.2 billion, accounting for 6% of revenue compared to 5% in the previous year[23] - General and administrative expenses decreased by 3% year-over-year to RMB 103.5 billion, accounting for 17% of revenue compared to 19% in the previous year[23] - Sales and marketing expenses in Q4 2023 grew 79% YoY to RMB 11 billion, accounting for 7% of revenue, up from 4% in the same period last year[40] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 39% QoQ to RMB 11 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting higher game promotion and advertising efforts[65] - R&D expenses for 2023 amounted to RMB 64.078 billion, a 4.4% increase from RMB 61.401 billion in 2022, with employee benefits accounting for RMB 52.416 billion[87] - Expenses related to SSV and CPP projects (excluding share-based compensation) were RMB 998 million in 2023, up from RMB 726 million in 2022[88] Investments and Financial Assets - Net investment loss and other amounted to RMB 6.1 billion, primarily due to impairment provisions for certain investee companies[23] - Interest income increased by 61% year-over-year to RMB 13.8 billion, driven by higher cash reserves and increased yields on term deposits[25] - Share of profits/(losses) of associates and joint ventures turned to a profit of RMB 5.8 billion from a loss of RMB 16.1 billion in the previous year[25] - The company made impairment provisions totaling RMB 6.847 billion for associates showing signs of impairment, with most of the recoverable amounts determined using fair value less costs of disposal[125] - New investments and additional investments in financial assets, including those in electronic payment, game development, and e-commerce, amounted to approximately RMB 53.276 billion[128] - The fair value of financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income decreased by RMB 1.954 billion in 2023, compared to a decrease of RMB 7.117 billion in 2022[128] - Investments in associates increased to RMB 253.696 billion in 2023 from RMB 246.043 billion in 2022, with listed associates contributing RMB 132.776 billion and unlisted associates RMB 120.920 billion[163] - The company made new and additional investments totaling approximately RMB 8.454 billion in 2023, primarily in e-commerce, fintech services, and other internet-related businesses[169] Dividends and Share Repurchases - The company plans to increase its share repurchase program to over HKD 100 billion in 2024, more than double the HKD 49 billion in 2023[9] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 3.40 per share for 2023, a 42% increase from HKD 2.40 per share in 2022[2] - The company distributed a dividend of approximately RMB 115.8 billion in the form of physical shares, with a fair value change of RMB 30 billion recognized in equity due to the fluctuation in the fair value of Meituan shares from January 1, 2023, to the distribution date[121] - The company repurchased and canceled shares worth RMB 4.74 billion during the year[142] User Metrics and Engagement - Video accounts' total user time doubled in 2023, driven by increased daily active accounts and average usage time per user[4] - Tencent Video reached 117 million paying members and TME reached 107 million paying members by the end of 2023[8] - Combined monthly active users of WeChat and WeChat reached 1,343 million at the end of 2023, a 2% increase from 1,313 million at the end of 2022[190] - QQ's mobile monthly active users decreased by 3% to 554 million at the end of 2023 from 572 million at the end of 2022[190] - Paid value-added service registered accounts increased by 6% to 248 million at the end of 2023 from 234 million at the end of 2022[190] Financial Position and Assets - Total assets decreased slightly from RMB 1,578,131 million in 2022 to RMB 1,577,246 million in 2023[75] - Intangible assets increased significantly from RMB 161,802 million in 2022 to RMB 177,727 million in 2023, a growth of approximately 9.8%[75] - Investments in associates rose from RMB 246,043 million in 2022 to RMB 253,696 million in 2023, an increase of about 3.1%[75] - Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss