食品饮料 上 市 公 司 2024 年 08 月 08 日 百威亚太 (01876) ——中国市场表现疲软 成本下降改善盈利能力 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 08 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.58 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 5941.47 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 18.30/8.68 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,268.72 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 13,243.40 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0901 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -49% -29% -9% 11% HSCEI 百威亚太 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 严泽楠 (8621)23297818× yanzn@swsresea ...

Investment Rating - Maintain NEUTRAL rating with a target price of HK$10.10 [3] Core Views - H1 revenue declined by 4.3% YoY, primarily due to weak Q2 sales in China [4] - Volume and revenue per hl in South Korea and India showed growth, contributing to margin expansion [4] - Cost reductions and premiumization strategies are expected to sustain margin improvements [4] Financial Performance - H1 sales volume decreased by 6.2% YoY to 46.6 million hl, with revenue down 7.3% YoY to $3.39bn [4] - Normalized EBITDA fell by 6.2% YoY to $1.10bn, with a margin improvement of 1.1pct to 32.4% [4] - Q2 sales volume dropped by 7.0% YoY to 25.5 million hl, with revenue down 10.6% YoY to $1.76bn [4] Regional Performance - APAC West (China): Q2 sales volume and revenue per hl declined by 10.3% and 5.4% YoY, respectively, due to industry weakness and adverse weather conditions [4] - APAC East (South Korea): Q2 revenue and profit grew by double digits, with market share recovering to 2018 levels [4] - India: Premium and above products achieved double-digit growth, capturing 2/3 of the premium market share [4] Cost and Margin Trends - Cost per hl decreased by 0.6% YoY, driven by lower commodity prices, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.6pct to 51.5% [4] - SG&A expense ratio rose by 1.2pct YoY to 30.3%, due to declining revenue [4] Earnings Forecast - EPS forecasts for 2024-26 were revised downward to HK$0.53, HK$0.56, and HK$0.60, respectively [4] - The company is expected to benefit from continued premiumization in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Valuation - The target price of HK$10.10 is based on a 19x PE multiple for 2024, down from the previous 22x [4]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Views - Eastern region shows strong growth momentum, partially offsetting pressure in the Chinese market [2] - Western region faces increased pressure in Q2 2024 [6] - Beer raw material cost pressures are gradually easing, with potential profit improvement under a low base [8] Performance Summary Revenue and EBITDA - 24H1 revenue: USD 3,399 million, organic growth -4.3% [6] - 24H1 EBITDA: USD 1,100 million, organic growth -1.0% [6] - 24Q2 revenue: USD 1,756 million, organic growth -7.8% [6] - 24Q2 EBITDA: USD 528 million, organic growth -6.2% [6] Volume and Price - 24H1 volume: 4,657,300 tons, -6.2% YoY [6] - 24Q2 volume: 2,545,800 tons, -7.3% YoY [6] - 24H1 price per ton: +2.0% YoY [6] - 24Q2 price per ton: -0.5% YoY [6] Regional Performance - Asia West: 24Q2 revenue -13.2%, EBITDA -16.3%, volume -9.0%, price per ton -4.6% [6] - Asia East: 24Q2 revenue +21.2%, EBITDA +69.6%, volume +6.0%, price per ton +14.4% [6] - China: 24H1 revenue -9.4%, EBITDA -8.3%, volume -8.5%, price per ton -1.0% [7] Cost and Profit - 24H1 cost per hectoliter: -0.6% [8] - 24H1 gross margin: 51.5%, +1.27 ppts YoY [6] - 24Q2 gross margin: 51.5%, +0.57 ppts YoY [6] Financial Forecast Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue: USD 6,873 million, +0.3% YoY [9] - 2025E revenue: USD 7,313 million, +6.4% YoY [9] - 2026E revenue: USD 7,754 million, +6.0% YoY [9] - 2024E net profit: USD 936 million, +9.9% YoY [9] - 2025E net profit: USD 1,039 million, +10.9% YoY [9] - 2026E net profit: USD 1,144 million, +10.2% YoY [9] Valuation - 2024E PE: 17x [9] - 2025E PE: 15x [9] - 2026E PE: 14x [9] Market Data - Total shares: 13,243 million [3] - Market cap: HKD 124,355 million [3] - 1-year low/high: HKD 8.68/18.34 [3] - 3-month turnover rate: 7.22% [3] Related Reports - High base pressure in the western market, structural upgrades progressing smoothly—Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) 2024 Q1 earnings review (2024-05-09) [5] - Smooth structural upgrades in China, Korean tariff audit fees drag down after-tax profit—Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) 2023 annual report review (2024-03-01) [5]

