❑ 二、超预期逻辑 1）周大福在品牌影响力、产品设计迭代等环节表现出极强优势，公司从 24 年开 始全力推进品牌转型，同店收入有望超预期增长。 市场担忧：周大福 24 年同店大幅下滑，在金价持续新高、行业竞争加剧背景下 公司的终端动销表现或将持续承压。 我们认为：周大福基于其极强品牌力、产品力、渠道力，24 年起推动品牌形象 升级、产品结构升级、门店效益提升，卓有成效，同店收入有望恢复快速增长。 周大福是黄金珠宝行业龙头品牌，发展历史悠久、品牌定位高端、渠道覆盖广 泛，拥有极强的品牌认知和影响力。公司 18 年起陆续推出"新城镇战略"和省 代政策，发力下沉市场和渠道扩张，23年后公司对渠道扩张策略进行调整，聚焦 品牌形象升级和门店效益提升。 24 年以来，周大福全力推进品牌转型：1）品牌形象升级：周大福全新概念店于 24 年 9 月落地香港中环，并陆续落地西安和深圳，新概念店采用展览式布局展示 各个珠宝系列，店效高于店铺平均水平，公司未来五年将陆续更新店铺形象； 2）产品结构升级：24年 4月、8月先后推出"传福"、"故宫"系列，蕴含品牌独 特印记和深厚文化寓意，主要以一口价模式销售，带动 25 财年上半年中 ...

4月10日，今日周大福珠宝集团对外公布了品牌转型一周年成效。在品牌转型亮点方面，为庆祝品牌成 立95周年，集团于2024年4月推出了周大福传福系列，截至2025财政年度第三季度，该系列的零售值已 突破24亿港元。同时，周大福珠宝天宣布推出全新的周大福传喜系列（CTF Joie Collection）。据悉， 此系列秉承了周大福传福系列的故事性寓意，两者均深受中国文化中具有深远意义的文字所启发。 在策略性品牌联乘合作方面，自2024年8月推出以来，周大福故宫系列截至2025财政年度第三季止的零 售值已录得16亿港元。同时，集团透过与《黑神话：悟空》、《鬼灭之刃》和《吉伊卡哇Chiikawa》等 人气IP联乘合作，进一步丰富其产品组合。其中，《黑神话：悟空》系列在吸引男性顾客方面表现尤为 出色，推动了自用而非送礼的购买需求，成功打入此前尚未开发的市场领域。 周大福珠宝集团副主席郑志雯表示："我们的品牌转型之旅印证了集团对创新、质量和以客为先的坚定 承诺。透过推出新形象时尚店、加强产品组合，以及与全球知名伙伴的策略性联乘合作，我们重新定义 了顾客体验。这些举措不仅巩固我们作为值得信赖的终身伙伴的地位，同时也为可持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by increased volatility and declining market risk appetite, investors are adopting a "barbell" strategy, balancing high-risk Chinese tech stocks with high-dividend stocks for stable returns. The recent trade war has led to significant fluctuations in global markets, making low-risk bonds essential for defensive positioning. Chow Tai Fook Creation (0659.HK) stands out as an ideal choice for investors seeking low-risk returns due to its mature business model, stable cash flow, and diversified operations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Resilience - The company reported a robust mid-year performance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with a 15% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders, reaching HKD 1.158 billion, demonstrating strong cash flow and the profitability of its diversified business portfolio [2]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation maintains a sustainable and gradual dividend policy, declaring an interim ordinary dividend of HKD 0.3 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.3 per share, reflecting its commitment to stakeholder value creation and a solid financial foundation with 22 consecutive years of dividend payments [2]. Group 2: Debt Structure and Liquidity - As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately HKD 18.6 billion in cash and bank deposits, with an additional HKD 11.3 billion in committed bank credit lines, providing a total available liquidity of about HKD 29.9 billion, with cash and equivalents accounting for over 60% of available assets [3]. - The company has a healthy debt maturity profile, with only about HKD 2.3 billion in short-term debt due within the next year, representing a small fraction of its total available liquidity [3]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation has strategically optimized its debt structure by replacing higher-cost foreign debt with lower-cost RMB-denominated debt, significantly reducing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on equity [3]. Group 3: Credit Ratings and Risk Profile - Chow Tai Fook Creation has received an "AAA" long-term credit rating from United Ratings, with a stable outlook, and an "A+" rating from Japan Credit Rating Agency for both foreign currency and local currency long-term issuances, indicating strong recognition of its business and financial health in both domestic and international capital markets [5]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning and Business Diversification - The company completed a restructuring at the end of 2023, becoming directly controlled by Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, which enhances its strategic alignment with the parent company's future development plans and allows for better resource utilization and cross-selling opportunities [6][7]. - Chow Tai Fook Creation operates in various sectors, including toll roads, insurance, logistics, and construction, which helps mitigate industry risks and reduces reliance on any single business line. The insurance segment, particularly Chow Tai Fook Life, has shown exceptional growth, with a 49% year-on-year increase in operating profit, driven by rising demand for investment and medical protection [8]. - The company plans to acquire a 43.93% stake in uSmart Inlet Group Ltd, a leading fintech firm, to enhance its financial services segment and expand its client base in Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and the U.S., creating a synergistic "insurance + asset management" model [9][10].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London spot gold rising to $3070 per ounce and COMEX gold futures touching $3109 per ounce on March 28 [1] - In response to rising gold prices, Chow Tai Fook has adjusted its pricing for gold jewelry, with 24K gold jewelry priced at 932 RMB per gram and investment gold products at 818 RMB per gram [2] - The sales of "fixed-price" gold jewelry have increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 118%, while overall sales revenue for Chow Tai Fook has decreased by 20% [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming price increase for "fixed-price" gold jewelry is expected to be between 10% and 20%, with price hikes ranging from hundreds to thousands of RMB [2][4] - The management of Chow Tai Fook recognizes the need for product innovation, channel optimization, and precise marketing to address the challenges posed by fluctuating gold prices and weak demand [4] - Other gold retail