increased from RMB 206,085 million in 2022 to RMB 211,145 million in 2023, up by approximately 2.5%[75] - Cash and cash equivalents grew from RMB 156,739 million in 2022 to RMB 172,320 million in 2023, an increase of around 9.9%[75] - The company's equity attributable to owners of the company decreased from RMB 806,299 million in 2022 to RMB 721,391 million in 2023[77] - Retained earnings increased from RMB 669,911 million in 2022 to RMB 705,981 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 5.4%[77] - The company's financial assets at fair value through other comprehensive income decreased from RMB 185,247 million in 2022 to RMB 213,951 million in 2023, a significant increase of about 15.5%[75] - The company's total equity decreased from RMB 876,693 million in 2022 to RMB 782,860 million in 2023[77] - Total assets at the end of 2023 were RMB 213,951 million, compared to RMB 185,247 million at the end of 2022, representing an increase of 15.5%[182] Debt and Borrowings - The company's total bank borrowings increased to RMB 41,537 million at the end of 2023 from RMB 11,580 million at the end of 2022[196] - RMB bank borrowings increased to RMB 46.015 billion at the end of 2023 from RMB 22.514 billion at the end of 2022, with interest rates ranging from 2.45% to 4.60%[200] - USD bank borrowings decreased to USD 17.75 billion at the end of 2023 from USD 20.998 billion at the end of 2022, with interest rates based on SOFR plus 0.80% to 0.95%[200] - JPY bank borrowings decreased to JPY 894 million at the end of 2023 from JPY 1.25 billion at the end of 2022, with interest rates ranging from 0.00% to 1.86%[200] - EUR bank borrowings decreased to EUR 2 million at the end of 2023 from EUR 3 million at the end of 2022, with interest rates ranging from 1.00% to 2.54%[200] - Long-term USD bank borrowings (unsecured) decreased to RMB 109.782 billion in 2023 from RMB 141.090 billion in 2022[179] - All USD LIBOR-based borrowings were transitioned to SOFR-based by July 2023[180] Other Financial Metrics - Net fair value loss on financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss was RMB 2.886 billion in 2023, a significant decrease from RMB 7.737 billion in 2022[91] - The company's intangible assets amortization related to acquisitions was approximately RMB 5.019 billion in 2023, slightly down from RMB 5.197 billion in 2022[136] - The company recorded a penalty related to Tenpay of RMB 2.995 billion in 2023, which was not present in the previous year[137] - The total segment revenue for the year was RMB 554.552 billion, with the largest segment contributing RMB 287.565 billion[138] - The total amortization expense across all segments was RMB 29.511 billion, with the largest segment accounting for RMB 19.320 billion[139] - The company granted a total of 17,221,857 share options in 2023, with an average exercise price of HKD 334.04[133] - The number of awarded shares at the end of 2023 was 132,989,249, an increase from 123,861,178 at the end of 2022[135] - Total equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 873.681 billion, with retained earnings of RMB 813.911 billion[142] - Comprehensive income for the year was RMB 107.182 billion, including annual profit of RMB 115.216 billion[142] - Employee benefits expenses for the year included share-based compensation of RMB 22.782 billion, with RMB 63 million related to SSV and CPP employees[150] - The company recorded a net loss of RMB 1.295 billion due to the dilution of equity interests in certain associates[153] - The company reclassified certain items in the consolidated income statement to better reflect operational performance and investment-related income[145] - The company applied temporary exceptions for deferred tax accounting related to Pillar Two supplementary tax following the amendment of IAS 12[147] - The company's share premium decreased to RMB 37.989 billion by the end of 2023, down from RMB 62.418 billion at the start of the year[142] - The company's non-controlling interests increased to RMB 65.09 billion by the end of 2023, up from RMB 61.469 billion at the start of the year[142] - The