周大福（1929.HK）FY2024年报点评 24 财年归母净利同比+21%，期待利润率持续提升 2024年06月15日 ➢ 事件概述。周大福发布FY2024财年业绩公告及24年4月1日至5月31 推荐 维持评级 日主要经营数据。FY2024，集团实现营业额1087.13亿港元，同比+14.82%， 实现归母净利润64.99亿港元，同比+20.71%，主要经营溢利率同比+1.2 pct至 当前价格： 8.62港元 11.2%。2024财年全年派发股息0.55港元/股，全年派息率达84.6%。 ➢ 黄金产品与加盟渠道收入增速较快，分区域同店增速稳健提升。1）分地区 看：FY24，受节日需求驱动及新开门店店效稳步提升推动，中国内地实现营收 [T able_Author] 896.98 亿港元，同比+9.9%，占总营收比例为 82.5%；受益于入境旅游的持续 复苏，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场实现营收190.15亿港元，同比+45.6%， 占总营收比例为17.5%。2）分产品看（不含珠宝贸易及来自加盟商的服务收入）： FY24，珠宝镶嵌、铂金及K金首饰收入同比-13.3%，黄金首饰及产品收入同比 +22.5%，收入 ...

华福证券 钟表珠宝 2024年06月14日 公 司 周大福（ ） 01929.HK 买入（维持评级） 研 究 24FY 稳健复苏，4-5 月受金价扰动观望情绪重 当前价格： 9.46港元 基本数据 投资要点： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9,987.74/9,987.74 流通市值(百万港元) 94,483.99  24FY营收同增14.8%，主要经营溢利同增28.9% 每股净资产(港元) 2.57 资产负债率(%) 69.89 24FY公司实现营收1087.13亿港元/+14.8%，主要经营溢利121.63 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 15.48/9.27 亿港元/+28.9%，实现毛利率22.80%/-0.8pct（经调整，下同），主要系 一年内股价相对走势 黄金产品持续高景气度，收入增长的同时产品结构调整，毛利率略有 下降。公司拟每股派发0.3港元，全年派息率84.6%。 公  中国内地门店拐点明确，新店运营提质增效 司 财 24FY 中国内地实现营收 896.98 亿港元/+9.9%，毛利率 报 22.5%/-0.8pct，主要系批发和黄金业务占比提升，销售费用率下降1.8pct 点 至11.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) [5] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2024 performance was stable with revenue and net profit growing by 14 8% and 20 7% respectively [1] - The company's adjusted gross margin decreased by 0 9 percentage points to 22 8% due to changes in product mix and increased wholesale channel contribution [1] - Mainland China revenue grew by 9 9% with wholesale channel revenue increasing by 15 1% [1] - Hong Kong Macau and other regions saw a significant revenue increase of 45 6% driven by improved consumption from mainland tourists [2] - The company expects single digit revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth for FY2025 [2] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue reached HKD 108 713 billion with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 6 499 billion [1] - Mainland China revenue accounted for HKD 896 98 billion with retail and wholesale channels growing by 3 6% and 15 1% respectively [1] - Hong Kong Macau and other regions contributed HKD 190 15 billion to revenue [2] - The company's operating profit margin improved by 1 2 percentage points to 11 2% [1] Store Operations - As of FY2024 the company operated 7 403 Chow Tai Fook jewelry retail points in Mainland China with a net increase of 143 stores [1] - Directly operated stores accounted for 23 3% while franchised stores made up 76 7% of the total [1] - Store distribution by city tier was 12 2% in Tier 1 cities 42 3% in Tier 2 cities 21 9% in Tier 3 cities and 23 7% in Tier 4 and other cities [1] Product Performance - Gold product revenue in Mainland China increased by 23 3% while镶嵌 product revenue decreased by 5 9% [2] - Priced gold products accounted for 84 6% of gold product revenue with a slight decrease of 0 4 percentage points year over year [2] - Diamond镶嵌 products accounted for 57 7% of镶嵌 product revenue a decrease of 2 8 percentage points year over year [2] Future Outlook - The company expects FY2025 revenue to grow in the single digits with net profit growth exceeding 10% [2] - Long term growth is expected to be driven by improved single store efficiency and product optimization [2] - FY2025 FY2027 net profit is forecasted to be HKD 7 323 billion HKD 8 224 billion and HKD 9 273 billion respectively [2] Valuation - The company's FY2025 PE ratio is estimated at 13x [2] - FY2025 FY2027 EPS is projected to be HKD 0 73 HKD 0 82 and HKD 0 93 respectively [2][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) [1][4][8] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook achieved steady growth in FY2024 with revenue of HKD 108 713 billion (+14 82% YoY) and net profit of HKD 6 499 billion (+20 71% YoY) driven by recovery in gold jewelry demand [1][5] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0 3 per share with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 84 6% [1][5] - Retail sales value for April-May 2024 declined by 20 2% YoY mainly due to high gold price volatility impacting consumer demand [1][5] Business Performance Product Categories - Gold jewelry and products revenue increased by 22 5% YoY accounting for 82% of total revenue (+5 1pct YoY) [1][6] - Jewelry inlaid platinum and K-gold jewelry revenue decreased by 13 3% YoY with revenue share dropping to 13 4% (-4 4pct YoY) [1][6] Regional