Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 5.68 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a global package volume of 6.6 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. The Southeast Asian market led this growth with a 50.0% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 26.5% increase [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by Southeast Asia's consumer market and efficiency improvements in China, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.728 billion in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 240.1%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.30, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.7 for 2025, 11.4 for 2026, and 8.0 for 2027 [5][7]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 22% in 2023, 16% in 2024, and 13% in subsequent years [7][9]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 10.434 billion by 2027 [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the operational adjustments made in response to seasonal demand, including the addition of 400 new outlets and 1,000 new vehicles in Southeast Asia, while optimizing the network in China [8]. - The Southeast Asian market's consumer activity and e-commerce penetration are expected to continue driving package volume growth, while efficiency improvements in China are anticipated to enhance profitability [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jitu Express-W has been actively repurchasing its shares, with a total of 1,651.10 million shares repurchased this year, amounting to 9,560.83 million HKD [1][2] - On April 1, the company repurchased 1.11 million shares at a price range of 5.520 to 5.570 HKD, totaling 6.1662 million HKD, while the stock closed at 5.530 HKD, down 2.30% for the day [1][2] - Since March 28, the company has conducted share buybacks for three consecutive days, repurchasing a total of 2.47 million shares for a cumulative amount of 13.8784 million HKD, during which the stock price has decreased by 4.33% [1][2] Group 2 - The detailed buyback history shows that the highest repurchase price was 6.140 HKD and the lowest was 5.520 HKD during the recent buyback activities [2] - The company has executed multiple buybacks, with the largest single-day repurchase being 2.10 million shares on March 25, totaling 11,687.1 million HKD [2] - The buyback activity reflects the company's strategy to support its stock price amid market fluctuations [1][2]

Operational Performance - In Southeast Asia, the parcel volume increased by 41% year-on-year, with non-e-commerce parcels becoming a significant growth point for the company[6]. - In China, the parcel volume grew by 29% year-on-year, surpassing industry growth rates, and the company has started to achieve profitability[7]. - The company achieved a global single-day parcel volume exceeding 100 million during the 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival, showcasing its operational capabilities[7]. - The company reported achieving profitability globally in 2024, marking a significant milestone in its operational journey[6]. - In 2024, the company processed a total of 24.65 billion packages, representing a 31.0% increase from 18.81 billion packages in 2023[39]. - The company's market share in Southeast Asia reached 28.6% in 2024, up from 25.4% in 2023, with package volume growing by 40.8% year-over-year[39]. - In China, the company handled 19.80 billion packages in 2024, a 29.1% increase from 15.34 billion packages in 2023, with a market share of 11.3%[39]. - The new market's express delivery industry saw a total package volume of 4.59 billion in 2024, growing by 18.6% year-over-year, and is expected to reach 10.20 billion packages by 2029[35]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of $10,259,104 thousand, representing a 15.9% increase from $8,849,251 thousand in 2023[19]. - The gross profit for 2024 was $1,078,215 thousand, a significant recovery from a gross loss of $270,238 thousand in 2022[19]. - Operating profit turned positive at $210,543 thousand in 2024, compared to an operating loss of $1,766,550 thousand in 2023[19]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was $200,333 thousand, recovering from a loss of $432,277 thousand in 2023[19]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $778,279 thousand, a substantial increase from $146,694 thousand in 2023, indicating improved profitability[82]. - The company’s revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached $10,259,104 thousand, a 15.9% increase from $8,849,251 thousand in 2023[82]. - Express service revenue grew by 23.4% from $8,086.8 million in 2023 to $9,980.3 million in 2024, with total package volume increasing by 31.0% from 18.81 billion to 24.65 billion[87]. - The company reported a net profit of $150 million for 2024, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year[149]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company aims to become one of the world's leading express delivery companies within the next ten years, focusing on long-term strategic goals[8]. - The company aims to continue expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, which is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 7.0% from 2025 to 2029[20]. - The company is focused on innovation and adapting to local cultures to enhance service quality and shareholder returns[14]. - The company plans to enhance its market position in Southeast Asia and China by deepening partnerships with e-commerce platforms and optimizing customer structure[76]. - The company is strategically acquiring land in key transportation hubs to expand its transit centers and optimize routing, thereby improving overall operational efficiency[79]. - J&T Express plans to enhance its logistics network by opening 50 new distribution centers across Southeast Asia in 2025[157]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to further strengthen its market position in the region[157]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The average cost per package in Southeast Asia decreased from $0.67 in 2023 to $0.57 in 2024, reflecting a 14.9% reduction year-on-year[44][46]. - The adjusted EBIT for Southeast Asia reached $302.7 million in 2024, up 48.9% from $203.3 million in 2023, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 9.