companies, such as Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang, are also experiencing performance pressures and have adopted price increases as a common strategy to boost revenue [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and jewelry industry is gaining significant attention as international gold prices reach historical highs, with companies like Chow Tai Fook Jewelry innovating for high-quality development amidst changing market conditions [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The gold and jewelry industry is increasingly leveraging technology to enhance production and logistics efficiency, with Chow Tai Fook's manufacturing center showcasing automation and digitalization [2][4] - Chow Tai Fook's automated logistics center has significantly improved efficiency, capable of supplying approximately 3,000 stores daily compared to just 1,000 before its implementation [3] - Advanced diamond cutting and polishing equipment, including over 1,500 automatic polishing machines, positions Chow Tai Fook among industry leaders in technology adoption [3] Group 2: Traditional Craftsmanship - Chow Tai Fook emphasizes the importance of traditional gold craftsmanship, integrating Chinese culture into its products, with a dedicated studio housing over 400 artisans [5][6] - Experienced artisans play a crucial role in both production and mentoring new talent, ensuring the continuity of traditional skills within the industry [6] Group 3: Brand Transformation and Market Strategy - Chow Tai Fook's brand transformation focuses on optimizing product offerings and enhancing customer experiences across different market segments [7] - The company has opened several new concept stores, which have exceeded expectations in terms of customer traffic and sales [7] - The product line is tailored to meet the emotional and cultural needs of various consumer demographics, with ongoing collaborations to engage younger customers [7][8] Group 4: Digitalization and Talent Development - Digitalization is a key focus for Chow Tai Fook, with data collection across all operational stages to enhance decision-making and execution capabilities [8] - The company collaborates with educational institutions to train talent, combining theoretical knowledge with practical experience in jewelry craftsmanship [8]

Group 1 - Chow Tai Fook has announced that it will adjust the prices of its gold jewelry products due to fluctuations in gold prices, with the new price tags expected to be updated by the end of March [1] - The price of gold has been on the rise, reaching a historical high of $3057.51 per ounce on March 20, followed by a slight correction on March 21, where it dropped to a low of $2999.268 per ounce [1] - As of March 24, the retail price for Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry is set at 918 RMB per gram, while competitors like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao are priced at 915 RMB and 914 RMB per gram respectively [1][2] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to mixed reactions among consumers, with some expressing frustration over recent purchases as prices fell, while others have seen significant profits from long-term investments in gold [2] - The market is responding to price volatility by introducing smaller weight gold products to attract consumers, with online offerings priced between 8000 to 9000 RMB for earrings and necklaces, and some items as low as 559 RMB for a 0.5-gram gold bracelet [2] - Investment analysts suggest that consumers should avoid buying gold at high prices to mitigate risks, and recommend strategies like dollar-cost averaging to manage price fluctuations effectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [2][4] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in RSV of 14.2% in FY2025Q3, but the sales decline has narrowed compared to Q2. The decline in mainland RSV was 13%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a decline of 20.4% [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-margin, well-designed gold products, which rose from 6.9% to 18.7% [1] - The company is undergoing a net store closure strategy, with 261 stores closed in mainland China by the end of December 2024, emphasizing the importance of single-store operations [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 16.3% in FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of approximately 5% [2] - The company’s revenue for FY2025 is estimated at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 6.15 billion HKD [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.62 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 times [3][4] Sales Performance - In FY2025Q3, the mainland's same-store sales declined by 16.1% for direct stores and 12.3% for franchise stores, indicating a better performance for franchises due to faster operational efficiency improvements [1] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales for jewelry embedded products increased by 33.7%, while gold products saw a decline of 36.2% [1] Store Operations - As of December 2024, Chow Tai Fook operated a total of 6,836 stores globally, with 6,685 in mainland China, 86 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 65 in other markets [1] - The company continues to focus on rectifying underperforming stores in response to the fluctuating consumer environment [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company reported a same-store sales decline of 14.2% year-on-year for FY25Q3, with specific declines of 13.0% in mainland China and 20.4% in Hong