Performance - Hong Kong Macau and other markets revenue grew by 45 6% YoY [1][6] - Mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) revenue increased by 9 9% YoY accounting for 82 5% of total revenue with same-store sales growth of 1 8% [1][6] - Franchise stores achieved same-store sales growth of 7 4% benefiting from improved store efficiency [1][6] Store Expansion - The company added 136 net new stores in FY2024 reaching a total of 7 782 stores maintaining industry leadership [1][6] Product Innovation - The Heritage series achieved retail value growth of approximately 20% in FY2024 [1][6] - The "Four Beauties of Life" and "Lily of the Valley" series performed steadily [1][6] Financial Performance Profitability - Gross margin decreased by 1 86pct to 20 5% mainly due to higher proportion of lower-margin gold products [1][7] - Adjusted gross margin (excluding unrealized gains/losses from gold borrowing) decreased by 0 9pct to 22 8% [1][7] Cost Control - Selling expenses ratio decreased by 1 78pct to 8 75% [1][7] - Administrative expenses ratio decreased by 0 45pct to 3 48% [1][7] Operational Efficiency - Inventory turnover days improved from 294 days to 274 days [1][8] - Operating cash flow increased by 37 45% YoY to HKD 13 836 billion [1][8] Industry Outlook - The gold jewelry industry is expected to maintain growth momentum supported by gold price and value-preservation demand [1][8] - Brand competitiveness is becoming increasingly important in the industry [1][8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to HKD 120 048 billion in FY2025 (+10 43% YoY) and HKD 140 149 billion in FY2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to reach HKD 7 249 billion in FY2025 (+11 53% YoY) and HKD 8 976 billion in FY2027 [2][9] - EPS is expected to increase from HKD 0 65 in FY2024 to HKD 0 90 in FY2027 [2][9] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 25% from FY2025 to FY2027 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In FY2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.7%, with total revenue reaching HKD 108.7 billion, a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [3] - The gross profit margin declined due to product mix changes, but operational efficiency improved significantly [3] - Same-store sales in mainland China grew by 1.8%, primarily driven by gold products [3] - The company continues to open new stores with a focus on high-quality expansion, particularly in second-tier cities [3] - Retail sales were impacted by high gold prices, leading to a decline in sales growth in April and May 2024 [4] - Profit forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 have been adjusted downwards due to the pressure on terminal consumption from fluctuating gold prices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 total revenue was HKD 108,713 million, up 14.82% year-on-year, with net profit of HKD 6,499 million, up 20.71% [2][3] - The adjusted gross profit margin was 22.8%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to unrealized losses from gold loans [3] Sales Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 1.8%, with gold product sales growing by 6.4% [3] - Retail sales in April and May 2024 saw a significant decline, with overall retail sales down 20.2% year-on-year [4] Store Expansion - The company opened 143 new stores in mainland China, with a focus on franchise channels [3] Profit Forecasts - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 are HKD 7,308 million and HKD 8,983 million, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.82% year-on-year for FY2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 20.71% [2] - The company experienced a decline in same-store sales, with a 20.2% drop in retail value during the period from April 1 to May 31, 2024 [2][9] - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 20.50% for FY2024 [2] - The company opened 136 new stores, bringing the total to 7,782 stores as of March 31, 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue reached HKD 108.71 billion, a 14.82% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 6.50 billion, translating to an EPS of HKD 0.65, up 20.71% [2][5] - For the second half of FY2024, revenue was HKD 59.19 billion, a 22.92% increase, but net profit decreased by 4.91% to HKD 1.95 billion [2] Operational Metrics - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 was 20.50%, down 2.08 percentage points, with a second-half gross margin of 