Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.97 HKD per share, based on a 13X PE for 2024 [3][58]. Core Views - The dairy industry is at a cyclical low, with supply-side adjustments underway. The overall demand for dairy products remains weak due to macroeconomic factors, leading to intensified price competition and promotional activities [2][11]. - The company has a solid operational foundation, with a leadership transition expected to usher in a new phase of development. The new management is experienced and familiar with the industry, which is anticipated to help navigate the current downturn [2][28]. - The company has demonstrated strong free cash flow generation capabilities, reaching a record high of 6.82 billion CNY in 2023, with an increased dividend payout ratio of 40% [2][50][56]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a slight decline in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years, with expected revenues of 94.1 billion CNY in 2024, 98.57 billion CNY in 2025, and 102.84 billion CNY in 2026 [2][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a downturn, with production volumes declining and promotional activities increasing to manage inventory [2][11]. - The average price of raw milk has dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% as of August 2024 [19]. 2. Company Operations - The company has maintained its market leadership in high-end white milk and low-temperature yogurt, with a steady increase in revenue contribution from cheese products [2][32]. - The leadership transition is expected to enhance operational strategies and market positioning [2][28]. 3. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record free cash flow of 6.82 billion CNY in 2023, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [2][50]. - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 40%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][56]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 94.1 billion CNY, 98.57 billion CNY, and 102.84 billion CNY, respectively, with a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 followed by recovery [2][58].

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 6.5% to RMB 98,624 million in 2023[5] - Operating profit grew by 13.8% to RMB 6,170.6 million, with an operating profit margin of 6.3%[6] - Mengniu achieved steady growth in revenue and a continuous increase in operating profit margin in 2023[23] - Revenue for 2023 increased by 6.5% year-on-year to RMB98,624.0 million (2022: RMB92,593.3 million)[102][106] - Gross profit rose to RMB36,640.1 million (2022: RMB32,689.8 million), with gross profit margin increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 37.2% (2022: 35.3%)[103][107] - Operating profit increased by 13.8% to RMB6,170.6 million (2022: RMB5,423.2 million), with operating profit margin rising by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% (2022: 5.9%)[109] - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 12.7% to RMB25,192.2 million (2022: RMB22,347.3 million), accounting for 25.5% of revenue (2022: 24.1%)[104][108] - Product and brand marketing expenses surged by 36.9% to RMB7,522.7 million (2022: RMB5,495.1 million), representing 7.6% of revenue (2022: 5.9%)[104][108] - Administrative expenses increased by 6.8% to RMB4,742.5 million (2022: RMB4,441.9 million), maintaining a flat percentage of revenue at 4.8%[105][108] - Total business operating expenses increased by 11.7% to RMB30,469.5 million (2022: RMB27,266.6 million), accounting for 30.9% of revenue (2022: 29.4%)[109] - EBITDA increased by 4.2% to RMB9,506.7 million, with EBITDA margin at 9.6%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[110] - Profit attributable to owners decreased by 9.3% to RMB4,809.2 million, with basic earnings per share down 9.1% to RMB1.220[110] - Income tax expenses increased by 8.2% to RMB1,425.2 million, with an effective tax rate of 22.6%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year[111] - Capital expenditure decreased by 17.8% to RMB4,171.8 million, with RMB4,134.7 million spent on production facilities and related investments[115] - Net cash inflow from operating activities increased by 0.2% to RMB8,349.3 million[116] - Net borrowings decreased to RMB24,967.0 million, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 73.9%, down from 78.1% in 2022[117] - Finance costs increased to RMB1,569.3 million, representing 1.6% of revenue, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[117] - Liquid milk revenue increased to RMB82,071.1 million, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue[123] - Revenue from the ice cream business amounted to RMB6,026.3 million, accounting for 6.1% of Mengniu's total revenue[135] - Revenue from the milk formula business was RMB3,801.7 million, representing 3.9% of Mengniu's total revenue[137] - Cheese business revenue reached RMB4,357.3 