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points[47]. - The company’s competitive pricing strategy, supported by economies of scale and operational efficiencies, has enabled it to maintain a healthy and sustainable profit level in Southeast Asia[47]. - The single ticket sorting cost decreased from $0.09 in 2023 to $0.05 in 2024, indicating improved operational management[98]. - The fulfillment cost increased by 21.5% from $4,172.9 million in 2023 to $5,070.0 million in 2024, accounting for 49.4% of total revenue in 2024[106]. Technological Advancements - The company has developed a strong digital infrastructure, integrating self-built cloud computing and third-party services to empower operations in 13 countries[63]. - The company has invested in automation equipment and AI route planning technology, aiming to reduce costs in the collection and delivery process while enhancing efficiency[66]. - The company established an intelligent route planning and resource management system, optimizing transportation routes and reducing operational costs, leading to improved delivery efficiency[69]. - The company launched a "timeliness complaint" module in 2024, which monitors multidimensional data to assess delivery risks, effectively reducing complaint rates and improving delivery timeliness[71]. - The company has established a universal technology framework, JMS system, to enhance digital systems across markets, ensuring high-quality customer service and efficient financial management[62]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company has a competitive compensation structure to attract and retain high-quality talent, maintaining a stable core management team[170]. - The management team emphasizes employee training and skill development, fostering a culture that supports local market needs and strategic initiatives[75]. - The board includes independent directors with significant experience in finance and management, enhancing the company's governance[146]. - The company is committed to maintaining a robust financial position with no indications of default on its investments[134]. Sustainability and Social Responsibility - J&T Express is focusing on sustainability initiatives, with plans to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2026[157]. - The company made approximately USD 1.9 million in charitable donations during the reporting period[169]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks including reliance on the e-commerce sector, competition, and potential disruptions in logistics and technology systems[173]. - The company’s operations are significantly influenced by the development of logistics infrastructure and government policies affecting the e-commerce industry[173].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial recommendation of "Buy" for J&T Express (01519.HK) with a target price of HKD 7.69, representing a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 5.64 [2]. Core Insights - J&T Express is a global integrated logistics service provider that achieved adjusted profitability in 2024, with a net profit of USD 200 million and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.0%. This marks a significant turnaround from a loss of USD 430 million in 2023 [5][34]. - The company operates in three major markets: Southeast Asia, China, and new markets, with Southeast Asia being the primary profit contributor, while the Chinese market shows rapid improvement in profitability [5][50]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2015, J&T Express has rapidly expanded its logistics network across 13 countries, including Southeast Asia and China, utilizing a flexible regional agency model that enhances operational efficiency and reduces capital requirements [17][31]. Financial Performance - In 2024, J&T Express reported total revenue of USD 10.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.8% from 2020 to 2024. The adjusted EBITDA reached USD 780 million, reflecting a 431% increase year-on-year [6][35]. - The company achieved adjusted EBIT of USD 300 million in 2024, marking its first annual profit, with a significant improvement in cash flow from operations, which rose to USD 810 million [37][38]. Market Analysis China Market - J&T Express has established a strong presence in China, achieving a market share of 11.3% with a total volume of 19.8 billion parcels in 2024. The company’s revenue in China reached USD 6.39 billion, growing by 22.2% year-on-year [25][34]. - The growth in the Chinese market is attributed to strategic acquisitions and partnerships, particularly with Pinduoduo, which provided a substantial volume of business during its initial expansion [62][68]. Southeast Asia Market - The Southeast Asian market remains the core profit driver for J&T Express, with a market share of 28.6% and a total parcel volume of 4.56 billion in 2024. Revenue from this region was USD 3.22 billion, up 22.3% year-on-year [9][23]. - The company has maintained its leading position in Southeast Asia since 2020, benefiting from strong economic growth and a favorable demographic profile [9][50]. New Markets - J&T Express is expanding into new markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt, where it has achieved a market share of 6.1% with a parcel volume of 280 million in 2024. Revenue from these markets was USD 580 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.1% [10][26]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts J&T Express's net profits for 2025-2027 to be USD 333 million, USD 538 million, and USD 761 million, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.04, USD 0.06, and USD 0.08 [11][12]. - The valuation is based on a segmented approach, considering the differences in market dynamics and profitability across the three regions, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 