2024 年 8 月 2 日 公司研究 东部地区增长势头强劲，部分抵消中国市场压力 ——百威亚太（1876.HK）2024 半年度业绩点评 政治 增持（維持） 当前价：9.39 港元 (E) 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航学 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师： 或博博 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com tion and 总股本(亿股)132.43 总市值(亿港元)：1243.55 一年最低/最高(港元)：8.68/18.34 近 3 月换手率：7.22% . . . 00% LONG COMPON LONG COMPON List of the 1M3M1Y9. 相对-3.49-34.302.15 -47.83绝对-0.17-8.00 类日来源：Wind ##### 高基致下西部市场承压，结构升级仍顺利一 一百威亚太（1876.HK）2024 年一季报点 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.2, representing a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of HKD 9.4 [2] Core Views - Despite a significant decline in 2Q24 performance in China due to unfavorable factors, the long-term premiumization trend in the Chinese market remains intact, with expected improvement in volume and price performance in 2H24 due to a low base [1] - Korea's 2Q24 organic revenue and normalized EBITDA showed strong growth, expected to continue in 3Q24 [1] - Budweiser APAC's 1H24 organic cost per ton decreased by 0.6% YoY, leading to a 127bps expansion in organic gross margin, with this trend expected to continue in 2H24 due to a 12-month price lock-in mechanism [1] - The company's flexible cost control measures are expected to keep the full-year expense ratio stable YoY, with normalized EBITDA likely to return to positive growth in 2H24 [1] China Market Analysis - 2Q24 organic revenue in China declined by 15.2% YoY, with volume and organic price per ton down by 10.3% and 5.4% respectively [1] - China's normalized EBITDA fell by 17.2% YoY, slightly higher than the revenue decline, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and cost control flexibility [1] - In 3Q24, volume decline in China is expected to narrow significantly due to improved weather during the peak season and a low base, with price per ton likely to return to positive growth as premium and above products recover [1] - Long-term growth potential lies in expanding distribution channels for premium and above products through the BEES platform and increasing market share in non-on-premise channels [1] Korea Market Analysis - Korea's 2Q24 volume grew by mid-single digits, with price per ton expanding by mid-teens, driving high-teens revenue growth [1] - APAC East's normalized EBITDA surged by 69.6% YoY, with normalized EBITDA margin expanding by 899bps [1] - The strong performance is attributed to a low base from the April 2023 tax hike, two price increases in 2023, improved channel and brand structure, cost control, and lower raw material prices [1] - Market share increased in both on-premise and non-on-premise channels in 2Q24, with continued strong growth expected in 3Q24 if no further tax hikes occur [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - 1H24 revenue declined by 7% YoY to USD 3,399 million, with volume down 6% and price per ton down 2% [8] - Gross margin improved to 51.5% in 1H24 from 50.9% in 1H23, driven by cost control measures [8] - Normalized EBITDA for 1H24 was USD 1,100 million, down 6% YoY, with a margin of 32.4% [8] - Full-year 2024 revenue is forecasted at USD 6,670 million, down 2.7% YoY, with normalized EBITDA expected to grow by 1% to USD 2,049 million [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 2.6% to USD 874 million in 2024, with a net margin of 13.1% [9] Valuation - The SOTP valuation based on 2024E EBITDA suggests a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x, implying a target price of HKD 11.2 [11] - APAC East and APAC West are valued at EV/EBITDA multiples of 4.0x and 9.0x respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.5 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Budweiser APAC faced significant sales pressure in China during Q2 2024 due to adverse weather, weak consumer demand, and high base effects from the previous year. However, strong performance in South Korea and India helped mitigate some of these challenges [2][3]. - The company achieved total revenue of USD 3.4 billion in H1 2024, with a normalized EBITDA of USD 1.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.2% and 4.3% respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slight improvement in performance in H2 2024 due to lower base effects and ongoing strong growth in South Korea and India, despite continued challenges in the Chinese market [2][3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, Budweiser APAC reported total revenue of USD 3.4 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 7.3% [1]. - The normalized EBITDA for the same period was USD 1.1 billion, down 6.2% year-on-year [1]. - The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 550 million, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2024, total revenue was USD 1.756 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 10.6% [1][2]. - The normalized EBITDA for Q2 was USD 530 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.0% [1][2]. - The normalized net profit for Q2 was USD 250 million, down 8.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Regional Performance - In the Asia Pacific West region, Q2 sales in China faced significant pressure, with a year-on-year decline in both volume and price [2]. - Conversely, the Asia Pacific East region showed strong sales growth, with a 6.0% increase in volume and a 14.4% increase in price, leading to a substantial recovery in profitability [2]. - The report notes that the strong performance in India and South Korea contributed significantly to overall revenue, with the P&SP combination in India achieving double-digit growth [2]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the operational pressure in China may ease in H2 2024 due to lower base effects and strategic initiatives to adapt to the new market conditions [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are USD 920 million, USD 990 million, and USD 1.05 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1][2].