million, contributing 4.4% to Mengniu's total revenue[139] Production Capacity and Facilities - The Group's annual dairy production capacity reached 14.04 million tons as of December 31, 2023[2] - Mengniu built a fully intelligent Ningxia factory, allowing 100 people to produce an annual output of 1 million tons with a value of RMB10 billion[28] - Mengniu established a fully digitalized Ningxia factory with a capacity of 1 million tons and an output value of 10 billion yuan, marking a milestone in intelligent manufacturing[30] - Mengniu launched the world's first fully intelligent dairy factory in Ningxia, producing 1 million tons annually with a value of RMB10 billion, operated by only 100 people[97][100] - Mengniu's total annual production capacity increased to 14.04 million tons as of December 2023[142] - Mengniu expanded its production bases to include 45 in China, 2 in Indonesia, 2 in Australia, 1 in the Philippines, and 1 in New Zealand[142] - Mengniu's total production capacity reached 14.04 million tons in 2023, with 45 production bases in China and 6 overseas[146] - The Ningxia factory, a fully intelligent super factory, reduced energy consumption by 43% compared to conventional factories[148] Product Innovation and Development - Mengniu launched China's first liquid protein nutritional supplement, M-ACTION Sports Protein Drink, and independently developed human milk oligosaccharide (HMO)[9] - Mengniu's independently-developed human milk oligosaccharide (HMO) was approved by the National Health Commission, becoming the only domestic company among the first batch of approved enterprises in China[19] - Mengniu launched China's first liquid protein nutritional supplement drink under the brand M-ACTION, injecting new momentum into the Group's sustainable development[27] - Mengniu developed and commercially applied its proprietary "super ingredient" HMO (Human Milk Oligosaccharides), gaining a first-mover advantage in the nutrition frontier[30] - Mengniu successfully developed HMO (human milk oligosaccharide) and obtained approvals from Chinese regulatory authorities, becoming the first Chinese dairy company to achieve this milestone[82][84] - Mengniu launched Reeborne Enzhi series 4, the first milk formula product in China to use independently developed HMO and MLCT[82][84] - Mengniu introduced China's first liquid protein nutritional supplement, M-ACTION Sports Protein Drink, entering the sports nutrition market[85][86] - M-ACTION Sports Function Evaluation Center uses international advanced equipment to provide athletes with comprehensive testing and evaluation of sports biomechanics and physiology[85][86] - Mengniu launched a new lactose-free milk product under its parent brand in 2024 to cater to lactose-intolerant Chinese consumers[124] - Just Yoghurt launched an additive-free original flavor yogurt in 2024, featuring "zero artificial flavors, zero colorants, zero gelatin, zero milk powder" and certified by EU standards[127] - Fruit Milk Drink introduced a new series of milk tea drinks in 2024, including "Earl Gray Tea Flavor" and "Melon Oolong Flavor", with "zero added milk powder, zero added non-dairy creamer, and zero trans fatty acids"[129] - Mengniu enhanced its plain yogurt brand with the launch of Fresh Yogurt, emphasizing fresh milk sources, premium strains, and advanced processing methods[130] - YO!FINE DIARY, a premium yogurt brand, introduced Osmanthus and Water Chestnut Yogurt and Forest Avocado Yogurt, well-received by consumers[130] - Champion Jianzihao was repositioned as the "pioneer in Chinese healthcare yogurt" with products designed to boost immunity[130] - Yoyi C zero sucrose products, rich in live probiotics, promote intestinal motility and feature eco-friendly, label-free packaging[132] - Yoyi C launched a "Smooth" series with zero sucrose and zero fat, containing 5 strains of complex probiotics and 2 essential dietary fibers for intestinal health[132] - Shiny Meadow 4.0 Jersey fresh milk was launched, sourced from rare Jersey cattle accounting for only 1% of domestic stock[133] - Suibian Gold Label series introduced with high cocoa content (72% and 52%) and quality raw milk content (≥40%)[135] - Reeborne Enzhi series became the first in the world to add MLCT structured lipids[137] - Milkground launched Organic Cheese Sticks and premium leisure products like "Mousse Cheese Cup"[139] Market Share and Business Performance - Mengniu's market share in the liquid milk market continued to expand, with Milk Deluxe consistently increasing its brand equity and extending its lead in the high-end segment[25] - Mengniu's chilled-product business saw strong performance of new products, driving sales to grow against the trend and maintaining the market share first place for 19 consecutive years[25] - Mengniu's liquid milk market share continued to expand, with Milk Deluxe achieving double-digit growth in its organic