16.80%, down 4.29 percentage points [2] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 1.57 percentage points to 12.88% for FY2024 [2] Store Expansion - The company added 136 new stores in FY2024, with a total of 7,782 stores as of March 31, 2024 [3] - The number of stores in mainland China reached 7,403, an increase of 143 stores [3] Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong competitive position in terms of channel strength and brand power within the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) despite a downward revision in profit forecasts due to declining gross margins and slower store expansion [4] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2024 revenue grew 14 82% YoY to HKD 108 713 billion while net profit attributable to shareholders increased 20 71% to HKD 6 499 billion [2] - The company's gross margin declined by 2 08 percentage points to 20 50% in FY2024 with a more significant drop of 4 29 percentage points in 2HFY2024 [2] - Retail value decreased by 20 2% YoY for the period from April 1 to May 31 2024 with mainland China down 18 8% and Hong Kong Macau other markets down 29% [2] Financial Performance - FY2024 operating expenses ratio decreased by 1 57 percentage points to 12 88% with sales management financial expense ratios at 8 75% 3 48% 0 65% respectively [2] - The company added 136 net new stores in FY2024 bringing the total to 7 782 stores with mainland China accounting for 7 403 stores [3] - Profit forecasts for FY2025 FY2026 were revised down by 7% 8% to HKD 7 439 billion HKD 8 182 billion respectively with a new FY2027 forecast of HKD 8 797 billion [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decline from 15 in FY2024 to 11 in FY2027 while PB ratio is expected to decrease from 3 7 to 3 2 over the same period [5] - ROE (attributable to parent company diluted) is forecasted to increase from 25 27% in FY2024 to 29 43% in FY2027 [5] Market Data - Chow Tai Fook's total market capitalization stands at HKD 94 484 billion with a 52 week price range of HKD 9 27 to HKD 12 98 [6] - The stock has shown negative performance relative to the Hang Seng Index with -32 24% over 3 months and -28 08% over 1 year [7]

Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group achieved record high revenue of HK$108,713 million in FY2024, representing a 14.8% increase, or 18.5% on a constant exchange rate basis[10]. - Core operating profit increased by 28.9% to HK$12,163 million, with the core operating profit margin improving by 120 basis points to 11.2%[10]. - Revenue for the year ended March 31, 2024, reached HK$108,713 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7%[17]. - Core operating profit for the same period was HK$12,163 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9%[17]. - Earnings per share increased to HK$0.65, up from HK$0.54 in the previous year, marking a growth of 20.4%[17]. - Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.7% to HK$6,499 million, with earnings per share at HK$0.65[28]. - The gross profit margin for the year was 20.5%, down from 22.4% in the previous year[17]. - The adjusted gross profit margin moderated by 90 basis points to 22.8% due to changes in product and wholesale mix[84]. - The net gearing ratio as of March 31, 2024, was 78.2%, significantly higher than 27.6% in the previous year[18]. - The Group's total equity as of March 31, 2024, was HK$33,360 million, a decrease of HK$6,614 million from HK$26,746 million in 2023[178]. Market Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets climbed 45.6% year-on-year, driven by the recovery in inbound tourism[10]. - Retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 36.7% during FY2024, driven by increased tourist arrivals and the Lunar New Year holiday[71]. - The Mainland jewellery market is expected to remain resilient, driven by a GDP growth target of around 5% and increasing demand from young consumers[33]. - Retail sales volume in Mainland China for the year ended 31 March 2023 was 21,988,000 units, a slight decrease from 22,118,000 units in 2022[20]. - The retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong and Macau surged by 32.0% and 53.2% respectively, driven by the recovery of inbound tourism[163]. - The Mainland continued to be the main profit contributor, accounting for over 85% of the group's core operating profit in FY2024[100]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a brand transformation to enhance brand