百威亚太1H24业绩会纪要 日期：2024年8月1日 Bloomberg generated summary： Guidance The company expressed confidence in its strategy and expects to deliver stronger resultsin the medium and long term. The company mentioned that it expects the level of commercial investment as a percent ofnet revenue to be relatively stable versus last year and prior years, at a national level. Margin Story Normalized EBITDA margin increased by 109 basis points, driven by gross marginexpansion. Gross profit margin expansion contributed to a 10 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任何損失承擔任何責任。 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月的 未經審核中期業績 及 2024年第二季度財務資料 百威亞太控股有限公司（「百威亞太」或「本公司」，連同其附屬公司為「本集團」）的董事 會（「董事會」）宣佈本公告隨附本集團截至2024年6月30日止六個月的未經審核業績。 董事會謹此提醒股東及潛在投資者，截至2024年6月30日止六個月的未經審核業績乃根 據本集團內部紀錄及管理賬目所編製，已經獨立核數師審閱但未經審核。 股東及潛在投資者買賣本公司證券時不應過份依賴未經審核業績並須謹慎行事。 承董事會命 百威亞太控股有限公司 聯席公司秘書 華百恩 香港，2024年8月1日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括聯席主席兼執行董事楊克先生、聯席主席兼非執行董事鄧明 瀟先生（Joh ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$15.20, down from HK$16.52, reflecting an 8% decrease [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Budweiser APAC's revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year, primarily due to weakness in the Chinese beer market, although this is partially offset by a recovery in the South Korean market [4][5]. - The normalized EBITDA for Q2 2024 is projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by cost efficiencies and effective marketing expense management [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a recovery in consumer sentiment in China, as the company's performance is significantly impacted by the sluggish beer market in the region [4][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at US$6,864 million, with a slight decrease of 0.6% from previous estimates [9]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at US$995 million, reflecting a minor reduction of 0.3% [9]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including expected EPS of US$0.07 for 2024E, unchanged from previous estimates [6][9]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$9.20, indicating a potential upside of 65% to the target price [2]. - The market capitalization of Budweiser APAC is reported at US$15,606 million, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$20 million [2][3]. Regional Insights - The report notes that Budweiser APAC's sales in the Chinese market are expected to decline, while the South Korean market is anticipated to show recovery, benefiting from previous price increases and a low base effect [5][4]. - The average selling price in the South Korean market is expected to rise due to effective pricing strategies implemented in Q4 2023 [5]. Valuation - The report values Budweiser APAC at a P/E ratio of 26.0x for 2024, which is lower than the previous estimate of 28.2x, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to historical averages [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Budweiser APAC, highlighting its effective product upgrade strategy and leading profitability and dividend performance in the beer industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Budweiser APAC is at the forefront of premiumization in the Chinese beer market, which is crucial for revenue and profit growth [1][5]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a revenue of $6.86 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and an adjusted net profit of $920 million, up 6.8% [1][7]. - Budweiser APAC's strategy focuses on high-end beer products, which has resulted in a higher average selling price and a significant market share in China [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Budweiser APAC, a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev, was established in 2019 and operates in key beer markets across the Asia-Pacific region, including China, Korea, India, and Vietnam [1][2]. Market Position - The company holds a 19.5% market share in China, making it a significant player in a highly concentrated market where the top five companies control 92% of the market [4][5]. - Budweiser APAC's revenue from the Chinese market grew by 12.8% in 2023, with a notable increase in profitability [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 50.4% in 2023, which is the highest among its peers, and maintained a strong adjusted net profit margin of 13% [9][10]. - In Q1 2024, the gross margin improved to 51%, reflecting effective cost management and pricing strategies [9]. Product Strategy - Budweiser APAC has successfully implemented a high-end product strategy, achieving a beer price of 5,235 RMB per ton, significantly higher than competitors [5][9]. - The company has introduced innovative products, contributing to a 10% increase in sales volume for new products in 2023 [7]. Shareholder Returns - The average dividend payout ratio for Budweiser APAC is 41.5%, with a remarkable 82.2% payout ratio in 2023, surpassing its competitors [20][22]. - The company has not engaged in stock buybacks since its listing, focusing instead on returning value to shareholders through dividends [22]. Valuation - Budweiser APAC's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at a historical low of approximately 1.7, influenced by the overall market conditions in the Hong Kong beer sector [23].