series and further optimizing its product mix[44] - Mengniu's chilled product business achieved counter-cyclical growth, maintaining its market share leadership for the 19th consecutive year[57] - Mengniu's online membership exceeded 74 million, with steady growth in new retail channels and leading market share in home delivery services[55] - Mengniu's room temperature milk beverages recorded positive growth, with significant market share increases driven by new product launches[53] - Mengniu's room temperature business expanded to 26,000 townships, covering over 800,000 distribution points, enhancing market penetration in rural areas[55] - Mengniu ranked in the top eight of the 2023 "Global Dairy Top 20" list, solidifying its position as the youngest company in the global dairy industry's top ten[47] - Mengniu's room temperature pure milk sales outpaced industry growth, driven by consumer demand for nutritional health and immunity[52] - Mengniu's chilled probiotic drinks segment narrowed the gap with the leading brand, reinforcing its position as the second-largest brand in the segment[57] - Mengniu's room temperature yogurt brand, Just Yoghurt, launched a new plain yogurt meeting EU standards, emphasizing zero artificial additives[53] - Mengniu's room temperature business unit optimized its channel structure, with online sales growth solidifying its position as the top player in online sales within the room temperature product segment[55] - Yoyi C probiotic drinks adopted a proprietary probiotic strain tailored for the Chinese population, leading to significant growth in new product growth rate and improved profit structure[58][59] - Mengniu's chilled business achieved positive growth despite weak industry demand, maintaining the No.1 market share for 19 consecutive years[59] - Shiny Meadow, a high-end fresh milk brand, solidified its position as the market leader in the high-end fresh milk market, with Xiaoxianyu recording exceptional annual sales growth in the mid-to-high end fresh milk market[61][64] - Shiny Meadow upgraded to 4.0 fresh milk using 1nm micro-membrane freshness-locking technology, locking in 4.0g of fresh milk protein and preserving nutrients[62][64] - Mengniu's basic fresh milk consistently held the top market share in the basic fresh milk segment for three consecutive years[63][64] - Mengniu's fresh milk business maintained its leadership in both online and offline channels, ranking No.1 in market share at major retailers and e-commerce platforms[65] - Mengniu's domestic infant formula business focused on the Reeborne brand, with the Reeborne Enzhi series driving strong growth in online sales[67][68] - Bellamy's achieved strong growth in sales, maintaining its position as the No.1 cross-border e-commerce brand for organic milk formula[69] - Yourui's high-end adult milk formula products were upgraded with a new formula including whey protein, calcium citrate, MLCT, and a combination of vitamins and minerals[70] - Mengniu's ice cream business continued to innovate and upgrade its brands, exploring novel consumption scenarios and raising product influence and brand reputation[71] - Bellamy achieved strong sales growth by enhancing brand operations, price management, channel execution, and supply chain efficiency, maintaining its position as the top organic infant formula brand in cross-border e-commerce[72] - Bellamy expanded its product portfolio with new organic offerings, including walnut oil, flaxseed oil, and baby noodle series, while also expanding into new cross-border channels like Aiyingshi and Hema[72] - Suibian reinforced its leadership in the chocolate ice cream market with its billion-level bestseller, the Strawberry Soft Core Crispy Skin ice cream, and expanded its brand influence through collaborations with top IPs like Universal Studios[74] - Deluxe, Mengniu's premium brand, underwent a significant rebranding, focusing on purity and taste, and launched ten new products across three series, including cross-brand collaborations with Maotai[74] - The ice cream business division strengthened its store expansion and market coverage, focusing on key urban markets and accelerating expansion into county and township markets, leading to a year-on-year increase in end-market coverage[75] - Aice, Mengniu's overseas ice cream brand, ranked number one in market share in Indonesia and number three in the Philippines, with strong growth in overall sales revenue and profit margins[77] - Milkground continued to rank first in domestic cheese market share, launching new products like "Organic Cheese Sticks" and "Golden Cheese Sticks," and expanding into new product categories targeting urban white-collar workers and families[79] - Mengniu's cheese business focused on expanding into the catering sector, launching its first in-house produced light cream and pioneering the first domestically produced fermented butter in