Kong and Macau [3][4] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to boost sales, with the company focusing on product structure adjustments and channel optimization, which may lead to improved profitability [5] - The company maintains its annual guidance despite the challenges faced in the retail environment [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For FY2024, total revenue is projected at 108,713 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.8%. For FY2025, revenue is expected to decline to 88,968 million HKD, a decrease of 18.2% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025 is estimated at 5,412 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.7% [7][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 29.7% in FY2025, compared to 20.5% in FY2024 [7][10] Market Analysis - In mainland China, the same-store sales decline has narrowed, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of fixed-price gold products, which has positively impacted profitability [4][5] - In Hong Kong and Macau, the sales of jewelry products have shown better performance, with a 33.7% increase in same-store sales for jewelry embedded products, while gold product sales declined by 36.2% [5][8] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a share buyback plan of 2 billion HKD, with 275 million HKD already repurchased as of January 27, 2025 [5] - The potential dividend yield for FY2025 is projected at 5.8% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a cautious outlook based on the performance metrics discussed [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY2025Q3 decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau markets showing declines of 13.0% and 20.4% respectively [1]. - The same-store sales decline in mainland China narrowed sequentially, with a year-on-year drop of 16.1% and a same-store sales volume decrease of 27.4% [2]. - The company closed 261 stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 6,685 stores as of December 31, 2024 [2]. - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, same-store sales fell by 21.3%, with Hong Kong down 16.9% and Macau down 35.3% [3]. - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce contributed 6.9% to retail value in mainland China, with a volume contribution of 16.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY2025 to FY2027 are estimated at HKD 89.5 billion, HKD 91.5 billion, and HKD 93.8 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18% in FY2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 5.948 billion in FY2025, with a slight recovery to HKD 6.120 billion in FY2026 and HKD 6.331 billion in FY2027 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.60, HKD 0.61, and HKD 0.63 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The high gold prices have continued to impact consumer sentiment, but the stabilization of gold prices and product optimization measures have helped to reduce the same-store sales decline [2]. - The company opened two new concept stores in mainland China during FY2025Q3, achieving above-average sales performance [2]. - The contribution of franchise stores to retail value in mainland China increased slightly to 69.7% in FY2025Q3 [2]. Regional Performance - In mainland China, the same-store sales for gold and embedded products fell by 15.3% and 20.3% respectively [2]. - The Hong Kong and Macau markets are experiencing shifts in consumer behavior, with a notable decline in gold jewelry sales [3]. - The company has expanded its international presence by opening five new retail stores in Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, and Los Angeles [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a 14.2% year-on-year decline in retail value for FY25Q3, with a 13.0% decline in mainland China and a 20.4% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets, influenced by macroeconomic factors and high gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales showed a narrowing decline due to stabilized gold prices and successful product optimization measures, with mainland China same-store sales down 16.1% and Hong Kong and Macau down 21.3% [1]. - The company is making positive progress in brand transformation, optimizing product and pricing strategies, and improving operational efficiency [3]. Retail Performance - In FY25Q3, the retail value of gold jewelry and products in mainland China decreased by 13.0%, while same-store sales fell by 15.3%. In Hong Kong and Macau, retail value dropped by 33.5%, with same-store sales down 36.2% [2]. - The average selling price of gold products remained resilient, increasing to 6300 HKD in mainland China and 8800 HKD in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - For the embedded category, retail value in mainland China decreased by 11.9%, while the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw a 34.4% increase in retail value, benefiting from effective promotional activities [2]. Store Expansion - As of December 31, 2024, the company had 6836 retail points, with a net closure of 255 stores during the quarter [3]. - In mainland China, there were 6685 retail points, with a net closure of 261 stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets had 151 retail points, with a net opening of 6 stores [3]. - The total number of retail points for the group was 7065, reflecting a net decrease of 259 stores [3]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 5.63 billion HKD, 6.91 billion HKD, and 7.68 billion HKD for FY25-27, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [3].