company's total comprehensive income for the year included a net loss of RMB 737 million from the fair value changes of assets held for distribution[142] - The company's share of losses from associates and joint ventures, including impairment provisions for investments, goodwill, and other intangible assets, amounted to RMB 1.933 billion in 2023, compared to RMB 3.201 billion in 2022[154] - The company's share of amortization of intangible assets from acquisitions was RMB 5.250 billion in 2023, down from RMB 6.621 billion in 2022[154] - Share-based compensation expenses decreased to RMB 4.984 billion in 2023 from RMB 7.063 billion in 2022[154] - The company's basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 12.186, a decrease from RMB 19.757 in 2022[158] - The company proposed a final dividend of HK$3.40 per share for 2023, up from HK$2.40 per share in 2022[161] - Accounts payable increased to RMB 100.948 billion in 2023 from RMB 92.381 billion in 2022, with the majority (RMB 94.537 billion) due within 0-30 days[177] - Revenue costs for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 3,159 billion, remaining stable year-over-year[189]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) with a target price of 430 HKD [3] Core Views - Despite the underperformance of "Dream Star" (Yuan Meng Zhi Xing), Tencent's competitive advantage in high-DAU games remains intact [3] - Tencent has multiple high-potential games scheduled for release in 2024 and beyond, including "DNF Mobile," "Assassin's Creed Jade," and "Delta Force" [3] - Tencent's 3Q23 Non-IFRS net profit showed significant growth, and the company is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and operational leverage optimization [3] - The report forecasts Tencent's Non-IFRS net profit for 2023-2025 at 1,543 3B, 1,843 5B, and 2,042 3B RMB, respectively, with corresponding Non-IFRS P/E ratios of 17x, 14x, and 13x [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 5,601 2B RMB in 2021 to 7,488 7B RMB in 2025, with a CAGR of 7 6% [6] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to increase from 1,237 9B RMB in 2021 to 2,042 3B RMB in 2025, with a CAGR of 13 2% [6] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to rise from 1,752B RMB in 2021 to 2,264B RMB in 2025 [6] Game Business Analysis - "Dream Star" initially performed well but saw a decline in revenue during the Spring Festival period, with daily estimated revenue dropping to 223K USD in February 2024, compared to "Eggy Party's" 880K USD [55] - "Dream Star" has an older user base compared to "Eggy Party," with 25 77% of users aged 24-30, while "Eggy Party" has a higher female user ratio at 61% [12][58] - Tencent's game pipeline for 2024 includes "DNF Mobile," which is expected to contribute stable profits, and "Assassin's Creed Jade," a mobile adaptation of the popular IP [3][86] Market Competition - "Eggy Party" has a more established player community and richer UGC content, giving it an edge over "Dream Star" [100] - The competition between Tencent and NetEase in the party game segment has raised the ceiling for the genre, with new entrants expected to explore niche markets [73] Future Outlook - Tencent's game business is expected to benefit from the release of high-potential titles like "DNF Mobile" and "Assassin's Creed Jade," which could drive revenue growth and restore market confidence [3][86] - The company's investment in game development and overseas expansion, particularly through Level Infinite, is expected to strengthen its position in the global gaming market [88][110]

游戏改善确定性强；广告商业化进程明确；视频号电商初具规模 业绩会中，管理层应该会就明年游戏爆款新品做出新的展望。公司国内游戏收入 受到整个游戏行业流水水平恢复，Q4《王者荣耀》《英雄联盟手游》等环比有所 回暖。海外游戏持续贡献收入，预计海外游戏全年可以维持稳定增长。新游产品 方面，《元梦之星》数据有望在 24 年跑通并显现增量优势，有望成为未来现金牛 的重磅手游，拓宽强社交属性类派对游戏赛道。《DNF 手游》获得版号，后续有 望成为 DAU 爆款手游。 广告业务在视频号高速发展加上运营优化双重加持下将同比上升，主要源于广告 主的投放意愿提高和视频号等商业化程度加深。尤其是腾讯和阿里深化广告商业 化合作，加上 AI 技术赋能提高用户投放精准度。 李京霖 Jinglin.Li@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 股价 285 港元 已发行股本 94.32 亿股 公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700）：2023 年第四季度及全年财务一致预期 3 月 20 日，腾讯宣布将于 3 月 20 日发布 2023 年第四季度及 ...