China[81] Sustainability and ESG - Mengniu's MSCI ESG rating was elevated to AA, making it the only comprehensive dairy company in China to achieve this rating[12] - Mengniu's MSCI ESG rating was upgraded to AA, the highest rating in the industry[18] - Mengniu adopted a series of measures under its "GREEN" sustainable development strategy, including signing up to join the global initiative to grow, restore and conserve one trillion trees with the World Economic Forum[29] - Mengniu received the highest "AA" rating among Chinese integrated dairy companies in the MSCI ESG rating[29] - Mengniu achieved an "AA" rating in MSCI ESG, the highest among Chinese dairy companies, reflecting its commitment to sustainability[30] - Mengniu implemented 15 specific carbon reduction measures as part of its "GREEN" sustainable development strategy[143] - Mengniu has planted 97 million trees in the Ulan Buh Desert, turning over 200 square kilometers of desert into an oasis[144] - Mengniu achieved a carbon reduction of more than 180,000 tons in its upstream pastures through various emission reduction measures[145] - Mengniu built 30 national-level green factories, with the Qujing factory achieving carbon neutrality for two consecutive years[148] - Mengniu launched a variety of carbon-neutral and green low-carbon products in the downstream market[149] - Mengniu's MSCI ESG rating was upgraded from A to AA, making it the only comprehensive dairy company in China with an AA rating[151] - Commitment to lead the dairy industry towards "carbon neutrality" under the "Greener" strategy[160] Digital Transformation and Innovation - The Group completed the construction of the world's first fully intelligent dairy factory and introduced MENGNIU.GPT and the "WOW Health+" platform[11] - Mengniu successfully released the world's first model focused on nutrition and health, MENGNIU.GPT, and implemented it in the digital intelligent nutrition and health management platform, WOW Health+[28] - Mengniu released MENGNIU.GPT, the world's first AI model focused on nutrition and health, integrated into its digital health management platform WOW Health+[30] - The company introduced the AI-driven digital intelligence dual flywheel strategy, upgrading digital capabilities across the supply and consumption chains[98][100] - Mengniu.GPT, the world's first nutrition and health model, was launched, alongside the "WOW Health+" platform, providing personalized health services[99][100] - Aim to achieve full digitalization across the entire industry chain from feeding to consumer terminals under the "Smarter" strategy[160] Corporate Governance and Leadership - Mr. Gao Fei, aged 47, was appointed as the CEO and executive director of the company on 26 March 2024, bringing extensive experience in sales, marketing, and business operations within the dairy industry[167] - Ms. Wang Yan, aged 45, was appointed as an executive director in December 2021, with a background in human resources management and talent development[168] - Mr. Zhang Ping, aged 59, served as an executive director from December 2021 to 26 March 2024, with over 33 years of experience in the fast-moving consumer goods industry, specializing in finance, audit, and risk control[169] - Mr. Chen Lang, aged 58, was appointed as a non-executive director and chairman of the board in April 2019, with a strong background in corporate leadership and strategy across various industries[171] - Mr. Wang Xi, aged 40, was appointed as a non-executive director in December 2021, with expertise in strategy, direct investment, and M&A, currently serving as the deputy director of the Strategy Department at COFCO Corporation[174] - Mr. Simon Dominic Stevens led the UK business of Arla Foods to grow from £500 million to £2.5 billion, achieving the No. 1 position in FMCG from No. 4 in dairy[176] - Mr. Simon Dominic Stevens successfully navigated the MENA business through COVID-19, delivering high growth for key brands and maintaining a safe environment for 3,000 employees[176] - Mr. Li Michael Hankin has over 30 years of experience in financial and accounting, fundraising, mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and international business development[179] - Mr. Li Michael Hankin served as an independent non-executive director of COFCO Joycome Foods Limited, where COFCO Corporation holds a 29.10% interest[179] - Mr. Li Michael Hankin has held key positions in several Hong Kong-listed companies, including GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and Newton Resources Limited[179] - Mr. Luo Yan, aged 62, is currently a vice president and the head of chilled product business unit and fresh milk business unit of the Group, with 30 years of experience in the food industry[186][187] - Mr. Yan Zhiyuan, aged 41, is currently a vice president and the head of milk formula business unit, leading the room temperature sales management team