desirability and customer experience, including the launch of new consumer-facing logos and the CTF Rouge Collection[10]. - Strategic priorities include brand transformation, product optimization, accelerated digitalization, operational efficiency, and talent cultivation[27]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to enhance customer experience across omni-channel touchpoints to adapt to evolving consumer preferences[33]. - The company is implementing a strategic refurbishment of all stores over the next five years in preparation for its 100th anniversary in 2029[47]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through selective store openings and closures in its retail network[65]. Operational Efficiency - The number of retail points increased by 143 to a total of 7,403, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 1.8%[14]. - Inventory turnover period improved to 274 days, compared to 294 days in the previous year[18]. - The company aims to leverage AI and a comprehensive data lake to enhance operational efficiency and data-driven decision-making[49]. - The average selling price (ASP) of e-commerce products increased to approximately HK$2,080 in FY2024, up from HK$1,870 in FY2023, reflecting a growth of around 11.2%[129]. - The overall SSS volume growth was 32.0%, with gem-set, platinum, and k-gold jewellery experiencing a decline of 4.8%[142]. Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple awards in 2023, including Best CEO and Best CFO, reflecting strong governance and investor relations performance[21]. Future Outlook - The company expects a same-store sales growth of 1.8% for the year ending 31 March 2024 in Mainland China[20]. - The Group remains cautiously optimistic for FY2025, focusing on enhancing store productivity and disciplined cost management[78]. - The company anticipates growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, driven by a rising middle class and economic recovery in tourism[34].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - Chow Tai Fook is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry, leveraging innovation to achieve breakthroughs. The company has a strong retail network with 7,885 retail points as of the end of 2023, and it reported a retail value of HKD 94.684 billion and a net profit of HKD 5.384 billion for FY2023 [1][5]. - The company has solidified its market leadership through three dimensions: product innovation, channel expansion, and brand strength. Its market share in mainland China has increased from 6.1% in 2014 to 10.9% in 2023 [1][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1929, Chow Tai Fook has deep roots in the jewelry industry, focusing on gold jewelry and related products. The company employs a differentiated brand strategy, with its flagship brand complemented by sub-brands like HEARTS ON FIRE and MONOLOGUE. The retail network includes both self-operated and franchised stores [1][5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has led industry transformation by focusing on product innovation, channel development, and brand enhancement. It has successfully targeted younger consumers and maintained high product standards, which has strengthened its competitive edge [1][25]. - The retail network has expanded significantly, with a focus on both first-tier and lower-tier cities. The company has exceeded its target of 7,000 stores by 2025, achieving 7,269 stores by March 31, 2023 [1][6]. Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for FY2023 was HKD 94.684 billion, with a net profit of HKD 5.384 billion. The company expects revenues to grow to HKD 109.113 billion, HKD 121.860 billion, and HKD 134.600 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 7.569 billion, HKD 8.600 billion, and HKD 9.625 billion [2][10]. - The company has maintained a stable profit margin, with an adjusted gross margin of 23.7% for FY2023, reflecting effective cost control [17][18]. Future Outlook - The jewelry industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with increasing market concentration and favorable conditions for leading brands. Chow Tai Fook's low valuation and high dividend yield make it an attractive investment opportunity [1][25]. - The company plans to enhance store profitability through a store renovation initiative and aims to optimize its product mix to increase the proportion of high-value products [1][25].

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