蒙牛乳业回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.04.29 | 20.00 | 19.200 | 18.940 | 380.77 | | 2025.04.25 | 20.00 | 19.300 | 19.160 | 384.95 | | 2025.04.24 | 20.00 | 19.200 | 19.120 | 383.37 | | 2025.04.22 | 30.00 | 19.300 | 19.100 | 576.50 | | 2025.04.17 | 20.00 | 19.500 | 19.460 | 389.57 | | 2025.04.08 | 15.00 | 18.900 | 18.700 | 282.25 | | 2025.04.07 | 80.00 | 17.980 | 17.640 | 1428.82 | | 2025.01.16 | 46.00 | 14.980 | 14.860 | 687.67 | | 2025.01.10 | 1 ...

ANNUAL REPORT 年 報 2024 Annual Report 2024 年報 CORPORATE PROFILE 公司簡介 China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (the "Company"; stock code: 2319) and its subsidiaries (collectively the "Group" or "Mengniu") mainly manufacture and distribute quality dairy products in China. It is one of the leading dairy product manufacturers in China, with MENGNIU as its core brand. Mengniu offers diversified products including liquid milk products, ice cream, milk formula and cheese. Mengniu ranked ninth in the 2024 "Global Dairy ...

金十数据4月23日讯，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，预计蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)今年需求不振的情况或将 持续，而新产品亦需要时间带动增长，将集团明年的销售预测下调2%，即今明两年销售分别增长1%及 4%。大摩续指，在去年较高的基础上，将今年集团营业利润率预测上调0.4个百分点，并将明年预测年 上调0.5个百分点。另外，该行上调今明两年的每股盈测7%和9%，又预测2027年的每股盈利为1.72元人 民币，目标价由20港元调升至22.5港元，维持"增持"评级。 大摩升蒙牛(02319.HK)目标价至22.5港元 上调盈测 ...

研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 蒙牛乳业 China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) 供给去化，周期反转 Supply is dwindling and the cycle is about to reverse OPM 提升逐年兑现，重视股东回报。公司盈利能力逐年向好，24 年 /2024H1/2024H2 公司经营利润率同比+1.9/+0.6/+3.3pct，OPM 超预期。公 司于 2022 年-2024 年 OPM 分别提升 34/40/193 基点，持续兑现每年提升 30-50 基点的指引。同时公司注重股东回报，24 年公司将剔除贝拉米相关 减值净影响 39.8 亿、以及现代牧业商誉减值影响 3.5 亿后的利润作为分红 基础，并提升 2024 年分红比例至 45%，同比提升 5pct。公司 2024 年派发 期末股息每股普通股人民币 0.509 元，合计拟派发现金股利约 20 亿元。 24 年资本开支 35.8 亿元，同比-14%。随资本支出减少，我们认为未来派 息率仍存在扩大空间。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 ...

香港交易所信息显示，贝莱德在蒙牛乳业的持股比例于4月10日从4.99%升至5.01%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - In 2024, the company faced revenue pressure due to demand constraints, but benefited from declining milk prices and efficient expense management, leading to an unexpected improvement in operating profit margins. The company has addressed its balance sheet issues by recognizing impairments related to goodwill and losses from associates [6] - For 2025, the company plans to optimize its supply chain to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, while also focusing on high-end product strategies and precise marketing. A slight revenue recovery is anticipated, with stable operating profit margins [6] - The dairy industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2025, following a period of competitive pressure and excess supply in 2024, which should help the company emerge from its low point [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 886.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8%. Adjusted for goodwill impairment and losses from associates, the net profit was RMB 44.35 billion, a decrease of 7.8% [5][6] - The operating profit for 2024 was RMB 72.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 8.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.509 per share, totaling RMB 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [5] Industry Outlook - The liquid milk segment continues to face demand constraints, with revenues declining by 11.0% in 2024. However, the ice cream segment showed a revenue increase of 18.0% [5] - The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize as supply-side adjustments continue and policy measures boost demand [6] - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the cheese market, focusing on product innovation and brand leadership [5][6]