to achieve continuous high growth in sales revenue and market share[188][189] - Mr. Han Jianjun, aged 50, is currently a vice president and the head of the ice product business unit of the Group, leading the ice products business unit to achieve growth of over 100% for three consecutive years[190] - Mr. Zhao Jiejun, aged 47, is currently a vice president and the head of milk sourcing and animal husbandry industry chain business unit of the Group, with almost 20 years of experience in dairy industry[191] - Mr. Wen Yongping, aged 49, is the Vice President and Head of Research and Development and Innovation at the Group, with extensive experience in production and operations management, milk sources management, and core business operation management[192][194] - Mr. Yang Zhigang,

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.62, based on a current price of HKD 17.32 [1]. Core Views - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of RMB 98.62 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an operating profit of RMB 6.17 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.489 per share, with a payout ratio of 40% for the year [2]. - The liquid milk segment showed steady growth, with revenue of RMB 82.1 billion (+4.9%), while ice cream and cheese segments saw significant increases in revenue, with cheese revenue soaring by 230% due to the consolidation of Miaokelando [2]. - The decline in raw milk prices has improved profit margins, with a gross margin of 37.2%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit margin increased to 6.3%, a rise of 0.4 percentage points [2]. - The new president, Gao Fei, is expected to lead the company towards continued improvement in profitability, supported by a favorable raw milk price environment and product structure optimization [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Mengniu Dairy achieved a total revenue of RMB 98.62 billion, with a growth rate of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.81 billion, reflecting a decline of 9.31% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 1.22 [3][11]. - Forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of RMB 5.50 billion, RMB 6.00 billion, and RMB 6.52 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.40, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.66 [2][3]. Segment Analysis - Liquid Milk: Revenue is expected to grow at rates of 4%, 3%, and 2.8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by market share expansion and product optimization [7]. - Ice Cream: Anticipated revenue growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026, supported by new consumption scenarios and innovative products [7]. - Cheese: Revenue growth is projected at 18%, 15%, and 12% for the same period, with Miaokelando maintaining a leading market share [7]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 14 times for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 21.62, maintaining the "Buy" rating based on expected improvements in operating profit margins [2][8].

研究报告Research Report 2 Apr 2024 蒙牛乳业 China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) 2023 年业绩点评：OPM 提升稳定兑现，非经常性损益使净利波动 OPM Increased Steadily, and One-Time Profit and Loss Made Net Profit Fluctuate [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Table_Info] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 维持优于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 事件：2023年公司营收986.2亿元，同比+6.5%（内生+2.6% ）；经 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 营利润61.7亿元，同比+13.8%；归母净利润48.1亿元，同比-9.3%。 现价 HK$16.80 2023H2 营收 475.1 亿元，同比+5.9%（内生+2.3%）；经营利润 29.0 目标价 HK$29.80 亿元，同比-0.3%；归母净利润17. 9亿元，同比+15.3%。 HTI ESG 2. ...

公司研究 | 动态跟踪 蒙牛乳业 02319.HK 液奶稳健增长，持续受益原奶成本下行与 买入（维持） 产品结构升级 股价（2024年04月02日） 17.32港元 目标价格 25.42港元 52周最高价/最低价 33.41/16港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 393,529/393,529 H股市值（百万港币） 68,159 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 核心业绩表现：公司近期发布2023年业绩公告，2023年实现营收986.24亿元 报告发布日期 2024年04月03日 （yoy+6.5%），实现归母净利润48.09亿元（yoy-9.3%）。2023年，公司毛利率 为37.2%（yoy+1.85pct），主要系原奶价格同比下降，产品结构同比提升。公司销 1周 1月 3月 12月 售费用率为25.5%（yoy+1.4pct），主要由于线下销售推广执行活动增加所致。 绝对表现% -8.65 -11.9 -12.79 -45.43 2023年公司应占联营公司业绩为0.91亿元，同比-78%。 相对表现% -10.53 -13.96 -13.64 -28.43 ⚫ 液态奶市场份额持续扩张，夯实高 ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 食品饮料行业 ＃02319 .HK ＃蒙dy牛Com乳pa业ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） dyStockco ＃inve 买stSu 入ggest ion＃ ( i维nv＃ e持stS ） d e＃ 新消 费趋 势引领产＃品tit创le＃新 ，营收稳健增长 uggesti onC han ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 28日 ge＃ 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 司 ⚫ 营收稳健增长。2023年，公司营收为986.24亿元，同比增长6.5%，增速 日期 2024.03.28 跟 同比+1.5pcts。其中液态奶营收820.71亿元，同比增长4.9%，占比83.2%， 收盘价（港元） 16.80 同比-1.3pcts。冰淇淋营收60.26亿元，同比增长6.6%，占比6.1%，同比 踪 总股本（亿股） 39.35 +0.01pcts。奶粉营收38.02亿元，同比减少1.6%，占比3.9%，同比-0.3pcts。 报 总市值（亿港元） 661.13 奶酪营收为43.57亿元，占比4.4%，同比+3.0pct ...