69 billion by 2025 [12][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was USD 10.259 billion, with a growth rate of 15.9% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was USD 778 million, showing a significant increase of 430.5% [8] - The net profit for 2024 was USD 114 million, a turnaround from a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached USD 807 million, a year-on-year increase of 136.1% [8] Parcel Volume and Cost Control - The global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [8] - The cost per parcel in Southeast Asia decreased from USD 0.67 to USD 0.57, and in China from USD 0.34 to USD 0.30, demonstrating effective cost control [8] - Despite a slight decline in revenue per parcel due to competitive pricing adjustments, overall profitability improved due to cost reductions [8] Regional Performance - Southeast Asia remains the core market with a parcel volume of 4.56 billion pieces and a market share of 28.6% [8] - In China, the parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - New markets, including the Middle East and South America, saw revenue growth of 76.1% to USD 576 million, indicating successful market expansion efforts [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [7] - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 11.567 billion by 2027 [7] - The net profit is forecasted to increase from a loss of RMB 7.845 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.341 billion by 2027, representing a growth rate of 240.1% in 2025 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from a loss of RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 0.71 by 2027 [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.0% [8] - The Southeast Asia market remains a core area, with parcel volume reaching 4.56 billion pieces and a market share increase to 28.6% [8] - In China, parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - The company has made strategic price adjustments to expand its market share in Southeast Asia, which has slightly impacted single-ticket revenue but has improved cost efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to reach $10.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be $110 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.16 billion in the previous year, marking the first time the company has achieved profitability [2][8]. - The company's market share in Southeast Asia is rapidly increasing, with a 40.8% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 4.56 billion parcels. The market share has improved by 3.2 percentage points to 28.6%, solidifying its leading position [10]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies in new markets, leading to a significant increase in per-parcel profit margins [10]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - Business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 40.8% to 4.56 billion parcels in 2024, with market share increasing to 28.6%. The per-parcel gross profit remains stable at $0.14, with total gross profit rising by 34.6% to $630 million due to cost reductions in sorting and transportation [10]. China Market - In China, business volume is projected to grow by 29.1% to 19.8 billion parcels in 2024, benefiting from a faster growth rate than the industry average. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to increase by $0.02, resulting in a total gross profit of $420 million [10]. New Markets - Business volume in new markets is anticipated to grow by 22.1% to 28 million parcels, with market share slightly increasing to 6.1%. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to rise by $0.10 to $0.11, driven by a shift towards local non-e-commerce parcels [10]. Profitability and Future Outlook - The company is expected to leverage its unique agency model to capitalize on the global e-commerce trend, enhancing market share and profitability. Projections for net profit are $380 million, $616 million, and $859 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7, 11.0, and 7.9 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of $110 million in 2024, marking its first profit after a loss of $1.16 billion in 2023, exceeding expectations [1] - Total revenue for 2024 reached $10.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with core express service revenue growing by 23.4% to $9.98 billion [1] - The company processed 24.65 billion packages in 2024, a 31% increase year-on-year, and maintained a strong cash flow with $816 million from operating activities [2][1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of $1.08 billion, up 128% year-on-year, and an adjusted EBITDA of $780 million, a significant increase of 430.5% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 6.7% from 0.6% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability [5] Market Performance - In Southeast Asia, the company maintained its leading market share at 28.6%, with revenue of $3.22 billion, a 22.3% increase year-on-year [3] - The company processed 4.56 billion packages in Southeast Asia, a 40.8% increase, solidifying its position as the top express operator in the region [3] Operational Efficiency - The company expanded its network to approximately 19,100 outlets and operated 238 transit centers by the end of 2024 [2] - In China, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $430 million, marking its first profitability in this market [5] Future Projections - The company expects to achieve net profits of $398 million, $669 million, and $893 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 10.9, and 8.2 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.50 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a turning point in its performance, moving towards a profitable cycle, with a revenue increase of 15.9% year-on-year to 10.3 billion USD in 2024 and a net profit of 1.0 billion USD, surpassing expectations [1][5]. - The Southeast Asian business is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing penetration of e-commerce, while the Chinese operations are projected to see significant profit