华西证券（002926）此前指出，考虑到婴幼儿食用奶粉等方面的需求，我们认为生育提振将促进乳品消 费，利好乳业发展。此外，我们认为应注意到政府补贴在乳品消费中的促进作用。根据乳业时报引用内 蒙古呼和浩特市卫健委文件显示，在发布育儿补贴政策当天，该部门同时发布《产妇"一杯奶"生育关怀 行动实施细则及服务流程》，明确对产妇提供为期一年的"一杯奶"补贴活动，审核通过后将发放3000元 电子券（伊利公司和蒙牛公司各1500元）。该行认为乳品作为营养丰富的健康食品，受众广（包含婴幼 儿与产妇），易接受，有望成为政府推进消费的有力抓手。 乳业股涨今日普涨，截至发稿，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨4.21%，报20.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨3.67%，报 1.13港元；中国飞鹤(06186)涨2.8%，报6.62港元；优然牧业(09858)涨2.37%，报2.59港元。 消息面上，国家医保局发布公告称，为加强生育保险的社会保障作用，深化"三医"联动改革，不断创新 和完善我国生育保障制度，进一步提升生育保险管理及服务能力和水平，支撑健康中国建设，经国家医 疗保障局同意，中国医疗保险研究会理事会审议通过，决定成立中国医疗保 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 50.85 billion, 56.38 billion, and 60.58 billion respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 886.75 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion, down 97.83% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 per share, totaling 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to impairment losses related to Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, which impacted profits significantly [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other businesses was 730.66 billion, 51.75 billion, 33.20 billion, 43.20 billion, and 27.94 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.97%, -14.12%, -12.66%, -0.86%, and +17.99% [3]. - The second half of 2024 showed improvements with liquid milk and milk powder revenue declines narrowing, while ice cream and cheese businesses experienced growth [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw milk prices [4]. - The net profit margin was 0.12%, a decrease of 4.76 percentage points, primarily due to significant impairment losses [4]. Strategic Positioning - The company is leveraging its channel advantages and rapidly iterating new products to meet diverse consumer needs, positioning itself for recovery in the liquid milk segment [5]. - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the medium to long term due to its leading channel advantages and swift product innovation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 886.75 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, down 97.83% year-on-year [1]. - The liquid milk business is showing signs of improvement, with revenue from various product categories such as liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other dairy products experiencing different levels of growth and decline [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling raw milk prices and improved profitability across multiple product categories [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024, excluding certain impairments, was 44.35 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 886.75 billion CNY in 2024, down from 986.24 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of -10.09% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.05 billion CNY, a significant drop from 4.81 billion CNY in 2023, resulting in a net profit growth rate of -97.83% [5]. Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue was 730.66 billion CNY, down 11.0% year-on-year, while ice cream and milk powder revenues decreased by 14.1% and 12.7%, respectively [2]. - Cheese revenue showed an increase of 18.0%, indicating a positive trend in this category [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin improved to 39.57% in 2024, up 2.42 percentage points from the previous year, driven by lower raw milk prices [3]. - The operating profit margin for 2024 was reported at 8.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 50.91 billion CNY for 2025, 52.92 billion CNY for 2026, and 55.75 billion CNY for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.35, and 1.42 CNY [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 for 2025, indicating a stable valuation for a leading dairy company [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Hold" for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to fluctuate within ±5% of the benchmark [15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 886.75 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8% year-on-year [2]. - The second half of 2024 saw weak demand in the dairy industry, leading to revenue pressure across various business segments, with liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese revenues showing year-on-year changes of -9.0%, +5.0%, -11.7%, and +5.0% respectively [4]. - The decline in raw milk prices improved the gross margin, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% for the year. Despite cost-cutting measures, the overall expense ratio slightly increased due to revenue decline [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2024, excluding the impact of impairments related to Bellamy and deferred tax [4]. - For 2025, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth, with milk prices remaining stable or slightly declining, and aims for a steady operating profit margin improvement of 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 910 billion, RMB 943 billion, and RMB 986 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +4%, and +5% [5]. - The projected net profits for the same years are RMB 49.53 billion, RMB 54.80 billion, and RMB 64.26 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +4639%, +11%, and +17% respectively [5]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 14, and 12 times respectively [5].