2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 蒙牛乳业（2319.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 平稳收官，提高分红 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 蒙牛2023年收入986亿/+6.5%，经营利润61亿/+6.3%，经营利润率同比提升0.4pct， 完成年初目标。净利润48.8亿/-5.7%。公司变更总裁，但是表明战略目标不变，同 目标价格： 27.2 元 时提高了派息率至40%。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别为53.9/59/63亿人民币， 现价(2024-3-28)： 16.8港元 对应EPS为1.47/1.61/1.73港元。维持“买入”评级，目标价为27.2港元，较当 前股价有62%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 液态奶平稳增长，结构持续升级。23年液态奶收入820亿/+4.9%，经营利润61亿， 流通市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 利润率7.5%/+0.2pct。特仑苏份额持续提升，有机系列双位数增长，品类结构持续 总股本(百万股) 3,935.29 优化。常温酸奶仍然承压，乳饮料基本持平。低温酸奶实现逆势增长，继续蝉联市 流通股本(百万股) 3,935.29 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 蒙牛（2319.HK）：基本面保持稳健，但管理层 林闻嘉 浦 变动或造成短期市场情绪波动 首席消费分析师 银 richard_lin@spdbi.com 蒙牛未来的收入增长面临行业需求放缓、原奶供大于求、行业竞争加 (852) 2808 6433 国 剧等挑战。而公司刚刚公布的重大管理层变动很可能在短期带来较为 际 低迷的市场情绪，并导致蒙牛短期估值承压。然而，基于蒙牛在液态 桑若楠，CFA 奶赛道较强的产品研发和创新能力，我们持续看好公司长期的发展潜 消费分析师 力以及对行业的整合能力。我们预测公司未来利润率持续扩张，将驱 serena_sang@spdbi.com 动蒙牛 2023-2026年归母净利润复合增长 14%左右。基于 14 x 2024 P/E (852) 2808 6439 公 （1.0x PEG），我们下调蒙牛目标价至 21.1 港元，并维持“买入”评级。 2024年3月27日 司 研  管理层变动不改长期发展战略与运营能力：蒙牛昨晚公告称卢敏放卸 究 任公司 CEO一职，升任为蒙牛董事会副主席（主席为陈朗），但会继 评级 续担任蒙牛执行董事。蒙牛原 ...

2024年3月29日 公司研究 顺利收官，经营稳健 ——蒙牛乳业（2319.HK）2023 年年报点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：16.80港元 事件：蒙牛乳业发布2023年年报，2023年全年实现营业收入986.24亿元，同 比增加6.51%，归母净利润48.09亿元，同比减少9.31%。23H2实现营业收入 475.06亿元，同比增加5.87%，归母净利润17.89亿元，同比增加15.28%。 作者 液态奶业务增势稳健，奶粉业务持续调整。分产品看，2023全年液态奶/冰淇淋 分析师：叶倩瑜 /奶粉/奶酪产品/其他乳制品实现营业收入820.71/60.26/38.02/43.57/23.68亿 执业证书编号：S0930517100003 021-52523657 元，分别同比+4.9%/+6.6%/-1.6%/+229.8%/-32.1%。其中奶酪产品收入同比 yeqianyu@ebscn.com 增速较大，主要系公司于2022年12月将妙可蓝多纳入并表范围。液态奶业务： 分析师：陈彦彤 常温液态奶业务收入增势良好，产品结构持续优化。高端有机系列收入同比实现 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月28日 港元17.08 港元21.50↓ +25.9% 蒙牛乳业 (2319 HK) 行业逆风中自强不息，继续增长  受非经营项目影响，2023 年利润未达一致性预期：蒙牛 2023 年销售额同比增 个股评级 长 6.5%（符合预期），净利润同比下降 9.3%至 48.09 亿元人民币（比一致性 预期低 14%）。由于原奶成本下降，毛利率上升 185 个基点至 37.2%，致经营 买入 利润率上升 40 个基点（公司指引为 50 个基点）至 6.3%，但非经营性费用 （如 3.23 亿人民币的奶粉库存冲销）、联营公司利润同比下降 78%（中国现 1年股价表现 代牧业/圣牧 2023 年净利润同比下降 68%/79%）和减值导致净利润率下降 85 个基点至 4.9%。派息率从 30% 上升至 40%。 2319 HK 恒生指数 10%  按品类划分：液态奶（尤其是特仑苏、低温酸奶和高端鲜奶）强韧，奶酪转 0% 趋稳定，其他（冰淇淋、奶粉）疲软：液态奶/冰淇淋/奶粉/奶酪/其他（包括 -10% -20% Burra Foods）销售额同比增 ...