growth due to a low base effect [1][2][3]. - The new markets are anticipated to achieve EBITDA breakeven in 2025, following a reduction in losses in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia - In 2024, the Southeast Asian segment achieved EBIT of 300 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, driven by a 40.8% increase in parcel volume and a market share increase of 3.2 percentage points to 28.6% [2]. - The average revenue per parcel and cost per parcel decreased by 13.2% and 15.1% respectively, leading to a slight decline in gross profit margin [2]. China - The Chinese segment turned profitable in 2024 with EBIT of 150 million USD, compared to a loss of 240 million USD in the previous year, attributed to increased scale and improved capacity utilization [3]. - Parcel volume grew by 29.1%, outpacing the industry growth rate of 21.5%, with a market share increase to 11.3% [3]. New Markets - The new markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt) reported a reduced loss of 80 million USD in 2024, with a 22.1% increase in parcel volume and a market share increase to 6.1% [4]. - The average revenue per parcel increased by 44.2%, while the cost per parcel rose by 37.5%, resulting in a significant increase in gross profit [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 350 million USD for 2025 and 650 million USD for 2026, with an additional forecast of 870 million USD for 2027 [5]. - The projected EPS for 2025-2026 is 0.06 USD, with a PE ratio of 16.0x, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth rate [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company handled 24.6 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 31% [7] - Revenue reached $10.3 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 16% [7] - Adjusted EBIT was $301 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $335 million in the previous year [7] - Net profit was $114 million, representing the first full year of profitability in the company's history [7][28] - Total revenue increased by 15.9% year-on-year from $8.8 billion in 2023 to $10.3 billion in 2024 [19] - Adjusted net profit reached $200 million in 2024, a turnaround from an adjusted net loss of $432 million in 2023 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, the company handled 19.8 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with adjusted EBIT reaching $147 million [8][25] - In Southeast Asia, parcel volume increased by 41% to 4.6 billion parcels, with revenue rising by 22.3% to $3.2 billion [12][21] - New markets saw a 22% increase in parcel volume, handling 281 million parcels, with revenue growing by 76.1% to $576 million [15][25] - The cross-border business revenue decreased by 88.7% to $75 million due to a strategic shift to focus on B2B [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market share in China increased to 11.3%, while in Southeast Asia, it reached 28.6%, marking a 3.2 percentage point increase from 2023 [8][12] - The cumulative parcel volume of China's express delivery industry grew by 21.5% in 2024, indicating a robust market environment [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its market position in Southeast Asia and China while expanding into new markets [16] - Strategies include reducing costs through refined management, leveraging expertise from China, and enhancing service quality [16] - The company plans to capture changes in business flow due to e-commerce globalization and strengthen its brand [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in the express delivery industry but expressed confidence in long-term growth and profitability [17] - The company is committed to continuous self-improvement and maintaining a competitive edge in a challenging market [17] - Management expects to achieve full-year EBITDA breakeven for new markets in 2025 [55] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net cash inflow from operating activities of $807 million in 2024 [28] - Free cash flow turned positive for the first time, reaching $252 million [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance of TikTok Shop in Mexico and expectations for parcel volume growth - Management indicated that TikTok Shop began operations in Mexico in February 2025, and the performance is still in early stages [32] - The company expects meaningful contributions to parcel volume growth in new markets as operations develop [32] Question: Expectations for domestic parcel volume growth and competition in 2025 - The company reported a 29% year-on-year increase in parcel volume in China, with expectations to maintain growth despite competition [33] Question: Specific measures for cost reduction in China and future expectations - Management highlighted improvements in operational efficiency and cost optimization measures, with expectations for further reductions [36] Question: Competitive trends in the return parcel market - Management noted that return services have higher profitability than normal delivery services, and competition is expected to increase [38] Question: Business strategy in Southeast Asia and price trends - The company aims to increase market share and expects unit prices to decrease by 5% to 10% annually over the next few years [44] Question: Cash flow position and pressures from debt repayment - The company maintains a strong cash position with sufficient cash equivalents to cover interest-bearing debt, with no near-term repayment pressures [47] Question: Updates on new markets and potential opportunities - Management is optimistic about achieving breakeven in new markets by 2025 and is exploring opportunities in Latin America and the Middle East [55] Question: Year-on-year volume growth in Southeast Asia and major volume drivers - The company expects a parcel volume growth of 20% to 30% in Southeast Asia for 2025, with strong growth observed in the first two months [59] Question: CapEx adjustments in Southeast Asia - The company plans to continue investing in Southeast Asia to solidify its market leadership and capture growth opportunities [63]